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Sansa's Opening Move


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#1 Lady Howell

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 02:59 AM

Okay, the general consensus is that Sansa will somehow gain control of the Vale, and of course, their fully intact army. But what will she do once she has this army?

 

What will her opening move be? Head North immediately to take it back, or start with the Riverlands? Head to the Wall and help Jon if she finds out about that whole mess? Maybe get revenge of Cersei in the south before heading North at all? 

 

To kick things off, I'll say I believe she'll retake the Riverlands first. It'll be the first campaign of many, I'm sure. But, of course Cersei isn't going to lie down and take that. Cersei's power lies at court, however, and the most external support she gets from outside the Crownlands comes from the Westerlands, which she technically controlls at the moment. The strategic thing to do would be for Sansa to take the Westerlands with her now combined forces of the Vale and Riverlands, and install Lancel--who is conveniently seated at a holdfast in the Riverlands--as the Lord of Casterly Rock and use him as puppet ruler. Sansa then can force Lancel to disown Cersei from house Lannister and cut off their financial and military support and use it for her own. 

 

With the combined might of three regions, shakey as her grip will be on all three of them, Sansa's next move would most logically be the Reach. She may try and take a crack at the Reach and cut off the other significant ally of the Crown, the Tyrells. However, I believe this could easily be solved through a secret alliance rather than actual warfare. In exchange for Margeary's safety and retaining power after Cersei's downfall, as well as perhaps some help with the Ironborn, the Tyrells agree to pretend to be fighting off Sansa's campaign through their region and losing against her. They allow her to pass through their territory with some "spoils of war" (food, weapons, and other supplies, as well as perhaps some troops in the guise of rebel turncloaks). 

 

After passing through the Reach, Sansa's forces would probably head directly to King's Landing and lay a siege to the city. Or they could Trojan Horse it like Tywin Lannister, which would probably be smarter and take less time. The end game here would be Cersei's ultimate downfall and the Lannister's hold on the crown completely disappearing, but i won't go into detail on that.

 

After King's Landing is taken, Sansa will be, by all rights, the ruler of Westeros, but I doubt she would stay long in the city. After a few weeks, she and her forces would probably head immediately North to reclaim it. This would be far easier done now than if Sansa had tried to do so with just her Vale army and with Cersei most likely coming after her as soon as she surfaced. Now, Sansa has a much, much larger army, Cersei would be disposed of, and the Boltons would be totally screwed with the Iron Throne no longer backing them.

 

There might be conflict with Stannis in the North, and Sansa may eventually have to deal with the Ironborn as well, but I think the immediate threat of the Others would put those matters of the backburner for some time. When Daenerys shows up--if she ever does (insert eye-roll)--I don't think Sansa would be opposed to giving up the Iron Throne itself, but the North, Riverlands, and Vale. Hell no. 

 

I think the conflict with Daenerys might be the final military/power conflict for Sansa in the story. Whoever wins is up in the air, considering all that could happen on Daenerys end hypothetically once she gets to Westeros. But I think it would like to think it ends with Sansa keeping the North, Riverlands, and Vale for herself, while Daerneys gets everything else, and the Westerlands, while not technically Sansa's, would remain in her political strangle hold thanks to Lancel. 

 

 

What do you guys think will happen? 



#2 Machinist0089

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 04:16 AM

since when is sansa the new dany haha, please explain how shes going to directly control the vale lol



#3 Free Northman Reborn

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 04:23 AM

The problem is that you are focusing exclusively on Sansa's arc, and ignoring the plot developments related to other key emerging players - specifically Aegon and Euron.

 

It is highly likely that Aegon is going to have the Stormlands and Dorne under his command shortly. And that much of the Reach will flock to him as well.

 

More than likely Aegon will sit on the Iron Throne when Dany arrives, setting up the new Dance of the Dragons. Sansa does not fit into this picture - other than as a potential  ally to one of the two main players of the South - Aegon and Dany.

