Mafia 75 -- Revolution in Vanillaville

[House Ashford]

Well the main point of the bothersome word is that I didn't know what it means, in mafia terms. In general, i'd use bothersome for annoying or getting in my way, rather than suspicious. But if bothersome does mean suspicious, as you say, then it's not so bad, but the rest of that post was worse.

Everyone has to have a top suspect. How else do you vote?

What do you mean by following up with my own comments? Do you mean, did I mention it again? No, I didn't. Not sure how many times you think I should mention something? Estermont did overreact, sure, but it wasn't IMO the most suspicious thing around.

Don't get it, sorry. What exactly have I done that i've attacked other people for? :unsure:

You have it right above. What bothered me about it, is that you demanded everyone else explain every comment and/or decision they made, while you made a comment and never even asked Estermont about it. In fact, it was never directed to him at all, just kind of tucked away in the middle of a post about another player. It didn't match your pattern of play. This bothers me.

[House Pommingham]

Since it has not been commented yet I better repeat my assumption as a question:

Do you think that an FM would forget his night target when he's listing his suspects?

What does that mean' date=' had an easy time to blame everyone?[/quote']

Easy time means that you missed the first half (or more) of day 1. While the others had to find some material to work with step by step you already had something to work with when you finally started playing. You also had the advantage that we couldn't analyze your posts, since you didn't make any.

[House Dalt]

Since it has not been commented yet I better repeat my assumption as a question:

Do you think that an FM would forget his night target when he's listing his suspects?

In answer to your question, I could see it happening. Either from the oversight of "Oh, he'll be dead tonight I don't need to worry about him", or from the fact that he decided on his kill later. So I would be inclined to put down that bit of evidence under the WIFOM column.

[House Connington]

You have it right above. What bothered me about it, is that you demanded everyone else explain every comment and/or decision they made, while you made a comment and never even asked Estermont about it. In fact, it was never directed to him at all, just kind of tucked away in the middle of a post about another player. It didn't match your pattern of play. This bothers me.

Ah, well I do ask people to explain themselves a lot, but only when there's something to be explained, something I don't understand. My questions are genuine attempts to get into the head of the players. An overreaction is an overreaction, and I can't think why an explanation would be needed. It's just suspicious behaviour to be noted.

[House Connington]

Easy time means that you missed the first half (or more) of day 1. While the others had to find some material to work with step by step you already had something to work with when you finally started playing. You also had the advantage that we couldn't analyze your posts, since you didn't make any.

Yes, my evil plan was to attract attention for non contribution. Then i'd have the game by the scruff of the neck. :wideeyed:

[House Dalt]

This argument bugs the shit out of me...

Gah! I can't even describe how annoyed I am right now. There's nothing I can even address with it.

I don't even think statistically this holds true -- admittedly, I haven't done the research either, but it's just... not true. Gah!

And besides, you're on the list of players who didn't vote Vance too!

Not listening and disagreeing are two different things. I really wasn't looking for your input on the matter anyway, I wanted to hear from Frey.

This seems like an odd post to me. First of all, it's an odd thing to get worked up about, and second of all, Bolton's behaviour once worked up seems bizarre. Usually, I would have expected someone in this situation to (a) argue Tarth's assertion, perhaps giving the reasons why he doesn't feel it's true, (B) suggest an alternative interpretation of the votes, or © respond with an attack on Tarth to apply some pressure.

Instead, we have a very passive response. No insight, no argumentation, no drive to set the record straight. And that last "And besides" sentence reads incredibly defensively to me. It's as if Bolton really feels pressured by this, which doesn't really fit with the strength of the prodding Tarth is doing.

Bolton

[House Pommingham]

Yes, my evil plan was to attract attention for non contribution. Then i'd have the game by the scruff of the neck. :wideeyed:

I don't say it was an evil plan. I said you had a rather easy time compared to those that you attacked.

