Solving the Food Dilemma

[Heyo Winter Comin']

In a Feast For Crows we had a lot of evidence that Westeros is going to be screwed now that winter is here, seeing as a lot of the regions lost their last harvests. The north and the Riverlands in particular, but Stormlands, Reach and Westerlands armies remained active for a long time away from home, and the Westerlands were ravaged by Robb's army. Jaime Lannister wonders what his father would have done to feed the realm, Alys Karstark and Bowen Marsh comment on the dire food situation, as does The Lord hosting Ramsay while he's searching for the Freys, forgot his name. So my point is, are we going to see widespread starvation in Westeros, or are we going to have a solution to the problem? Obviously we're initially going to see a lot of famine, but will there be a solution presented? The Reach and the Vale are the most fertile regions but are their stores enough to support the rest of Westeros? My pet theory is that Stannis is going to find a use for his line to the Iron Bank by using their money to buy grain in Essos to replenish the North and Riverlands' winter stores, thus healing the realm to win the crown and giving the North a fighting chance in the War for the Dawn, instead of sadness, sadness, sadness, everybody's starving and dead. Thoughts?

[Lasicka]

No problem: Dany will come and burn everyone, Field of fire style. Plenty of food for the rest =D

But seriously I have no idea. Supplies from Essos seem like a logical step though.

[Arya kiddin']

Vale and Reach are the most fertile of seven kingdoms, and are not hit that hard by winter. Summer Isles lie close as well, importing food from Essos will be helluva expensive.

[I S**t Gold]

^{A good while ago I read a great essay on the Freys (on here I think), pointing out that part of the reason Old Walder is so keen on marriages is just to get as many of his massive family out of the Twins as possible. This is because the Twins is grossly overpopulated and with that in mind the upcoming winter is a grave worry for them. It's less about forging alliances (although I'm sure they're a welcome bonus) and more about giving the family a chance of survival in the upcoming winter.}

^{In the OP I think you've identified a threat which is arguably more dangerous than the Others or the Dragons because they can at least be fought. You can't fight having no food.}

^{With the Vale and the Reach, they may well be OK, but I don't see either of them clubbing together to help the other kingdoms. The reason for stocking up food is partly tactical, in that it leaves the Houses who make sure they're OK for food in a strong position. If people come begging, they're only going to help if there's a ton of punitive conditions attached. It's got to be worth their while. The cruellest thing about winter is that it's indefinite. No matter how well you prepare you can never be sure there's enough. Any act of charity is potentially endangering your own people.}

^{RE - Stannis, there's obviously the chance he could already be dead. I wonder if that Azor Ahai thing has got into his head. There's a comment he makes to Massey, and certain elements of his strategy do seem suicidal. In any case I don't think Stannis is going to be feeding the North. He's already incurring a huge debt if he just wants to replenish his forces with fighting men and feed those guys. Also he explicitly requested fighting men rather than food. I think your theory could well be the best approach if Stannis is wanting to get the loyalty of the North and the Iron Throne, but I don't think Stannis thinks that way. When Davos basically saved Stannis and his men from starvation, he rewarded Davos with a title and some amputated fingers. I don't see him having a burning desire to help Northmen who are only siding with him because of a mutual enemy.}

^{Hope for the North might conceivable come in the form of Wyman Manderly, because White Harbour seems to be very well prepared and the fat man doesn't seem like the sort to risk being short of food, but even then the same thing applies. Manderly may very well help his allies, but it's risky and could come back to bite him on his exceeding large arse.}

^{I feel like the bleaker scenario you describe is the most likely. This winter is going to last for years and there's going to be a lot of starvation and misery.}

[Borsabil]

In a Feast For Crows we had a lot of evidence that Westeros is going to be screwed now that winter is here, seeing as a lot of the regions lost their last harvests. The north and the Riverlands in particular, but Stormlands, Reach and Westerlands armies remained active for a long time away from home, and the Westerlands were ravaged by Robb's army. Jaime Lannister wonders what his father would have done to feed the realm, Alys Karstark and Bowen Marsh comment on the dire food situation, as does The Lord hosting Ramsay while he's searching for the Freys, forgot his name. So my point is, are we going to see widespread starvation in Westeros, or are we going to have a solution to the problem? Obviously we're initially going to see a lot of famine, but will there be a solution presented? The Reach and the Vale are the most fertile regions but are their stores enough to support the rest of Westeros? My pet theory is that Stannis is going to find a use for his line to the Iron Bank by using their money to buy grain in Essos to replenish the North and Riverlands' winter stores, thus healing the realm to win the crown and giving the North a fighting chance in the War for the Dawn, instead of sadness, sadness, sadness, everybody's starving and dead. Thoughts?

