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[ADWD SPOILERS] Jon 7


Xray the Enforcer

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I hope Stannis can see the trap, I find it a bit strange that Stannis is the experienced General yet Jon is the one making all the right calls with regard to military strategy. Also I am growing to like Stannis more and more, I hope the battle at Winterfell won't be his undoing.

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Arnolf Karstark is really with Bolton, correct?

Both sides seem to think they have Arnolf Karstark. Boltons think that Karstark is feigning support to the other side, but that could be a reason to meet up with others without being caught. Basically we have no idea where karstark's loyalty lies at this point.

With the support Stannis seems to be gaining in the north and how far back karstarks and starks go I'm leaning towards karstarks betraying boltons, especially if they have got any clue and/or proof of how terrible Roose's bastard actually is.

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Both sides seem to think they have Arnolf Karstark. Boltons think that Karstark is feigning support to the other side, but that could be a reason to meet up with others without being caught. Basically we have no idea where karstark's loyalty lies at this point.

With the support Stannis seems to be gaining in the north and how far back karstarks and starks go I'm leaning towards karstarks betraying boltons, especially if they have got any clue and/or proof of how terrible Roose's bastard actually is.

My vote is that the Karstarks are Schrodinger's Ally. They'll stick with whichever side seems likely to be the winner. Why bother deciding whose side they're really on yet?

As for Jon being a better general than Stannis, I have three answers to that. First, Jon is savvy to the political dimension, to which Stannis tends to be tone-deaf. Second, Jon knows the Northmen and the culture-- he's lived there all his life and would be at a disadvantage compared to Stannis in, say, the Stormlands. Third, Jon knows the climate-- all the southron soldiers are direly underestimating how bad the weather can get.

Except for the first point, Jon need not be better in some cosmic sense. He just knows the North better.

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Seems wholly plausible that Stannis is walking into a trap, blind to possible betrayal... yet at the same time he doesn't yet know about Manderly's coup, so he's going in there expecting the worst. He should have some decent strategy hopefully.

I'm still wondering about Maege Mormont and King Robb's decree- could it be that he named an heir to Winterfell, but also affirmed the price of Winterfell is that that they bend the knee to Stannis? Robb knew it was only necessary should the worst happen, so he may have predicted there wouldn't be a 'replacement' king in the north. Slightly crackpot but it's what I've been hoping for a while. It'd certainly rally the North to Stannis' cause, pretty much unanimously except for the Boltons/Freys.

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Correct. Unless Manderlay's coup against the Boltons/Freys goes deeper than we know...

Stannis also holds information pretty close to his chest, so it's possible he knows something about Karstark's loyalties that he isn't sharing. Stannis is marching toward a trap, but surely he understands this. The guy always seems to have something up his sleeve.

I bet Jon wants the corpses to turn so he can hand them over to Mel for questioning or whatever passes for questioning when it comes to fundamentalist sorceresses.

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I don’t think Stannis has a secret plan, think he’s just spent too long grinding his teeth and is itching to fight Roose and beat him in the field in the same way he wanted to capture the Dreadfort. No doubt his advisers are egging him on. Interesting fellow Stannis; he has the personality of a very impatient person, but other times he can be surprisingly patient. I’m starting to quite like him too, though he has had a couple of really funny lines in this book that have helped (“must I make you swear it in front of a tree?”)

Something huge is going to happen at Winterfell and I can’t wait. It’s such an icon of the story that we haven’t seen in so long, and now there’s two armies converging on it and a wedding planned. Also, until now Theon’s been trying to forget all about his former life, but seeing the place where he grew up is going to awaken all those memories again, but he’s in a totally different frame of mind to process it: who knows how he’ll react, or what he’ll try to do

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The first truly pointless chapter of the book. In all other chapters I felt there was at least some interesting, plot advancing point,or at least some interesting new detail of the world we learn which will be relevant to the plot later on. This chapter was simply a stroll outside the wall.

