Solving the Food Dilemma

[Borsabil]

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/4/40/Summer_Islands.png

Indeed.

Importing food from another continent seems pretty weak.

I mean, a few hundred ships are not going to carry enough food to feed AN ENTIRE CONTINENT no matter how many times they go back and forth.

The long winters are limited to Westeros, is that right? Was never 100% clear on that.

[Sansa_Stark]

The long winters are limited to Westeros, is that right? Was never 100% clear on that.

I'm not entirely certain. But the Long Night is coming and The Others.

This might effect the entire world.

[The Old Tongue]

^{A good while ago I read a great essay on the Freys (on here I think), pointing out that part of the reason Old Walder is so keen on marriages is just to get as many of his massive family out of the Twins as possible. This is because the Twins is grossly overpopulated and with that in mind the upcoming winter is a grave worry for them.}

^{Then why was he trying to marry his daughters off to Robb and Roose? Or have his grandsons fostered in Winterfell? Everything Walder has done has been an attempt to elevate his House's status.}

[The Old Tongue]

The long winters are limited to Westeros, is that right? Was never 100% clear on that.

I believe the Long Winter is a Westerosi phenomenon. Essos had it's own Doom. There's also everything in Essos past the Bone Mountains into Asshai. This counterpoint to the Land of Always Winter is pretty interesting and I wonder if there's more to it than we know.

[juanml82]

Winters should be planet wide. But since Essos is further South, agriculture is likely still possible there during winter.

[Dornish Whine]

The long winters are limited to Westeros, is that right? Was never 100% clear on that.

I believe the Long Winter is a Westerosi phenomenon. Essos had it's own Doom. There's also everything in Essos past the Bone Mountains into Asshai. This counterpoint to the Land of Always Winter is pretty interesting and I wonder if there's more to it than we know.

I think the bizarre seasons, the long night, the others, etc are part of Essosi culture as well as Westerosi. Why else would they have the Azor Ahai legend, unless it had impacted their continent. This prophesy and the threat it fortells seems to stretch all the way to Asshai, where certain red priests seem to be from.

ETA -

And as juanml82 says, weather is planet wide.

[Borsabil]

I think the bizarre seasons, the long night, the others, etc are part of Essosi culture as well as Westerosi. Why else would they have the Azor Ahai legend, unless it had impacted their continent. This prophesy and the threat it fortells seems to stretch all the way to Asshai, where certain red priests seem to be from.

ETA -

And as juanml82 says, weather is planet wide.

Yes of course that makes sense, but GRRM has said the long winters have a magical cause and have nothing to do with solar activity or planetary tilt, (the cause of our Ice Ages). Will do some research. I mention this because when reading the Essos part of the books no one seems to mention the long winters whilst in Westeros they're obsessed with it, even in the southerly parts of the continent.

[Borsabil]

I believe the Long Winter is a Westerosi phenomenon. Essos had it's own Doom. There's also everything in Essos past the Bone Mountains into Asshai. This counterpoint to the Land of Always Winter is pretty interesting and I wonder if there's more to it than we know.

I suppose it's relevant to this thread in that if Essos also suffers from the long winter wouldn't the city states there, especially the ones nearest Westeros, also be hoarding their food supplies? Wouldn't that argue against Stannis being able to feed his Army with imported food? Also worth mentioning that a good chunk of Essos is now mired in war itself.

[I S**t Gold]

I think Massey will find that there aren't many sellsword companies to buy, I'm not a big believer that a whole new bunch are going to get introduced; I think we're supposed to assume that most of them are tied up in Slaver's Bay while the GC is with Aegon. Stannis may find that grain shipments are a lot cheaper when it buys him 15,000 Northern swords and 10,000 Riverlanders, who don't have much reason not to fight for revenge as long as their realms remain fed and protected. And let's not forget Sansa; if she indeed married Harry right around the time that Stannis reclaims the North for the Starks, that's a powerful selling point for the Vale finally declaring for Stannis.

I tend to agree with you there, most of the decent sized sellsword companies seem to be otherwise engaged, but even so I don't think Massey would independently take the decision to spend the money on something else without Stannis' say-so. If Stannis does decide to change the plan, how is he going to get word to Massey?

You do realize that there are probably hundreds of people living in the Twins, not just the Freys themselves and for every Frey they ship off there is a spouse coming to live with them at the Twins.

I do realize that there are probably hundreds of people living in the Twins. That's the point I was making. However I don't think it's a one to one exchange rate. Walder is looking for marriage alliances that don't involve taking on extra guests because of this problem. He's shipping off every Frey kid someone will take to be wards of other houses. I wasn't suggesting for a second that this policy will be effective though, I was just using it as a good example of a house who are worried about the problem the OP brought up.

[I S**t Gold]

Then why was he trying to marry his daughters off to Robb and Roose? Or have his grandsons fostered in Winterfell? Everything Walder has done has been an attempt to elevate his House's status.

