The Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 4! (FFC-DwD)

[bemused]

Ragnorak .. nice post !

I'm all for the feline observer in KL ;) , so I think BR could well know about Slynt , Tywin's machinations , what Thorne got up to in KL ,etc.etc..( all cause for concern) .... not to mention details of Sansa's and Arya's journeys .

And I love that however all-seeing and powerful he may be , BR's particular limitations mean that the characters he supports must still make their own way.. and he can never be sure that his best laid plans won't gang a gley.

[Bran Vras]

@Paper Waver

Exactly! Quod Erat Demonstrandum on whether Aemon was able to organize the trick.

The destination of Sam’s journey is a room just below the white rookery of the Ravenry in Oldtown. So I suppose the feud between the white ravens and the black ones is a point we can legitimately discuss (later) in this thread. Are there two ancient races inhabiting the ravens? Is there anything comparable to Mormont’s raven among the black ravens of Oldtown?

Will the Sam re-read include the prologue of AFfC? Perhaps it should, since much of what happens in Samwell V, AFfC takes root in there.

@Lummel@Ragnorak

You seem both reticent to the notion that Aemon ruthlessly gave Jon Snow the command of the Watch on the basis of the image he projected in AGoT. Hasn't Aemon been a moving target for our understanding as the story progressed? (From the top of my head.)

• In AGoT, we see in Aemon a marginal, forgotten relic of the past. A benevolent, but powerless man.
  
• In ACoK, we learn that he refused the Crown, in odd circumstances that raise questions on his presence at the Wall.
  
• In the Hedge Knight, we see what a nest of vipers the Targaryen family was a century ago. Hence a context for the choosing of 233.
  
• In ASoS, Aemon plays kingmaker with Jon Snow, which in turn raises the question of how exactly Egg came to the Throne in 233. Furthermore, he shares a cultural background with Melisandre and understands her doomsaying (which might be a sign that he has a sense of the true mission of the Watch, which in turn perhaps led him to put Jon in charge).
  
• In The Mystery Knight, we learn that Aemon had a dragon egg.
  
• Then, we have a series of further reveals in AFfC: Aemon does compare Jon to Egg. He came to the Wall with Bloodraven, who would soon take power at the Wall. He corresponded with Rhaegar. He had a passion for dragons all his life and his final project is to help Daenerys.
  
• In Oldtown, we hear that « He has lived through more history than Archmaester Perestan has ever learned» (probably another reference to 233). «Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood was why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can.»
  

Marwyn’s question could even be taken as a question to the reader. It’s noticeable that little of all this information has been dispensed willingly by Aemon, and that the image of the benevolent and innocent old man remained all along in the eyes of Jon and Sam (and of the reader!). But Marwyn's "He could not be trusted" resonates with what Aemon told Tyrion of hardly ever having been called kind.

Magic is subtle because this fantasy story is about characters and we don't want their problems to vanish in a cabinet or their solutions to be pulled out of a hat.

Sam got Jon the votes so it isn't as if the magical raven swayed the election. Would there have been the avalanche of votes for Jon we see described without the raven? Maybe not, but Sam got him the two-thirds needed to win through honest old fashioned political lying! One could read the passage as Bloodraven warging a raven to set the tone as Jon is elected LC which is not a small thing, but it never rises to the level of a magical operator stealing the election for Jon-- that's done by our POV character Sam. This balance isn't an easy thing to accomplish as a writer.

This is nicely put. Since my long post, this discussion has made me change my mind on whether the raven was a determinant factor in Jon’s victory (what you say seems right). I can repeat the suggestion I have put forward a couple of times: the raven incident, which at face value has been taken as the sign that Jon was chosen by the gods, could very well turn against him as the proof that he earned his command by some sorcery. My perspective is different on one small point. Had Sam not been there, Aemon would have sent someone else. In other words, using Sam was perhaps just a convenient point of view for GRRM to tell the story.

@bemused

Whether Stannis really thinks the election fraudulent is of little importance (I see little reason to doubt it though, especially since it seems to resonate with the passage where Stannis acknowledges his recognition of Aemon). Our judgment of the fairness of the election does not matter much either.

What matters is that there is a narrative circulating in the Night’s Watch that describes the election as fraudulent. Jon dismisses this narrative out of hand, which is, I think, a mistake.

[Ragnorak]

@Lummel@Ragnorak

You seem both reticent to the notion that Aemon ruthlessly gave Jon Snow the command of the Watch on the basis of the image he projected in AGoT. Hasn't Aemon been a moving target for our understanding as the story progressed? (From the top of my head.)

A quick reply as I need to begin my day...

I don't have any problem with Aemon as a ruthless figure or with Aemon intentionally trying to move events to make Jon the LC. I think Aemon had to have done something otherwise we run into the same problem from the other end of the spectrum in that he is acting pure and dove-like in his own maester's oath. The issue is specifically with Aemon being ruthless in a way that keeps his hands clean. I would expect whatever ruthlessness he manifests to be done so in the spirit of the raven side of the raven/dove speech. Something about Aemon as a puppetmaster pulling on Sam's strings bothers me. So I have an issue with Aemon invisibly manipulating Sam into doing X, but not necessarily any issue with Aemon flat out telling Sam to go do X or even far far worse than X. It is really a question of methodology and the nature of the acting rather than any issue to do with the specific actions-- at least for me.

[Lummel]

...

@Lummel@Ragnorak

You seem both reticent to the notion that Aemon ruthlessly gave Jon Snow the command of the Watch on the basis of the image he projected in AGoT. Hasn't Aemon been a moving target for our understanding as the story progressed? (From the top of my head.)

• In AGoT, we see in Aemon a marginal, forgotten relic of the past. A benevolent, but powerless man.

In ACoK, we learn that he refused the Crown, in odd circumstances that raise questions on his presence at the Wall.

In the Hedge Knight, we see what a nest of vipers the Targaryen family was a century ago. Hence a context for the choosing of 233.

In ASoS, Aemon plays kingmaker with Jon Snow, which in turn raises the question of how exactly Egg came to the Throne in 233. Furthermore, he shares a cultural background with Melisandre and understands her doomsaying (which might be a sign that he has a sense of the true mission of the Watch, which in turn perhaps led him to put Jon in charge).

In The Mystery Knight, we learn that Aemon had a dragon egg.

Then, we have a series of further reveals in AFfC: Aemon does compare Jon to Egg. He came to the Wall with Bloodraven, who would soon take power at the Wall. He corresponded with Rhaegar. He had a passion for dragons all his life and his final project is to help Daenerys.

In Oldtown, we hear that « He has lived through more history than Archmaester Perestan has ever learned» (probably another reference to 233). «Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood was why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can.»

Marwyn’s question could even be taken as a question to the reader. It’s noticeable that little of all this information has been dispensed willingly by Aemon, and that the image of the benevolent and innocent old man remained all along in the eyes of Jon and Sam (and of the reader!). But Marwyn's "He could not be trusted" resonates with what Aemon told Tyrion of hardly ever having been called kind...

What could not be trusted means in that context is open to interpretation, because of what he is, what he thinks, what he is interested in, because of his cunning and manipulative ways etc etc and the 'because of his blood' points to the simple fact that he was a targaryen or was of the mysterious blood of the dragon which in turn suggests prejudice rather than personality being the root of the problem

I don't see Aemon as benevolent either, but nor do I see him as a manipulator pulling strings or intervening in the election. Clearly he is interested in Jon and I wouldn't be surprised if he suspected that Jon might well become Lord Commander at some point - but then the Watch doesn't attract that many good candidates.

Assuming that Aemon plays king maker in this or any other election offers the promise of making clear one thing - how the raven got in the kettle - but at the cost of introducing further mysteries and complexities: why do it at all - what is the benefit from Aemon's POV, either being a warg or knowing that the bird was warged and would behave in a certain way (I recall the white ravens too, but that would require the bird, Aemon and Jon to practise together so either we're back to warging or have to assume an off page conspiracy including the POV character) assuming knowledge that the bird is warged then opens up further grey zones of speculation and finally it means that nothing that Aemon says can be taken at face value since everything is part of his manipulations potentially - which is worse then where we are with Varys at least there is a consensus view that he speaks in technical truths!

It's not the basis of the image so much as your proposal requires that we turn the character upside down for minimal gain to explain something that in my view isn't a problem in the first place.

There's a simple factor that links all your bullet points as it is without having to assume that Aemon is a cross between Bloodraven and Varys when it comes to political manipulation but for reasons of his own is mouldering on the wall and that is that he is a Targaryen. Again when it comes to his death we don't get hints of forgotten nefarious deeds of old that might suggest he was an election fixer simply a fixation on the same Targaryen themes - Egg and Daenerys and Dragons. Which is in contrast to the death of Hoster Tully when his nefarious past is made clear. So I don't personally see the need based on the series so far to take an interesting background figure and to assume that they were a political prime mover.

