Mathis Rowan and his role in the next book

[ironhandbywater]

Hello everyone long time reader first time poster.

There is a lot of talk in the next book about where Aegon's allies are going to come from and how a member of the GC says that they have 'friends in the Reach'.

I believe that there is a strong chance they are talking about one of the most powerful Lords: Matthis Rowan.

My evidence is wholly circumstantial but so is almost everyone else's as we know so little about the Lords Redwyne, Tarly and Rowan and even less about Hightower.

Early in ASS there is a small council meeting where the victors of the Blackwater divide up the spoils. Matthis is present. The impending arrival of the Red Viper is discussed and Tywin proposes to handle the matter of justice for the murder of Elia and the children with a small lie to deflect blame from the mountain (he later says to Tyrion that he will blame all the deaths on Ser Amory Lorch). Tyrion notices that Lord Redwyne does not care but that Lord Rowan 'looks fit to gag'

Throughout the books Kevan and Jaime both say that Lord Rowan is an honourable, intelligent and prudent man.

And where is Lord Rowan right now? Why he is besieging Storm's End of course! he has done this before being part of the Tyrell host that dipped its banners to Lord Stark believing their cause lost. What happens now if his almost certainly numerically inferior force and certainly inferior in quality force is surrounded by the Golden Company. Is it not reasonable that he will not fight but instead turn his cloak and declare for the Targaryens? He was fit to gag over the murder of Aegon now facing a battle he cannot win or to pledge loyalty to a true king which shall he choose?

There is one piece of evidence against this. In the Arianne reading that has not been written down it is said that the taking of Storm's End was done at great cost. I believe this could be disinformation on behalf of the GC (not letting the Tyrell's know they have lost a bannerman) or possibly that Stannis' small garrison sold their lives dearly.

What does everyone thing? Lord Rowan bending the knee to Aegon?

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

There has been much speculation on this very subject. I would just like to add a few points.

1. The Reach was the most loyal region to House Targaryen, aside from the Crownlands and Dorne. It makes perfect sense that Targaryen loyalists would still persist.

2. Everyone thinks highly of Lord Mathis, and for good reason. Ser Kevan wanted him as Hand of the King and it was Lord Mathis who counseled Renly to bypass Stannis and head straight for King's Landing.

3. Lord Mathis being fit to gag is being misread just a bit. It shows that he is honorable and despises the lie that Lord Tywin is prepared to serve what he thinks will be Prince Doran arriving in King's Landing. It is not necessarily a predictor of him bending the knee to Aegon.

4. We know that Lord Connington's plan to take Storm's End was successful. We also know it was a bloody affair. This could mean several things. Lord Mathis was likely commanding no more than a skeleton siege force of 500-1000 men. Connington and the GC not only have a superior force, but will also have the element of surprise. Hopefully, Lord Mathis survived the attack. My own thoughts are that the Storm's End garrison was slaughtered.

5. From spoiler chapters we know that a Tyrell invasion force is heading for the Stormlands and I think Randyll Tarly is leading it. We also that Lord Connington is likely preparing a nasty trap with elephants being seen in the Rainwood. I think Connigton will defeat and capture Lord Randyll.

Additionally, Lord Tarly was one of the most loyal soldiers to Aerys and has been mentioned as a possible friend from the Reach. He inflicted the only real defeat on Robert Baratheon and afterwards cut off the head of Lord Caffron and sent it to Aerys.

6. To sum it all up, if Lord Mathis is alive, I think he will meet with Both Aegon and Connington to discuss the condition of the realm. Lord Mathis will see the mismanagement of his liege lord and the brutality of the Lannisters, and compare it to the idea of having the son of Rhaegar Targaryen on the throne (supposed son).

Lord Mathis will ultimately read the tea leaves and join Aegon, but not for personal gain per se. His decision will be based largely on the state of the realm and will likely be conditioned on no harm coming to the Tyrells. Additionally, I think Lord Mathis will help to convince Lord Tarly to join Aegon, should he survive the battle.

