The Crofters' Village and the Upcoming Battle of Winterfell

[John Thompson]

II. Baiting the trap.

If this Fair Isle Redux theory works, it's because of three things: (a) a main Baratheon position will appear weak to the Freys because the importance of the lakes will not be obvious; the Freys believe that the correct tactic is to concentrate on a line wide enough to engage the main Baratheon position and envelop both of its flanks simultaneously; [c] Stannis divides his force to attack the Freys in the rear once they have committed to battle on the isthmus.

In the last chapter set in Stannis' camp during ADWD, the blizzard had reduced local visibility to dozens of feet at most (e.g., Asha and Ser Clayton being unable to make out any of the riders' features until they were close enough to have a conversation). With heavy accumulation on the ground as well as blowing snow to impair visibility, I don't believe that the Freys will be able to see the boundaries of the lakes. The trees standing on islands in the larger of the lakes may further confuse the approaching Freys as to how wide the isthmus is. (For that matter, I doubt that the Baratheon flanks will know where the lakes are during the fight unless they throw up rope lines along the shores near their position.) Thus, I expect the Freys to orient themselves against the main Baratheon position, instead of the lakes which they can’t see.

So what will the Baratheon position look like? A small force of pikes and spears, probably gathered around the most obvious landmark (e.g., the watchtower with the beacon fire) and with the white sunburst banners of the Karstarks fluttering behind the front lines. Its ranks will be narrow - after all, the lakes protect the flanks and the width of the isthmus rather than the numbers of the opposing forces will govern how many men can attack at once. But someone ignorant of the lakes’ dimensions is not likely to appreciate that, at least not immediately.

To Hosteen Frey, this small concentration of men will look like confirmation that the Baratheons are as weak and depleted as he has been told. Hosteen Frey will believe that he can attack the smaller Baratheon position from the front with his wings enveloping that position from either side, while the Karstarks attack the Baratheons from the rear. The Baratheon position should quickly collapse under pressure from all sides. If the Fair Isle Redux theory holds, that’s exactly what Stannis wants him to think.

[John Thompson]

III. How the battle will develop.

The Frey van will approach the camp as a column and begin to concentrate somewhere nearby, perhaps as the right wing to a center led by Hosteen Frey or one of the other senior family members. The left wing will form up last. After three days marching in the snow, the Freys will look at the small Baratheon force with Karstarks in the rear as a gift from the gods old and new. Given their numbers and the “advantage” of having a secret ally as the Baratheon rearguard, the right thing to do is to advance and crush the Baratheon position before they can escape.

Contra BBF’s analysis, I don’t think that the lakes will be more than an afterthought to the Freys. If the advantage conferred by these lakes to Stannis’ defense were that obvious, I would expect Theon - formally educated in war by the Starks, with experience in combat - to notice and comment on it. Instead, Theon is unimpressed; he cannot see it. If Theon can’t see that the lakes will protect Stannis’ flanks and channel the attacking force into a space where Stannis can meet them on equal terms, then it is reasonable to believe that Hosteen Frey might miss it too.

So the battle begins as the Freys advance as three units bent on a double envelopment of the Baratheon position. The Baratheons stay put; they are meant to look like cornered rats awaiting the inevitable. And then just as the Freys are within a spear’s throw of the Baratheon line...crack. The ice gives under some number of Freys, the less heavily armored of which are in a position to cry out for help as they drown. The other Freys can’t help but notice the predicament of their fellows, and also wonder if they themselves aren’t walking on ice about to give away. The advance slows in front, and the ranks begin to break as those who can’t see what’s going on march into those who can. Panic begins to take hold.

Suddenly the trees behind the Frey lines begin to move, as the mountain clans come out of hiding. There are a lot of Freys on the isthmus facing towards the main Baratheon position, but even if the rearguard can turn to fight its way out, the isthmus confines the Freys who didn’t fall through the ice. Only the first rank facing the Baratheon position and the first rank turning to face the mountain clans can fight; the rest are helpless in the middle as arrows fly out of the trees beyond the lakes.

It is an envelopment, but the reverse of what the Freys expected as they approached the village. Stannis divides his forces and traps a superior force between two bodies of water, instead of an island and the coast. The crofters’ village is Fair Isle come again.