Sorry if I wasn't being clear. I wasn't saying that Walder is against marriages that elevate his houses status, hence 'part of the reason'. Obviously in the ideal world he'd get rid of Freys and elevate his houses status, but if there's no option like that available he still needs to get rid of Freys. It's of vital importance.

There are Freys all over Westeros, many of them in situations that do nothing to benefit the strength of the Freys.

[Barty]

The riverlands are in a bad position, they are near starving already. The North wasn't hit near as bad as the riverlands. But if this winter lasts longer than 2 years I'm guessing they'll be starving as well. Dont know about the west - Robb supposedly paid them back in kind for what they did to the Riverlands but he wasnt there near as long as Tywin was in the Riverlands however the BlackFish(who was there during Robb's campaign) seems to think the west doesnt have much left(judging by his reaction when Jaime suggests that the besiegers might be able to bring food down from the west). The Reach hasnt been hit, neither has the Vale nor Dorne or the Stormlands(not counting Aegon's landing which has just started).

Overall I'd say the riverlands and the west are the worst hit but the upcoming Dance might just leave the entire south in the same boat as them. The only way out then might be an early spring.

[The Mother of The Others]

[ insert here a smilee with a light bulb going on over its head to signify "Here's an idea!"] -----

Does Catelyn still need to eat? Don't know. But if not, then that's how a lot of humans could be sheltered from hunger during the winter. Shift them over to the bright-zombie format during the worst of the famine. That way they'd be able to concentrate on surviving the wights, and could go the distance in that battle instead of tapping out early due to starvation. It would force the wights & Others to act, taking away their option to merely wait out the human survivors until all human opposition collapsed. Then, after the cold zombies were driven off, the quest could begin to find an antidote or a re-birthing magic to bring the brightzombies back to life. Or perhaps there is no such thing, but by not needing any food themselves these heroic zombies would have saved that food for the remnant of humanity who IS destined to survive the winter, concentrating that food bank so it can keep a select few people healthy instead of everyone hanging on by a thread, totally weak and malnourished. The equivalent of a council of elders could get zombified and still be able to remember everything about how human society works so they could jump start it again on the other side of the crisis, and by making themselves immortalized they'd be ensuring they had enough time to do just that! I assume that if someone is brought back as a zombie immediately after death they retain much more of their higher brain functioning and are essentially the same person they were in life, like Beric as opposed to Cat, right? Well? Let's get this project started! What do we do, email the publisher?

[The Human Abstract]

Doesn't it seem like Essos is experiencing a different form of climate change too? Like the fields burning up?

[Berelyn]

This was the problem I was pondering as well, actually. The Riverlands are starving, the north food stores are in grave condition, the westerlands have been ravaged, and the last harvest didn't happen. And the wars are nowhere near done!

Considering that this winter is apparently going to be really freaking long, I have serious doubt on how the population is going to survive, even if given its inevitable trimming by the hands of the Others

the name of the last book doesn't sound too optimistic either...

[Woman of War]

Don't forget that all those people who have no function in that ohsoimportant game of thrones will not die meekly from starvation. There will be social uprisings, the smallfolk will storm the castles in search for food and whole areas will be depopulated, the peasants will refuse to serve their liege lord since punishment by death will not convince them anymore if starving is the alternative. They will simply migrate south and follow the food.

And they will hardly leave alone a relatively well nourished castle close by while their children die of starvation. So the lords will have to fight against their own smallfolk.

At the end of medieval times harsh winters in combination with pestilence finally led to the end of the feudal system. The peasants had a new power to bargain working conditions since there was a serious lack of workforce.

There will be food and grain speculation, the Iron Bank will get even more powerful through commodity futures and finally it will be the Iron Bank who is kingsmaker when they grant support to whomever promises economic freedom.

[The Old Tongue]

Yes of course that makes sense, but GRRM has said the long winters have a magical cause and have nothing to do with solar activity or planetary tilt, (the cause of our Ice Ages). Will do some research. I mention this because when reading the Essos part of the books no one seems to mention the long winters whilst in Westeros they're obsessed with it, even in the southerly parts of the continent.

more on the Land of Always Winter and Asshai relationship:

I've yet to see a true representation of the World of ASOIAF. So far it has only been depicted as a flat map, which lends itself to a certain level of distortion. I'm wondering if, once (if ever) the LoAW and Asshai regions are mapped out if we'll see that these two regions are closer geographically than the 2D map indicates. Since there's a strange sort of mirroring going on with these unexplored regions being regarded as dreadful no-mans lands, I'm wondering if they could actually be neighbors and two sides of the same coin (I know, LoAW is cold and Asshai is hot, but the above quote, if accurate, could back up the point.)

[Heyo Winter Comin']

Don't forget that all those people who have no function in that ohsoimportant game of thrones will not die meekly from starvation. There will be social uprisings, the smallfolk will storm the castles in search for food and whole areas will be depopulated, the peasants will refuse to serve their liege lord since punishment by death will not convince them anymore if starving is the alternative. They will simply migrate south and follow the food.

And they will hardly leave alone a relatively well nourished castle close by while their children die of starvation. So the lords will have to fight against their own smallfolk.