[Minstral]

I'll throw a topic I made a some time ago, as there is some relevance (and its easier than re-typing it).

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/80780-tyrell-loyalty-to-the-mad-king/

1. The Reach was the most loyal region to House Targaryen, aside from the Crownlands and Dorne. It makes perfect sense that Targaryen loyalists would still persist.

I would argue that the Reach probably does have a good number of lords that would prefer a Targ king, but I disagree that it is a loyal region. Rather I would think that this particular Kingdom has some of most fractured loyalty to a single house than any region. The Blackfyre's drew a much of their support from the Reach in their war, and a number of Lords went to Stannis after the death of Renly. Had there not been a quick response by the Tyrell's and Lannisters there may have been more sooner or later.

Edit: but yes you due make some good observations of Rowan.

[Sordelor]

There has been much speculation on this very subject. I would just like to add a few points.

1. The Reach was the most loyal region to House Targaryen, aside from the Crownlands and Dorne. It makes perfect sense that Targaryen loyalists would still persist.

2. Everyone thinks highly of Lord Mathis, and for good reason. Ser Kevan wanted him as Hand of the King and it was Lord Mathis who counseled Renly to bypass Stannis and head straight for King's Landing.

3. Lord Mathis being fit to gag is being misread just a bit. It shows that he is honorable and despises the lie that Lord Tywin is prepared to serve what he thinks will be Prince Doran arriving in King's Landing. It is not necessarily a predictor of him bending the knee to Aegon.

4. We know that Lord Connington's plan to take Storm's End was successful. We also know it was a bloody affair. This could mean several things. Lord Mathis was likely commanding no more than a skeleton siege force of 500-1000 men. Connington and the GC not only have a superior force, but will also have the element of surprise. Hopefully, Lord Mathis survived the attack. My own thoughts are that the Storm's End garrison was slaughtered.

5. From spoiler chapters we know that a Tyrell invasion force is heading for the Stormlands and I think Randyll Tarly is leading it. We also that Lord Connington is likely preparing a nasty trap with elephants being seen in the Rainwood. I think Connigton will defeat and capture Lord Randyll.

Additionally, Lord Tarly was one of the most loyal soldiers to Aerys and has been mentioned as a possible friend from the Reach. He inflicted the only real defeat on Robert Baratheon and afterwards cut off the head of Lord Caffron and sent it to Aerys.

6. To sum it all up, if Lord Mathis is alive, I think he will meet with Both Aegon and Connington to discuss the condition of the realm. Lord Mathis will see the mismanagement of his liege lord and the brutality of the Lannisters, and compare it to the idea of having the son of Rhaegar Targaryen on the throne (supposed son).

Lord Mathis will ultimately read the tea leaves and join Aegon, but not for personal gain per se. His decision will be based largely on the state of the realm and will likely be conditioned on no harm coming to the Tyrells. Additionally, I think Lord Mathis will help to convince Lord Tarly to join Aegon, should he survive the battle.

I don't think it will be that hard to convince Randyll to side with Aegon.

Mathis and Randyll are 2 of the best bannerman Mace has, so the Tyrells will have lost a lot.

Btw, isn't Mathis married with a cousin of Mace?

[Lord Varys]

I suggested this whole thing first shortly after ADwD came out.

Stallion's objections may turn out to be void if it will turn out that Lord Mathis is actually one of the friends in the Reach the Golden Company is supposed to have. Then there won't be a battle between his Reach men and Aegon and the Golden Company.

Mathis's expression when the murder of the Targaryen children is discussed may very well be a hint that he is one of the stalwart Targaryen loyalists among the Lords of the Reach. It's clear that the present Tyrells, Hightowers, and Redwynes have a much more pragmatic/opportunistic take on this subject (which is demonstrated by Lady Olenna's discussion of her Targaryen betrothal, the plotting of the Tyrells with Renly and the Lannisters, and the fact that Mace does not exactly consider both Aegon or Daenerys as his rightful liege lord in the end of ADwD).

