Why is The Mance trying to rescue fake Arya?

[Lady Fevre Dream]

GNC strikes again.

Mel made him do it, to try and in Jon over. She has a Ruby on him she can use to keep him in check and is using his son as blackmail. The plan never made sense as Mel saw Arya on the road in her vision or the Grey Girl on the dying horse coming to the wall she even had a relative location thanks to Mance. Yet somehow he ended up at Winterfell trying to rescue her.

One question? Do you really think Mance is still glamoured during his stay at Winterfell? I've always kind of thought he wasn't. First off, the Ruby would be obvious on the travelling minstrel, and second, I'm not certain if Theon's descriptions of Abel ever make it clear anyway.

On the subject of Arya and F(Arya) and what Mance may or may not know in relation to the identity of the girl at Winterfell. I think it could go either way, he may realize that she's a fake or he may not. I'm supposing that there is a chance that he didn't pay as much attention to Arya as he did to Ned, the King, even Robb, as the next possible Lord. It could go either way, it depends where the story is going. I'm now interested to notice if Arya looking like Jon ever comes up with Mance, LOL

Lawwwwwwwwwwwwd, we need a new book.

[WeaselPie]

Interesting point. Maybe he indeed knows why. We don't know what knowledge the wildlings had. Ygritte's "you know nothing Jon Snow" maybe really means they know something the present Starks don't know.

When did Bloodraven got stuck in that tree and stop being LC? Did Mance meet him or did Mance and Benjen meet?

Ygritte implied Jon didn't know a great deal about his own history, several times. And arguably Mance knew more than Ygritte.

Benjen may have "met" BR recently. Mance almost certainly knew he existed. Mance and Benjen? Possible, but the question would be why Mance kept Benjen's doings a secret from Jon.

"Abel" could be hiding in the crypts, the same way Bael did before him.

And speaking of Ygritte, we do have the story of Gorne's Way, which Mance would be thrilled to discover.

Gorne and Gendel.. obvs inspired by Beowulf. Dragons, wargs, caves, shadow walkers. Another topic. But certainly the story is of huge significance to the wildlings.

[sj4iy]

Mance didn't go to Winterfell for Arya, that much is plain. Otherwise he wouldn't be looking for the crypts.

[butterbumps!]

I think it might be something like this:

A. Mel's goal was to bring Jon to heel, so she's the one who genuinely wanted Mance to rescue the girl at Long Lake.

B. Mance has his own endgame in mind, and being given leave to roam the North aligns with that. He might have his own reasons to go to Winterfell specifically.

C. The Northmen have an aligned goal of extracting Arya from Winterfell.

So:

1. Mel sends Mance south to intercept Arya, and has his own ploy in mind.

2. Mance needs something from the Northmen, if not from Winterfell itself (maybe he thinks there's something important there from a song). His "ploy" involves choosing Rowan, the spearwife, who may be Crowfood's daughter/ granddaughter that was allegedly "carried off" by wildlings 30 years ago as a gesture of good faith to negotiate with Northmen (there is definitely some connection between Rowan, the Hooded Man and Crowfood, who may be the HM as well).

3. On his way South, Mance seeks out Mors (and bear in mind that "Rattleshirt" was privy to the councils Stannis was holding, so he's on top of the political standings) and, with Rowan, forges negotiations, learns that Arya is actually in Winterfell (rather than Barrowton as was initially the plan), and tells Mors he intends to rescue Arya, thereby presenting himself as an ally with aligned goals.

4. The Umbers have been working with Manderly since aCoK to build ships, and seem to be coordinating something together at Winterfell. Through Mors, Mance is aligned with Manderly, and they work together on an Arya rescue mission. Manderly miraculously shows up with a band without a singer, and equally miraculously Mance is there to fill that void. How convenient. Additionally, Mors seems to be expecting Theon and Jeyne outside the Wall; Mors, the HM and Rowan/ Mance seem to be communicating (horns and drums).