.

The Riverlands and the Stormlands are the kingdoms most devastated by war. To a lesser extent the Westerlands. What makes you think the North is going to starve? Apart from the Ironborn invasion, which really only impacted some strategic locations, the North has been left largely untouched by war, there certainly is no reason to believe that there stores have been burned and looted as in the south.

[Lasicka]

Vale and Reach are the most fertile of seven kingdoms, and are not hit that hard by winter. Summer Isles lie close as well, importing food from Essos will be helluva expensive.

You´re right about Vale and Reach, although I´m not sure they would be able (or willing for that matter) to feed all the other lands. And the Summer Isles are even more distant than Essos, so it might be even more expensive.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

.

The Riverlands and the Stormlands are the kingdoms most devastated by war. To a lesser extent the Westerlands. What makes you think the North is going to starve? Apart from the Ironborn invasion, which really only impacted some strategic locations, the North has been left largely untouched by war, there certainly is no reason to believe that there stores have been burned and looted as in the south.

GRRM's had multiple northern characters commenting on the dire straits of the North's food stores, among them Alys Karstark and Bowen Marsh. He's made this mentioned for a reason.

[kiasyd]

A shorter winter, resulting from the exploits of Bran, the Broken could fix that. :cool4:

[Heyo Winter Comin']

^{A good while ago I read a great essay on the Freys (on here I think), pointing out that part of the reason Old Walder is so keen on marriages is just to get as many of his massive family out of the Twins as possible. This is because the Twins is grossly overpopulated and with that in mind the upcoming winter is a grave worry for them. It's less about forging alliances (although I'm sure they're a welcome bonus) and more about giving the family a chance of survival in the upcoming winter.}

^{In the OP I think you've identified a threat which is arguably more dangerous than the Others or the Dragons because they can at least be fought. You can't fight having no food.}

^{With the Vale and the Reach, they may well be OK, but I don't see either of them clubbing together to help the other kingdoms. The reason for stocking up food is partly tactical, in that it leaves the Houses who make sure they're OK for food in a strong position. If people come begging, they're only going to help if there's a ton of punitive conditions attached. It's got to be worth their while. The cruellest thing about winter is that it's indefinite. No matter how well you prepare you can never be sure there's enough. Any act of charity is potentially endangering your own people.}

^{RE - Stannis, there's obviously the chance he could already be dead. I wonder if that Azor Ahai thing has got into his head. There's a comment he makes to Massey, and certain elements of his strategy do seem suicidal. In any case I don't think Stannis is going to be feeding the North. He's already incurring a huge debt if he just wants to replenish his forces with fighting men and feed those guys. Also he explicitly requested fighting men rather than food. I think your theory could well be the best approach if Stannis is wanting to get the loyalty of the North and the Iron Throne, but I don't think Stannis thinks that way. When Davos basically saved Stannis and his men from starvation, he rewarded Davos with a title and some amputated fingers. I don't see him having a burning desire to help Northmen who are only siding with him because of a mutual enemy.}

^{Hope for the North might conceivable come in the form of Wyman Manderly, because White Harbour seems to be very well prepared and the fat man doesn't seem like the sort to risk being short of food, but even then the same thing applies. Manderly may very well help his allies, but it's risky and could come back to bite him on his exceeding large arse.}

^{I feel like the bleaker scenario you describe is the most likely. This winter is going to last for years and there's going to be a lot of starvation and misery.}

I think Massey will find that there aren't many sellsword companies to buy, I'm not a big believer that a whole new bunch are going to get introduced; I think we're supposed to assume that most of them are tied up in Slaver's Bay while the GC is with Aegon. Stannis may find that grain shipments are a lot cheaper when it buys him 15,000 Northern swords and 10,000 Riverlanders, who don't have much reason not to fight for revenge as long as their realms remain fed and protected. And let's not forget Sansa; if she indeed married Harry right around the time that Stannis reclaims the North for the Starks, that's a powerful selling point for the Vale finally declaring for Stannis.