As to Stallion's assumption that Randyll Tarly is a Targaryen loyalist or was loyal to Aerys in the past: There is no quote that supports this theory. Randyll won a victory over Robert during the Rebellion, yes, but he did so because he commanded the vanguard of his liege lord's army. He did as he was commanded by his rightful overlord. There has been no hint whatsoever that Randyll felt any personal obligation towards House Targaryen or the king.

The interpretation that Randyll's doubt about the identity of Jon Connington and the intentions of the Golden Company may merely indicate that Connington's and Haldon's disinformation campaign actually works. Randyll Tarly is not exactly the subtlest guy under the sun (GRRM indicated as much in AFfC). But it's even more likely that Mace and Tarly merely downplayed the threat Aegon and the Golden Company pose to put more pressure on Ser Kevan. If the false dragon is put down, they will do it. They have the men, Kevan had too few. And it's obvious that Mace is using the Golden Company crisis to try to ensure that his daughter acquitted.

Back to the main topic:

Mathis Rowan is the best candidate in my opinion for a powerful Targaryen loyalist in the Reach. Either he is one of the friends of the Golden Company - which I doubt - or he will join Aegon VI immediately after he learns that he is in charge of the Golden Company. Mathis is old enough to know Jon Connington, so there won't be any problem there.

One of the real friends of the Golden Company in the Reach may turn out to be Lord Orton Merryweather and his wife Lady Taena. Orton went into exile with his grandfather, Lord Owen. That's were he met Taena. It's not impossible that he, too, rode with the Golden Company before he was allowed to return. And if Orton - and especially Taena - were actually acting on behalf of Varys in AFfC a lot of things would make much more sense. It's quite obvious that Taena's actions weakened both the Tyrells and the Lannisters. If she was merely trying to advance her own house one would expect that she had chosen one of the two queens for real (as Qyburn did, for instance). Instead it seems as if she was trying play both Margaery and Cersei, and this could only lead to ruin if she had not a powerful ally (or a secret mission/agenda) of her own.

The fact that Taena escapes the High Septon is also fishy, as is the fact that Orton does not try to seize power when he can. He was Hand of the King and Master of Laws when Cersei was imprisoned. If this whole thing was an ambitious grab for power I'd have expected that he would have abandoned Cersei and to save Margaery to get into the good graces of the Tyrells before Randyll Tarly or Mace could return to KL with their armies. That way he might have been able to deliver all the power in the Realm to House Tyrell while keeping a good share of the power for himself (the office of Hand and/or of Master of Laws). He could have forced Pycelle and Swyft to name Mace Lord Regent instead of Kevan. Instead, he and Taena fled KL altogether. This makes little sense from a power-grabbing POV. Especially since their castle and lands lie within the Reach. They cannot escape the wrath of House Tyrell by going home!

But if they know something about Aegon and the things to come this may actually turn out to be a smart move. Destabilizing the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is not that big a deal if you expect your rightful king and queen in the near future, at the head of a vast army and accompanied by three dragons...

As to Mathis's role in the next book: I expect him to join Aegon's Small Council at Storm's End, perhaps in the role of Master of Coin or Master of Laws. His defection to Aegon may mark the beginning of the end for Tommen/Myrcella. He is such a well-respected and influential man that at least a third, perhaps even half of the Lords of the Reach may declare for Aegon. In connection with the Martells this should give Aegon the numbers to attack and take KL as early as the second half of ADwD. There has to be some time for character development and stuff before Dany comes to Westeros (Illyrio has to travel to Westeros, Jon has to start the Greyscale epidemic, Aegon has to choose a bride that is not Daenerys etc.).

