How many men does Manderly have up his sleeve?

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

If we are talking about the men he can raise from his own personal demesne then it would probably be around the five thousand mark, but if we are going to attach to the mark of his own vassals and the lords that Manderly claims would follow his lead then the number is likely higher. And while we are on this topic, it is possible for him to exceed the number of the traditional strength of WH as he is recruiting amongst the refugees that Ramsay had left in his wake.

The point i have is if Manderly has nearly 5k strength then why did he only send 1750 soldiers south. Robb was in dire need for an extra 4k soldiers and hence wanted Edmure to marry Roslin, but Manderly could've provided him with that, if you think he can muster 5k soldiers.

[Free Northman Reborn]

If we are talking about the men he can raise from his own personal demesne then it would probably be around the five thousand mark, but if we are going to attach to the mark of his own vassals and the lords that Manderly claims would follow his lead then the number is likely higher. And while we are on this topic, it is possible for him to exceed the number of the traditional strength of WH as he is recruiting amongst the refugees that Ramsay had left in his wake.

When I refer to Manderly's own strength, I obviously include his vassals. "His own lands" therefore refers to all the lords sworn to him as their liege.

What I exclude, are lords that are allied to him or who will "follow his lead", without being sworn directly to him. And here I mean the likes of Widows Watch, Ramsgate, Oldcastle etc. These are powerful lords in their own right, in the case of Oldcastle and even more so in the case of Widow's Watch, each of which can raise significantly more men than the entire Night's Watch.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The point i have is if Manderly has nearly 5k strength then why did he only send 1750 soldiers south. Robb was in dire need for an extra 4k soldiers and hence wanted Edmure to marry Roslin, but Manderly could've provided him with that, if you think he can muster 5k soldiers.

The minimum contribution to a call to banners that seems acceptable from a main bannerlord seems to be in the region of 1000 men.

Some lords contributed much more than that number - like the Boltons - but no one seemed to contribute less.

Manderly was tasked to defend White Harbor, yet despite that he still contributed a respectable 1500 to Robb's army.

After Victarrion took Moat Cailin with 10,000 men, White Harbor had 10k Ironborn perched on their doorstep and Manderly had to concern himself with securing White Harbor above all else.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

The minimum contribution to a call to banners that seems acceptable from a main bannerlord seems to be in the region of 1000 men.

Some lords contributed much more than that number - like the Boltons - but no one seemed to contribute less.

Manderly was tasked to defend White Harbor, yet despite that he still contributed a respectable 1500 to Robb's army.

After Victarrion took Moat Cailin with 10,000 men, White Harbor had 10k Ironborn perched on their doorstep and Manderly had to concern himself with securing White Harbor above all else.

10k? I think you are over-estimating the IB's army.

[Ser Creighton]

That's hard to say.

White Harbor is a smaller city than KL

Smaller but still major, they built 40 war ships in a year. Sorry but that takes a lot of man power. Even at a 10th the size of KL a levy of 5000 would not be a reach and that's just for the City. Lets say 100 Men for each War Galley, he has Oldcastle, and Widows Watch, two other Noble houses, a dozen lesser lords, and 100 landed Knights.

Even with conservative figures, White Harbor is still the major population center of the North which is the largest of the 7 kingdoms, even if it is less populated than all but Dorne. White Harbor is bigger than Sun spear, and High Garden, The Twins, Winterfell, Riverrun, and all but 4 other locations in Westeros. Stannis got how many men from the Norther hill Tribes? I got to believe the major population Center of the North can easily surpass that. Hell he has 40 ships, I am sure he can man them and that is going to take some 3-4 thousand men. His own City watch, the city Levy, the refugee Levy, 100 Landed Knights and there own levies, the Levies from all his lords banner men, then mix in all the sell swords he can afford and you have rather large force.

[Jessica Rogers]

Also something else I found interesting is that Manderly only brings 100 knights with him to winterfell. It makes you wonder what Manderly is doing with his army.

I was under the impression he left them in white harbor with his son in the event that things went south for him at WF.

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

10,000 men??? Holy crap yall are saying that after the red wedding and duskendale, the Manderlys still have an armed force double that of Bolton, Ryswell and Dustin combined! They would in effect be the northern army with those numbers.

Seems too high. I would say an insufficient amount of sailors for all those ships, an infantry of 4-5K, heavy Calvary of 500-600. Enough to make Bolton nervous and fear him as his #1 rival, but not enough for him to take precautions that will put the Manderlys in check proactively.