[Grip]

Interesting thread, I could see this battle develop the way its described by John Thompson. Stannis has already proven that he is at his best when he has his back to the wall. So the likelihood of Stannis winning this one is high, imo. Good to get a overall map of the area as well, wouldn't mind seeing more of those and not the ones of a larger scale.

[Petyr Patter]

Nice write up, though I think you buy to much into the GNC.

On another note, I think there is a very key difference between the command styles of Stannis and Roose.

Simply put, Roose plays to "not lose," while Stannis plays to win.

Stannis has made a reputation out of going for the win when the opportunity presents itself. He trapped the Iron Fleet and made the rest of the Rebellion mop up duty. We also see this in his eagerness to take King's Landing when he could just as readily pursued Renly's strategy of letting Tywin and Robb weaken each other while he builds his strength. His decision to strike at the Dreadfort, until Jon presented an alternative, also represents his command preference for finding the winning battle and striking.

In contrast, Roose runs or changes course at the first sign of danger. He was ready to retreat from the Greenfork, and probably began planning his betrayal the moment he learned of the Blackwater. Furthermore, he has never won a battle without treachery. Indeed, his march to power was paved on the corpses of Northern soldiers he sent to their deaths through false orders. We are almost witnessing the same thing now, only it probably won't work. He keeps his own loyal men in Winterfell while sending others to do the fighting, figuring it a no lose situation. Either the Freys and Manderly soldiers defeat Stannis and he wins, or they don't but they weaken Stannis and Roose has fewer mouths to feed, lessens tensions, and still has enough of his own men to hold the walls of Winterfell. No lose. Yet, we know the planned Karstark treachery has been neutralized. Plus, the Freys were the only house whose loyalty to Roose could be counted on. Should Stannis pull off a big win, he would weaken Roose and made more defections likely as lords prefer to join a winning side.

[aryagonnakill]

Nice write up, though I think you buy to much into the GNC.

On another note, I think there is a very key difference between the command styles of Stannis and Roose.

Simply put, Roose plays to "not lose," while Stannis plays to win.

Stannis has made a reputation out of going for the win when the opportunity presents itself. He trapped the Iron Fleet and made the rest of the Rebellion mop up duty. We also see this in his eagerness to take King's Landing when he could just as readily pursued Renly's strategy of letting Tywin and Robb weaken each other while he builds his strength. His decision to strike at the Dreadfort, until Jon presented an alternative, also represents his command preference for finding the winning battle and striking.

In contrast, Roose runs or changes course at the first sign of danger. He was ready to retreat from the Greenfork, and probably began planning his betrayal the moment he learned of the Blackwater. Furthermore, he has never won a battle without treachery. Indeed, his march to power was paved on the corpses of Northern soldiers he sent to their deaths through false orders. We are almost witnessing the same thing now, only it probably won't work. He keeps his own loyal men in Winterfell while sending others to do the fighting, figuring it a no lose situation. Either the Freys and Manderly soldiers defeat Stannis and he wins, or they don't but they weaken Stannis and Roose has fewer mouths to feed, lessens tensions, and still has enough of his own men to hold the walls of Winterfell. No lose. Yet, we know the planned Karstark treachery has been neutralized. Plus, the Freys were the only house whose loyalty to Roose could be counted on. Should Stannis pull off a big win, he would weaken Roose and made more defections likely as lords prefer to join a winning side.

Stannis is definitely more aggressive than Roose, but I definitely think other characters have been way move aggressive. I can't remember who was having the conversation but someone was even talking to Stannis about how Robert would have marched on Winterfell ahead of Roose Bolton. I'd also say Robb and Tywin were more aggressive.

[Lord Spark of House Spark]

Stannis is definitely more aggressive than Roose, but I definitely think other characters have been way move aggressive. I can't remember who was having the conversation but someone was even talking to Stannis about how Robert would have marched on Winterfell ahead of Roose Bolton. I'd also say Robb and Tywin were more aggressive.

I think it was Stannis himself that said this

[Grip]

I think Stannis is well prepared to take risks on the battlefield but he wont go charging blindly into the fray, without realising what he is getting himself into. He is probably more similar to Ned then to Robert in this. Roose is very cautious and very careful with how he uses his own men. It would be interesting to see how he would act if he had to go on the initiative and couldn't hold back, like he has done before and is still doing.