[Minstral]

As to Stallion's assumption that Randyll Tarly is a Targaryen loyalist or was loyal to Aerys in the past: There is no quote that supports this theory. Randyll won a victory over Robert during the Rebellion, yes, but he did so because he commanded the vanguard of his liege lord's army. He did as he was commanded by his rightful overlord. There has been no hint whatsoever that Randyll felt any personal obligation towards House Targaryen or the king.

The interpretation that Randyll's doubt about the identity of Jon Connington and the intentions of the Golden Company may merely indicate that Connington's and Haldon's disinformation campaign actually works. Randyll Tarly is not exactly the subtlest guy under the sun (GRRM indicated as much in AFfC). But it's even more likely that Mace and Tarly merely downplayed the threat Aegon and the Golden Company pose to put more pressure on Ser Kevan. If the false dragon is put down, they will do it. They have the men, Kevan had too few. And it's obvious that Mace is using the Golden Company crisis to try to ensure that his daughter acquitted.

Sorry to go a bit off topic with this, but after the battle of Ashford he made sure to send the head of Lord Cafferen, an initial loyalits that switched to Robert, to Aerys.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I'll throw a topic I made a some time ago, as there is some relevance (and its easier than re-typing it).

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/80780-tyrell-loyalty-to-the-mad-king/

I would argue that the Reach probably does have a good number of lords that would prefer a Targ king, but I disagree that it is a loyal region. Rather I would think that this particular Kingdom has some of most fractured loyalty to a single house than any region. The Blackfyre's drew a much of their support from the Reach in their war, and a number of Lords went to Stannis after the death of Renly. Had there not been a quick response by the Tyrell's and Lannisters there may have been more sooner or later.

Edit: but yes you due make some good observations of Rowan.

I stand by my assertion that House Targaryen could count on the Reach.

1. Daemon Blackfyre rallied half the realm to his cause, but I doubt he got many of the major lords to join him. I highly doubt the Tyrells, Tarlys, Hightowers, Redwynes, Rowans or Oakhearts joined in.

2. The same goes for Stannis. He got the Florents and some of the Fossawys, but none of the true heavy hitters.

3. The region has been incredibly loyal to the Tyrells considering that Aegon I raised well above their station. Only the Florents fought the Tyrells on the point.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Sorry to go a bit off topic with this, but after the battle of Ashford he made sure to send the head of Lord Cafferen, an initial loyalits that switched to Robert, to Aerys.

A point I initially raised, but Lord Varys seemed to have glossed over. To me, that act spells loyalty and devotion.

[Lord Varys]

Yeah, well, he and his liege lord were fighting for Aerys. And he is not a forgiving type. But he himself seems to have not all that much honor (or, say, loyalty/principles). He went along with Mace's Renly idea (i.e. he declared himself for a traitor and usurper), then switched from Renly to Joffrey, and subsequently to Tommen.

He is pragmatic and opportunistic, like most of the more powerful lords in the Reach.

As to the Targaryen loyalty of the Tyrells and/or the Reach lords over the centuries. We don't know if they were more or less loyal than, say, the Lords of the West, Vale, North, or Riverlands. We can expect that every major civil war (the Dance, the first Blackfyre Rebellion, Robert's Rebellion) split most of the Realm in two. That's why they were major civil wars. Although we have reason to believe that many of the powerful houses of the series either joined the winning team, kept a foot in both sides, or distanced themselves early enough from the losing side to survive and keep their wealth and power. Some greater houses of the Reach did not (for instance, House Osgrey).

There were Hightowers in both camps during the first Blackfyre Rebellion, and we have all reason to believe that House Hightower was among the principal supporters of Aegon II during the first Dance of the Dragons. Choosing a dragon may bite you the ass just as well as choosing a dragon over a stag (or a stag over a dragon, or a stag over a 'stag').

And we also don't know if the Tyrells were really in control of the Reach for most of the time they held Highgarden. Right now they are heavily intermarried with the Redwynes and Hightowers, but my guess is that this a recent development (happened in the last century or so). I'd not be surprised if the first Tyrells were in Lords of the Reach de iure only.