 

Personally I think Sansa will be a powerful player, but not in a bid for the Iron Throne, which is doomed in any case - but in the War against the Others. 



#4 Red Raven

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 04:30 AM

Her next move is figuring out how to keep Robin from latching onto her breast with one hand while holding a lemon cake in the other.



#5 Machinist0089

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 04:36 AM

The problem is that you are focusing exclusively on Sansa's arc, and ignoring the plot developments related to other key emerging players - specifically Aegon and Euron.

 

It is highly likely that Aegon is going to have the Stormlands and Dorne under his command shortly. And that much of the Reach will flock to him as well.

 

More than likely Aegon will sit on the Iron Throne when Dany arrives, setting up the new Dance of the Dragons. Sansa does not fit into this picture - other than as a potential  ally to one of the two main players of the South - Aegon and Dany.

 

Personally I think Sansa will be a powerful player, but not in a bid for the Iron Throne, which is doomed in any case - but in the War against the Others. 

 

i can see her/the vale and allies, holding/trying to hold the others back in the riverlands or vale, trying to retake/control the north and being forced to retreat because of the others or allying up with a alliance of houses to fight the others, if the vale goes on a military strike against other houses/factions in any form it will be short lived in my opinion, it would be very stupid as well without a alliance



#6 Lady Howell

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 05:09 AM

since when is sansa the new dany haha, please explain how shes going to directly control the vale lol

 

Not directly, but Robin is basically wrapped around her finger, even calling her his new mother, and if Littlefinger were to be overthrown by her, as many suspect will happen, she becomes Robin's Lady Protector and can manipulate him to her own designs. Seriously, all she would have to do is charm the kid a bit and he'd sign any declaration she puts in front of him. This is probably the reason we have this kid at all in the story, so Sansa will have someone young and naive enough in a position of power to use to her advantage. 



#7 barmyscouser

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 06:27 AM

Getting the Knights of the Vale down .the high road could be a tough slog given that the Hill Clans are armed to the teeth with Lannister steel.  But once they reached the King's Road the obvious move would be to turn north and teach Lord Frey a lesson in hospitality.

 

Bronze Yohn wanted to help Robb.  If Sweetrobin, Harry and Yohn are all on board, the rest of the vale will fall in line.  

 

The only thing is, while Sansa's learned a lot since Ned died, she's years away from playing in LFs league.  Realistically, she would need to get him on her team as well, and I hate to think what that entails.



#8 Mrs. Tyrion Lannister

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 07:10 AM

Personally, I hope her first move is to extinguish House Frey. In addition to being really satisfying, it would also give her control over the bridge, which we have learned is of great importance in terms of war and power.

 

But I have a hard time imagining her making decisions and commanding troops, unless say for instance the Blackfish pops up in the Vale and comes to her aid.

 

This is interesting to think about, anyway. Perhaps she could even pick up the mountain clans, what with being Wife of Tyrion and all.

 

ETA: Apparently vindictive minds work alike. :)


Edited by Mrs. Tyrion Lannister, 31 January 2014 - 07:13 AM.


#9 Winnief

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 08:56 AM

 

 

Personally I think Sansa will be a powerful player, but not in a bid for the Iron Throne, which is doomed in any case - but in the War against the Others. 

 

Exactly.  She doesn't give a damn about the Iron Throne, (in fact I think as far as she's concerned if she never steps foot in KL again it will be too soon, and succession games are just awful,) but she will care about a horrific threat like the Others and what it means especially to the North.

 

I think Sansa's primary object will be to go North, to team up with Jon-hopefully, with some Vale forces in tow.



#10 barmyscouser

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 10:27 AM

I hadn't really thought about Sansa killing LF Arya style.  Just take him off the board.  But could she out-con him?  He's been doing this longer, but she might be his blindspot.  Once Petyr is your enemy you'd have to kill him.  Alive, he would never not be dangerous.

 

Here's a plan.  Harry comes to the  gates of the moon to meet his potential betrothed. Meanwhile, Alayne makes an aliance with Mya who makes an alliance with Lothar.  At the meeting, Lothar stabs LF and the guards arrest Harry. 