[BryndenBFish]

III. How the battle will develop.

The Frey van will approach the camp as a column and begin to concentrate somewhere nearby, perhaps as the right wing to a center led by Hosteen Frey or one of the other senior family members. The left wing will form up last. After three days marching in the snow, the Freys will look at the small Baratheon force with Karstarks in the rear as a gift from the gods old and new. Given their numbers and the “advantage” of having a secret ally as the Baratheon rearguard, the right thing to do is to advance and crush the Baratheon position before they can escape.

Contra BBF’s analysis, I don’t think that the lakes will be more than an afterthought to the Freys. If the advantage conferred by these lakes to Stannis’ defense were that obvious, I would expect Theon - formally educated in war by the Starks, with experience in combat - to notice and comment on it. Instead, Theon is unimpressed; he cannot see it. If Theon can’t see that the lakes will protect Stannis’ flanks and channel the attacking force into a space where Stannis can meet them on equal terms, then it is reasonable to believe that Hosteen Frey might miss it too.

So the battle begins as the Freys advance as three units bent on a double envelopment of the Baratheon position. The Baratheons stay put; they are meant to look like cornered rats awaiting the inevitable. And then just as the Freys are within a spear’s throw of the Baratheon line...crack. The ice gives under some number of Freys, the less heavily armored of which are in a position to cry out for help as they drown. The other Freys can’t help but notice the predicament of their fellows, and also wonder if they themselves aren’t walking on ice about to give away. The advance slows in front, and the ranks begin to break as those who can’t see what’s going on march into those who can. Panic begins to take hold.

Suddenly the trees behind the Frey lines begin to move, as the mountain clans come out of hiding. There are a lot of Freys on the isthmus facing towards the main Baratheon position, but even if the rearguard can turn to fight its way out, the isthmus confines the Freys who didn’t fall through the ice. Only the first rank facing the Baratheon position and the first rank turning to face the mountain clans can fight; the rest are helpless in the middle as arrows fly out of the trees beyond the lakes.

It is an envelopment, but the reverse of what the Freys expected as they approached the village. Stannis divides his forces and traps a superior force between two bodies of water, instead of an island and the coast. The crofters’ village is Fair Isle come again.

Took me a minute to figure out who "BBF" was. When I did... I felt silly. There is precedent for both the Mountain Clans donning tree branches as well as the tactics from Fair Isle that you mention. My question for you is: who guards Stannis' eastern flank? I guess my thought is that the Mountain Clans hold that position and then maybe swing around north and then west to cut off the Frey retreat once no one attacks through the isthmus. That being said, I still think that there's textual evidence for Manderly coming up on the Frey rear and cutting off any retreat back to Winterfell.

I think Stannis is well prepared to take risks on the battlefield but he wont go charging blindly into the fray, without realising what he is getting himself into. He is probably more similar to Ned then to Robert in this. Roose is very cautious and very careful with how he uses his own men. It would be interesting to see how he would act if he had to go on the initiative and couldn't hold back, like he has done before and is still doing.

Stannis does take risks, but I agree that he's more cautious than Robert. But Stannis' greatest asset is his tenacity. Stannis ate leather rather than surrender. I think that Roose is more than very cautious. He deliberately keeps his own men out of harm's way as seen in every single battle he's fought.

[John Thompson]

Took me a minute to figure out who "BBF" was. When I did... I felt silly. There is precedent for both the Mountain Clans donning tree branches as well as the tactics from Fair Isle that you mention. My question for you is: who guards Stannis' eastern flank? I guess my thought is that the Mountain Clans hold that position and then maybe swing around north and then west to cut off the Frey retreat once no one attacks through the isthmus. That being said, I still think that there's textual evidence for Manderly coming up on the Frey rear and cutting off any retreat back to Winterfell.

All we know for certain about this position is that it's somewhere in the wolfswood between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell, and that at least some of the village's structures lie between the two lakes. I don't believe that Martin tells us which way the isthmus or the lakes are oriented relative to compass direction, or to Winterfell.