The reason for the Tyrell/Reach loyalty to Aerys during the War of the Usurper most likely is that they did not see the point in joining Robert. They could not win anything by declaring for him, he had nothing to offer them, and in the beginning it did not look as if he could win. Later on the Tyrells successfully kept the Reach mostly out of the war. There were some Reach men with Rhaegar at the Trident, but his men were mostly from the Crownlands, the Riverlands, and Dorne.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Yeah, well, he and his liege lord were fighting for Aerys. And he is not a forgiving type. But he himself seems to have not all that much honor (or, say, loyalty/principles). He went along with Mace's Renly idea (i.e. he declared himself for a traitor and usurper), then switched from Renly to Joffrey, and subsequently to Tommen.

He is pragmatic and opportunistic, like most of the more powerful lords in the Reach.

As to the Targaryen loyalty of the Tyrells and/or the Reach lords over the centuries. We don't know if they were more or less loyal than, say, the Lords of the West, Vale, North, or Riverlands. We can expect that every major civil war (the Dance, the first Blackfyre Rebellion, Robert's Rebellion) split most of the Realm in two. That's why they were major civil wars. Although we have reason to believe that many of the powerful houses of the series either joined the winning team, kept a foot in both sides, or distanced themselves early enough from the losing side to survive and keep their wealth and power. Some greater houses of the Reach did not (for instance, House Osgrey).

There were Hightowers in both camps during the first Blackfyre Rebellion, and we have all reason to believe that House Hightower was among the principal supporters of Aegon II during the first Dance of the Dragons. Choosing a dragon may bite you the ass just as well as choosing a dragon over a stag (or a stag over a dragon, or a stag over a 'stag').

And we also don't know if the Tyrells were really in control of the Reach for most of the time they held Highgarden. Right now they are heavily intermarried with the Redwynes and Hightowers, but my guess is that this a recent development (happened in the last century or so). I'd not be surprised if the first Tyrells were in Lords of the Reach de iure only.

The reason for the Tyrell/Reach loyalty to Aerys during the War of the Usurper most likely is that they did not see the point in joining Robert. They could not win anything by declaring for him, he had nothing to offer them, and in the beginning it did not look as if he could win. Later on the Tyrells successfully kept the Reach mostly out of the war. There were some Reach men with Rhaegar at the Trident, but his men were mostly from the Crownlands, the Riverlands, and Dorne.

1. He did not send the head to Mace, but he did respect his liege lord by allowing him to claim his glory. This is a narrow man, but shrewd. He acted in the proper order of precedence. Head to Aerys and battle to Mace. He sent no heads to Joffery.

From what we have seen, houses typically follow their liege lords first, and Stannis' letter to the realm did raise legitimate (true) doubts about Joffery's paternity.

2. The West followed Tywin and did not participate. The entire North followed Ned. Half of the Stormlands, Vale, and Riverlands defied their liege lords and remained with Aerys. All of the Reach, Dorne, and the Crownlands remained loyal to Aerys. Every rebellion is in and of itself.

Daemon Blackfyre was a special case, as he was the king's hand picked choice to succeed him, despite not having the right. Aegon the Unworthy also spread a lie that King Daeron was not his true son, and the court was unhappy at the Dornish influence the king adopted. Additionally, I doubt any of the major Reach lords joined Daemon, else they likely would not be major lords now.

During the War on the Ninepenny Kings, the realm was quite united in crushing Maelys the Monstrous.

3. As to House Hightower during the Blackfyre Rebellion, see my post above. It was a special circumstance. Choosing one Targaryen over the other is a different matter. Aegon II was the male heir.

4. We know of no rebellions against House Tyrell during their 300 years of rule. We have no reason to suspect any. All of the major houses seem to be well behind their liege house. Intermarrige among extremely powerful bannerman is a smart move, especially considering these houses are much older and are more entitled to Highgarden.