At the end of medieval times harsh winters in combination with pestilence finally led to the end of the feudal system. The peasants had a new power to bargain working conditions since there was a serious lack of workforce.

There will be food and grain speculation, the Iron Bank will get even more powerful through commodity futures and finally it will be the Iron Bank who is kingsmaker when they grant support to whomever promises economic freedom.

That's partly my point, that people aren't just going to sit quietly and starve. All the players in Westeros are rational actors so we're bound to see some solutions proposed at least.

[Slugabed]

I would think there's something to be gained in this deal if you're a house/region with food stores. Trading survival goods for advantageous marriages, banners, etc could be a way to play the game of thrones during a long winter.

[Stoned Dragon]

I think there are two answers:

I think a lot of people in the South are going to starve. The Riverlands are decimated and are under the control of the Lannister/Frey coalition. Unlike in the North, we don't hear about people returning to Riverrun when Winter starts -- it seems to be much more of a fend-for-yourself thing in the South. So when Winter hits, a lot of starving, angry people formerly loyal to the Tullys are going to be angry -- making it easy for the Brotherhood Without Banners to recruit and for the Red Wedding 2.0 to happen during a celebratory feast at Riverrun (everyone would be there to enjoy the food). Lack of food in the South will also help keep the Tyrells alive, no matter who wins the Iron Throne since they are the South's breadbasket. Really, whether people starve in the South will depend on whether they are aligned with someone who has access to food (the Reach, Vale, & Dorne). If you're not, then good luck.

But that's not the case in the North.

Stannis wasn't the only person to get a loan from the Iron Bank. Jon Snow was also able to get a loan , but unlike Stannis his loan his for the entire duration of the Winter, and is directed specifically towards food for the Night's Watch. Stannis' loan was primarily given for weapons and troops (and perhaps food to feed them), which means that between the two of them they can both feed and outfit everyone who chooses to join the War for the Dawn on Stannis/NW's side. Everyone else can take shelter at White Harbor, which is further South, well guarded, and since human sacrifice to the Old Gods has happened there it may be immune from the Others.

TL;DR -- Winter in the South is going to further empower places/people with control over food stores, and this will effect alliances. Those unable to align themselves without a well-stocked Southern house will either starve or join the new High Septon, whose alms will most likely further empower him and make him a worthy ally against the Lannisters. Winter in the North will be horrible, but the Night's Watch/Stannis' have food for anyone trying to join their causes, which are aligned at the moment, and everyone else shelters at White Harbor, where they're pretty protected.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

I think there are two answers:

I think a lot of people in the South are going to starve. The Riverlands are decimated and are under the control of the Lannister/Frey coalition. Unlike in the North, we don't hear about people returning to Riverrun when Winter starts -- it seems to be much more of a fend-for-yourself thing in the South. So when Winter hits, a lot of starving, angry people formerly loyal to the Tullys are going to be angry -- making it easy for the Brotherhood Without Banners to recruit and for the Red Wedding 2.0 to happen during a celebratory feast at Riverrun (everyone would be there to enjoy the food). Lack of food in the South will also help keep the Tyrells alive, no matter who wins the Iron Throne since they are the South's breadbasket. Really, whether people starve in the South will depend on whether they are aligned with someone who has access to food (the Reach, Vale, & Dorne). If you're not, then good luck.

But that's not the case in the North.

Stannis wasn't the only person to get a loan from the Iron Bank. Jon Snow was also able to get a loan , but unlike Stannis his loan his for the entire duration of the Winter, and is directed specifically towards food for the Night's Watch. Stannis' loan was primarily given for weapons and troops (and perhaps food to feed them), which means that between the two of them they can both feed and outfit everyone who chooses to join the War for the Dawn on Stannis/NW's side. Everyone else can take shelter at White Harbor, which is further South, well guarded, and since human sacrifice to the Old Gods has happened there it may be immune from the Others.

TL;DR -- Winter in the South is going to further empower places/people with control over food stores, and this will effect alliances. Those unable to align themselves without a well-stocked Southern house will either starve or join the new High Septon, whose alms will most likely further empower him and make him a worthy ally against the Lannisters. Winter in the North will be horrible, but the Night's Watch/Stannis' have food for anyone trying to join their causes, which are aligned at the moment, and everyone else shelters at White Harbor, where they're pretty protected.

If there's no sellswords to buy, or at least not many, as I believe, then Stannis can hardly spend his money on fighting men. The North and Riverlanders seem pretty set for arms and armour, and even if he was to rearm his 1500 Southrons with new horses and armour, the Hedge Knight revealed that you can buy a full set of steel armour for 4 dragons, and a horse for another 4. 8x1500=12,000 Dragons. The Hound was walking around with that much in pocket change in the Riverlands from winning his tourney, so I'd say a line to the Iron Bank could purchase that with ease and barely make a dent. So, Stannis would still have muchos deneros to buy food.

And I'd say that Stannis' loan was given to help him win the realm. If he's smart enough to work out that he can do it with grain to help regions instead of buying sellswords, I'd say he'd do it.