Naturally everybody is free to make up their own minds and the joy of rereads is that it throws up ideas from a range of different view points.

We are going to do the prologue to AFFC as part of the Sam reread - probably out of book order as the penultimate chapter and of course there is more Aemon in the Sam reread.

[bemused]

Bran.. I agree that Stannis' opinion of the election ( and how much or how little he knows about Aemon ) is pretty inconsequential here. It's an open question and I'm more than happy to drop it. It all had to do with our back and forth on POVs and it's fruitless to keep it going.

Aemon is another matter. I don't think Stannis' two comments are meant to show what he knows so much as they are meant to resonate with us , and get us thinking about what actually went on with the election , and what it means..( obviously, this has worked ).

I think Aemon as a true puppet master, is perhaps a step too far .. My current view is that , like Mormont , Aemon "knows his men" ( Sam , Mallister , Pyke, Thorne ,Slynt , Marsh ,etc.). They are fairly predictable to him , as Jon was when he intended to leave the Wall. I would have no problem with Aemon giving Sam explicit instructions ( we know he took an overt hand when Thorne and Slynt wanted to execute Jon ), except that we don't see him do it , and Sam clearly believes he's lying ( or the next thing to it ) when he lets Mallister and Pyke believe he was sent by Aemon.

After Jon alerts Sam to what's "been going on for days", Sam checks the figures , then takes his assessment and concerns to Aemon. In their discussion ,Aemon can see Sam has a clear understanding and only needs to point out to Sam that his own hands are tied, and the rest is Sam thinking on his feet.

It may be that Aemon's earlier declaration to Jon reflects his thinking long term, although it seems temporary at the time..

“Yes, Jon. It need not be for long. Only until such time as the garrison returns. Donal chose you, and Qhorin Halfhand before him. Lord Commander Mormont made you his steward. You are a son of Winterfell, a nephew of Benjen Stark. It must be you or no one. The Wall is yours, Jon Snow.”

...If so ,he wouldn't need to explain his choice to Sam. He knows Sam can think of those same points in Jon's favour ...as indeed Sam does... and he certainly knows that Sam's loyalties would lead him to Jon at any rate.

Aemon and Bloodraven must surely have formed a tight tandem in the past , but we don't know how , why or exactly when BR arrived at his current location. At the same time , we don't know when Aemon became blind , which raises the question of when he stopped corresponding with Rhaegar ..pre-Lyanna ? ...Was there a point when their correspondence became more guarded ? There may have come a time when Aemon would not have wanted his private correspondence to be read to him by another. It seems he was already blind by the time of RR because when telling Jon of how he was tested, he says ... "My ravens would bring the news from the south, words darker than their wings, the ruin of my House, the death of my kin, disgrace and desolation. What could I have done, old, blind, frail?"

I think Aemon seems to have a some understanding or view of the importance of Starks to the NW, but whether this extends to an informed knowledge of any possible magic-related reason for that, or if there truly is one , can't be known. ( I think there must be, but it has yet to be explained. )

He may well be aware of the past Stark boy LCs , and may know ( though we do not) whether their elections coincided with the onset of a winter cycle.. We don't know how far he'd managed to wade through the morass that is the library / records vault before his sight failed him...He may or may not have had opinions on the possible upside / downside of The King Who Knelt...and on and on.

We don't know how much Bloodraven knew before he was wed to the tree, or if he and Aemon shared the same knowledge and were of one mind ...Aemon's focus may have been more on dragon lore, etc. , while BR..well , look where he is. After he and Aemon became separated, both became severely hampered by physical limitations. As things stand, BR is in a much better position to know what is happening around Aemon than the reverse.... Of course, I'm still open to wherever the story takes us from here.

The rest will come up as we go along , but actually ,I don't think the accusations of election rigging are the catalyst for dramatic developments in Jon's storyline ( Jon's view of the situation will be coming right up ), and I do think he took some steps to try to counteract the negative drumbeat against him.. I feel there's an important misstep coming up on his part.. but this isn't it, IMO.

[Bran Vras]

We all agree that there is a range of interpretation of Aemon’s agency. At the minimum, he influenced Jon's election. That raises questions but doesn’t prove that previous elections or the succession process of 233 were marred in a similar manner.

In any case, it seems worthwhile to reflect more on Aemon. I see a man who has been repeatedly excluded. Excluded from his family at an early age, excluded from the hierarchy at the Citadel, excluded from the Realm by being sent to the Wall. Consequently Aemon had to renounce a life as a Targaryen prince, renounce a place among the archmaesters, and renounce the crown of the Seven Kingdoms. Quite a destiny. In each case, it could be argued that he was excluded because he was perceived as dangerous: first as a superfluous and particularly intelligent prince of the blood in a dynasty that had known catastrophic succession conflicts, then as an outsider in an institution that distrusted (and perhaps actively worked against) the Targaryens, finally as having a claim to the Iron Throne. Whether the perceptions of danger were justified is an open question (I am reluctant to go over Mormont’s account of Aemon’s life once again).

In general, I am bit puzzled by one aspect of Aemon’s behaviour. He hardly ever seems to share his knowledge (which is certainly considerable). Sam is sent twice on his behalf for specific missions in the library of Castle Black: to gather for maps for the great ranging (ACoK), and to find books to bring back to the Citadel (AFfC). In each occasion, Sam is enthusiastic about the discoveries he made in the library, but he is never enlightened or advised in any way by the maester in residence.

Similarly, Aemon seems to disclose very parsimoniously the details of his own life: his relationship to Bloodraven is still a complete mystery for instance. And Sam has found no record of Bloodraven’s time as Commander of the Watch. (I presume the responsibility to write such an account should fall to the maester in residence.)

@bemused

I can accept everything in that post, including the passage where you say that Aemon does not need to give Sam instructions, since he understands people involved well enough. It’s true that Sam seems to leave Aemon’s company immediately after agreeing to intervene.

In any case, it is telling that Mallister and Pyke assume at once that Sam has been sent by Aemon.

If Aemon was already blind at the time he corresponded with Rhaegar, someone had to read the letters. Clydas?

@Lummel

I agree that Marwyn’s remark could be understood as referring to tensions between the maesters of the Citadel and the Targaryen dynasty. It’s also true that Aemon doesn’t betray any misdeeds in his final moments. But when did GRRM reveal anything to us directly?

The rest of your message contains a few things that are incomprehensible to me.

I don't see Aemon as benevolent either, but nor do I see him as a manipulator pulling strings or intervening in the election.

But Mallister and Pyke do see Aemon as intervening, don’t they?

Assuming that Aemon plays king maker in this or any other election offers the promise of making clear one thing - how the raven got in the kettle - but at the cost of introducing further mysteries and complexities: why do it at all - what is the benefit from Aemon's POV,

If there is not benefit from Aemon's point of view in the trick, what is the benefit for whoever controls the raven?

While we are discussing the motive, I don’t see any motive for Bloodraven to favour Jon’s election, even with the hindsight of ADwD. I don’t doubt that we can imagine some. But where is the evidence?

Assuming that Aemon plays king maker in this or any other election offers the promise of making clear one thing - how the raven got in the kettle - but at the cost of introducing further mysteries and complexities: why do it at all - what is the benefit from Aemon's POV, either being a warg or knowing that the bird was warged and would behave in a certain way (I recall the white ravens too, but that would require the bird, Aemon and Jon to practise together so either we're back to warging or have to assume an off page conspiracy including the POV character

Obviously we disagree about the need for training with Jon or warging (see upthread). Isn't it assuming much less to expect that Mormont's raven is special enough to accomplish a simple animal trick, than to expect that a greenseer has deliberately intervened? Especially since the material circumstances seem designed to preclude the latter possibility (a human intervention appears to have been necessary).

It's not the basis of the image so much as your proposal requires that we turn the character upside down for minimal gain to explain something that in my view isn't a problem in the first place.

Shouldn't our understanding of the character proceed from the analysis of his actions rather than the converse?

[Lummel]

Quite! Our analysis should proceed from Aemon's actions. And what are his actions in Jon XII? Or in the other earlier chapters? On the basis of his actions there is nothing to suggest there that he fixed the election or that he wanted the election fixed in Jon's favour. Sam happens on the idea of Jon as a candidate after he can't get Mallister to Pyke to step down in the other's favour - it's not even in his mind when he asks Aemon "could do I do something".

To my mind it is a simple animal trick for Mormont's Raven to get inside the kettle. As a solution that is consistent with Bloodraven's/the old gods' intervention to date (finding the direwolves, Ghost bringing the wight's hand to Jon, Ghost bringing Jon to the Dragon glass cache, the utterances of Mormont's Raven).

For Aemon to smuggle the bird into the kettle we have to assume this frail and blind man going to the kitchen with the bird stowed away, also spying on Sam to find out how his talks with Mallister and Pyke are going, training the bird or understanding that the bird has a more than avian intelligence and can understand complex instructions. As a solution that is inconsistent with his expressed views - his remarks to Sam that the elections will take as ling as they take, his clean/bloody hands speech to Jon and inconsistent with his physical behaviour - needing support and assistance to get around.