5. This is pure speculation on your part and does not really fit the narrative. Four of the other great Houses were in open rebellion. House Tyrell joining the rebels would have brought a fifth and likely Tywin as well. They could have put the nail in Aerys' coffin early and named their price.

[The Idle Raven]

Hello,

A really good thread, I'm enjoying reading all the responses. The fate of the Reach, Tyrells and their various bannermen in TWoW has the potential to develop very, very nicely. I know that the Florent's have been mentioned already, but I think that they will be one of the first Reach houses to declare for Aegon. The Florent's have absolutely nothing to lose. Their support of Stannis has led to Brightwater Keep being handed over to Garlan Tyrell and the putative head of the house, Alekyne Florent, is hiding in Oldtown (are the Hightowers actively sheltering him and other family members?). The Florent's also boast a superior line of descent from the old Gardener Kings than do the Tyrell's. They are an old House and may have sufficient influence to sway other previous Targ loyalists who are having serious doubts about Mace Tyrell.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Hello,

A really good thread, I'm enjoying reading all the responses. The fate of the Reach, Tyrells and their various bannermen in TWoW has the potential to develop very, very nicely. I know that the Florent's have been mentioned already, but I think that they will be one of the first Reach houses to declare for Aegon. The Florent's have absolutely nothing to lose. Their support of Stannis has led to Brightwater Keep being handed over to Garlan Tyrell and the putative head of the house, Alekyne Florent, is hiding in Oldtown (are the Hightowers actively sheltering him and other family members?). The Florent's also boast a superior line of descent from the old Gardener Kings than do the Tyrell's. They are an old House and may have sufficient influence to sway other previous Targ loyalists who are having serious doubts about Mace Tyrell.

I think the Florents are pretty much done. They brought their 2,000 troops to Reach army during the war and made a fatal mistake by supporting Stannis. As you said, Lord Axell has been executed, his heir is in hiding, and the Florent lands now belong to Garlan.

Garlan brought a large part of his father's army back to Reach in order to escort his mother and grandmother to Highgarden and then to lay siege to Brightwater Keep. Given that the Florents likely left only a token garrsion, the castle and lands should be under Garlan's control by now.

The Hightowers are heavily married into many of the major noble houses of the Reach. Sheltering Alekyne is likely a way of helping out a family member in a difficult time. The Tyrells are not only their liege lords, but family as well.

[ironhandbywater]

Hey Guys Grand responses

I think the point on Orton Merryweather is a grand one - and I can see him coming to the aid of Aegon.

The idea that Matthis will in turn meet with Randyl Tarly and convince him that the time has come to turn cloak is again good. I don't buy that Tarly cares a fig for the Targaryen's he is a practical man who knows his strengths and how to make himself useful to those around him namely he is a first class soldier. Whether he will be good enough to face professional troops with superior discipline (a foe he has never faced before) is another question - elephants in the rainwood indeed.

The Hightowers have too much to deal with on the home front right now (though I think with Sam there we will see a lot more of them and also of Jorah's ex wife, Alleras and the maesters)

As has been said on a previous thread the idea that the Tyrell's are anything but pragmatists is one I reject. They must have had a substantial host ringing Storm's End at the end of the Rebellion, there were still Targs around and Dorn still had the Red Viper. They dipped their banners, if it looks like they will lose again Mace's strength now much diluted with forces at Brightwater keep and some to hold Kings Landing and Dragonstone will weaken further. Hedge knights and free riders will leave to join the dragon followed by Lords.

I also like the idea that Connington will spread greyscale though the company and therefore their rise will meteoric and the fall the same.

PS my apologies that others had posted much the same before.

[KingHodorTargaryen]

I do hope Mathis Rowan survives, he seems like a good man. He either will be dead, a prisoner of Aegon ready to fight for him or bend the knee, or part of Tarly's conditions when Tarly turns his cloak.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Hey Guys Grand responses

I think the point on Orton Merryweather is a grand one - and I can see him coming to the aid of Aegon.