Also, note Wyman would have sent his 1,500 best soldiers to guard his sons when they went south. Like the Umbers, the "men" he has left are probably the too young, too old and non-professional soldiers (I'm thinking 300, when Leonidas ask the Greeks "what is your profession?".

[Eddard Slark]

10,000 men??? Holy crap yall are saying that after the red wedding and duskendale, the Manderlys still have an armed force double that of Bolton, Ryswell and Dustin combined! They would in effect be the northern army with those numbers.

Seems too high. I would say an insufficient amount of sailors for all those ships, an infantry of 4-5K, heavy Calvary of 500-600. Enough to make Bolton nervous and fear him as his #1 rival, but not enough for him to take precautions that will put the Manderlys in check proactively.

Also, note Wyman would have sent his 1,500 best soldiers to guard his sons when they went south. Like the Umbers, the "men" he has left are probably the too young, too old and non-professional soldiers (I'm thinking 300, when Leonidas ask the Greeks "what is your profession?".

Well Manderly probably has double the wealth of the dustins, boltons, and ryswells combined, so it stands that he can field a lot of men. Besides, I always got the impression that the dustins and ryswells had only a token force at winterfell. Aren't their actual armies (whats left of them) elsewhere? I mean bolton's army alone coming back north had 4k in it, and thats not including the 1.5k-2k freys. IIRC Bolton's allied force at winterfell is about 6k, so if you accept that 5/6's of this is just from bolton and the freys, it means every other Northern house only has like a wedding honor guard there (100-200 a piece). This ultimately begs the question then of WHERE THE FUCK IS EVERYONE ELSE?

[borgenone]

Well Manderly probably has double the wealth of the dustins, boltons, and ryswells combined, so it stands that he can field a lot of men. Besides, I always got the impression that the dustins and ryswells had only a token force at winterfell. Aren't their actual armies (whats left of them) elsewhere? I mean bolton's army alone coming back north had 4k in it, and thats not including the 1.5k-2k freys. IIRC Bolton's allied force at winterfell is about 6k, so if you accept that 5/6's of this is just from bolton and the freys, it means every other Northern house only has like a wedding honor guard there (100-200 a piece). This ultimately begs the question then of WHERE THE FUCK IS EVERYONE ELSE?

Hiding outside winterfell in the 40feet deep snow!

Building snow castles and having snowball fights!

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Well Manderly probably has double the wealth of the dustins, boltons, and ryswells combined, so it stands that he can field a lot of men. Besides, I always got the impression that the dustins and ryswells had only a token force at winterfell. Aren't their actual armies (whats left of them) elsewhere? I mean bolton's army alone coming back north had 4k in it, and thats not including the 1.5k-2k freys. IIRC Bolton's allied force at winterfell is about 6k, so if you accept that 5/6's of this is just from bolton and the freys, it means every other Northern house only has like a wedding honor guard there (100-200 a piece). This ultimately begs the question then of WHERE THE FUCK IS EVERYONE ELSE?

Greywater Watch.

[ninewinter]

Even with conservative figures, White Harbor is still the major population center of the North which is the largest of the 7 kingdoms, even if it is less populated than all but Dorne. White Harbor is bigger than Sun spear, and High Garden, The Twins, Winterfell, Riverrun, and all but 4 other locations in Westeros.

Are we sure that having a city means the Manderlys have a greater population than HighGarden? I'm sure the Tyrells, though controlling no city, boast dozens of castles, towns, and villages, and with that, more levies than Manderlys could muster. Hence, why still be clale the Lord of the Reach? And we see in Cats chapter how majority of Renly's host bear the sigil of the Tyrells.

Stannis got how many men from the Norther hill Tribes? I got to believe the major population Center of the North can easily surpass that. Hell he has 40 ships, I am sure he can man them and that is going to take some 3-4 thousand men. His own City watch, the city Levy, the refugee Levy, 100 Landed Knights and there own levies, the Levies from all his lords banner men, then mix in all the sell swords he can afford and you have rather large force.

Excellent point. Stannis gained 3k in the mountain tribes. I assumed territories, much densely populated such as the city and the locations around White Harbour means at least triple that number.

Perhaps yes, White Harbour can field up to 10-15k. But were not yet sure about the quality of half of these forces. How could they be trained that quickly, and be armed well is a question. So IMHO only around 6k might be the Lord's Manderlys current available strength.

[ninewinter]

I wonder though, why didnt Manderly simply conspire to rule the North?

I know it contains a lot of problems.

He's a worshipper of the seven.

He's still quite a southener in other older northern house.