In answer to your question, I could see it happening. Either from the oversight of "Oh, he'll be dead tonight I don't need to worry about him", or from the fact that he decided on his kill later. So I would be inclined to put down that bit of evidence under the WIFOM column.

He forgot not only Westerling, but me too. He mentioned that he forgot me only minutes before he axed Vance and the day ended. That means that he thought about those who he forgot in his recent post, discovered my absence but still didn't realize that Westerling was playing. I guess if Frey was an FM the killers had their talk about nigth actions before he axed Vance (the only one who wasn't around for a longer time to leave either a note or to discuss things was Bolton IIRC), so your escond point is not WIOFM, but rather unlikely.

Note that he could have put Westerling in the same tier as his "I have good feeling for right now" suspects (Estermont, Fossoway and Reed). That's why I think that your first theory does not fit. The second one only works when it was his partner who suggested the Westerling kill and they had their discussion during the night.

[House Tyrell]

As I said I'm a gut based player, I know it pisses other people off but I can't chance my personality. On my quick read though the thread it felt like Estermont, Fossaway and Reed where putting work into the game. They made the right noises. Reed even had slight pressure (not sure pressure is the right word) but he argued his side well. It made me feel good.

So do you still feel this way?

Can you provide us with any impressions on Estermont or Fossoway?

Who are your current suspects?

My Gut can be wrong - I know this, espsically Gut based on Day 1. As new information arrives I can react and change my mind.

Instead of providing us with a long-winded explanation of how your gut works you could have used the time to provide us with some actual thoughts based on what's been occuring in the game. That's the problem, you seem to be a very reactionary player, not posting thoughts unless prodded.

Also, you voted Vance purely on 'gut'?

Helped lynch someone who was potentially useful and contributing based on your completely useless 'vibes'?

My guttural instincts are telling me they like where my vote's at right now. I think I'll stay with it.

Do you think that an FM would forget his night target when he's listing his suspects?

I don't really see what you're getting at with this. Why wouldn't they?

This seems like an odd post to me. First of all, it's an odd thing to get worked up about, and second of all, Bolton's behaviour once worked up seems bizarre. Usually, I would have expected someone in this situation to (a) argue Tarth's assertion, perhaps giving the reasons why he doesn't feel it's true, (B) suggest an alternative interpretation of the votes, or © respond with an attack on Tarth to apply some pressure.

It's an argument that frustrated me because I have no defense against it. I mean, knowing I'm not the guilty party off of the lynch mob, I could turn Tarth's own point against him and attack him for also not being on it, but ultimately I think his logic is flawed.

As far as I know there's no hard data that says there will be one FM on and one FM off the lynch mob. Until there is it seems like a cheap way to draw suspicion to someone. I am suspicious of Tarth for using it.

Instead, we have a very passive response. No insight, no argumentation, no drive to set the record straight. And that last "And besides" sentence reads incredibly defensively to me. It's as if Bolton really feels pressured by this, which doesn't really fit with the strength of the prodding Tarth is doing.

Bolton

Who was I supposed to argue with? Up until you mentioned it just now no one --including Tarth-- followed up on it.

[House Tyrell]

He forgot not only Westerling, but me too. He mentioned that he forgot me only minutes before he axed Vance and the day ended. That means that he thought about those who he forgot in his recent post, discovered my absence but still didn't realize that Westerling was playing. I guess if Frey was an FM the killers had their talk about nigth actions before he axed Vance (the only one who wasn't around for a longer time to leave either a note or to discuss things was Bolton IIRC), so your escond point is not WIOFM, but rather unlikely.

Note that he could have put Westerling in the same tier as his "I have good feeling for right now" suspects (Estermont, Fossoway and Reed). That's why I think that your first theory does not fit. The second one only works when it was his partner who suggested the Westerling kill and they had their discussion during the night.

OK, I get what you mean now, however there are two gaping holes in the idea:

1) As you said, it could have been the partner that picked --I've left it up to partners to pick for me in the past.