For the main Baratheon position, I expect that Stannis will choose a defensive position on the isthmus where only his front and rear may be approached on dry land. The flanks of this position are protected by water that the Freys cannot march over. (Remember, we disagree about how apparent this issue will be to the Freys.) This will be true regardless of which direction from which the Freys approach.

For the other Baratheon forces, I expect that Stannis will choose positions that represent the best compromise between being close enough to cut off a Frey retreat the second that the battle begins, and being far enough to stay hidden from the Freys so that they won't think that it's a trap.

[Bonesaw]

I do see another "Battle of the Ice" fought long ago GRRM uses actual events in his story and I believe it will play out this way. Stannis has chosen his ground well, he's aware of the Karstark treachery, a "gift" as described below. I believe the envelopment will be reversed and it will be the Freys trapped. Stannis chooses his ground much like Napoleon did, and when he did not he lost (Waterloo) giving Stannis much credit here he is a superior commander to any Frey or Bolton. What comes next? Roose now has less mouths to feed, and his loyal men he has been saving since the war began? He may escape death here, but the wildcard in this is Manderly, building ships for a year and hiding them. Why? They must have been thinking far ahead of Roose and Tywin Lannister perhaps? Those ships as mentioned below can sail right to Dreadfort. Oh, love to see House Bolton extinct, both father and son deserve an end much like the lives they took. Yes, iam a Stark loyalist, and I can only hope the "Gods' (GRRM) are good. :devil:

[Mourneblade]

Excellent read.

1. Placement of Troops. The Karstark host should be in the middle, up front with, with Stannis's main loyal infantry reinforcing them. This is the only place a smart commander can make use of troops with questionable loyalty.

2. Mors Umber and his "Green Boys" are going to fight a guerrilla style engagement against the Freys, bending, blending into the woods, but not breaking. They will probably maintain their rough position around Winterfell because they have their own agenda and their kinsman inside, but they could also harry and harass the Freys along the way.

3. Patchface. Patchface jumped up. “I will lead it!” His bells rang merrily. “We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.”

A Fool leads his men into death (the sea has always referred to death in patchface's predictions) They will ride the dead Freys horses back to Winterfell and the Manderly's (the Mermen) will blow the horns to that open the gates. This prediction is as good as gold. Patchface has not made any wrong predictions. Stannis marches into Winterfell through the front gates with his host disguised as Freys and Karstarks, with Manderly's full strength.

4. Davos. Davos returns with Rickon, his Wolf, the rest of Manderly's Host, and the Skagosi. This could be anywhere between 1,000 to 5,000 troops or more as we have no idea how many fighting men are on Skagos and I am just guessing that they have similar numbers to the mountain clans lol.

5. Theon and the Heart Tree. This is complicated, however Theon has to live due to the Kingsmoot backstory (not that it will have a happy ending necessarily, but with all the forshadowing it has to take place). It will take an act of the gods to create a plausible reason for Stannis and The northern host to be cool with this. Stannis is no fool, and will probably set the execution at the Heart Tree. I think the murder of ravens from Winterfell (IE the Children of the Forest) will show up, and with Bran and Bloodraven's abilities, and possibly the appearance of Rickon and his Wolf, that Theon will be spared through what appears to be "Divine Intervention".

6. The GNC. I personally buy into most of this, however Roose Bolton has also. Roose Bolton is more cautious and cunning than anyone in Westeros ATM. Think of him as a crueler version of Tywin Lannister. I believe that Roose knows exactly what is going on at the Wall. I think he now knows the minds and loyalties of all the northern lords and his bastard son as well, that is why he brought them together at Winterfell with the fake wedding. He needed measure their words and actions, to know their character. There is no way a man like Roose Bolton would expect that a Marriage to a Fake Arya would cemment his claim, especially when he knows that there are 3 to possibly 4 stronger claims out there unaccounted for. No Roose does not leave loose ends in his plans. Since the beginning Roose's plans have ALWAYS left plenty of plausible deniability. Even in the Red Wedding he waits until the Frey's make the first move and the outcome is obvious before his troops move into the dining hall.