There is the threat in the IT. Of ocurse, Im not tlaking about being the King in the North. It's too much the risk, but why dont he conspire to be the lord paramount? After all, the family of starks are lost, their people murdered or refugees, and their ancient fortress a ruin. White Harbour has better chance in controlling the North than other family.

[BryndenTullys#1fan]

His grand daughter would tell you its b/c of the pact they made with the Starks.

But, in a decimated North, if I had a force over 10K and the 2nd largest navy in Westoros, I sure wouldn't expose myself to Hosteens blade or be within the same castle as Roose. Which is why I don't think he has that much.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Roose brought 4k Northmen back North with him.

The Freys brought around 1500 men.

For Roose to have a total of around 7000, it means all the other lords at Winterfell only brought around 1500 between them. That is less than 200 per lord.

So apart from the Boltons and Freys, the other lords only brought honour guards with them. The bulk of the North's forces are therefore neither with Roose nor with Stannis, but at White Harbor, Widow's Watch, Barrowton, Oldcastle, the Rills and all the other Northern keeps, waiting for a Stark to return to Winterfell abd raise the North in his own name.

[Ramsay Gimp]

For Roose to have a total of around 7000, it means all the other lords at Winterfell only brought around 1500 between them. That is less than 200 per lord.

So apart from the Boltons and Freys, the other lords only brought honour guards with them. The bulk of the North's forces are therefore neither with Roose nor with Stannis, but at White Harbor, Widow's Watch, Barrowton, Oldcastle, the Rills and all the other Northern keeps, waiting for a Stark to return to Winterfell abd raise the North in his own name.

Not to mention Wintefell in its current state (burned/ruined in winter) could never house the full strength of all these Houses.

Which is why I find the theories that Manderly's men will somehow rebel and take the castle from the inside, in collaboration with Stannis, pretty far-fetched. Bolton outnumbers him vastly at Winterfell itself

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Manderly himself said that he has more heavy cavalry than any Lord north of the Neck, even after his losses in the South. Assuming all northern Lords have a similar composition (unlikely, but lets roll with it because the information is lacking), he needs to have more men than the Boltons - who got at least 4,500 men who are definitely Boltons (Roose's 3,500 + Ramsay's castle garrison from the attack on Winterfell), maybe 6,000+ (Ramsay's 2,000 from the attack on Moat Cailin, but that could include Hornwoods). That puts Manderly at ~7,000 men in his army alone.

Then, he has almost fifty war galleys. These got to have ~100 oars each (the standard for the Royal Fleet). In medieval sea battles, the ratio soldiers/sailors/oarsmen was often 4/3/4. Which put another 5,000 soldiers into his fleet. Furthermore, the sailors and oarsmen may not be fully trained and armored for battle, but they are free men doing active military duty. They can go into battle as well.

So, 12,000 full-time soldiers minimum, another ~6000 men armed personnel.

10k? I think you are over-estimating the IB's army.

See above. The Iron Fleet has maybe 80 oars per war galley (slightly smaller than the Royal Fleet) and is 100 ships strong. And the Ironborn deploy their oarsmen in battle. That's 8,000 oarsmen already, sailors and soldiers not yet included.

10,000 men??? Holy crap yall are saying that after the red wedding and duskendale, the Manderlys still have an armed force double that of Bolton, Ryswell and Dustin combined! They would in effect be the northern army with those numbers.

Seems too high. I would say an insufficient amount of sailors for all those ships, an infantry of 4-5K, heavy Calvary of 500-600. Enough to make Bolton nervous and fear him as his #1 rival, but not enough for him to take precautions that will put the Manderlys in check proactively.

Also, note Wyman would have sent his 1,500 best soldiers to guard his sons when they went south. Like the Umbers, the "men" he has left are probably the too young, too old and non-professional soldiers (I'm thinking 300, when Leonidas ask the Greeks "what is your profession?".

Bolton and Frey are the only ones in Winterfell that brought an army, everybody else got a honor guard, to share the dancing floor.

And the Boltons on their own got at least 4,500, maybe up to 6,000!

Wyman had two, maybe three years to train the replacements. They weren't ready when Robb marched south, but they are now.

I wonder though, why didnt Manderly simply conspire to rule the North?

I know it contains a lot of problems.

He's a worshipper of the seven.

He's still quite a southener in other older northern house.

There is the threat in the IT. Of ocurse, Im not tlaking about being the King in the North. It's too much the risk, but why dont he conspire to be the lord paramount? After all, the family of starks are lost, their people murdered or refugees, and their ancient fortress a ruin. White Harbour has better chance in controlling the North than other family.

