Mafia 75 -- Revolution in Vanillaville

[House Sunglass]

A lot of my objections to the 'one off, one on' rule being applied to Tarth or Estermont is that the other person besides Vance (obviously) not on the Vance lynch was night killed.

Huh? I'm confused. Westerling was killed, and he was on the Vance mob.

Anyway, my personal take is that we don't do voting analysis much anymore, and I don't think the FM are going to make it a huge factor in their decision. That could change in future games if we get back into voting analysis....but right now, I'm just not sure that it would be in the forefront of their thought process.

Also, I don't buy the theory that one FM has to be on the mob and one has to be off the mob. The only thing that I would suggest is that the odds are that at least one FM was on the mob. For a few reasons: 1) simple odds, 2) FM probably wanted a lynch on day 1, and 3) I was off the mob and I know that I'm innocent - that only leaves Bolton + Tarth as suspects off the mob. They could certainly be a team that is engaged in early day 2 distancing, but I don't feel that it is particularly likely because Tarth is currently low on my list of suspects. Maybe that will change after I re-read him, but for now I'm rolling with it.

[House Ashford]

I don't disagree with the theory entirely, I just don't think our lynches should be based on it alone. For one thing, I'm innocent and I don't want this argument to be one of the primary reasons I'm lynched (which is looking likely).

Hmmm... actually I'm still brewing this in my mind myself...

A lot of my objections to the 'one off, one on' rule being applied to Tarth or Estermont is that the other person besides Vance (obviously) not on the Vance lynch was night killed.

Would the FM eliminate names from an already small pool if they knew/suspected people would look towards that pool for suspects?

And if so --or if killing Westerling was an oversight on their part-- are they more or less likely to draw attention to the other players in the small suspect pool?

In other words, I'm still not sure if this makes me feel more secure that Tarth isn't a FM or less.

Sorry, I know that last bit is all WIFOM. I'm just going through my thought process. Input appreciated.

edit: actually my logic is flawed here as Westerling would have had to be voting for Ashford. My bad... I was sort of writing stream of consciousness :P

The point I think I can salvage however is this: Would a FM be more or less likely to draw attention to a small suspect pool if they themselves are part of that small pool?

The one on/one off might have been a thing a long time ago, but as the players have gotten smarter, so have the FM and a lot of once applied no longer does. Plus, things are very different in small games like this one.

And to answer your question: Maybe, but unlikely.

edit: argh, you edited, but I think my answer is still ok.

[House Sunglass]

Estermont, you're also on Tarth's shortlist. How do you feel about that?

And again Tarth, if you're voting for me at least in part because I fall onto this list, why have you been focusing your attention elsewhere? You haven't responded to me at all.

What I think (in addition to the post I just made) is that you seem overly concerned about Tarth's theory. His theory basically targeted you and me, and I can honestly say that I barely gave it any thought. I saw it as flawed in this particular game, but even with it being flawed, the net result was that it made me feel good about Tarth because it showed that he was thinking about how to find the FM. And given that the theory actually also made him a suspect (since he was also off the mob), it showed that he was less concerned for his own welfare than finding the FM.

Meanwhile, you seem to be somewhat upset by it. Or at least that's the impression I'm getting right now. I need to go back and re-read your initial response.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

8 players remain: "Blue" Estermont, "Brown" Tarth, "Green" Connington, "Indigo" Frey, "Orange" Fossoway, "Red" Ashford, "Violet" Reed, "Yellow" Bolton..

5 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

3 votes for "Yellow" Bolton. ( "Brown" Tarth, "Orange" Fossoway, "Indigo" Frey)

1 vote for "Indigo" Frey ( "Yellow" Bolton.)

4 players have not voted: "Blue" Estermont, "Green" Connington, "Red" Ashford, "Violet" Reed.

[House Tyrell]

When I first read this post, it serriously wound me up...

My apologies. It wasn't my intention to piss you off. I try to play a civil game, so understand anything I said wasn't meant to be insulting, just matter-of-fact from my admittedly uninformed perspective.

And then you go and blatently ignore half of the post you quoted to change the entire meaning of my Vance vote. That really boiled my blood. I did not vote for Vance on Gut. my Gut liked him. I overrode my gut because I aggred with Conny's case. I still prefered Ashford but time was running out and a lynch of someone I felt suspisios (because of facts not Gut)was better than No-lynch in the hopes my biggest suspect was lynched.

So Bolton Yes I suck. Why did you ignore what I said to make your own meaning? Are you looking for an easy target?

I have a feeling that --as we now see-- this will be burning me more than it will you. I do have an explanation, but I don't think it will help my cause any.