7. Roose Bolton. I think he had planned to crush Stannis outside the walls of the Dreadfort and at the same time eliminate many of the conspiring northern lords in the battle. Thus securing his title by force and allowing him to replace the dead conspiring Northern Lords with new ones that were loyal to the Dreadfort. He would have been able to paint the picture to the rest of the north anyway he chose without appearing to have any blood on his hands, the same way he crafted the Red Wedding. Also after the after the fake wedding Ramsey and Fake Arya have become expendable. I imagine he would have set up a plot where they would die (the only thing that either of them can be good for at this point) and possibly the Manderly's or the Cranog men would be responsible. Now this man never puts more than 1 egg in any basket and is only mildly annoyed when Stannis does not fall into his trap. So he falls back to a contingent plan of waiting at Winterfell, breaking Stannis and his disloyal northern lords outside the gates. Once again this plan fails only because of the weather and that really could not be expected to last as long as it did with this still being autumn.

Roose knows he is sitting on a powder keg in Winterfell. He is surrounded by enemies and he fears he will end up dead if open warfare erupts in Winterfell, but he still does not send out the Freys and White Harbor Troops until the raven arrives with the map. It is implied that Ramsey will follow also after his "Reek and Bride" but i cannot see Roose allowing Ramsey to siphon off loyal Dreadfort troops for this even if Roose allows Ramsey to leave in the first place. I believe that once word gets back to Roose, via ravenmail, that he will leave Winterfell with the vast majority of his loyal host and head either to the Dreadfort or more than likely to Wall. He will leave Winterfell to Ramsey and Ramsey to Lady Dunstin (The price of her loyalty IMHO). Two reasons for this. One. I feel Stannis can only take Winterfell, under the guise listed above, from Ramsey, as Roose would be too cautious to be fooled that way. Two. Roose, after getting the victory details, will send the Pink Letter and begin that phase of his overall plan to take the north.

8. The Pink Letter. Roose and Tywin have planned to have Jon Snow killed since the Red Wedding. Thorne, however, was too cautious to let Janos just execute Snow, out of hand, after testing the wind and finding little support from the other leaders of the Watch. So begins the plot to bring down Jon Snow. Now I honestly believe that none of those idiots at the wall would have had the brains or the patience for the events to have played out as they did. I feel that Marsh would only go along with the plan if he felt that Jon Snow broke his vows. They needed a catalyst, and that was the Pink Letter.

One. We know Ramsey does not write it, The penmanship is too fine, and suggests someone who is meticulous, where as Ramsey is Bastard born with just barely above a commoner's education. His penmanship is childish and horrid.

Two. Stannis does not write it. First he has no cause to. Second he has no need. Third it is not his way. Stannis is direct in all his correspondence and overly truthful and blunt to a fault. For those who suggest he is capable, due to the shadow creatures, I say this. In each instance that a shadow creature was used, Stannis first bluntly demanded compliance and that there would be consequences for non compliance. There is no way Stannis wrote this.

Three. I also feel this is not the work of Mance. It is true that Mance has most or possibly all the knowledge contained in the Pink Letter, However he is common born, and spent years as a ranger and wildling, and his penmanship is more than likely along the same lines as Ramsey. Now it is possible it could have been super practiced because he is a bard, I just cannot make that leap. We know Mance has an axe to grind against Jon Snow, but Jon has lived up to protecting his people and Mance knows that Jon is probably their best hope against the Others. He could have easily killed Jon at the Wall if that was his intention.

Four. Others have said Mel or other people at the Wall, but no one at the Wall has the knowledge of the details in the Pink Letter, except the possibility that Mel's visions miraculously become clear with such detail as to be able to manipulate the events. Now Mel has amazing visions, but she continues to misread them. She thinks Bran and Bloodraven are in league with the Others when its clear that they are a Song of Earth, not Ice, and the fact that they have fought a war with the Others since recorded time. She thinks the vision about the towers by the sea is Eastwatch, even though she knows the towers are not the same. Arya on a pale mare.... the list goes on. No I cannot buy into this theory either.