I hasten to add that I'm skeptical of a "great" Northern Conspriacy, or the idea that Mance and Northmen are real allies who all desire overthrowing the Boltons, or that they all share endgames. I think this is a case of aligned interests (Mance wants to get in Winterfell, Umber and Manderly want Arya out, Mance has a good argument to give these 2 to get them to trust him-- "Jon holds my son hostage at the Wall, and I'm tasked to rescue the girl, so you can totally trust me on this." And, btw, Mance might actually know that's not his son there. He's been roaming around the Watch freely. I'm going to hazard the guess he can tell that's not actually his son, and is letting Mel and Jon believe that he believes it's really his son. So I don't think he actually has an incentive to return an Arya he knows is fake.)

5. Mance would know that Arya is a fake; the Northmen within the castle might also know or suspect, but it's in their interest to get her out anyway, because it undermines the Bolton's position. Roose is trying to lure all of his enemies to congregate in one location in order to eliminate them all, both within the castle and without. Arya is much a token of legitimacy as she is a lure for Roose; without Arya, the Northmen wouldn't be inclined to march on him in the middle of a snowstorm. It's Arya's being in the castle that ensures all these external enemies march into a siege where Roose has the upper hand. So, even as a fake, getting her out is important to the Northmen.

The summary: Mel's objective to have Mance rescue Arya is morphed into a Winterfell mission once Mance interacts with Northmen who inform him that she's in Winterfell, and they cook up whatever new directive for him. Presumably, these roughly aligned goals (Mel's Arya rescue and the Northmen's Arya extraction) are aligned enough to Mance's own that he can use them as stepping stones to whatever eventual end he has in mind.

[WeaselPie]

The summary: Mel's objective to have Mance rescue Arya is morphed into a Winterfell mission once Mance interacts with Northmen who inform him that she's in Winterfell, and they cook up whatever new directive for him. Presumably, these roughly aligned goals (Mel's Arya rescue and the Northmen's Arya extraction) are aligned enough to Mance's own that he can use them as stepping stones to whatever eventual end he has in mind.

I agree, Mance has his own directive, and appearing to be following orders will score him some brownie points as a bonus.

To those who brought this up... Mance brought spearwives with him because no one would suspect a singer and a bunch of scullery maids as a threat. And he was correct, he was able to infiltrate the castle. If he showed up with male warriors, it would be an instant confrontation.

[Game Of Thrones]

Because his "son" is a captive, and he's bored as Rattleshirt.

[butterbumps!]

Because his "son" is a captive, and he's bored as Rattleshirt.

But "Rattleshirt" has been wandering around the Watch-- and the tower this baby is kept in-- with unfettered freedom. I'm inclined to believe a father (especially a guy like Mance) could recognize his own son. I kind of think Mance knows Jon doesn't have his son there, and that his son is somewhere toward Oldtown with Sam. So I think Mance is essentially a rogue agent at this point-- like, he doesn't have incentive because of any hostage issue.

[Winter'sFallen]

& really it seems like the spearwives are the ones trying to get fArya out. Mance is probably playing his own game to get information from everyone, to see what will be most advantageous to him & the wildlings.

[Lord Damian]

We know Mance was in Winterfell when Robert Baratheon visited meaning that he saw the real Arya. This means that he almost certainly knows that Ramsay's bride is a fake.

This beggars the question then, why is Mance risking the lives of himself and the spearwives to rescue a girl that he knows to be a fraud?

More importantly, why did Mel keep this man alive and decieve evryone, possibly including Stannis too? Did she see something of Mance in one of her fires that made her feel he is important in the long run? Mance also knows his son was taken away with Gilly, he would know that baby is not his son? Mance also does owe somthing to Jon for allowing them to cross the wall, saving their lives. Mance is not a monster.

[Sword of the Morgan]

I tend to think he has some ulterior motive, but I really don't know what it is. However, I don't know if it's safe to assume that he remember what Arya looks like.There were men at Ramsay's wedding that had been to Winterfell before and simply paid no attention to Eddard Stark's second daughter, which is not much of a surprise.