[Nite's King]

CANNABALISM

[papirico52]

They won't solve it many people will die.

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

Hm........... the Tyrells become new Kings of Winter :commie: :commie: :commie:

[Borsabil]

GRRM's had multiple northern characters commenting on the dire straits of the North's food stores, among them Alys Karstark and Bowen Marsh. He's made this mentioned for a reason.

The North is an enormous region populated with thousands of little villages and hamlets. Some of the larger settlements and fotresses overrun by the Ironborn might be facing problems, but the North as a whole? Even Robb taking 18,000 fighting men wouldn't have had much impact, yes maybe some settlements would have a lack of able bodied men to get in the harvest, but we're talking about a small number compared to the total population no bigee. Compared to other regions the North has been left largely untouched by war, so far that is. So no I'm not getting where all this the 'North is going to starve' commentary is coming from.

[Slugabed]

CANNABALISM

Plenty of Freys to go round.

I'll get my coat...

[Borsabil]

I think Massey will find that there aren't many sellsword companies to buy, I'm not a big believer that a whole new bunch are going to get introduced; I think we're supposed to assume that most of them are tied up in Slaver's Bay while the GC is with Aegon. Stannis may find that grain shipments are a lot cheaper when it buys him 15,000 Northern swords and 10,000 Riverlanders, who don't have much reason not to fight for revenge as long as their realms remain fed and protected. And let's not forget Sansa; if she indeed married Harry right around the time that Stannis reclaims the North for the Starks, that's a powerful selling point for the Vale finally declaring for Stannis.

Stannis biggest problem will be fighting a war in the winter, especially as he is trying to rally the North to his cause. So far we've only seem a tiny little taster of what the new long night will look like and it's almost done for Stannis.

[RoamingRonin]

I think the food situation is GRRM exercising his favorite trope: the diabolus ex machina. There's not going to be enough food to feed the majority. I'd be surprised if there were any living people left for the Others to kill. Importing food from Essos is going to be expensive and most likely impossible since Dany ruined the economy over there.

^{A good while ago I read a great essay on the Freys (on here I think), pointing out that part of the reason Old Walder is so keen on marriages is just to get as many of his massive family out of the Twins as possible. This is because the Twins is grossly overpopulated and with that in mind the upcoming winter is a grave worry for them. It's less about forging alliances (although I'm sure they're a welcome bonus) and more about giving the family a chance of survival in the upcoming winter.}

Merrett Frey says in the Storm of Swords epilogue that if there isn't enough food at the Twins to feed everyone, all of the expendable members are going to get kicked out by Lord Frey. Lord Frey only cares about direct heirs and favorites. Anyone else can starve for all he cares.

[Nite's King]

That's why the Freys are so populous....they're going to feed Westeros!

[thelittledragonthatcould]

^{A good while ago I read a great essay on the Freys (on here I think), pointing out that part of the reason Old Walder is so keen on marriages is just to get as many of his massive family out of the Twins as possible. This is because the Twins is grossly overpopulated and with that in mind the upcoming winter is a grave worry for them. It's less about forging alliances (although I'm sure they're a welcome bonus) and more about giving the family a chance of survival in the upcoming winter.}

You do realize that there are probably hundreds of people living in the Twins, not just the Freys themselves and for every Frey they ship off there is a spouse coming to live with them at the Twins.

[The Titan's Legitimate Son]

In part of the GNC, there is a part about how it is the eldest men that Whoresbane took to Winterfell, how Wyman Manderly is not afraid to die for the cause and is probably relying upon it and that the hill tribes who join the war are the old men.

It is effectively a clear out - a necessary sacrifice to ensure there is enough food for those most likely to survive the winter. Think back to the story about men "going hunting" to meet death head on. This is how the North is preparing for winter, by effectively rationing food to those with the highest survival odds.

[Sansa_Stark]

You´re right about Vale and Reach, although I´m not sure they would be able (or willing for that matter) to feed all the other lands. And the Summer Isles are even more distant than Essos, so it might be even more expensive.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/4/40/Summer_Islands.png

Indeed.

Importing food from another continent seems pretty weak.

I mean, a few hundred ships are not going to carry enough food to feed AN ENTIRE CONTINENT no matter how many times they go back and forth.