In the post I quoted you said it was 'gut' that caused you to vote for Vance at first. That's the part I took away when I accused you. The whole thing on Vance was a tacked afterthought from my previous point. I obviously didn't read the paragraph thoroughly enough if you did ultimately say you 'liked Vance' in it.

Anyway, it's become quite clear I'm more of a distraction than anything else. I can't help it I guess, it's just my nature.

At least give me some time to compose some final thoughts before lynching me.

Also, Ashford did you reread me or not? Inquiring minds want to know :P

[House Tyrell]

Meanwhile, you seem to be somewhat upset by it. Or at least that's the impression I'm getting right now. I need to go back and re-read your initial response.

Well to be fair, Tarth followed up by voting for me, not you :P

[House Sunglass]

Been thinking about Frey. Let's break down his day 1 votes for a second. Imagine he's evil. What was his motivation?

Starts with a vote for Ashford. Is very wishy washy about both Ashford and Vance, the 2 top suspects. Then, near the end of the day, he drops the hammer on Vance, when the vote count was 5 for Vance and 4 for Ash. Claims that he thought we were running out of time, even though by his own account we had 20 minutes left (and in reality we had something like 40 minutes left).

Why move that vote?

Evil and Ashford partner - The motivation here is clear. He voted Ash to create distance, because he was afraid Ash might get lynched. Then, when an opportunity presented itself to lynch somebody else, he jumped on it. His claim that he thought were running out of time could be the cover for his true motive. This definitely fits if Ashford is evil.

Evil and not Ashford partner - This one is more difficult. Maybe he switches over to Vance because he really did think we were running out of time and he really wanted a lynch? But why put himself in the spotlight like that. I don't think a logical FM would have done it at that point - when choosing between 2 innocents, they would have probably just stuck with their original vote until the last minute. Because they would have wanted to avoid the scrutiny that comes with switching your vote to hammer an innocent (which they knew would be revealed by the CF).

Of course, Frey does (repeatedly) state that he's not a logical player. So maybe all of my analysis is pointless, if he's operating in a completely different manner. But that said, I can't help but conclude that Frey makes sense as an FM if Ashford is evil. But if Ashford is innocent, then I don't suspect Frey much.

Unfortunately, that doesn't get us far by itself, since we don't know Ashford's alignment. Unless we lynch Ashford....

[House Sunglass]

Well to be fair, Tarth followed up by voting for me, not you :P

Good point. :P

[House Pommingham]

Estermont, you're also on Tarth's shortlist. How do you feel about that?

And again Tarth, if you're voting for me at least in part because I fall onto this list, why have you been focusing your attention elsewhere? You haven't responded to me at all.

I made a list of players who I want to reread. It's Reed, Estermont and you.

[House Frey]

No need to appolgise. Its not you I'm mad at. I'm a bit emotonally fragile.

My apologies. It wasn't my intention to piss you off. I try to play a civil game, so understand anything I said wasn't meant to be insulting, just matter-of-fact from my admittedly uninformed perspective.

I have a feeling that --as we now see-- this will be burning me more than it will you. I do have an explanation, but I don't think it will help my cause any.

In the post I quoted you said it was 'gut' that caused you to vote for Vance at first. That's the part I took away when I accused you. The whole thing on Vance was a tacked afterthought from my previous point. I obviously didn't read the paragraph thoroughly enough if you did ultimately say you 'liked Vance' in it.

Anyway, it's become quite clear I'm more of a distraction than anything else. I can't help it I guess, it's just my nature.

At least give me some time to compose some final thoughts before lynching me.

Also, Ashford did you reread me or not? Inquiring minds want to know :P

That's clearly not what I said. This post is a response to someone's question on why I liked Conny's case. In an earlier post - one I think you among others accused me of being wishywashy I say something like "my Gut likes Vance but Conny's case paints him in a different light"

Most day one cases are not very good. I think the case against Vance had more merit that you thought obviously. My feelings on Vance where gut based up until I read that case (and the one just before it) So I looked at the case and considered it. I found nothing strange about voting Targ in the early RP stages of the game considering the setting and what was said in the thread at the time. I did find it odd that Vance found it so odd - esspecailly when he used it as evidance of fake contribution. Maybe if Vance had said "the joke was a little off, or Fossaway was scared to joke vote anyone else" then I would have dissmissed Conny's case on Vance.

there's still 2 votes left till your lynched I think you have time.

[House Tyrell]

I made a list of players who I want to reread. It's Reed, Estermont and you.

Why do I get the feeling I'll be lynched before you ever get around to that reread of me?

[House Pommingham]

All right, I finished my Reed reread. There's not much to add, only haikus and jokes. The only post with content was his Westerling reread.

Question: If you wondered about Westerling's change of mind regarding Bolton, why didn't you ask straight away, but waited until he was dead?