[Brother Seamus]

I think he wanted to exchange Arya for his son, but that plan fell apart when the spearwives were killed and Theon and Jeyne were caught by Stannis' side

that's a coherent motive, at least. he would have had to have believed that arya was at winterfell. he could have learned that the girl on the horse was not arya somehow, as of yet unrevealed, and thus believed that she was still at winterfell. once he got to winterfell he either didn't know it was Jeyne, not ayra, or he did know but didn't care because he thought Jon et al would believe it was arya whether it was or not

[sertravisredbeard]

But "Rattleshirt" has been wandering around the Watch-- and the tower this baby is kept in-- with unfettered freedom. I'm inclined to believe a father (especially a guy like Mance) could recognize his own son. I kind of think Mance knows Jon doesn't have his son there, and that his son is somewhere toward Oldtown with Sam.

If Rattle-Mance did end up getting a glimpse at his son, it wouldn't have been until at least after the real Rattleshirt was given to the fire. So, he wouldn't have seen his son for a long time since it was born amidst the battle he was captured during. He would not have been able to say for certain that it wasn't his kid. If the kid didn't look like him, it could be chalked up to having an extra bit of Dalla's blood. I doubt he knows about Jon's baby-switch.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

If Rattle-Mance did end up getting a glimpse at his son, it wouldn't have been until at least after the real Rattleshirt was given to the fire. So, he wouldn't have seen his son for a long time since it was born amidst the battle he was captured during. He would not have been able to say for certain that it wasn't his kid. If the kid didn't look like him, it could be chalked up to having an extra bit of Dalla's blood. I doubt he knows about Jon's baby-switch.

Actually, the passage of time would help him recognize his own child. When babies are first born their faces are all smashed in from the birth canal. It takes a few (~3) months before their features return to normal.

And if the baby doesn't resemble him, he should be able to tell the difference between a baby that resembles Dalla vs one that resemble Craster. (Unless of course Craster and Mance are related, which Sam and Val hint at.)

[joluoto2]

Because he is competing with the Mannis in MANLINESS.

[butterbumps!]

If Rattle-Mance did end up getting a glimpse at his son, it wouldn't have been until at least after the real Rattleshirt was given to the fire. So, he wouldn't have seen his son for a long time since it was born amidst the battle he was captured during. He would not have been able to say for certain that it wasn't his kid. If the kid didn't look like him, it could be chalked up to having an extra bit of Dalla's blood. I doubt he knows about Jon's baby-switch.

Well, not necessarily. The end of Jon I is when Mel approaches Jon about agreeing with him that Mance should be spared, and says she'll think on it. Jon II is when the swap happens and Mance's baby goes to Oldtown. Jon III is when "Mance" is burned. Between Jon VI and VII is Mel I, when Mance is then dispatched to retrieve Arya. "Rattleshirt Mance" happens for a certainty before Jon III (the burning is at the beginning of the chapter), and as early as right after Jon I, since Mel's fixing to spare him. He might have even been roaming free prior to Gilly's departure. Even if he's released after a direct comparison could be made, I really do think a parent would know his own child.

[Janicia]

Wouldn't any enemy of the Boltons who realizes that "Arya" is fake simply kill Jeyne rather than try to rescue her? Killing her would be much easier, and her death would deprive the Boltons of their mascot. And with all of her public screaming, most people would blame Ramsay for her death. And whomever killed her could soothe their conscience with the thought that they'd ended her pain. There just isn't a good reason to go through with the suicide mission to rescue "Arya" unless you want to use her for something. Jeyne isn't useful leverage with Jon. And between her marital status and terrible mental state, Jeyne has little political use as fArya to anybody besides the Boltons.

We don’t know whether Mance would recognize Arya or not. There is a plausible case to be made either way. But the fact that Mance went through with actually rescuing Jeyne strongly implies that he doesn't know she's fake.

And it is silly to suggest that Mance is mostly doing something else and rescuing Jeyne is a side project. If his primary goal was to explore Winterfell’s crypts or to write letters to Jon, there is no benefit to him in going through with the suicide mission of rescuing Jeyne. You don’t put in 90% of your resources and blow your cover on a side project. You don't take the immense risk of revealing yourself to Theon to recruit him for a side project.