...That leaves Roose. This stinks of Roose Bolton. He uses Ramsey's words, he uses information taken from a spear wife or two (I do not think Mance has been caught, and I feel he has revealed himself to these women to ensure their loyalty for the mission as Rattleshirt does not command that same loyalty), The timing is important as a few things are time sensitive. If the letter sent from crofters village after the battle has no info/fake info on Arya and Theon then the Wall would be the likely destination. Now once Fake Arya gets to the Wall all bets are off and Roose would have to deal with the entire North, knowing, for certain, that Arya is not real. Now he still has deniability here, Theon vouched for her and The Lannisters sent her, but it would make the North harder to bring to heel. most inconvenient. Also, we can assume he would be informed that Jon was planning to lead a ranging that could bring thousands more allies to his side. Yes Jon could die on that ranging, but Roose cannot take that chance. Roose has to feel that Jon being Lord Commander of the Watch, is like having a Knife at his back, and the more his host grows, the longer that dagger becomes, and the more untouchable Jon becomes.

Now true to his nature Roose is going to eliminate Jon and any possible vengeance/claim to north he has, in one of three ways. Jon comes south and dies a deserters death with Roose telling him how disappointed Ned would be, and he is only doing what Ned would have done himself...., Jon dies by the Watch's hand before he comes south... oh the tragedy, or Jon goes North and Roose comes to the Wall and reluctantly, at the behest of Marsh, and for the defense of the realm, seals the gates with Jon and most of his allies on the wrong side.

As you can see the letter is a win win win for Roose, no matter how it plays out, and it even has no Official Seal to it, giving Roose total deniability, no matter the outcome. Oh there would be whispers, but Roose can easily deal with those as he already has.

Now for the TL;DL crowd. Stannis wins at crowford village and takes Winterfell also. Roose Writes Pink Letter and survives. Ramsey Dies....

[Grand Maester Tarkin]

Excellent analysis of Stannis' situation and likely tactics. I would, however, like to challenge some of Mourneblade's assertions above.

Now for the TL;DL crowd. Stannis wins at crowford village and takes Winterfell also. Roose Writes Pink Letter and survives. Ramsey Dies....

1) While I agree that Roose is likely to suspect disloyalty from some of the Northern lords, he can't possibly hope to hold the North with only Dreadfort troops. Sacrificing his least valued or least loyal troops certainly fits with Bolton's fighting style, but he can't keep pursuing this strategy forever. If he plans to sacrifice the Freys AND the Manderlys AND the Karstarks AND the Umbers AND Ramsey's men, what does that leave him with? Maybe a few hundred Dreadfort men? The best he can hope for is to hole up in a fortress and wait out the winter.

2) I think you overestimate the ease with which Roose could coordinate a NW conspiracy against Jon. First of all, Jon spends much of aDwD sending men from Castle Black on various missions and to occupy the old castles. This means that brothers are being split up and moving around a lot, as Jon reacts to the developing situation north of the Wall. Under these circumstances, it would be difficult for Roose to coordinate with anyone, because he could not be sure that a core group of conspirators would remain with Jon at Castle Black until the time came to strike. Second, with Sam and Aemon gone, only a few people in the NW are left who are qualified to handle ravens. These would mostly be maesters, and maesters are probably less likely to be the ambitious sort that Roose could easily recruit to a conspiracy. Finally, the brothers who do end up pulling an Ides of March on Jon must know that it's basically a suicide mission. Even if the conspirators make up the majority of brothers at Castle Black, they are still hopelessly outnumbered by wildlings. I think Jon's betrayers are serving some other, mysterious purpose when they stab him.

3) If Roose were to make a tactical withdrawal from Winterfell, marching his whole force to Castle Black would not make much sense tactically. Bolton would be marching deep into enemy territory without secure lines of supply or communication. Yes, Castle Black can be easily taken from the south, but it also cannot be easily held once taken. The Bolton men would be subject to wildling attack, since the wildlings would see it as an invasion of their lands in the Gift. I think his more prudent course of action, and one that would fit better with his fighting style, would be to withdraw to the Dreadfort. The Dreadfort is much closer to Winterfell, and Roose would not have to concern himself with lines of supply or communication. Plus, the Dreadfort, unlike Castle Black, is an easily defensible position.

Of course, to Roose's dismay, he will find the Dreadfort already taken by Robett Glover and the Manderly fleet...

[Mithras]

1. Karstark Men

“Can this man Mors be trusted?” asked Stannis.

Has Mors Umber bent the knee? “Your Grace should have him swear an oath before his heart tree.”

This means Stannis will have the Karstark Men swear fealty to him in front of the weirwood tree. Bran is a wild card here.