Conclusion:

Reed has an amazingly low level of content. He posts alot, but almost never gets caught in a discussion. Some comments, one reread but otherwise not much involvement. Worrysome indeed!

[House Pommingham]

Why do I get the feeling I'll be lynched before you ever get around to that reread of me?

Do you expect me to safe your neck? Why don't you help yourself by writing down some elaborated opinions about other players? ;)

[House Tyrell]

Most day one cases are not very good. I think the case against Vance had more merit that you thought obviously. My feelings on Vance where gut based up until I read that case (and the one just before it) So I looked at the case and considered it. I found nothing strange about voting Targ in the early RP stages of the game considering the setting and what was said in the thread at the time. I did find it odd that Vance found it so odd - esspecailly when he used it as evidance of fake contribution. Maybe if Vance had said "the joke was a little off, or Fossaway was scared to joke vote anyone else" then I would have dissmissed Conny's case on Vance.

It's the underlined part that stuck in my mind when I read it. I assumed 'gut'=bad feelings, meaning you had bad feelings about Vance and then found a case to back it up.

Yes, I should have read the paragraph more thoroughly.

[House Ashford]

Conclusion:

Reed has an amazingly low level of content. He posts alot, but almost never gets caught in a discussion. Some comments, one reread but otherwise not much involvement. Worrysome indeed!

Worrisome enough to vote for?

I am not seeing the Bolton lynch. Connie is mid ground, Frey has showed up again and hopefully will be useful. We have 14 hours, so that is enough time for contribution.

edit: punctuation (? not .)

[House Tyrell]

Do you expect me to safe your neck? Why don't you help yourself by writing down some elaborated opinions about other players? ;)

I don't expect you to save my neck, no. But I'd prefer you get your reread done when there is still the possibility you can change your mind about me. You know, before anything irreversible occurs.

And a better summation of my opinions on people is coming... I'm waiting on someone's response first.

[House Pommingham]

Working on my Estermont reread right now. Those of you who worship the idea that FM have a rather hard time how to start the game might ge happy to hear that Estermont skipped the RP and chose to question other players (Westerling, Reed) instead. That's safer than to be questioned yourself, but of course he also risks that the others might strike back.

I already voted Estermont yesterday for having too many suspects too early in the game:

I don't see how a mod's explanation of the details of a role would reveal whether or not it's being used.

That said, I think I'll vote Reed. Also want to vote for Westerling, but at the moment I find Reed's tone and attempt to avoid conflict to be more suspicious.

That said I'm wary of those players who start almost every post by quoting someone else. Fm prefer to react, not to act. So far Estermont has only been reacting.

Estermont then gets attacked by Ashford, but since Ashy mixed up the facts Estermont had an easy time to defend himself and again.

He switches his vote to Ashford here, based on Ashford's wrong assumptions. I can see the case, so no problem with this (other than it's an easy vote).

Frowns at Connington and Frey for not participating, asks Bolton why he missed Frey's inactivity. This isn't suspicious and he finally widens his focus, leaving the Reed/Ashford-debate.

That's the end of day 1. So far estermont hasn't been terribly suspicious, but he's playing the game somewhat safe by only reacting to others. I miss some general statements about the overall situation, RP and stuff. He had no interaction with Westerling IIRC, so the kill would make some sense from his PoV.

ETA:

Worrisome enough to vote for?

I am not seeing the Bolton lynch. Connie is mid ground, Frey has showed up again and hopefully will be useful. We have 14 hours, so that is enough time for contribution.

edit: punctuation (? not .)

Reed is certainly on my to-lynch-list. Could you tell us a bit more about your thoughts on Bolton and Connington?

[House Ashford]

Looking at Bolton, he has a lot of posts. There are a few poems and some fluff, but the majority are solid posts.

He has no problems stating his feelings or pushing others for responses. I find him mostly reasonable and agree with a lot of what he says. I didn't see the case before rereading him, and I am not seeing it afterwards. I am sure we can find a better lynch for the day.

[House Ashford]

Reed is certainly on my to-lynch-list. Could you tell us a bit more about your thoughts on Bolton and Connington?

I am on the fence with Connie. I can see some inconsistencies in his posts and actions, but not enough to vote over others at the moment.

[House Ashford]

Reed is certainly on my to-lynch-list. Could you tell us a bit more about your thoughts on Bolton and Connington?

I am on the fence with Connie. I can see some inconsistencies in his posts and actions, but not enough to vote over others at the moment. Frey's lack of content and what he does have is so wishy-washy as to be not helpful put him at the top of my list. Frey

edit: argh. laptop issues. buttons keep sticking. sorry for the double post, but the vote was in the second one.