Of course it is a possible reading but it entails a radical reassessment of a character to explain something that I don't think is a problem, so it is not a theory that I am convinced by.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

But Mallister and Pyke do see Aemon as intervening, don’t they?

Yes, they think Aemon sent Sam to them with fairly explicit directions. But we know he didn't. Mallister and Pyke are making an incorrect assumption on this point. The whole series is filled with cases of people acting on incorrect assumptions, and this is one. They don't give Sam credit for being courageous enough to play the Game, but Sam has been changed by his experiences beyond the Wall.

While we are discussing the motive, I don’t see any motive for Bloodraven to favour Jon’s election, even with the hindsight of ADwD. I don’t doubt that we can imagine some. But where is the evidence?

BR tells Bran that he has been watching Bran for Bran's whole life, and watched Ned in the same way. That clearly brings Jon under his eye as well. IMO it is less of a stretch to see BR as being very interested in Jon than it is to see Aemon as an active puller of strings, which we have no evidence for either.

Obviously we disagree about the need for training with Jon or warging (see upthread). Isn't it assuming much less to expect that Mormont's raven is special enough to accomplish a simple animal trick, than to expect that a greenseer has deliberately intervened? Especially since the material circumstances seem designed to preclude the latter possibility (a human intervention appears to have been necessary).

We get a pretty good rundown of raven abilities in the Theon I sample chapter from tWoW. There is no support for black ravens that are more intelligent than white ravens, and Mormont's raven shows extraordinary ability to make pertinent comments even beyond white ravens. I find it much more parsimonious to conclude that Mormont's raven is a bog standard black raven that is being warged (and we've seen ravens being warged) than to claim it is a hitherto unknown "special" kind of raven. It seems special because it is being warged.

As for events in 233, I have absorbed a lesson from reading tPatQ. After reading aSoS, we only only knew about Criston Cole and Jaime's interpretation of history. The situation was far more complex, with other players actually being more important than Cole (if we can trust the account in tPatQ). The Great Council of 233 was probably the same kind of situation. I'm not willing to assume Aemon was a mover and shaker then just because we don't know about anyone else.

I don't see Aemon as excluded (at least involuntarily). He seems to think being a maester is exactly the correct role for him. I think he's right where he wants to be, and may have manipulated some events to get there.

[bemused]

Bran .. Re: Aemon's blindness. I'm just identifying what is ,for me , a question.

We don't know exactly how long Aemon has been blind , or at what point any correspondence with Rhaegar began. If Clydas ( I assume) had to read the letters to Aemon , I would imagine they would have been kept in a more general vein , as regards any prophecy ( because of the blindness )... rather than mention any particulars that might involve living people. So I think (assuming R+L=J) it's most likely that Aemon doesn't know of Jon's secret parentage, and I'm not sure he has any suspicions ( though he may).

Assume for a moment that BR is inhabiting the raven... then there would be benefit to his plans in the raven trick , especially if he and Aemon are not in any kind of conscious communication.

I also think it's noteworthy that though Pyke and Mallister believe they're listening to persuasions from Aemon, neither one of them is flat out just following "his" direction. They can each see worth in Jon as a candidate on his own merit ..I don't think that if , like Stannis , Sam had suggested Hobb , his efforts would have had much success. ;) I think this argues against any wide spread view within the NW of Jon's election being illegitimate.

ETA... I can hardly contain my anticipation for the goodies in the next chapter.. :D

[Bran Vras]

Some additional careful re-reading answers some objections – and changed my mind on a few points.

The electoral count

I realized that Mallister and Pyke never declared their support for Jon and never withdrew. So, if we make the electoral count, it’s not entirely clear that Jon would have won without the raven. He would have had got most of (not all!) the votes that went to Mallister and Pyke + some of the votes of Yarwyck (most of 372 + some of 72). The result would approach or exceed what is needed (which is 392). We can speculate that Jon would have been so close that it would have been hard to deny him the victory. But who knows? So we shouldn’t dismiss the electoral importance of the raven. And Yarwyck's non-commitment to Slynt, which happened at the last minute, made the importance of the raven even more difficult to anticipate.

Here are the numbers for the eighth/ninth/tenth day.

Jon -/-/a lot

Slynt 74/137/ some

Pyke 187/169/ a few

Mallister 213/203/ a few

Yarwyck 60/72/-

Marsh 49/-/-

Hobb 5/5/0

Edd 1/2/-

Total 589/588/?

(Hence Hobb voted for Jon, and some Marsh supporter switched to Edd when Marsh withdrew.)

It is noticeable that Mallister and Pyke did not declare for Jon. Consequently, they share no responsibility for the decisions that Jon will later make.

From "That is not for us to say" to “Why, I don’t know, Samwell. Could you?”

This is a further examination of Aemon’s intentions and actions. I have suggested upthread that there might be some off screen interaction between Sam and Aemon. It is not supported by the text, but I don’t think it is even necessary, and bemused is right that much of what happened is implicit. So I looked more closely at the conversations.

Sam asks himself whether it's lie that he is Aemon's envoy. Aemon does have an effect on Sam, in the lightest possible way by answering Sam’s question by a question and a smile. (Samwell V, ASoS)

“The choosing... Maester, isn’t there something you could do? What the king said of Lord Janos...”

“I recall,” Maester Aemon said, “but Sam, I am a maester, chained and sworn. My duty is to counsel the Lord Commander, whoever he might be. It would not be proper for me to be seen to favor one contender over another.”

“I’m not a maester,” said Sam. “Could I do something?”

Aemon turned his blind white eyes toward Sam’s face, and smiled softy. “Why, I don’t know, Samwell. Could you?”

In fact, it is an encouragement that doesn’t say its name. And Sam takes it as such, which gives him the courage to act. Perhaps it is useful to go back to the night before to appreciate the exchange. Sam and Aemon discussed the electoral situation. (Samwell IV, ASoS)

“Ser Denys is down ten votes since yesterday,” Sam pointed out. “And Cotter Pyke is down almost twenty. That’s not good.”

“Not good for their hopes of becoming Lord Commander, certainly,” said Maester Aemon. “Yet it may be good for the Night’s Watch, in the end. That is not for us to say. Ten days is not unduly long. There was once a choosing that lasted near two years, some seven hundred votes. The brothers will come to a decision in their own time.”

In this exchange, Aemon insists on his impartiality and scolds Sam when he appears to deplore Slynt's gains. Contrast with the other passage.

Definitely Aemon has changed his mind when he encourages Sam to intervene. He went from the categorical "That is not for us to say" to the suggestive “Why, I don’t know, Samwell. Could you?”. Does the change of mind came as a result of the interaction with Melisandre, since none of the candidates assembled by Stannis took the Long Night seriously? Does it have to do with Stannis' command to precipitate the choosing? Aemon seems more preoccupied by Stannis' sword than by the choosing at the end of the meeting.

Furthermore, the last exchange with Sam informs us that Aemon knows that Sam doesn’t want Slynt as Lord Commander, and that Sam knows that Aemon does not believe in the chances of Pyke and Mallister.

Does Aemon know that Sam will try to rally Mallister and Pyke behind Jon? Probably, if he trusts Sam’s intelligence and given that there is no other solution (see what Pyke told Sam). Does he know that Sam will succeed? It depends whether we believe that Aemon knows his men, as bemused puts it. In any case, Sam could have reported his success when he came back to Aemon for the choosing, and there was no need for Aemon to guess that Sam has succeeded.

The raven: what happened

Just for the record, here is an account of what could have happened with the raven (in my view).

On the ninth day of the election, Mormont’s raven is still missing. Sam sees the rookery as almost empty, but ravens are returning at an increasing rate. That creates an expectation for the bird’s return.

It might be that the bird had returned the tenth day. Since the Lord Commander's tower is no more, the rookery, just above Aemon’s chambers is the natural destination of the bird. Thanks to his exceptional hearing, Aemon should be able to recognize by his croaks Mormont’s raven and be the first warned of the bird's return.

We know that Aemon can move by himself in Castle Black, since he went to tend the wounds of Mance Rayder, while Clydas and Sam were occupied elsewhere. It’s true that Aemon needs help to climb stairs though. When necessary Aemon is surprisingly mobile (see when he came in person with Clydas to the site of the battle where Donal Noye died). So the objection of blindness and frailty might not hold.

After Stannis’ meeting, Aemon encouraged Sam to do something. Since Aemon asked Sam to prepare a fire in his chambers, we can presume Aemon remained there during the time Sam talked to Pyke and Mallister. As I just said, he could have recovered the bird at that point in the rookery. Aemon expected to be left alone by Sam until the choosing.

