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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

theon stannis asha

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#1 Angalin

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 04:04 PM

As you were.

#2 alienarea

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 03:36 PM

Looks like we discussed this chapter to death.

#3 Triskele

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Posted 30 May 2012 - 07:34 PM

I think there's something so hilarious about how Theon is gleeful about the maester being caught! in his lie. A little bit of the old Theon where he laughs at everything.

#4 The Great Unwashed

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 08:02 PM

If this plays out like I think it will, we'll get to see Stannis in full tactical mode.

Here's how I see it playing out (and I'm sorry, but I didn't read through all 1600+ posts so apologies if I plagarize someone).

Stannis knows that approximately half of Bolton's force is on their way to him, with the other half holed up in Winterfell. He's uncovered Karstark's betrayal and has the two ravens that are trained to fly to Winterfell. He smashes the Freys, most likely with the help of Manderley's forces, and sends word by raven of victory and conspires with Manderley for Manderley to return with "proof" of Stannis' death, which perhaps explains the "7 days of battle" in the letter. In addition to proof, Manderly also returns with word that Arya Stark and Reek had been sent on to the Wall for protection. This is when Ramsay sends the letter to Castle Black. Most likely Manderley's forces will have been "decimated" (while in reality most of them joined Stannis' forces) so the Boltons know they will have to march on the Wall to get back Arya/Jeyne, since she's their only legitimate claim to Winterfell and there is no chance the Lord Commander will return her to them.

Meanwhile, Stannis' and Manderley's forces march up the Kingsroad to Winterfell and take the now lightly guarded castle, trapping Bolton's forces between Winterfell and the Wall.

I think the key piece of evidence is that Ramsay asks for Reek. If Stannis truly had been defeated, then Ramsay would have had Theon, since Stannis certainly wasn't going to release him, or at the least, Ramsay would have found out that Theon had been executed. The Boltons and Freys are about to receive their comeuppance.

#5 Faint

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 02:15 AM

I think the more likely scenario is that the men with Stannis simply put on Frey clothing and pull off a Trojan Horse maneuver in order to gain access to the castle.

#6 The Great Unwashed

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:27 AM

It's possible, but only if you're of the opinion that Ramsey's letter to the Wall was forged. I think it's genuine. Not to mention though that even if they did that, there wouldn't be enough Frey colors to outfit all of Stannis' forces and they'd still be outnumbered by Bolton's men inside the castle.

#7 Faint

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 01:52 PM

It's possible, but only if you're of the opinion that Ramsey's letter to the Wall was forged. I think it's genuine. Not to mention though that even if they did that, there wouldn't be enough Frey colors to outfit all of Stannis' forces and they'd still be outnumbered by Bolton's men inside the castle.


No, I do think Ramsay's letter is by his hand. I imagine he wrote and sent it at first word that Stannis had been defeated and 'Arya Stark' sent to the Wall for safe keeping. As for the disparity in forces, I think Stannis possess more than enough with Manderlay to take the castle, especially with the Boltons caught unawares. Also, this isn't about getting all of Stannis' men inside the castle immediately, they just need someone on the inside to open the gates (see Trojan War).

So, to be clear:

1. Stannis and Manderlay combine to slaughter the Frey force.
2. Manderlay returns, with some of Stannis' men dressed as Freys proclaiming victory (with Stannis' sword in hand, as proof).
3. Ramsay writes his letter to Jon Snow.
4. Later that night the gates are opened to allow the remainder of Stannis' men and the remaining Northmen inside to storm the castle while most of the Bolton men are asleep.
5. I also imagine as all of this is going on, many of the Northerners on the Bolton's side will switch allegiance (quite willingly, at that).

Edited by Faint, 03 June 2012 - 01:53 PM.


#8 Kings In The North

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Posted 04 June 2012 - 02:52 PM

If this plays out like I think it will, we'll get to see Stannis in full tactical mode.

This is when Ramsay sends the letter to Castle Black. Most likely Manderley's forces will have been "decimated" (while in reality most of them joined Stannis' forces) so the Boltons know they will have to march on the Wall to get back Arya/Jeyne, since she's their only legitimate claim to Winterfell and there is no chance the Lord Commander will return her to them.

Meanwhile, Stannis' and Manderley's forces march up the Kingsroad to Winterfell and take the now lightly guarded castle, trapping Bolton's forces between Winterfell and the Wall.

I think the key piece of evidence is that Ramsay asks for Reek. If Stannis truly had been defeated, then Ramsay would have had Theon, since Stannis certainly wasn't going to release him, or at the least, Ramsay would have found out that Theon had been executed. The Boltons and Freys are about to receive their comeuppance.



I like this. I didn't read through all 50,000 old posts either, but I haven't seen anyone else post the the part about drawing Bolton out of the Winterfell before (as opposed to tricking him into letting them inside Winterfell). They could be drawing him out to retake the castle, or even to ambush his men as they travel to the wall. Also, I agree with that part about demanding Theon back. If the Bolton's had in fact won the battle, Ramsey would either know what happened to Theon (if he's killed at the Godswood), or know that he was one of the captives (of course it is possible Theon escaped in the chaos).

One thing: what if Theon admits that he didn't kill the Stark boys right before he's beheaded, and Stannis allows him to take the black, and that's why Ramsey thinks he's at the Wall? I would really hate it if that were the case, but it seems possible.

I can't wait to see where this goes though. GRRM has set up SO many possibilities.

#9 The Great Unwashed

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Posted 04 June 2012 - 03:10 PM

One thing: what if Theon admits that he didn't kill the Stark boys right before he's beheaded, and Stannis allows him to take the black, and that's why Ramsey thinks he's at the Wall? I would really hate it if that were the case, but it seems possible.

