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NFL Week 17: Playoff Seeding Madness

Manhole Eunuchsbane

By Manhole Eunuchsbane,
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Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

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Looks like we have a relevant Week 17 for a change. NFC West, North, and Dumpster Fire all still up for grabs. The AFC North comes down to Bengals @ Stillers. Seeding is still wide open with Hou, SD and Bal all still alive on the AFC side, and only the two NFC Dumpster Fire Division teams vying for the last spot in the NFC.


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Mexal Council Member

Mexal

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Looks like we have a relevant Week 17 for a change. NFC West, North, and Dumpster Fire all still up for grabs. The AFC North comes down to Bengals @ Stillers. Seeding is still wide open with Hou, SD and Bal all still alive on the AFC side, and only the two NFC Dumpster Fire Division teams vying for the last spot in the NFC.

I am hoping that Houston wins, Baltimore loses. SD loses and Houston takes that 6th seed. Then it's almost guaranteed Watt will win MVP and the Ravens will look like suckers. That's my ideal scenario right now.

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Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

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I am hoping that Houston wins, Baltimore loses. SD loses and Houston takes that 6th seed. Then it's almost guaranteed Watt will win MVP and the Ravens will look like suckers. That's my ideal scenario right now.

Totally with you on that. I'm thinking the Browns are likely to screw that equation up though. :frown5:

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Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

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No trust in Connor Shaw? Blasphemy.

No, it's more the Elite quality of James Flacco that has me thinking Balty will be victorious here. :cool4:

It's more complicated than just the QB's, methinks. The Factory of Sadness has been producing a high quality of suck across the board for the past few weeks. Offense/Defense/Special Teams have all been suspect.

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Rockroi Council Member

Rockroi

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From now on, our troubles will be far behind….



Before I begin, the season of giving began with Peyton Manning giving the Pats the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs, the chance to rest the starters for much of the Bills’ game and not worry about a suddenly feisty Bills team while the Broncos played a doormat Oakland team. Nice!



But, not everything was grand in Whooville.



So, I want to start by comparing two games: Pats v. Jets and Seahawks v. Cardinals.



Here ‘s what the two games had in common:



Division leader with inside track on #1 seed overall going on the road to take on a division rival. Division rival is known for having a really tough defense but a questionable QB.



One team- the Seahawks – didn’t just rise to the occasion, they left no doubt that they were the best team in football. The Patriots, meanwhile, did everything they could to make Gino Smith seem like a world beater. Seattle dominated both sides of the ball – they ran up almost 600 yards of total offense and held Zona to about 200 yards of O. Zona was a pathetic 3-15 on third down. Maybe the worst part- Arizona only got called on ONE penalty while Seattle was called on 11 penalties for about 100 yards. Did not matter at all. Before yesterday the Cards were a top-5 defense. They are barely a playoff team anymore.



Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the Patriots managed just 20 more total yards than the Cards (237 v. 217) and gave up over 300 to the Jets. Brady was sacked 4 times, looked terrible at times (and really good) against a defense ranked 21st in defensive DVOA. The Jets came perilously close to knocking the Pats out of home field (thankfully, though, the Broncos were helping the whole time).



Now, like with most things in the NFL, the good things are rarely that good and the bad things are not ever that bad (unless they are Tim Tebow). Seattle is sort of getting “flavor of the month” treatment; they had one exceptional game against a team whose QB had never started before and whose previous career had completed thrown 4 whole passes for 30 yards. Great job. Now, the Pats… looked horrible, and their O-line looked terrible. But they won. They won against a team that always, always always gives them fits. Their D played good enough to always keep them in the game and Brady was able to finish the deal.



But with all that… Seattle looked like the team they were a year ago; they have won 8 of their last 9, including 5 in a row. They are #1 in rushing and #1 against the pass. They are 2nd in both weighted and total DVOA; 4th in defense (Pats are 1st, 3rd and 9th respectively).



In one week, the best team in the AFC and best team in the NFC faced a potential stumbling block and only Seattle handled it.



Which brings me to the Broncos.



Again, thank you, Peyton for the early X-Mas present; you are too kind.



The Broncos looked terrible for 3 of the 4 quarters of the game, only making it a close game in the third quarter. The Bengals, meanwhile, also looked poopy for much of the game, but they had a somewhat plausible excuse: namely that A.J. Green was hurt for most of the game. There has been a lot of talk about how Manning looked, specifically, and having watched most of the game and a series of games with the Broncos until now, it could be just that he’s hurt and he needs time to recover (and hence an off week).



There have been some stats on Manning these last few days, but this one here is startling: Manning’s record in the last 8 games is 5-3; in those 8 games Manning has thrown for 17 Tds v. 12 INts. Manning has thrown 6 picks v. 3 TDs in the last three games.



Manning’s QB rating in those last 8 games is a roller-coaster of variance: Two weeks before playing the Pats (the 1st of the last 8 games), Manning had a monster game- 4TDs, 318 yards and a QB rating of 157.2. barely a hair under a perfect rating day. By sheer coincidence, the previous week, the NFL began testing for HGH. The next week, Manning had another monster v. SD, 3Tds v. 0INTs and a rat of 124.2.