The failure of Karstark treachery is not known by Boltons yet. So they will act pro-Bolton for a while longer and return to Winterfell with the "victorious" army. Stannis will have a significant force inside WF and the rest of his army will be outside WF. He will also have the element of surprise.

2. Theon and the Tree

Jon said, “My lord father believed no man could tell a lie in front of a heart tree. The old gods know when men are lying.”

“My father believed the same,” said the Old Bear.

“I am your last hope, Theon.”

I have no hope, he thought. Yet he lowered the bow half an inch and said, “I will not run.”

“I do not speak of running. Take the black.”

“The Night’s Watch?” Theon let the bow unbend slowly and pointed the arrow at the ground.

“Ser Rodrik has served House Stark all his life, and House Stark has always been a friend to the Watch. He will not deny you. Open your gates, lay down your arms, accept his terms, and he must let you take the black.”

A brother of the Night’s Watch. It meant no crown, no sons, no wife… but it meant life, and life with honor. Ned Stark’s own brother had chosen the Watch, and Jon Snow as well.

Theon found himself wondering if he should say a prayer. Will the old gods hear me if I do? They were not his gods, had never been his gods. He was ironborn, a son of Pyke, his god was the Drowned God of the islands … but Winterfell was long leagues from the sea. It had been a lifetime since any god had heard him. He did not know who he was, or what he was, why he was still alive, why he had ever been born.

No longswords had been allowed within the hall, but every man there wore a dagger, even Theon Greyjoy. How else to cut his meat? Every time he looked at the girl who had been Jeyne Poole, he felt the presence of that steel at his side. I have no way to save her, he thought, but I could kill her easy enough. No one would expect it. I could beg her for the honor of a dance and cut her throat. That would be a kindness, wouldn’t it? And if the old gods hear my prayer, Ramsay in his wroth might strike me dead as well.

The old gods, he thought. They know me. They know my name. I was Theon of House Greyjoy. I was a ward of Eddard Stark, a friend and brother to his children. “Please.” He fell to his knees. “A sword, that’s all I ask. Let me die as Theon, not as Reek.” Tears trickled down his cheeks, impossibly warm. “I was ironborn. A son … a son of Pyke, of the islands.”

"The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."

Theon Greyjoy smiled. They know my name, he thought.

Theon already started to pray to the old gods. Stannis will try to execute Theon but Theon will be given a chance to pray before the tree. He will declare he didnot kill the Stark boys. Ramsay's sack of WF is already known. Theon will ask to take the Black if Jon approves or he will ask to be beheaded by Jon himself. I think the Northern Lords with Stannis will agree to have Theon sent to the Wall and leave his fate to Jon's hands.

ETA: Forget to mention, The Liddles with Stannis (and probably some other clans) already know that Bran was alive.

3. Stannis and the Ravens

I think Stannis will have one of the ravens sent to WF with the false defeat of Stannis at the crofter's village. And I think he sent the other to CB. I think the letter Jon read was not the original letter Stannis sent. That letter is edited on the Wall by the conspriators who killed Jon.

4. Battle of Fair Isles Revisited

I like the idea of Battle of Fair Isles rehappening at the crofter's village. GRRM likes to recreate the historical battles. For example we will see another Hammer and the Anvil at Meereen. We can also see a similar battle at Oldtown with Hightowers, Euron and JonCon.

I think another Battle of Fair Isles will be seen at Yaros. By the help of Moqorro, Victarion will trap and destroy the Volantene fleet at the straits of Yaros.

When the cliffs of Yaros appeared off their larboard bows, he found his three lost ships waiting for him, just as Moqorro had promised. Victarion gave the priest a golden torque as a reward.

Now he had a choice to make: should he risk the straits, or take the Iron Fleet around the island? The memory of Fair Isle still rankled in the iron captain’s memory. Stannis Baratheon had descended on the Iron Fleet from both north and south whilst they were trapped in the channel between the island and the mainland, dealing Victarion his most crushing defeat. But sailing around Yaros would cost him precious days. With Yunkai so near, shipping in the straits was like to be heavy, but he did not expect to encounter Yunkish warships until they were closer to Meereen.

What would the Crow’s Eye do? He brooded on that for a time, then signaled to his captains. “We sail the straits.”