Because the Northmen wouldn't stand for it and outnumber him several magnitudes. They are outsiders, they can't rule the North. But they are the most powerful House as well, meaning they won't get anything out of playing second fiddle to another rebel House rising against the Starks. And that means the Starks can always count on them.

Quite a neat ploy by the old King in the North who gave them White Harbour.

Roose brought 4k Northmen back North with him.

The Freys brought around 1500 men.

For Roose to have a total of around 7000, it means all the other lords at Winterfell only brought around 1500 between them. That is less than 200 per lord.

So apart from the Boltons and Freys, the other lords only brought honour guards with them. The bulk of the North's forces are therefore neither with Roose nor with Stannis, but at White Harbor, Widow's Watch, Barrowton, Oldcastle, the Rills and all the other Northern keeps, waiting for a Stark to return to Winterfell abd raise the North in his own name.

Manderly brought "100 knights and 300 men-at-arms" as a honor guard. Now, he is the most powerful Lord in the North by a fair margin, which means he has to bring a proportionate amount of men in his honor guard. The others may have more like 100 each in total.

[Ser Creighton]

Not to mention Wintefell in its current state (burned/ruined in winter) could never house the full strength of all these Houses.

Which is why I find the theories that Manderly's men will somehow rebel and take the castle from the inside, in collaboration with Stannis, pretty far-fetched. Bolton outnumbers him vastly at Winterfell itself

Also Bolton and Frey have large contingents of men because they need to keep the other lords in live via a show of force and because Stannis is in the north. No way the Boltons would let Manderly anywhere near Winterfell with 5000 men.

According to the books a Westeros Warship commands at least 100 oars, plus a large contingent of troops on top of that. I would easily suggest 150 men per ship, his city guard and watch which he fortified on Ned Starks Orders is probably over 1000 easy and probably closer to 2000. Then his land force made up of all those lesser lords and Landed knights plus 2-3 larger houses to boot. He is sitting on 4-5 thousand easy. If Roose can pull 5000 then the most powerful and richest Lord of the North with the largest population by far to draw from should easily be able to top that.

Manderly didn't send the Bulk of his forces south because his specific orders were to Hold White Harbor, at worst he was Robbs main reserve. A year of training, a year of building, a year of storing, and a year of preparing. Manderly should be in great shape. His navel force alone suggests more than 5000 men.

[Eddard Slark]

We still need to subtract Manderly's losses from his total though. With that said he is down about 2k men (1.5k in the south and I'd say another 500 from Ramsey sacking winterfell). That brings his numbers back into the 8 to 10k range if he has as many men as some theorize. Add another 1k in reserves from the other noble houses that might join him, and Manderly could be sitting pretty with an allied army of 15k outside winterfell

[Bright Blue Eyes]

We still need to subtract Manderly's losses from his total though. With that said he is down about 2k men (1.5k in the south and I'd say another 500 from Ramsey sacking winterfell). That brings his numbers back into the 8 to 10k range if he has as many men as some theorize. Add another 1k in reserves from the other noble houses that might join him, and Manderly could be sitting pretty with an allied army of 15k outside winterfell

Nope, we need to add them, since pretty much all estimations are current estimations based on the end of Dance.

Actually, we don't need to do anything of that kind, since Manderly may have lost 2,000 men, but at the same time recruited heavily, making his numbers at the start of the books pretty much impossible to guess.

[bemused]

Wait a minute... I think by Theon's estimation ( and it has been pointed out that Theon tends to round up ) that the northmen Roose brought home with him numbered no more than 2 out of 10 that Robb took south... This should not be more than 2000 ( mostly Bolton , but not all) ...plus the 1500 Freys, plus whatever number Ramsay brought from the Dreadfort .

Theon's later estimate to Stannis is 6,000 or more for Roose ( but maybe not more ,if he

does round up ) and he'd be including all the other Lord's honor guards

..(I never know if the spoiler tags are still apros pos or not .. )

However , Roose has just divested himself of 2,000 , by sending out the Freys and Manderly's men .. unless Ramsay does follow them out in an attempt to regain "Arya" and Theon , which I think is very likely , which would also remove many , if not all, of Ramsay's forces... leaving Roose outnumbering the other northmen inside WF at no more than 2 - 1

Manderly could have men hidden outside WF, but I've come to think that there will also be a force entering through the crypts to combine with the other northmen inside, and retake WF from within..preempting Stannis. Thinking in terms of who should hold Winterfell, Stannis would only be a lesser evil , to their minds...If they can take it first ( which they have also had a year or more to be working towards ). Once they have it , Stannis could be welcomed as an honoured ally.