[butterbumps!]

Wouldn't any enemy of the Boltons who realizes that "Arya" is fake simply kill Jeyne rather than try to rescue her? Killing her would be much easier, and her death would deprive the Boltons of their mascot. And with all of her public screaming, most people would blame Ramsay for her death. And whomever killed her could soothe their conscience with the thought that they'd ended her pain. There just isn't a good reason to go through with the suicide mission to rescue "Arya" unless you want to use her for something. Jeyne isn't useful leverage with Jon. And between her marital status and terrible mental state, Jeyne has little political use as fArya to anybody besides the Boltons.

No, you get her out first and verify to others that she's a fake, otherwise these Northmen turn on you (if they find out), or risk that they'll continue this pointless attack on Winterfell out of vengeance and be destroyed in the effort. And her importance isn't about giving the Boltons "legitimacy." Her presence there is a trap. She's whats luring all these other people to launch an otherwise unnecessary siege in the worst possible conditions.

We don’t know whether Mance would recognize Arya or not. There is a plausible case to be made either way. But the fact that Mance went through with actually rescuing Jeyne strongly implies that he doesn't know she's fake.

And it is silly to suggest that Mance is mostly doing something else and rescuing Jeyne is a side project. If his primary goal was to explore Winterfell’s crypts or to write letters to Jon, there is no benefit to him in going through with the suicide mission of rescuing Jeyne. You don’t put in 90% of your resources and blow your cover on a side project. You don't take the immense risk of revealing yourself to Theon to recruit him for a side project.

Mance does have a need to go through with the mission even if he has his own game in mind. Notably, he doesn't have a way to get inside the castle (if that's what he's after) with Boltons on one side and a Northern army on the other. He has to make common cause with one of the sides, otherwise, his way is blocked. Making common cause with the guys outside-- the Arya extraction-- provides his "in."

[Northernmonkey]

I think I know the answer to the OP's question. If I remember rightly (F)Arya never leaves her room at Winterfell, so Mance doesn't even get the chance to recognise her until the escape is already underway, and by that point you might as well finish the plan.

Although I can't remember the exact logistics of the escape plan so I might have got something a bit wrong.

[Janicia]

No, you get her out first and verify to others that she's a fake, otherwise these Northmen turn on you (if they find out), or risk that they'll continue this pointless attack on Winterfell out of vengeance and be destroyed in the effort. And her importance isn't about giving the Boltons "legitimacy." Her presence there is a trap. She's whats luring all these other people to launch an otherwise unnecessary siege in the worst possible conditions.

Or you frame Ramsay for killing her, which anybody would believe. And later on you tell Jon and anybody else that cares "I tried, but I just didn't get there in time. She was already dead. I'm so sorry."

If Mance has allied with the Northerners and wants to do his best to help them against the Boltons (which definitely isn't clear), killing fArya still makes a lot of sense. It loosen's Roose's hold over the Northerners and frees them from the trap of Winterfell. Freeing Jeyne means risking that she gets recaptured by Roose, but if she's dead that's the end of it. And if Mance has Northern allies, he must have some way of communicating important information to them like "That's not really Arya". If the Northern lords need proof that it isn't Arya, somebody could insist on interviewing Jeyne while she's still a captive to prove it to themselves.

I have serious problems with any theory positing that Mance recognizes Arya but the Northern lords don't. The Northern lords have collectively spent far more time with Starks than Mance and care more about Starks than Mance. Arya was a kid when she left the north, but the various Northern lords would have been eyeing all of the Stark kids from a young age for marriages. Mance visited Winterfell to learn more about the politics of the realm, while we know from Lady Dustin that Northerners would specifically arrange visits to Winterfell so their children could court the Stark kids.

The collective callousness of the Northern Lords regarding Jeyne's plight implies to me that they are aware that she's not Arya, and thus are biding their time for their own reasons. In that case, they probably don't even want her to be rescued and they certainly don't care whether Jeyne survives.