I can't wait to see where this goes though. GRRM has set up SO many possibilities.


I suppose it's possible, but even if Theon admits that, I would see Stannis keeping him close so that Theon could testify to the truth to bolster the legitimacy of Rickon's claim until Rickon is produced. Any other way, I would just see the Northmen following Stannis revolting if Stannis allowed Theon to escape justice. Remember, his only crime wasn't the killing of Bran and Rickon...he sacked Winterfell before any of that, and paved the way for the tender mercies of the Boltons.

#10 LancePistachio

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Posted 04 June 2012 - 04:22 PM

Remember, his only crime wasn't the killing of Bran and Rickon...he sacked Winterfell before any of that, and paved the way for the tender mercies of the Boltons.


While I agree that wasn't his only crime, it was Ramsey and not Theon that sacked Winterfell. I'm not sure the northern lords that want him dead would believe his word though.

#11 Kings In The North

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Posted 04 June 2012 - 04:38 PM

I suppose it's possible, but even if Theon admits that, I would see Stannis keeping him close so that Theon could testify to the truth to bolster the legitimacy of Rickon's claim until Rickon is produced. Any other way, I would just see the Northmen following Stannis revolting if Stannis allowed Theon to escape justice. Remember, his only crime wasn't the killing of Bran and Rickon...he sacked Winterfell before any of that, and paved the way for the tender mercies of the Boltons.


You're probbably right about wanting to keep him close.

While I agree that wasn't his only crime, it was Ramsey and not Theon that sacked Winterfell. I'm not sure the northern lords that want him dead would believe his word though.


But he did sack Winterfell.. Not as bad as Ramsey did, but he climbed the walls, occupied it, and killed some of the people. Also, the North considers him a traitor.. So I think there's actually a pretty good chance it would be difficult for Stannis to get away with anything but executing him. The North will want blood, even if it's revealed he didn't kill the Stark boys.

#12 LordDolorousEdd

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 08:47 AM

this is my first post... and I have not read all the many many posts yet.

just some ideas...

if the letter is real why would Ramsey write it and not Roose? Roose is the head of the house.

if the letter is fake then how to Stannis know that Abel is Mance? I don't think that theon knew.... (might be wrong)
also how would stannis get pink sealing wax? (might seem silly but still a loose end)


I am sure that the raven's as key to Stannis's battle plan. My first thought was that he would send pretending to be karstark saying they had moved to a field advantages to him so that word would be sent to the freys and manderlys. So when stannis talked about not having natural defences "yet" that is what he meant. even if this is not the case i still think the birds will be important.

Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.

#13 DurararaFTW

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 12:09 PM

this is my first post... and I have not read all the many many posts yet.

just some ideas...

if the letter is real why would Ramsey write it and not Roose? Roose is the head of the house.

if the letter is fake then how to Stannis know that Abel is Mance? I don't think that theon knew.... (might be wrong)
also how would stannis get pink sealing wax? (might seem silly but still a loose end)


I am sure that the raven's as key to Stannis's battle plan. My first thought was that he would send pretending to be karstark saying they had moved to a field advantages to him so that word would be sent to the freys and manderlys. So when stannis talked about not having natural defences "yet" that is what he meant. even if this is not the case i still think the birds will be important.

Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.


It's possible that Mance himself was the one who wrote it. He has all the knowledge neccesary.

#14 Triskele

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 01:56 PM

It's possible that Mance himself was the one who wrote it. He has all the knowledge neccesary.


Why would Mance write such a thing, though?

#15 MtnLion

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 06:37 PM

Why would Mance write such a thing, though?

To consider why Mance would, you would first need to consider why anyone else would. Mance is in a tender position, and hostages would help him to extricate himself. Does anyone else have that motivation for demanding Selyse, Melisandre, and Shireen?

#16 DurararaFTW

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 07:15 PM

Look at Jon's responnse, he armed the Wildlings, and was prepared to lead them to Winterfell. All Mance's goal achieved I'd say, all that'd be left for him to do is show and take command.

#17 LordDolorousEdd

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 09:11 PM

I never really got why Jon went nuts and was going to march to me the letter did not really say anything that made it necessary, he could have stayed at the wall and waited (if there is something i missed)

#18 DeathFromBelow

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 09:16 PM

Deciding to leave the Wall was quite a hasty action. Even as Jon is doing the action he realises the many mistakes that are being made (e.g. not informing Melisandre or Queen Selyse, whose men were conspiciously absent during Jon announcement in the Shield Hall, save Ser Narbert and Ser Benethon, about his intentions). But if he believes the letter to be true then he cannot wait for an army of Norterners to march on Castle Black.

While the initial defence of Castle Black against the Thenns during the the Battle of Castle Black the Night's Watch, the Wildlings, and the Queen's men could not, "repel an attack of that magnitude"...from the south. Waiting for the Bolton force to march on Castle Black would prove to be a poor military tactic unless he wished to make terms.

Pretty much, Jon was put in a place where he had to march on the Bolton force or risk having all the gains made with the Wildlings come to an end. If he truly thought that Ramsey as Lord of Winterfell could not co-exist with Jon Snow Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

#19 jlk7e

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 12:33 PM

Theon and Asha will also have to split up (unless theon dies) because it seems pointless to have to POV characters in the same place for an extended amount of time but unless there is a point.


Ned, Arya, and Sansa were all together for all of Book I, and Sansa and Tyrion were in King's Landing together for all of Book II and most of Book III. I don't see why POV characters can't be in the same place for a while.

#20 DeathFromBelow

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 01:02 PM

I agree. It all depends on where their stories go from there. I doubt that Asha and Theon will remain in the same location for long.



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