2) He could have deliberately left him off his list already knowing he was the NK target. Heck, maybe you and he are working in collaboration which is why you're the one bringing up this point of information today :P

edit: To be honest as suspicious as I am of Frey I'm beginning to think he looks too much like Vyrwel from last game --namely an innocent whose just not willing to pick up the slack and contribute.

Also, where is everyone? Seems like no one is ever around when I'm posting :(

[House Pommingham]

OK, I get what you mean now, however there are two gaping holes in the idea:

1) As you said, it could have been the partner that picked --I've left it up to partners to pick for me in the past.

2) He could have deliberately left him off his list already knowing he was the NK target. Heck, maybe you and he are working in collaboration which is why you're the one bringing up this point of information today :P

edit: To be honest as suspicious as I am of Frey I'm beginning to think he looks too much like Vyrwel from last game --namely an innocent whose just not willing to pick up the slack and contribute.

Also, where is everyone? Seems like no one is ever around when I'm posting :(

This game is abaout probabilites, not facts - at least when you're not a finder. I think it's likely that Frey is not an FM based on my theory. Of course there are "ifs" and "buts", but then there's also Occam's Razor, a tool that works most of the times.

[House Tyrell]

This game is abaout probabilites, not facts - at least when you're not a finder. I think it's likely that Frey is not an FM based on my theory. Of course there are "ifs" and "buts", but then there's also Occam's Razor, a tool that works most of the times.

Yeah, but this is the second big idea you're bringing to the table with glaring holes in it --the first being (at least in part) the reason you're voting for me right now.

It's something to consider obviously but I don't think it's something that can determine guilt or innocence beyond a reasonable doubt.

Also, why haven't you followed up on your suspicions of people off the lynch mob? In fact, I don't even think you've scrutinized Estermont at all.

[House Ashford]

Looking at Fossoway, I liked his day one posts a lot more than his post today. I am not following his reasoning, I guess. There isn't a lot to go on, but he has only made one case, on Bolton, that seems to be the result of a disagreement over Frey. That just seems weird to me.

I had expected Frey to be back and posting more today, but he is still mostly missing. All we have are a few wishy washy posts from day one. It's too hard to make cases on someone when they don't post anything, so I'll go on record and say we can't afford the dead weight. If he doesn't start posting, we should consider him a viable lynch. Time left?

[House Ashford]

Ah, well I do ask people to explain themselves a lot, but only when there's something to be explained, something I don't understand. My questions are genuine attempts to get into the head of the players. An overreaction is an overreaction, and I can't think why an explanation would be needed. It's just suspicious behaviour to be noted.

Remove vote. I still don't like your play much, but that's not enough for voting, for some. :P

I want to look at Bolton next. I don't agree with Fossoway's reasoning for voting, but there might be something more there.

[House Tyrell]

Looking at Fossoway, I liked his day one posts a lot more than his post today. I am not following his reasoning, I guess. There isn't a lot to go on, but he has only made one case, on Bolton, that seems to be the result of a disagreement over Frey. That just seems weird to me.

What exactly are you talking about here? Fossoway doesn't even mention his opinion on Frey in his case against me.

[House Pommingham]

I'm currently rereading the thread, focussing on Reed. As we all remember, Westerling placed the first serious vote on Reed for role fishing. Here is Westerling's explanation:

Well, if you had this role, you would probably ask mods for clarification via PM. If you were innocent with another (or no) role, you would probably dismiss such a role as unlikely.

Your question fits as either idle curiosity or a sort of role-fishing by a guilty. If it's the former, sorry; but there is a decent chance of the latter, and we haven't seen anything suspicious but this yet.

Could it be that Westerling was killed for this post because the FM thought he might be roled? Well, if Reed was an rolefishing FM Westerling's death was even more tragic.

I don't think using a self-killing Hider is all that unlikely, just wacky. As Vance says, we're playing with evens here, but also that it would function as an risky finder, but one that would be pretty irrefutable. We have a CF to prove that a dead Hider was innocent, so such a role is quite the powerful one if they played their cards right and we knew their target. Pretty big IF there though.