The idea that Matthis will in turn meet with Randyl Tarly and convince him that the time has come to turn cloak is again good. I don't buy that Tarly cares a fig for the Targaryen's he is a practical man who knows his strengths and how to make himself useful to those around him namely he is a first class soldier. Whether he will be good enough to face professional troops with superior discipline (a foe he has never faced before) is another question - elephants in the rainwood indeed.

The Hightowers have too much to deal with on the home front right now (though I think with Sam there we will see a lot more of them and also of Jorah's ex wife, Alleras and the maesters)

As has been said on a previous thread the idea that the Tyrell's are anything but pragmatists is one I reject. They must have had a substantial host ringing Storm's End at the end of the Rebellion, there were still Targs around and Dorn still had the Red Viper. They dipped their banners, if it looks like they will lose again Mace's strength now much diluted with forces at Brightwater keep and some to hold Kings Landing and Dragonstone will weaken further. Hedge knights and free riders will leave to join the dragon followed by Lords.

I also like the idea that Connington will spread greyscale though the company and therefore their rise will meteoric and the fall the same.

PS my apologies that others had posted much the same before.

1. Other than Taena's inside information against Cersei, Orton Merryweather can provide no help. His family lands and strength were greatly reduced by Aerys.

2. Ser Kevan Lannister describes Lord Randyll as a narrow man, but shrewd, and above all else loyal. I tend to agree with this. I think its likely he was against bending the knee to Robert Baratheon.

3. As I stated before, the Hightowers are as wealthy as the Lannisters and can field a huge army all on their own. The threat from Euron is somewhat overstated. The Iron Fleet is greatly diminished and whats left of it is half a world away. That leaves Euron with mostly longships made for raiding. If the ironmen made it inside Oldtown they could do some damage, but never conquer or hold the city.

Additionally, Garlan and his army are on the way to Oldtown to meet up with Hightower troops and the Redwyne fleet. As usual, I don't expect the Higtowers will send many men, leaving them with plenty to aid Aegon should they choose to do so.

4. Rhaegar and Aerys were the leader/symbols for the Targaryen dynasty. Rhaegar's children were also dead. With Tywin in the fold, the rebels had five of the great houses and momentum. Dorne already had 10,000 men, a and two King's Guard destroyed during the war. There is loyalty and then blind loyalty. The Tyrells fought to the end, but the circumstances were too tough. Viserys was a child and too much like his father. Dany was a newborn.

5. This idea of a greyscale epidemic does not compute. Greyscale is not uncommon to the Seven Kingdom's (see Shireen). Connington does as instructed and keeps himself covered and clean. The disease is spread through contact, it is not airborne.

[History of Westeros]

A point I initially raised, but Lord Varys seemed to have glossed over. To me, that act spells loyalty and devotion.

It is a gesture of loyalty and an awareness of who King Aerys is, there's no implicit devotion, but there might be opportunism. He was a paranoid man and Houses all over the realm were flipping to Robert. It's likely enough Lord Randyll wanted to remove lingering doubts as to where his loyalties lie. As fast as Aerys was moving through Hands he may have been angling for a crack at the job himself. No doubt he felt himself capable.

Everyone seems to agree that he's a shrewd man. Shrewd men know the value of expressing loyalty, especially to paranoid men.

[thewingedwolf]

First off, a message to te OP: Welcome to the forums and might I add, a fine first post. I look forward to reading more from you.

Now I am not one to sidetrack a post like this one but I would like to address the issue that it seems suggested that some of the Tyrell bannermen may switch over to Aegon. If anything, the Tyrell bannermen have been nothing but loyal to their Liege. Furthermore, if, the match occurs between Aegon and Arianne Martell (and the sample chapter we got certainly implies that this may be underway) it would further alienate the Lords of the Reach who arbor deep animosity for the Dornish.