#11 Cas Stark

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 10:43 AM

I'm sorry, while I believe that Sansa will be LF's undoing and that Chekov's hairnet is going to come into play one way or the other, Sansa as a battle commander, directing the armies of the Vale would be unbelievably out of character and wholly ridiculous, unless the BF comes and takes over on her behalf.



#12 adiman83

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 10:58 AM

Personally, I hope her first move is to extinguish House Frey. In addition to being really satisfying, it would also give her control over the bridge, which we have learned is of great importance in terms of war and power.

 

But I have a hard time imagining her making decisions and commanding troops, unless say for instance the Blackfish pops up in the Vale and comes to her aid.

 

This is interesting to think about, anyway. Perhaps she could even pick up the mountain clans, what with being Wife of Tyrion and all.

 

ETA: Apparently vindictive minds work alike. :)

 

So we would have Sansa as Lady of the Eyrie and of the Crossing!! That's quite some power there but I don't think she could hold it on her own without some good advisers and allies.   



#13 sgolvera

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 12:38 PM

I just don't see Sansa having the gumption to make any kind of move.  She is so easily manipulated and naïve.  Something seriously profound will have to happen to her to get her going.  But I do think she would only be interested in the North and I'd like to see her get revenge once she opens her eyes.



#14 OldGimletEye

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 01:03 PM

If Sansa does take control of the Vale, I always assumed her moves would depend a lot on her knowledge of whether Jon or Rickon were alive. I do think her main aim would be to get the North back for the Starks. Not sure though how it would all go down.

 

And no I don't think Sansa would be taking the field as battle commander. Just not her thing. However, I think she might be able to acquire some able battle commanders that would be loyal to her. Perhaps the Blackfish or one of the Royces or Sandor? There maybe others. 



#15 Broken Fox

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 01:07 PM

Queen of the North.

 

I don't see Sansa as a "Player" so much as a person that learned to spot the tricks. I think of her in the future as a ruler like Ned. Still honorable and straight, only politically savvy and not so naive.



#16 Tynned Lannistark

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 01:14 PM

I don't think Sansa is very interested in gaining power.

What she would probably like the most is to meet her family again, which is mostly impossible.

Perhaps she would like to try and save "Arya" from Ramsay Bolton.



#17 Broken Fox

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 01:19 PM

I can't see Sansa not gaining power. She was put through hell for a reason.



#18 Machinist0089

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 01:57 PM

 

Not directly, but Robin is basically wrapped around her finger, even calling her his new mother, and if Littlefinger were to be overthrown by her, as many suspect will happen, she becomes Robin's Lady Protector and can manipulate him to her own designs. Seriously, all she would have to do is charm the kid a bit and he'd sign any declaration she puts in front of him. This is probably the reason we have this kid at all in the story, so Sansa will have someone young and naive enough in a position of power to use to her advantage. 

 

nah dude, robin will be killed even though he could be littlefingers son, probably under the cover of his illness, wouldnt surprise me if he was forced by littlefinger to publicly have a shaking fit by poisoning him or telling him the truth about his mother maybe both, if it was done publicly littlefinger couldnt be blamed for killing him behind closed doors, he might be killed at sansa wedding or at some vale meeting, theres no long term plans for him and hes not needed littlefinger has sansa and hes already controling the lords of the vale, hes just in the way for sansa/harry the heir and littlefinger



#19 barmyscouser

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 02:04 PM

Bronze Yohn is on record for wanting to drive the Lannisters out of the Riverlands.  Charming the old coot would be like shooting fish.



#20 Jiriki

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 02:15 PM

Readers expect Sansa to assert herself, triumph over Littlefinger, and help save the day. Ergo George will kill her off.

 

 

(I say that half-jokingly, but George is known for writing shocking death scenes. Imagine the irony of following Sansa for so many books while she's been in hiding, presumably to be unveiled at some point, but then is simply quietly killed off, no one aware of whatever happened to her)