It’s not clear to me how Aemon transported the bird to the kettle. It is without the help or the knowledge of Clydas and Sam. The bird is large and can not be hidden easily. So we could assume that Aemon walked across Castle Black with a raven on his shoulder, which is perhaps not odd for a maester. Mormont’s raven is distinctive, but not distinctive enough for Alisser Thorne to identify at fist sight (Ser Alisser doesn’t recognize the bird).

I struggled with this problem for a while, until I considered a hint that GRRM left us in the following episode (Jon XII, ASoS).

His friends were still out in the practice yard, but Jon was in no fit state to face them. He left the armory by the back, descending a steep flight of stone steps to the wormways, the tunnels that linked the castle’s keeps and towers below the earth. It was short walk to the bathhouse, where he took a cold plunge to wash the sweat off and soaked in a hot stone tub.

So Aemon could reach the voting hall (which is underground) by the wormways. Nobody uses the tunnels at this time of the year. So Aemon could quietly move from his tower to the kettle. Of course the tunnels and voting hall are dark so there would be no problem to sneak in for a blind man. One problem still disturbs me though: it is said that Aemon needs help in the stairs. Perhaps he took some risk. Or perhaps he had some help.

Note:

I have considered an alternative scenario based on the hypothesis that the bird was warged by Bloodraven. I could not find any credible way to imagine it. So I encourage the proponents of this hypothesis to write down the details.

@Ibbison

According to Theon, TWoW, not all black ravens are equal and Mormont’s raven is already remarkable by its size, which is not due to warging. (We discussed this upthread.) Aemon remarked that Mormont’s raven is a special bird. So I can't follow you when you say that Mormont’s bird is a normal bird occasionally warged. Maybe I have mistaken you?

About 233, I never claimed to know exactly what happened. I have just remarked that there are several red flags in Mormont’s story (Aemon ending on the Wall, the disinheritance of Aerion’s son, even the death of Daeron and the presence of Bloodraven deep below the Red Keep) and Aemon was certainly a central actor in the story. Otherwise, yes the story of the Dance of the Dragons proved to be larger than expected for me as well.

Yes, they think Aemon sent Sam to them with fairly explicit directions. But we know he didn't. Mallister and Pyke are making an incorrect assumption on this point. The whole series is filled with cases of people acting on incorrect assumptions, and this is one. They don't give Sam credit for being courageous enough to play the Game, but Sam has been changed by his experiences beyond the Wall.

My point wasn't to discuss the reality of Aemon's manipulation of Sam. I just noticed that it is not outlandish to suggest that Aemon intervenes in elections, since men who have witnessed several elections like Pyke and Mallister take it for granted. But you might counter by saying that their reaction is purely due to the fact that Sam is Aemon’s steward...

In any case, it is at least partly true that Sam is sent by Aemon (see encouragement above).

[butterbumps!]

After some consideration, we’ve decided to change the script a little and forego a fully separate FFC summary. Especially as we’ll be looking at Sam’s chapters in a dedicated spin off thread, we’re going to move forward looking at both FFC and DwD simultaneously to help piece together the relevant intersections to Jon’s (and now, Sam’s) character. We’re using the recommended lamination from Boiled Leather as a rough guide.

Which means that we’ll be looking at the order of DwD Jon I, FFC Sam I, DwD Jon II, Jon III, etc, with FFC Sam I being the final Sam chapter we address in full in the Jon reread.

So, without further ado, let’s get into Jon’s next Act.

Interstitial chapters between aSoS Jon XII + DwD Jon I

FFC: The Prophet (Aeron I)

As Robb predicted when news of Balon’s death reached him (Cat V, aSoS), the Ironborn holding claim to the North have left small garrisons there and returned to the Iron Islands to sort out their succession. With too many candidates (Vic, Euron, Asha, and Theon’s fate unknown), some of the Ironborn turn to Aeron for guidance.

The plot intersection with Jon’s arc is rather straightforward: despite nominal control of the North by the Ironborn at various locations (Moat Cailin, Torrhen’s Square, Deepwood Motte), it’s merely a skeleton force, with the vast power of the Ironborn preoccupied with succession at home. Meaning, the Ironborn’s hold on the North is extremely tenuous.

The thematic intersection is more poignant, I think. As with the LC election, the Ironborn are facing 3 candidates with significant, yet not critical support behind them (Asha, Vic and Euron/ Pyke, Mallister and Slynt). In a similar fashion to the way Sam and Aemon function in terms of fearing Slynt’s victory, Aeron is horrified by the prospect of Euron’s possibly taking the throne, for the devastating effect it will have (not to mention, he is “godless”). Though Balon intended Asha to rule, Aeron rejects this as an option, as “women cannot rule.” He also rejects the prospect of locating Theon and declaring him, as “Theon is weak,” and the Iron Islands don’t operate by the “green land laws” anyway. He wants Vic to become king, but problematically, he comes after Euron in birth order (so, obviously “green land laws” do apply, just not as consistently).

The translation is essentially this: Aeron wants to declare Vic king (and more than that, prevent Euron from becoming one), but has no customary precedent to lean on. He doesn’t believe Balon’s wish to be succeeded by Asha will have enough of a majority to challenge Euron. He can’t appeal to patrilineal succession to make Theon king, because if he insists on the application of this custom, and Theon either cannot get enough support or is no longer alive enough to be king, then he’d have made the case to prop up Euron over Vic. And if it came down to Vic versus Euron, Aeron sees this going only one of two ways: the concept of owing obedience to an elder is so ingrained, that Vic, never one to “sail against tradition” would perform his fraternal duty and lay down the only reasonable chance of resistance against Euron. Or, given the troubled history between them stemming from Vic’s wife, Vic would become a kinslayer. Both options need to be avoided.

He chooses the option of a Kingsmoot as a loophole, confident in this electoral process as a way to raise only the worthiest men as king, and by extension, eliminate the unworthy Euron:

“Yet in the dawn of days the ironborn chose their own kings, raising up the worthiest amongst them. It is time we returned to the Old Way, for only that shall make us great again. It was a kingsmoot that chose Urras Ironfoot for High King, and placed a driftwood crown upon his brows.”

This is where he slips up in what was otherwise pretty astute political analysis. He goes from mirroring the Sam/ Aemon role in terms of Jon’s election, to the gaffe Thorne makes when he invites Othell Yarwyck to speak (assuming he’ll endorse Slynt), only to reject the candidate.

DwD: Varamyr’s Prologue

Skin-changing and Jon Snow

In terms of the skin-changing and death facets, there are certainly some loaded quotes that may be applicable to Jon’s fate (i.e. “Mance should have let me take the direwolf. There would be a second life worthy of a king”), but we’re requesting that we don’t focus on those sorts of speculations at this point in the reread, as they inherently involve jumping to the final DwD chapter.

More apropos for the current point in the project are Varamyr’s thoughts about Jon’s ability. Varamyr, who is a very powerful skin changer, recognizes Jon’s ability as the following:

He could have [taken Ghost from Jon], he did not doubt. The gift was strong in Snow, but the youth was untaught, still fighting his nature when he should have gloried in it.

The fact that this endorsement of Jon’s strong ability comes from an undisputed skin-changing expert is a solid testimonial. However, the fact that this same expert is by all accounts a true monster who abused his abilities should give us pause about accepting to what extent the imperative of “glorying” in the ability is a good thing (and what “glorying” even means in this case).

Wildling customs

The rules of wildling power structure are fairly fluid and undefined, as Varamyr reflects on how his powers rendered him a “lord of sorts,” despite such titles being allegedly irrelevant. Though we’ve primarily seen a clan structure, Varamyr set up an independent keep, and nearby villages paid him homage, which is something of a departure from the norm. I think it’s noteworthy that Varamyr’s power, something that might render him a monster to be persecuted in the South, enabled him wield political power.

Since this question had come up in the past, the wildlings do have an agricultural system. Villages grow orchards and crops (these are some of the offerings the villages bring to him).

The attitude toward skin-changers among the wildlings tends to be more complex than that south of the Wall:

“The world beyond the Wall is not for our kind,” Haggon used to say. “The free folk fear skinchangers, but they honor us as well. South of the Wall, the kneelers hunt us down and butcher us like pigs.”

Haggon had been a friend to the Watch, and serves as another example of wildling-Watch cooperation, tolerance and exchange:

Haggon traded a dozen strings of amber and a sled piled high with pelts for six skins of wine, a block of salt, and a copper kettle. Eastwatch was a better place to trade than Castle Black; that was where the ships came, laden with goods from the fabled lands beyond the sea. The crows knew Haggon as a hunter and a friend to the Night’s Watch, and welcomed the news he brought of life beyond their Wall. Some knew him for a skinchanger too, but no one spoke of that. It was there at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea that the boy he’d been first began to dream of the warm south.