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I hope Stannis can see the trap, I find it a bit strange that Stannis is the experienced General yet Jon is the one making all the right calls with regard to military strategy.

Yes this is rather contrived, and it's very similar to the situation with Dany in a Storm of Swords, where she was out of the blue coming up with truly excellent battle strategies.

Also I am growing to like Stannis more and more, I hope the battle at Winterfell won't be his undoing.

STANNIS! STANNIS! KING OF THE SEVEN KINGDOMS!!

I had a grin on from ear to ear the whole time Jon was reading Stannis' letter. :D

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So there's a massive giant on the Wall now. I can't help but feel something horrible will happen between him and the black brothers.

he's going to be the 1st giant black brother ;)

it dark, now me watch.

not end until me dead.

no wife, no lands, no children.

me wear no crowns and win no glory.

I'll get my coat

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  • 2 weeks later...

This chapter gives me a sense of foreboding. Jon is changing too many things for the Night's Watch - giving Stannis Brandon's Gift to resettle the wildlings, taking in the wildlings and feeding them, letting wildings join the watch without oath, letting wildlings join the watch and take the oath, taking in women wildlings (spearwives) to man the wall, giving Stannis strategic counsel, walking hand in hand with Mel in sight of his men, and now bringing in a giant.

Someone (my money is on the Lord Steward, but it can also be Dolores Edd - I have a mistrust for men who jape too much) is going to freak out, and stab him in the back. I just hope GRRM does not kill off Jon Snow like he did Robb.

On another point, who do you think the girl in grey on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage is? Obviously it is not Arya, and I don't think it is Jeanne Poole either. That leaves Asha Greyjoy or Brienne of Tarth, but the marraige part does not fit in case of Brienne, and Asha's chapter gave the indication that she broke her leg and is captured by Stannis' army.

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  • 3 weeks later...

My vote is that the Karstarks are Schrodinger's Ally. They'll stick with whichever side seems likely to be the winner. Why bother deciding whose side they're really on yet?

As for Jon being a better general than Stannis, I have three answers to that. First, Jon is savvy to the political dimension, to which Stannis tends to be tone-deaf. Second, Jon knows the Northmen and the culture-- he's lived there all his life and would be at a disadvantage compared to Stannis in, say, the Stormlands. Third, Jon knows the climate-- all the southron soldiers are direly underestimating how bad the weather can get.

Except for the first point, Jon need not be better in some cosmic sense. He just knows the North better.

This. And he got good training from Ned growing up.

Things aren't looking good for Stannis though if Karstark and Umbers are really against them as Bolton believes.

I did laugh though when he thought that Bolton wouldn't give up such a prize if he had it. It's funny remembering that Arya was actually under his nose the whole time and he didn't know, or didn't protect it strongly enough if he did suspect.

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  • 2 months later...
On another point, who do you think the girl in grey on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage is? Obviously it is not Arya, and I don't think it is Jeanne Poole either. That leaves Asha Greyjoy or Brienne of Tarth, but the marraige part does not fit in case of Brienne, and Asha's chapter gave the indication that she broke her leg and is captured by Stannis' army.

It might be Sansa. Mel said that it hadn't happened yet. Little finger was setting up a marriage for Sansa at the end of AFfC. She might run, though I'm not sure. Asha does make some sense, but I'm not sure.... It might be Jeanne Pool...

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  • 5 weeks later...

On another point, who do you think the girl in grey on a dying horse, fleeing from her marriage is? Obviously it is not Arya, and I don't think it is Jeanne Poole either. That leaves Asha Greyjoy or Brienne of Tarth, but the marraige part does not fit in case of Brienne, and Asha's chapter gave the indication that she broke her leg and is captured by Stannis' army.

I was thinking it could be Lady Stoneheart, but I suppose it could be Brienne. So my money is on one of the two of them. They could come looking for Arya and end up retreating to the wall. I don't know. I don't have a lot of other guesses.

I keep wondering what is going on with Gilly's baby. We haven't heard anything about him for a while.

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