No need for apologies. We're at page one, so I say you ought to jump at shadows however much you like! I mean, what else are we going to do? Start a band?

I don't like Reed's answer, as it doesn't answer Westerling's case about role fishing. But then I think that if Reed was a killer, he probably would have been more observant and had answered to Westerling's accusation in a proper way. (Apparently Bolton and Estermont also didn't get the role fishing thing, so the latter point might be moot <_< )

Your response to Westerling gives me the impression that you want to avoid conflict.

I didn't agree with Estermont at the time, but now I think he might have had a point. Weird! Perhaps it's because Reed kept up with that behaviour later in the game...

Bolton later agrees with Estermont about Reed. Estermont votes Reed.

I don't like this post from Bolton. I admit I'm a little biased since I'm not suspicious of myself, but for someone that thinks Day 1 needs to be a tit-for-tat and then comes back to ask how Ashford's hangin', I'm not impressed. Doesn't help that he merely echoes Estermont's sentiments here either.

Bolton before I call it a day. Nothing else has struck me as any more suspicious than the next. Catch you all tomorrow.

One could have made exactly the same case on Reed at this point of the game. Not only didn't contribute anything so far and basiacally parroted Fossoway's thougts on Bolton. H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Reed vanishes for a while and returns with the decisive vote on Vance:

This is the only post of Vance's that I really don't like. It's a pretty useless defense, and even as a rusty player, Vance ought to be able to recognize that all of this means nothing to the rest of the players.

Otherwise, he does have a habit of using a lot of words to say not very much, which doesn't actually bother me much. I can't say I have any firm opinions of everyone today, so I'd end up saying I'm a little suspicious or not really suspicious or etc as well--except I know better.

As for Ashford, the only impression I have of him is mostly good, honestly. He seems like he's genuinely looking for the killers. I like Vance's activity levels better, but I'll take Ashford at his word that he'll be more involved, so I'd rather lynch Vance

Bolton sits funny in my gut still, but I can see that he's not a likely lynch option. I don't recall Connington's existence in this game, so I'm no fan of his either. Everyone else I'm basically okay with atm, though I want to reread Tarth and Fossoway later.

I like that he's not shy of taking the responsibility, but he also didn't put much effort in his thoughts. He followed the rest, labelled his mob on Bolton hopeless and has little else to say. Likes Ashford for a post that even Ashford would prefer to forget. I wonder if he ever read Estermont's case.

This I disagree with:

...You seriously need to ask this? Considering we weren't sure how much time we had left to fiddle around with compromising, I say better hammer sooner than later. I was a swing vote, and I get you wanting to hear my thoughts, but Frey wasn't and he did what any player ought to do regardless of alignment.

In general, I don't like posts that serve only to ask for other people's opinions. It's such pseudo-contribution that seems aggressive without actually being so.

Trying to get input from a player is pseudo-contribution? :huh:

Don't like this post. It's just so nervous. Some people miss day's end--shit happens. I think it's FMish to assume doing so would be suspicious enough to preemptively make excuses like this. I believe you were asleep or busy brushing your teeth or whatever--the lack of a Day 1 countdown sucked--but why not say as much as leave it at that? It's a Day 1 lynch, and whoop-de-doo, we nabbed an innocent. That's how it goes down most of the time, nothing really even worth commenting on. With the hesitant quasi-stated statements and apologetic excuses, this CF reaction (and lynch reaction) rings scummy to me.

Also, you did make the statements 'I'm pissed' and 'I would have voted Ashford over Vance.' Albeit in an overly on-the-fence, wishy-washy manner, but you totally did js. Why pretend otherwise?

And the double :P use is my equivalent of the exclamation mark, apparently. It sits unwell with me.

This time I actually agree with Reed. Seems a bit tunnelvisioned on Bolton though.

Now I need a break.... :leaving:

[House Ashford]

What exactly are you talking about here? Fossoway doesn't even mention his opinion on Frey in his case against me.