Aftermath of the Battle

It turns out that the wildlings are badly scattered. Many have retreated back to their old villages, the Milkwater or Hardhome, all the while haunted by the Others:

After the battle there had been thousands of them struggling through the forest, hungry, frightened, fleeing the carnage that had descended on them at the Wall. Some had talked of returning to the homes that they’d abandoned, others of mounting a second assault upon the gate, but most were lost, with no notion of where to go or what to do. They had escaped the black-cloaked crows and the knights in their grey steel, but more relentless enemies stalked them now. Every day left more corpses by the trails. Some died of hunger, some of cold, some of sickness. Others were slain by those who had been their brothers-in-arms when they marched south with Mance Rayder, the King-Beyond-the-Wall.

……………

One day, as they fled, a rider came galloping through the woods on a gaunt white horse, shouting that they all should make for the Milkwater, that the Weeper was gathering warriors to cross the Bridge of Skulls and take the Shadow Tower. Many followed him; more did not. Later, a dour warrior in fur and amber went from cookfire to cookfire, urging all the survivors to head north and take refuge in the valley of the Thenns. Why he thought they would be safe there when the Thenns themselves had fled the place Varamyr never learned, but hundreds followed him. Hundreds more went off with the woods witch who’d had a vision of a fleet of ships coming to carry the free folk south. “We must seek the sea,” cried Mother Mole, and her followers turned east.

There’s been anarchy in this state, as wildling has been turning against wildling, lost, without a leader. Mance’s capture is devastating, as it seems that he truly was seen as the single hope for salvation:

If Mance is dead, the free folk are doomed. The Thenns, giants, and the Hornfoot men, the cave-dwellers with their filed teeth, and the men of the western shore with their chariots of bone … all of them were doomed as well. Even the crows. They might not know it yet, but those black-cloaked bastards would perish with the rest. The enemy was coming.

I know that this might be unorthodox, but I’m not so sure how much of a net benefit Stannis’ arrival in battle was. I’m not questioning the net benefit of Stannis’ arrival in general, but rather, I wonder if rethinking whether the battle that marked his arrival was truly such a “lucky save” after all. Looking at it, I cautiously posit that the fact Stannis arrived in battle was a decidedly unlucky break.

Based on Varamyr’s account of the aftermath, the arrival of Stannis’ forces unraveled everything Mance had done in terms of unifying them-- they’ve dispersed in the thousands, in all corners of the North (from Jon I, we learn that only 1,000 are hanging out around the Wall). The fact that Stannis made a preemptive strike against the rounded up wildling camp makes sense given the letters about wildlings attacks he was sent—I am not suggesting that this was an irrational move, or an indication of some lack on Stannis’ part.

But when you look at it, Jon and Mance had come to an understanding of sorts just before Stannis’ arrival. What they needed was someone with enough power to allow the wildlings through. Someone like Stannis. Mance didn’t want to fight, he just wanted to get through. Stannis didn’t particularly want to fight and even agrees that the wildlings should come through. Given this, I’d say the fact that Stannis arrived in a martial rather than diplomatic capacity is the opposite of “lucky break” here. The fact that it was a surprise attack may have “saved” the Watch in the immediate sense, but from this Prologue, we see that it resulted in tens of thousands of now-dispersed future-wights and created the Hardhome condition.

[butterbumps!]

Jon I, DwD

My command, Jon Snow reflected ruefully, as much a ruin as it is a stronghold.

overview

Jon awakes from a wolf dream, and is briefed on the status of Stannis’ wildling prisoners by Edd. Barely adjusted to the command, Jon’s already haunted by his responsibilities: the physically broken state of the Watch, the fact that there are rumors that Stannis wants to burn Mance’s child for magical power, the fact that men keep trying to break into the wildling encampment to take advantage of the women, and messiest of all, having to deal with Stannis’ request to grant all of the abandoned castles to him.

Knowing Stannis has been growing increasingly restless and will not appreciate a refusal to grant the castles, Jon decides to get it over with and address the matter directly. The meeting is even more tense than expected, as Stannis has just received a letter from a 10-year old Lyanna Mormont refusing to accept Stannis as king, and is already livid. They discuss why the Northmen refuse to join Stannis’ cause, why Jon cannot give Stannis gold to pay his pirate navy, why offering Val to Manderly will not produce the result Stannis desires, and Mance’s upcoming execution, finally getting around to the issue of the castles that originally brought Jon here. Jon flatly refuses to allow Stannis to take these castles, but offers a compromise: the castles will be rebuilt and garrisoned, but commanded by Watchmen, and remain property of the Watch. Stannis grudgingly agrees.

Mel makes a point of escorting Jon back to his quarters. She reveals that she thinks Jon may have a point about not executing Mance, and that she will pray for guidance on the matter. Jon inquires about the truthfulness of her visions, and she explains that the visions are true, but interpretation can be fallible. She warns him of “daggers in the dark,” and to keep Ghost close.

observations

• Edd’s wit and wisdom: “Never trust a cook, my lord. They’ll prune you when you least expect it.”
• Jon seems mildly suspicious of Mormont’s Raven. It seems as though he might suspect that there is something more going on there: “Do you take me for your thrall?” When Jon folded back the window with its thick diamond-shaped panes of yellow glass, the chill of the morning hit him in the face. He took a breath to clear away the cobwebs of the night as the raven flapped away. That bird is too clever by half. It had been the Old Bear’s companion for long years, but that had not stopped it from eating Mormont’s face once he died.
• With Jon finally in an official leadership role, his use of power trappings is something he’s not quite comfortable with yet, finding something like a tail almost absurd: “I think I can find the King’s Tower by myself.” Jon hated having guards trailing after him everywhere he went. It made him feel like a mother duck leading a procession of ducklings.
• "Ygritte had been kissed by fire; the red priestess was fire, and her hair was blood and flame." This observation seems rather poignant given the way Mel ends the chapter with Ygritte's "You know nothing" adage.
• Jon gives Horse the following advice during practice, which is essentially the same warning Mel will offer at the end of the chapter: “…you drop your shield too low when pressing an attack. You will want to correct that, or it is like to get you killed.”
• Jon’s identity:

“I offered you a name.” “

I have a name, Your Grace.”

“Snow. Was ever a name more ill-omened?”

analysis

Jon and Ghost

The chapter opens with Jon’s first major on-page wolf dream since Clash, if I’m not mistaken, though, he reveals that these dreams have been getting more frequent and intense since Ghost’s return. Ghost is racing through the forest, sensing his siblings: Shaggydog is eating a one-horned goat in a rainy place, Nymeria is howling at the moon, joined by her hundreds of minions in a warmer place. He’s aware that only 4 of the 6 are still alive, but has lost the sense of Summer, who is on the North side of the Wall (Ghost places himself under the shadow of the Wall on the south side). This, along with Jon’s inability to sense Ghost while on opposite sides of the Wall lends some credence to the idea that the Wall blocks this ability.

The speaker of “Snow” throughout the wolf dream is a bit interesting in its multiplication. We know that Mormont’s Raven is repeating it at Jon, ultimately waking him, but Ghost identifies the Moon as the speaker. Of note, Ghost runs from the moon, trying to get into shadow, which might suggest Ghost doesn’t trust something about this moon-speaker. Jon also side-eyes the raven when he wakes up.

Later in the chapter, Jon reflects on the dream. It seems that he’s been giving them more credence as of late. He’s conscious of the fact that Ghost knows Grey Wind has died (and knew of Lady before him), but the fact that he can sense that Shaggy and Summer are out there makes him wonder if some part of Rickon and Bran could have survived through their wolves.

A Reflection on Things That Vex an LC

The extent of the Watch’s ruin will be an ongoing theme of DwD, as Jon attempts to salvage and rebuild what remains, while progressively discovering just how deep and systemic the damage truly is.

The sort of damage Jon focuses on this chapter is physical in nature, as he takes visual inventory of the literal damage to the remaining buildings, and calls the scene “forlorn.” He’s set men to work on rebuilding the stair as the highest priority, as this is necessary to defend against future attacks, but the labor required to address all the damage is overwhelming. Especially considering Stannis’ demand for abandoned Watch castles looming over him as well.

With rebuilding already a preoccupation, dealing with the cultural clash intensifies the situation. Stannis has corralled the one thousand remaining wildlings into a camp as prisoners. The guards were doing an insufficient job of actually guarding, so Jon’s had to put “guards on the guards” to prevent Kings Men, Queens Men and even some Watchmen from breaking in and taking advantage of the female prisoners. The wildlings who hadn’t either died or been captured in battle have dispersed, and there’s some anxiety about whether the Weeper or Tormund may launch additional attacks. Other than that, a few desperate wildings have been trickling in, seeking refuge.

News of a mother who showed up the previous night with a dead baby reminds Jon of yet another vexation: the rumor that Stannis plans to burn Mance’s baby to wake a dragon. Jon overheard a queen’s man talk about this while being treated for wounds, and at first, Jon dismissed it as nonsense. But Aemon warned him that this is probably not an idle rumor, by confirming that there is “power in king’s blood,” and that “better men than Stannis have done worse than this.” The notion that someone would burn a baby for any reason sickens him:

The king can be harsh and unforgiving, aye, but a babe still on the breast? Only a monster would give a living child to the flames.