Mance does have a need to go through with the mission even if he has his own game in mind. Notably, he doesn't have a way to get inside the castle (if that's what he's after) with Boltons on one side and a Northern army on the other. He has to make common cause with one of the sides, otherwise, his way is blocked. Making common cause with the guys outside-- the Arya extraction-- provides his "in."

If Mance is a free agent, he could agree to try to extract Arya in order to get access to Winterfell and then simply fail to follow through on the agreement. Even if he was morally opposed to breaking a promise, the fact that Arya isn't even in Winterfell frees him.

[butterbumps!]

Or you frame Ramsay for killing her, which anybody would believe. And later on you tell Jon and anybody else that cares "I tried, but I just didn't get there in time. She was already dead. I'm so sorry."

If Mance has allied with the Northerners and wants to do his best to help them against the Boltons (which definitely isn't clear), killing fArya still makes a lot of sense. It loosen's Roose's hold over the Northerners and frees them from the trap of Winterfell. Freeing Jeyne means risking that she gets recaptured by Roose, but if she's dead that's the end of it. And if Mance has Northern allies, he must have some way of communicating important information to them like "That's not really Arya". If the Northern lords need proof that it isn't Arya, somebody could insist on interviewing Jeyne while she's still a captive to prove it to themselves.

I have serious problems with any theory positing that Mance recognizes Arya but the Northern lords don't. The Northern lords have collectively spent far more time with Starks than Mance and care more about Starks than Mance. Arya was a kid when she left the north, but the various Northern lords would have been eyeing all of the Stark kids from a young age for marriages. Mance visited Winterfell to learn more about the politics of the realm, while we know from Lady Dustin that Northerners would specifically arrange visits to Winterfell so their children could court the Stark kids.

The collective callousness of the Northern Lords regarding Jeyne's plight implies to me that they are aware that she's not Arya, and thus are biding their time for their own reasons. In that case, they probably don't even want her to be rescued and they certainly don't care whether Jeyne survives.

If Mance is a free agent, he could agree to try to extract Arya in order to get access to Winterfell and then simply fail to follow through on the agreement. Even if he was morally opposed to breaking a promise, the fact that Arya isn't even in Winterfell frees him.

Back up for a second. I don't think that all the lords inside Winterfell don't recognize that this isn't Arya. I am not positing that Mance can recognize a fake while no one else can. That said, of everyone gathered there, Mance would have seen Arya most recently in that he was at the feast when Robert came, and we don't have any indication that these others saw her after that point. Further, Mance would have seen that she looks just like Jon Snow, and Mance has just spent a good deal of time with Jon Snow.

But I don't happen to think that none of the people inside don't know this is a fake. I think Mance knows, but I think others know as well. That Manderly calls for Danny Flint-- a song about a girl pretending to be something else and getting raped-- at the wedding, might serve as a clue that no one inside (at least Manderly) isn't buying this.

I also don't think that Mance is necessarily actually allied with the Northmen and genuinely wants what's best for them. I don't know why you're arguing against that framework-- I most certainly did not posit it.

Killing Fake Arya does not make as much sense as extracting her from the POV of the Northmen who might recognize that she's fake. Killing her and blaming Rams isn't going to accomplish anything.

How exactly do you see that playing out in the Northmen's favor from the inside? Have someone kill her, then get Whoresbane or someone to climb the walls, tell everyone in the Northern camps that Rams killed her, and hope they give up the siege until spring when the advantage would be better?

Or-- do you make removing fake Arya from Winterfell alive a priority, send the fake into the camp so that others know she's not Arya, and-- most importantly-- give the Bolton forces a reason to leave the castle and be defeated? Look at how Bolton is playing this. He's keeping his own Dreadfort men in reserve. He's setting it up so that all these Northmen and Stannis destroy each other, while he retains the Dreadfort men to be the last man standing. If the fake Arya was on the loose, however, this is the circumstance that gets the Dreadfort men outside the castle to retrieve her. It's the chance to turn this from a siege with the real enemies inside to a battle the Northmen have a shot at winning-- this might give them Rams.