And then he played the


Pats. Rat 80.9


Raiders 111.9


Rams: 75.3


Dolphins: 135.4


Chiefs: 85.3


Bills: 56.9 (lowest of the season)


Chargers: 125.6


Bengals: 61.8 (2nd lowest of the season).



That looks as nauseating as a roller coaster.



Lets look at Brady’s numbers for his last 8 weeks


20 TDs v. 7 INTs, and QB ratings of 148, 97, 85, 94, 102, 90, 93, 76. His highs are not as high as Manning but his lows are not nearly as low and generally speaking he hangs around that mid-90s number which is his usually lifetime rating. Lets compare more QBs over the last 8 weeks to Manning looking at just TDs and INTs:



Manning: 17-12


Brady: 20-7


Romo: 21-3 (I had to check this one like 3 times)


Rothlesberger: 20-5


Luck: 19-9


Rodgers: 18-4


Breese: 18-7


M. Ryan: 15-5


Matt Stafford: 10-6


P. Rivers : 14-13


Eli Manning: 15-8



Statistically speaking, Eli, over the last 8 weeks, is having better games than Peyton. Really, its when you get down to Stafford and Rivers that you really find somebody struggling as much as Peyton has in this department.



Now, is INT v. TD ration THAT good of a metric? Not overall, but right now, in the turnover battle, Mannning is losing and he’s losing badly. I would say that he has to figure this out “before its too late…” but … has that time passed? I guess we will know more in a few weeks.



-The Cowboys probably had the quietest “statement” game all season. Because Seattle dominated Arizona, the Cowboys’ thumping of the Colts was a NFC afterthought. But the Colts were completely hapless in that game; Luck was benched ½ way through; there is no running game and the D… well the D gave up 42 points. And some of those were from Brandon Weeden. The Colts were as bad as they have been all season and the Cowboys were as good as they were all season. Simple as that.



-Probably the silent story of the 2014 season has been the demise of the Saints; their season ended with a whimper Sunday by giving up 30 points to Atlanta, and Setting up Mike Smith to be one of the only coaches in NFL history to get fired the same season he leads his team to the playoffs. Breese has looked… frustrated. He has another season close to 5,000 yards, completed close to 70% of his passes and has a TD:INT ratio well over 2:1; he’s also 4th in FO’s DYAR and 8th in DVOA for QBs and 8 in QBR.. But pretty much everything else on the Saints is poo. They have an average running game, but it has been very inconsistent; but their D? Fucking train wreck. They are ranked 29th against the run AND the pass. The Saints are also 31st in Defensive DVOA in front of only … Atlanta, a team they just lost to.



Which leads me to this: we know Rex Ryan will be fired (More on him after Sunday’s game), and Harbaugh is practically packing his stuff in brown boxes. But Sean Peyton should be fired. How can you let a team be that bad, that obviously? And in a division that was theirs for the taking?



We should discuss this.



-At a certain point, Chip, its kinda your fault.



-We are 16 weeks in: the Chiefs have not thrown a TD to a WR all season. Wow.



I will have a post Black Monday post dedicated to Rex Ryan as well as a “Lets look back at my 2014 predictions (here’s a hint: in their respective divisions I had the Bears finishing first and the Cowboys finishing last).



But one last thing before I go: When Manning was busy exposing himself in Cinci, there was a brief and sad and pathetic and completely avoidable discussion about playing football (*GASP*) outdoors. In the “wild” of controlled stadiums. And there were several posters who said that its frusterating to watch games where the weather, for lack of a better term, takes over. Domes, one person said, was the best place to play a football game.



And I stayed quiet mostly because the discussion caused me to suffer a brain aneurism I lost feeling in my left hand and in 3 fingers on my right. I fought the urge to write something snarky (here’s a hint: it started with a “T-“ and ended with a “-his why New England Fans hate all you other fans and you pathetic, weak teams and their sad, pampered athletes.”) But I refrained. I didn't bring up how … you know… Rodgers and Brady and Rothglesberger have played in harsh conditions and somehow, someway, have 6 Superbowls between them (to go with 9 appearances) . I could have made a scene, could have derailed the thread, but I stayed the course.



YOU’RE WELCOME!



Next week, Manning throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs against the Raiders and everyone claims that he’s “back.”


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Jace, Extat Council Member

Jace, Extat

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I fear for Odell Beckham Jr. Recent history shows Giants WR's emerging onto the scene as big play guys for 2 seasons before fading into obscurity.



It started with Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz wasn't making plays last year or this before his knee injury. What if they ruin Beckham? He's a serious candidate for my favorite non-Colts player award.


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Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

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On top of that, Alex Smith has a lacerated spleen or something and can't play this Sunday.

I heard he got ahold of some bad street tacos sold to him by a mysterious moustachioed gentleman wearing a large sombrero...

http://s1336.photobucket.com/user/Lumpy67/media/FelipeRios_zpscd4296ec.jpg.html

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Jace, Extat Council Member

Jace, Extat

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It sounds like Stanton got athroscopic surgery and is out indefinitely.

They've got to call someone, right? Anyone who's got impressive physical attributes who could inject some kind of life into the offense... Vince Young, Josh Freeman, whatshisname from Ohio State, and I was joking about Tebow before, but...

And it looks like the Chargers back into the playoffs two years in a row due to the Chiefs not playing their starters. Let's see if it takes them until the last second to lock it up again.

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