Against this, the recent employment of Iron Emmett as training master seems to bring Jon some degree of joy. He chose Emmett for his prowess, but more importantly, his “gift for training men,” which is a pretty vast reform of the previous Thorne School of training:

He loves to fight, and he’ll teach his boys to love it too. Or so he hoped.

Jon takes a few moments to watch the new recruits in action; he offers tips to Horse for improvement, sensing that he has the makings of a good fighter, while identifying Hop-Robin, with the added disadvantage of a clubfoot, as a steward.

I do believe that this shows a genuine attempt to “know your men,” and the appointment of Iron Emmett is a step toward positive reform, but I’d also point out that I think this is something Jon finds personally fulfilling. That is, when Jon needed to blow off steam in aSoS, he’d go to the yard and fight. Training is a personal platform for Jon, and it’s notable he chooses Donal’s old quarters (adjacent to the training yard such that he can hear the training) for his own.

Which brings us to the biggest vexation to an LC of them all: a king at the Wall.

He Only Threatened to Behead me Twice

Stannis has been extremely “restless” since the battle. He’s been exploring the Gift, Moles Town, and a few of the castles along the Wall, walking atop the Wall with Mel at night, and questioning wildling captives. He has demanded that Jon grant him all of the abandoned castles, something Jon cannot possibly do in good conscience. Yet, given what he’s seen of Stannis’ reaction to bad news (“he doesn’t like to be balked”), he’s concerned that there could be significant backlash for refusing him:

If I put my seal to this, I will forever be remembered as the lord commander who gave away the Wall, he thought, but if I should refuse …

To make matters worse, he runs into Sam on his way over to refuse Stannis, who reveals that Stannis is already in a bad mood given a letter he just read. Jon guesses another Northman refused to join Stannis, and reflects that when Karstark did declare for him, he broadcasted the news quite thoroughly.

When Jon arrives Stannis is furious. He immediately demands to know who Lyanna Mormont is, as she has written the following:

Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK.

The fact she’s a ten year old girl pleases Stannis even less. Jon silently muses on why Lyanna would have written to Stannis, recalling that Maege and Dacey rode with Robb, but that even if both were dead, there were other daughters older than Lyanna who’d have surely been put in charge before her. The mystery of Lyanna’s answer gives way to a momentary self-doubt:

He did not understand why Lyanna should be writing Stannis, and could not help but wonder if the girl’s answer might have been different if the letter had been sealed with a direwolf instead of a crowned stag, and signed by Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell. It is too late for such misgivings. You made your choice.

Stannis presses Jon on why no one other than Karstark has declared for him, asking if Arnolf is truly “the only man of honor in the north?” Jon’s uncensored thought is that Karstark truly had no choice, as he’d gone against both Stark and Lannister, but gives a more diplomatic response:

“In times as confused as these, even men of honor must wonder where their duty lies. Your Grace is not the only king in the realm demanding homage.”

………..

“Even in the north men fear the wroth of Tywin Lannister. Boltons make bad enemies as well. It is not happenstance that put a flayed man on their banners. They north rode with Robb, bled with him, died for him. They have supped on grief and death, and now you come to offer them another serving. Do you blame them if they hang back? Forgive me, Your Grace, but some will look at you and see only another doomed pretender.”

When Jon reacts impassively to Mel’s assertion that Stannis is the one true king, Stannis scoffs at his stoicism, and goes on to ask for money. Jon tells him that the Watch has no money for pirate navies, but the key to financing is Manderly, as he’s the wealthiest northern lord. Stannis had already written off “Lord Too Fat to Sit a Horse” when Manderly responded to one of Stannis’ letters noncommittally. So when Mel brings up marriage to Val as a means of making Manderly more receptive to cooperate, and Jon points out that such a plan wouldn’t work, Stannis is at wit’s end:

“Just once you might try to give me an answer that would please me, Lord Snow,” the king grumbled.

“I would hope the truth would please you, Sire.”

Seeing that Stannis is trying to find a way to bind the wildlings to his side and augment his forces, Jon points out that Mance is the only person who could forge such an alliance. Stannis admits that he knows Mance is the key to this, but that despite Mance’s utility, he must execute him in order to prevent further desertion:

“I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I’ll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder’s life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms.”

Jon tries to appeal to the fact that there are no laws beyond the Wall, but Stannis is resolved. He wants to send a message to the North, and believes that other wildling leaders could forge the same North-wildling unification Mance might have.

They finally get around to discussing the issue of the 16 castles; Jon flatly refuses to cede them, and they go on more tangents. Jon points out that he’s interested in rebuilding and re-inhabiting the empty castles as well, but takes specific issue with turning over Watch ownership and giving them to southron lords. Stannis balks, chiding Jon for not knowing that men in one’s service must be rewarded, but Jon appeals to the big picture, pointing out that such a plan doesn’t work in Stannis’ best interest either, as he can never win the Northmen if he gives southron lords northern halls. Stannis brings up Jon’s Winterfell refusal again, and Jon points out that it belongs to Sansa. Stannis refuses to accept “Lady Lannister” in Winterfell, and Jon drops it.

Instead, he brings up the fact that he heard rumors that Stannis planned to reward Rattleshirt and Signorn with a couple of the castles in order to segue into Gilly. Jon has decided to send Gilly away, and brings it up this way to thwart suspicion. Between Gilly’s alleged gossiping and the fact that her own father is also her baby’s father, Stannis is fully convinced that Gilly must leave the Wall at once.

Stannis returns to the issue of the empty forts once more, and they have a heated fight over it. Jon points out that the castles were built for the purpose of guarding the Wall, not lordly seats. Stannis asks Jon who he thinks he is, to which Jon replies, “The watcher on the walls. The sword in the darkness.” Finally, attention to the real enemy—again, what ought to have been front and center, yet becomes an after-thought—gets them closer to the same page. Stannis scoffs at Jon’s words, pointing to his own sword as the “sword in the darkness” that’s needed, but now that they have begun talking about protecting the Wall directly, some progress occurs.

Jon proposes that he provides seasoned Watchmen as officers, whom Stannis’ men will obey along all of the castles, to be repaired by Watch builders. Stannis resists somewhat, concerned that his men won’t follow the men of ill-repute who end up at the Wall, so Jon throws Davos’ ex-smuggler status at him. He threatens to behead Jon, reminding him that he’s only LC by Stannis’ “sufferance,” and that the manner of his choosing could be open for challenge. After threatening to behead Jon a second time, Stannis dismisses him.

Mel insists on escorting Jon back, remarking that Stannis is “growing fond of him,” and that it’s not what Stannis’ says, but his silences that should be feared. After revealing that she thinks Jon may be correct in finding Mance more useful alive than dead, she gets to the real reason she wanted to talk to Jon:

“This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”

“I know their names.”

“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.”

[bemused]

Ok...Here's my last ditch attempt at one explanation for the raven ( there could be others )... If this doesn't recommend itself to you in any way, Bran ... well , we just view things differently - and that may be no bad thing ... you know what they say about variety.

First , I'll just take you back to my example of the mystery starling in my house . On reconstruction , I figured it had been pecking around on my deck , as many birds did every day, and just kept walking and pecking through my open kitchen door ( hence no beating wings ). I also used to look after a family member's african grey parrot ( Merlin , the much beloved ) while she was away . He loved to climb down from the top of his cage and adventure about on the floor ( which he knew he wasn't supposed to do). He'd wait until you were looking the other way , and climb down the bars quietly. He saw much better than any of us, and was very crafty about scuttling behind and underneath furniture , curtains, etc. to avoid discovery. ( And we had wall to wall carpet , so you couldn't hear his claws on the floor.)

Later in our re-read ,there's a scene that hints at similar behavior.

The door to the vault could easily have been open for long periods through the day ( or opened and closed often ) since it was the dining hall. It probably wouldn't have been guarded except as Stannis ordered for the election. Plenty of oportunity for an intelligent bird to sneak in.

I don't think the rookery would have been it's natural destination. It had never been a rookery bird before , coming and going as it pleased. The rookery might have been expressly avoided if it was warged .. what if Clydas just grabbed it and shoved it in a cage ?

If you can't allow that the lid to the kettle might have been left off while the count was going on and the tokens were put away, then nothing I say will change your mind. But I think it's very possible ... If you can entertain the possibility , then it's worth noting that it's Clydas ,with his weak eyesight ,who removed the lid. If he had been the one to replace it ,in the cavernous ( shadowy?) vault, the bird , in the depths of the kettle , might easily have been overlooked.

I think this requires less imagining than the scenario for Aemon. The bird doesn't do anything we haven't seen it do before ( or won't see going forward).... Whereas, Aemon would have to be able to do a lot more than we've seen or would require help.... That just seems much more involved to me.

ETA : Oops! I see Butterbumps! has posted. Sorry ;) , we're moving on...