That being said, back to the topic at hand: I agree that Mathis Rowan is a good man and could be a good leader however I do think he is either dead or captured at Storm's End. This one of those things where I hope I am wrong but its hard to see how he could survive an assault by the Golden Company.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

It is a gesture of loyalty and an awareness of who King Aerys is, there's no implicit devotion, but there might be opportunism. He was a paranoid man and Houses all over the realm were flipping to Robert. It's likely enough Lord Randyll wanted to remove lingering doubts as to where his loyalties lie. As fast as Aerys was moving through Hands he may have been angling for a crack at the job himself. No doubt he felt himself capable.

Everyone seems to agree that he's a shrewd man. Shrewd men know the value of expressing loyalty, especially to paranoid men.

I take you back to Kevan Lannisters sound assessment of Lord Randyll. A narrow man, but shrewd, and most of all loyal. A shrewd man would not angle to be the Hand of a mad king who if going through Hands like a hot knife through butter. A shrewd man will know that the best way to king's heart is crushing his enemies on the battle field, and sending tokens fealty.

Why would Aerys doubt the loyalties of a seasoned commander who is serving under a lord paramount loyal to hm? He likely would not.

[History of Westeros]

As to the assertion that anyone who rebelled along with Daemon wouldn't be major houses now, in general of course that's true but the first BF rebellion was over 100 years ago so some of these houses have had a chance to become quite strong again. It's really easy for this to happen. All you need is a house that fought for the Blackfyres and were reduced, then fought for Robert (early on would work best of course) and got rewarded. A lot of power shifted hands at the end of Robert's Rebellion and certainly some of that benefited houses that sided with the Blackfyres.

House Yronwood was a major house that supported the Blackfyres and are still a major house, seemingly the #2 power in Dorne. House Reyne as well. It seems that they were still #2/#3 in the West when Tywin annihilated them.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

First off, a message to te OP: Welcome to the forums and might I add, a fine first post. I look forward to reading more from you.

Now I am not one to sidetrack a post like this one but I would like to address the issue that it seems suggested that some of the Tyrell bannermen may switch over to Aegon. If anything, the Tyrell bannermen have been nothing but loyal to their Liege. Furthermore, if, the match occurs between Aegon and Arianne Martell (and the sample chapter we got certainly implies that this may be underway) it would further alienate the Lords of the Reach who arbor deep animosity for the Dornish.

That being said, back to the topic at hand: I agree that Mathis Rowan is a good man and could be a good leader however I do think he is either dead or captured at Storm's End. This one of those things where I hope I am wrong but its hard to see how he could survive an assault by the Golden Company.

The Tyrell bannerman have been quite loyal, but they may be faced with a situation that requires them to go a different route. There are three things to consider:

1. The Reach is under heavy attack from the ironmen. The Reach greatly outnumbers the ironborn, but must have Lord Redwyne's fleet to win the war. Garlan Tyrell and the Hightowers are preparing armies to meet with the Redwyne fleet and take the war to Euron.

On paper it looks like a forgone conclusion that the Reach will win this conflict. The Iron Fleet is down to less than half its strength and a half a world away in Essos. Without the Iron Fleet Euron has no hope of matching Lord Redwyne's 200 warships and 1000 support ships. The ironmen have many 100's of lesser longships built for raiding, not war.

However, Euron is a tactical genius if nothing else. He has those warlocks with him, and I foresee a Blackwater wildfire type of plan brewing. Should this be the case, the Reach will be seriously damaged. This may also be a signal to House Hightower that changes are necessary.

2. The Tyrell invasion force is more than likely on its way to defeat in the Stormlands. This will be a signal to all potential friends and allies to Aegon to must at Storm's End. This event may also place two of Mace Tyrells strongest bannerman in Aegon's control.

3. The Tyrells are the blood of Stewards, raised well above their station. Like the Florents, there are likely others who resent their dominion over the Reach, albeit secretly.

The lords of Reach may soon be in a situation that requires them to read the tea leaves and make a decision.