Sorry I wasn't clear. It's the FM are one on/one off of lynches. You strongly disagreed with that theory. It was a part of the whole discussion. This lead back to Frey, but indirectly.

[House Sunglass]

I'm back, but pretty busy at work. I'm going to try to re-read everyone today. Hopefully, I'll have time. Might not be able to post a big summary on everyone, but at the very least I want to get my thoughts in order.

[House Tyrell]

Sorry I wasn't clear. It's the FM are one on/one off of lynches. You strongly disagreed with that theory. It was a part of the whole discussion. This lead back to Frey, but indirectly.

I don't disagree with the theory entirely, I just don't think our lynches should be based on it alone. For one thing, I'm innocent and I don't want this argument to be one of the primary reasons I'm lynched (which is looking likely).

Hmmm... actually I'm still brewing this in my mind myself...

A lot of my objections to the 'one off, one on' rule being applied to Tarth or Estermont is that the other person besides Vance (obviously) not on the Vance lynch was night killed.

Would the FM eliminate names from an already small pool if they knew/suspected people would look towards that pool for suspects?

And if so --or if killing Westerling was an oversight on their part-- are they more or less likely to draw attention to the other players in the small suspect pool?

In other words, I'm still not sure if this makes me feel more secure that Tarth isn't a FM or less.

Sorry, I know that last bit is all WIFOM. I'm just going through my thought process. Input appreciated.

edit: actually my logic is flawed here as Westerling would have had to be voting for Ashford. My bad... I was sort of writing stream of consciousness :P

The point I think I can salvage however is this: Would a FM be more or less likely to draw attention to a small suspect pool if they themselves are part of that small pool?

[House Frey]

When I first read this post, it serriously wound me up. I even wrote a rather nasty comeback which you really didn't deserve. Luckily for the harmouy of the game I stopped myself before posting and went away to calm down. So I appologise for insulting you. Its not your faulty I'm irratble and have been pushed right to the edge. I won't take my anger out on someone who doesn't desver it, I'm better than that.

truth is I'm not in a good mental position to play mafia right now. I'm tired, having to deal with Nick Griffin's fascit Grandfather and other related crap. On top of this extra stress something is effecting my playing time. When I'm at home its sporrodic and very disturbed. right now I'm at work, and sometimes they expect me to work. I have asked to be replaced, I will not let myself be modkilled. You would actually be doing me a favour by lynching me today or killing me tonight.

So do you still feel this way?

Can you provide us with any impressions on Estermont or Fossoway?

Who are your current suspects?

Instead of providing us with a long-winded explanation of how your gut works you could have used the time to provide us with some actual thoughts based on what's been occuring in the game. That's the problem, you seem to be a very reactionary player, not posting thoughts unless prodded.

Also, you voted Vance purely on 'gut'?

Helped lynch someone who was potentially useful and contributing based on your completely useless 'vibes'?

My guttural instincts are telling me they like where my vote's at right now. I think I'll stay with it.

What anoyed me is the fact you are having a go at me for answering somebodies questions and not scourring the thread for new clues. Yes I'm being reactionary, I've not had time to be anything else.

And then you go and blatently ignore half of the post you quoted to change the entire meaning of my Vance vote. That really boiled my blood. I did not vote for Vance on Gut. my Gut liked him. I overrode my gut because I aggred with Conny's case. I still prefered Ashford but time was running out and a lynch of someone I felt suspisios (because of facts not Gut)was better than No-lynch in the hopes my biggest suspect was lynched.

So Bolton Yes I suck. Why did you ignore what I said to make your own meaning? Are you looking for an easy target?

As to your other questions I haven't really had the chance to think about the game yet today. But (providing I am not disturbed by work) I will re-read the thread and pay particular attention to Estermont and Fossaway

[House Tyrell]

Estermont, you're also on Tarth's shortlist. How do you feel about that?

And again Tarth, if you're voting for me at least in part because I fall onto this list, why have you been focusing your attention elsewhere? You haven't responded to me at all.