[Lummel]

...Varamyr, who is a very powerful skin changer, recognizes Jon’s ability as the following:

He could have [taken Ghost from Jon], he did not doubt. The gift was strong in Snow, but the youth was untaught, still fighting his nature when he should have gloried in it.

The fact that this endorsement of Jon’s strong ability comes from an undisputed skin-changing expert is a solid testimonial. However, the fact that this same expert is by all accounts a true monster who abused his abilities should give us pause about accepting to what extent the imperative of “glorying” in the ability is a good thing (and what “glorying” even means in this case).

Wildling customs

The rules of wildling power structure are fairly fluid and undefined, as Varamyr reflects on how his powers rendered him a “lord of sorts,” despite such titles being allegedly irrelevant. Though we’ve primarily seen a clan structure, Varamyr set up an independent keep, and nearby villages paid him homage, which is something of a departure from the norm. I think it’s noteworthy that Varamyr’s power, something that might render him a monster to be persecuted in the South, enabled him wield political power...

...

Haggon had been a friend to the Watch, and serves as another example of wildling-Watch cooperation, tolerance and exchange:

...The crows knew Haggon as a hunter and a friend to the Night’s Watch, and welcomed the news he brought of life beyond their Wall. Some knew him for a skinchanger too, but no one spoke of that...

...

I know that this might be unorthodox, but I’m not so sure how much of a net benefit Stannis’ arrival in battle was. I’m not questioning the net benefit of Stannis’ arrival in general, but rather, I wonder if rethinking whether the battle that marked his arrival was truly such a “lucky save” after all. Looking at it, I cautiously posit that the fact Stannis arrived in battle was a decidedly unlucky break...

...But when you look at it, Jon and Mance had come to an understanding of sorts just before Stannis’ arrival. What they needed was someone with enough power to allow the wildlings through. Someone like Stannis. Mance didn’t want to fight, he just wanted to get through. Stannis didn’t particularly want to fight and even agrees that the wildlings should come through. Given this, I’d say the fact that Stannis arrived in a martial rather than diplomatic capacity is the opposite of “lucky break” here. The fact that it was a surprise attack may have “saved” the Watch in the immediate sense, but from this Prologue, we see that it resulted in tens of thousands of now-dispersed future-wights and created the Hardhome condition.

Thank you Butterbumps!

Just looking over the inbetween bits for a moment - I note again the theme of the watch knowing but not speaking about the warging which picks up on something that we've seen in AGOT with the discover of the Wights, ACOK at Craster's keep and after Jon's Wolf dream.

It strikes me that the reason why wargs might have been persecuted south of the Wall is precisely because of characters like Varamyr, a warg is in a position to set themselves up as a powerful person, a lord, but can operate outside of the traditional moral/social/political restraints. None of his children have 'the gift' so there is no need for a Varamyr to act with restraint for the sake of his successors or to nurture the people subject to him to provide the next generation with a happy and secure power base, instead he can just suck the life blood out of them to his heart's content. So the warg stories that young Janos Slynt was told at bedtime were very scary!

The question of glorying in the gift is something to ponder. That prologue chapter also tells us that the warg becomes like the creature they are warging. But we can see that is double edged. A direwolf is a powerful pack animal - loyal to its pack but savage and destructive towards others.

Such a shocking, shocking heterodox Stannis opinion! This takes us back to the Jon X ASOS discussion. Can Mance control his friends? Would Stannis, his mini-army and his cause be enough to manage a peaceful transition of the Wildlings through the Wall and into the North?

I agree entirely that the break up of the wildling horde has made the task of bringing them through more difficult and has increased the wight-risk I think that even assuming that Stannis and Mance could have brought much of the fighting strength of the wildling further south to fight the Bolton Supremacy that conflict would have been hard to avoid - firstly because there doesn't seem to be enough food, hearths and land to go round at the beginning of winter, secondly because this would have been agreed between Stannis and the Mance - the later agreement is mediated by someone recognised as a Stark and that has to make a difference in setting a seal of acceptability on the project.

[Mithras]

Obervations

A hundred ravens took to the air, cawing as they felt him pass. A great elk trumpeted, unsettling the children clinging to his back. A sleeping direwolf raised his head to snarl at empty air. Before their hearts could beat again he had passed on, searching for his own, for One Eye, Sly, and Stalker, for his pack. His wolves would save him, he told himself.

That was his last thought as a man.

Just before Varamyr died, his consciousness left his body to look for a body to live his second life. His presence was felt by the living animals he passed by. A hundred ravens, a great elk with children, sleeping direwolf look like Bran’s party. But it is also possible that the children are really the CotF and the direwolf is Ghost. We know from Luwin’s account for the CotF that they liked to hunt male and female riding a great elk.

My brothers. My pack. Many a cold night he had slept with his wolves, their shaggy bodies piled up around him to help keep him warm. When I die they will feast upon my flesh and leave only bones to greet the thaw come spring. The thought was queerly comforting. His wolves had often foraged for him as they roamed; it seemed only fitting that he should feed them in the end. He might well begin his second life tearing at the warm dead flesh of his own corpse.

Bran and Rickon had been murdered too, beheaded at the behest of Theon Greyjoy, who had once been their lord father’s ward … but if dreams did not lie, their direwolves had escaped. At Queenscrown, one had come out of the darkness to save Jon’s life. Summer, it had to be. His fur was grey, and Shaggydog is black. He wondered if some part of his dead brothers lived on inside their wolves.

It had been the Old Bear’s companion for long years, but that had not stopped it from eating Mormont’s face once he died.

We learn that Mormont’s Raven ate the Old Bear’s face after he died only here. Sam’s POV does not say anything about this. I think this close succession of the quotes about second lives, eating own corpse and partly living in the animals after death make it highly possible that Old Bear is living his second life in the Raven. There are widely spread rumors about Mormont women skinchanging into bears. Jeor may be an untrained and unconscious skinchanger. I wonder whether Aemon suspected this or how much he knew about the nature of skinchanging. If BR told him that he himself was a skinchanger and the basic dynamics of it, I think Aemon might guess that the bird carries a part of Old Bear, even BR himself if the bird is that old.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I'll clarify my position for Bran Vras, then move on.

@Ibbison

According to Theon, TWoW, not all black ravens are equal and Mormont’s raven is already remarkable by its size, which is not due to warging. (We discussed this upthread.) Aemon remarked that Mormont’s raven is a special bird. So I can't follow you when you say that Mormont’s bird is a normal bird occasionally warged. Maybe I have mistaken you?

IMO, throughout the series Mormont's Raven exhibits the ability to actually understand human language and make relevant comments when it chooses to. This goes beyond what is described in the Theon chapter by such a large degree that I find it inexplicible by any other cause than warging. The size is simply due to age. So yes, I believe the bird is special only because it is being warged, perhaps on a near-continual basis. After all, if intelligent ravens were natural, evolution would favor them and they would predominate. You may disagree. (I presume the rumored abilities of ancient ravens described in the sidebar of the World Book sample to be from the same cause. I may be wrong, of course.)

About 233, I never claimed to know exactly what happened. I have just remarked that there are several red flags in Mormont’s story (Aemon ending on the Wall, the disinheritance of Aerion’s son, even the death of Daeron and the presence of Bloodraven deep below the Red Keep) and Aemon was certainly a central actor in the story. Otherwise, yes the story of the Dance of the Dragons proved to be larger than expected for me as well.

I made my point poorly on this. Sorry. What I meant to say was I don't see any sign that Aemon was a central player in 233. Others came to him, and he turned them down. If we can believe the accounts we've heard, he avoided the Game in KL.

I apologize for not making myself clear on these points.

Time to move on.

[-Winterfellian-]

Wildling customs

The rules of wildling power structure are fairly fluid and undefined, as Varamyr reflects on how his powers rendered him a “lord of sorts,” despite such titles being allegedly irrelevant. Though we’ve primarily seen a clan structure, Varamyr set up an independent keep, and nearby villages paid him homage, which is something of a departure from the norm. I think it’s noteworthy that Varamyr’s power, something that might render him a monster to be persecuted in the South, enabled him wield political power.

I think this gives us some more insight into the nature of power as we see it in the series. In a way I think we can see some parallels in the Varamyr-Mance Dynamic with the one between Stannis-Jon.

Is interesting that though Varamyr is the one with palpable magical abilities, abilities he uses to extend fear and terror, it is the common non magical Mance the one who the wildings choose as King. The power through which Varamyr forced himself upon others is pretty straight forward; Mance’s is one of a more subtle nature.

Is it the wildings’ choice a way of rebelling against a system such as Varamyr’s abuse of his own power or a positive response towards Mance abilities to unite different factions? Or a response towards the man as opposed to trimmings or even magical abilities?

The reason I bring this up is because these are questions that, I feel, strongly resonate in the Jon-Stannis arch we are about to enter. Like Varamyr, Jon is the one with inherent magical abilities. However, unlike the former whose abilities served him as a way to gain political powers, Jon’s were used as ammunition against him; and his raise to power results after an appeal to the sanctity of the individual, through Sam, that resembles Mance’s idea of the man.

Stannis, on the other hand is borrowing prosthetic magic from Mel and using her and her “magical abilities” as means of gaining political power. He later will try to set himself up as the true King in the eyes of the wilding in a show boasting of “ palpable magic” with a success similar to that of Varamyr’s.

But is Jon’s conciliating abilities that will make them his men later on, resembling the way they chose Mance.

But when you look at it, Jon and Mance had come to an understanding of sorts just before Stannis’ arrival. What they needed was someone with enough power to allow the wildlings through. Someone like Stannis. Mance didn’t want to fight, he just wanted to get through. Stannis didn’t particularly want to fight and even agrees that the wildlings should come through. Given this, I’d say the fact that Stannis arrived in a martial rather than diplomatic capacity is the opposite of “lucky break” here. The fact that it was a surprise attack may have “saved” the Watch in the immediate sense, but from this Prologue, we see that it resulted in tens of thousands of now-dispersed future-wights and created the Hardhome condition.

Interesting notion Butterbumps! I have never considered this possibility. However, all in all, I think the defeat of the wildings was a necessary evil sort to speak given the circumstances and the parties involved. Mance did not simply want to get through; he wanted to get through on his own term, that is, carrying the wildings’ ways and life style, which would have resulted in a negative impact for the North.

I see no evidence that Mance intended to concede such a big point. He seemed bitter at having to come South, not as a conqueror or warrior, but with his tail between his legs to hide behind the Wall. Relinquishing the Free Folk’s way of life would have been too much for him I fear.

This is not a point in which, as Kings, Mance nor would Stannis have been willing to concede or reached any kind of mutual understanding as the negotiations would have involved a sore and uncompromising position for both men. Stannis would have demanded that the free folk kneeled to him as rightful King in direct detriment to the wildings free of kneeling life style.

I feel this strengthens the notion that the Kings were in the way of reaching a true mutual cooperation.

Great work at the chapter summary! I will try to add something of more relevance to it after I have read it.

[Ragnorak]

Nicely done, Butterbumps. There is quite a lot in this chapter.

Without even touching on the dream or the Stannis conversation:

Some of the items we see here will resurface later

Any trouble from the stockades last night?”
“Not since you put guards on the guards, m’lord.”

When Jon has spearwives in a tower and the call is entirely his own he chooses to dispense with the first set of guards so that he won't need the second set. His choice will be to let the would-be wayward man suffer the consequences of his actions and let that send a message rather than directly policing access to the women. Both Jon and Stannis believe in the same goal but go about it quite differently. The difference in their methodologies is a running theme with letting the Wildlings through the Wall probably being the most significant. Their debate this chapter over garrisons for the Nights Watch castles also fits with this theme.

“I think I can find the King’s Tower by myself.” Jon hated having guards trailing after him everywhere he went. It made him feel like a mother duck leading a procession of ducklings.

When Selyse shows up Jon will think of her as a mother duck leading her ducklings. This speaks to the floppy ears and trappings of power theme. We immediately see the impact of this choice with Godry the Giantslayer. If Godry truly wanted to test himself against Jon where was he for the past weeks while Jon spent most of his waking hours training in the yard? It seems that it is only Jon's promotion to LC that inspires Godry's interest in a sparring match. Jon chooses to simply ignore the man until he uses the proper form of address which is a rather mature way to handle this and a sign of a confidence he wouldn't have had at the start of the series. Somehow I doubt that this situation would have occurred in the first place if Jon had chosen a tail. His tail's presence would have either dissuaded Godry or addressed Godry as Jon ignored him as would be the custom with Southron lords. This stands out even more once we get Sam's POV because Jon specifically tells Sam that he isn't good enough for his Valyrian steel sword. Despite Godfry hitting a nerve that Jon is overly conscious of he fails to get the slightest rise out of Jon. This is quite a change from his "bastard" sensitivity at the start of the series.

Noye

Drinking from Noye's cup? Being the Smith given the state of the Watch?

beneath a silver drinking cup that had once been Donal Noye’s

.

Old Houses are not forgotten in the Watch. Noye wasn't even "family" to the Baratheons-- at least by blood. It was speaking with Noye that Jon reflected how political conversation don't get pressed at the Watch because of old loyalties.

a musty brocade doublet that bore the stag of Storm’s End

Treasures

His treasures were his tools, and the swords and knives he made. His life was at the forge.

Back in GoT Jon was very dismissive of Sam's view of books as treasures in favor of the more traditional gold and jewels notion. That world view seems to have changed at least to some degree, but Jon has never been the type to miss the value of a sword.

Anything of note in the personal effects?

The one-armed smith had left few personal effects: the cup, six pennies and a copper star, a niello brooch with a broken clasp, a musty brocade doublet that bore the stag of Storm’s End.

Stolen from Encyclopedia Britannica

niello, black metallic alloy of sulfur with silver, copper, or lead that is used to fill designs that have been engraved on the surface of a metal (usually silver) object. Niello is made by fusing together silver, copper, and lead and then mixing the molten alloy with sulfur. The resulting black-coloured sulfides are powdered, and after the engraved metal, usually silver, has been moistened with a flux, some of the powder is spread on it and the metal strongly heated; the niello melts and runs into the engraved channels. The excess niello is then removed by scraping until the filled channels are clearly visible, and finally the surface is polished. The contrast of the black niello against the bright silver surface produces an attractive decorative effect.

They worked from dawn to dusk. Without the stair, there was no way to reach the top of the Wall save by winch. That would not serve if the wildlings should attack again.

This repair work will come up in Sam and it will be noted how the builders were never worked that hard before. Jon notes the importance and the need but not the reactions of the men to the task.

[Lummel]

In May 2012 Butterbumps, Dr.Pepper and myself started Learning to Lead. This was a reread of the Daenerys and Jon chapters in ADWD comparing them as leaders and looking at the parallels in their story lines. Some of you readers and lurkers may find it interesting to have a look at those older posts and ideas.

[Bran Vras]

Here are a few thoughts on the prologue of ADwD before discussing Jon I.

I have wondered whether the Stark children were doomed by their wolves, in the sense that their souls would be contaminated by the association with their beasts (man becomes beast, and beast becomes man). Hence the dark paths that they seem to be following.

Varamyr’s story brings good news of sorts: it’s possible to be a warg and to remain a decent person, as Haggon’s life proved. Not only this skinchanger had strict ethical views on the exercise of his gift, but he admirably took care of educating his fellow wargs. I particularly appreciated the education in boning a fish and butchering a carcass: a man shall not eat like an animal.

One can easily see why wargs are despised and hunted south of the Wall. With great power comes great responsibility. I hardly see how society can deal with the personal responsibility of a skinchanger. The story of Bump’s death reminded me of the psychologists that report how terrifying young children would be if they could materialize their inclination for violence.

A note of compassion for Varamyr. The life of the skinchanger appears terribly lonely, even north of the Wall. Varamyr was feared, but never loved by anyone. He was insecure about parental love (jealousy made him murder his brother), that he lost completely after being given to Haggon. He could never find his parents when he sought them at an adult age. The comparison might not be significant, but I think of Jon as another warg deprived of motherly love, and of a true family home.

Disparate remarks:

– Varamyr gives us a description of the world north of the Wall without ever mentioning the children of the forest or the greenseers. Just the nameless gods. Even wargs seem unaware of Bloodraven, despite the fact that wargs form some sort of community (see the gathering mentioned by Varamyr).

– The woods witches seem to understand the old gods better.

– Varamyr says that none of his children had the gift. But Bloodraven told Bran that blood makes a greenseer. Something has to give.

– The list of animal susceptible to skinchanging (dog, wolf, bear, badger, weasel, elk, deer, cats, birds…) seems to exclude horses. Horses were brought to Westeros when the First Men came, and frightened the children of the forest then. Coldhands rides an elk. So the horses were alien to the ancient world. Nevertheless, Bloodraven compares skinchanging to horse riding. I recall a classical story of a man finding a second life in a horse...

– Mance was apparently willing to accept anyone in his horde, but he wouldn’t tolerate the abominations.

– The death of Orell’s eagle recalls the death of the beast killed by Lightbringer (see the Jade Compedium).

– Varamyr is rejected when he attempts to skinchange into Thistle. It’s not easy to enter the skin of human, even for the great Varamyr. It seems that Varamyr is rejected by the weirwood as well.

– Varamyr has been given golden rings by Mance. Craster has one golden ring. Tormund has golden armbands. This is a commonly accepted symbol of status beyond the Wall, while gold is almost absent in the north (The Stark treasure is made of silver, White Harbor has silversmiths, not goldsmiths).

– Varamyr keeps hanks of hair from the women brought to his bed. This has a counterpart in the prologue of AFfC. Archmaester Walgrave has kept a woman’s hair in his strongbox. Men at the opposite side of the continent and at the opposite extremes of civilization entertain the same fetish!