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Varys new target


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18 replies to this topic

#1 Brynden Hamber

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:26 PM

Sorry if someone has already created this theory.
lets suppose Varys purpose really is to make fAegon king. In fact, he doesn't need battles to do this: only one more death. Tommen. I think this will happen at the begins of TWOW. Suddenly Margaery wouldn't be queen (and wouldn't be able to marry the new). Queen Myrcella would be with Doran, the Prince of Dorne and a probable fAegon ally.
Mace Tyrell objectives has always been the same since the begin of the war: Margaery queen and the Tyrells powerful. With Tommen dead, he would still have Kings Landing, but no king/queen. This leaves two possible scenarios:
1) fAegon married Arianne. This would mean that Mace would fight, as he hates Dorne and would gain nothing of the war if he didn't. In this scenario, the Tyrells would have more men, but there is still "The Reach isn't as powerful as Mace Tyrell thinks", which many people consider as Randyll Tarly and others betraying Mace. fAegon would probably win, as he would have more men and the surprise of the betrayal, but if Mace won, would he make Myrcella marry Wilas?
2) fAegon didn't marry Arianne. That's what I think Varys is planning. Mace would see the same solution he saw when Renly and Joffrey died: marry Margaery to the new king, who this time would be fAegon. Dorne would probably accept him as king, even married to Margaery. The Lannisters wouldn't be happy, but they are too weak at this moment. If confirmed as Warden of the North, Roose would accept him too. The Vale would remain neutral (or perhaps fight for Sansa, but fAegon being king isn't a problem to this). The Riverlands are destroyed and the Freys wouldn't risk themselves.
In both cases Aegon would probably win. All that is needed is Tommen dead.

#2 Mladen

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:32 PM

Aegon would win Lannisters if he could only kill Tommen. But I wouldn`t see him that open uniting with reach through marriage. Margaery is damaged goods by now, and I think marriage with Arianne is about to happen. Also, I don`t see Tommen getting killed so soon. At the end, Aegon`s worst enemy isn`t Lannister/Tyrell alliance, it`s Dany.

#3 Brynden Hamber

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:39 PM

Well, I think that he would marry Margaery for the throne without war, if she is judged and declared innocent as they can always say that she lost her maidenhead riding. You are right about Dany, but if she discovers Aegon is alive and reigning she would think he really was Aegon and the Targaryen heir. Perhaps she would go there and discover he is fake, then we would have the Dance 2.0 .

#4 Downright Daario

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 07:50 PM

No way FAegon would marry Margaery, even if she is found innocent, there is still a great stain on her name, also, with Tommen likely to die soon, Having been widowed by three kings is not exactly good for Tyrell PR.

#5 WinterKing

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 08:16 PM

I agree with you that murdering Tommen would split the Tyrell-Lannister alliance, but as others said fAegon will not marry Margeary and Varys objective is also to spread chaos, so that when fAegon is announced he will have a saviour-like aura.

#6 Usrnmhsnomning

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 08:40 PM

Aegon isn't going to marry Arianne. There's no political gain for doing so, really. At this point, Doran has no choice but to side with Aegon. Dany rejected him, and the Lannister-Tyrell alliance controls most of the 7 kingdoms. What's Doran going to do other than side with Aegon? He certainly isn't going to defend the Iron Throne. So that leaves independence, and he's already pointed out that Dorne realistically can't defend against a united enemy to hold their lands. I'm guessing Aegon turns Arianne down but demands Dorne join them anyway, and Doran grudgingly agrees. Aegon wants to keep himself free for Dany; the whole point of invading Westeros was to pique her interest and make her come to him.

#7 mrunderhill

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 08:47 PM

Aegon isn't going to marry Arianne. There's no political gain for doing so, really. At this point, Doran has no choice but to side with Aegon. Dany rejected him, and the Lannister-Tyrell alliance controls most of the 7 kingdoms. What's Doran going to do other than side with Aegon? He certainly isn't going to defend the Iron Throne. So that leaves independence, and he's already pointed out that Dorne realistically can't defend against a united enemy to hold their lands. I'm guessing Aegon turns Arianne down but demands Dorne join them anyway, and Doran grudgingly agrees. Aegon wants to keep himself free for Dany; the whole point of invading Westeros was to pique her interest and make her come to him.

I don't think Aegon will be as foolish as Dany. He won't reject Arianne and then demand Dorne's support. I can see him either agreeing or postponing the marriage until he has secured more of the realm. This would be the smart move.

#8 Ser Greg of House House

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 08:58 PM

Somehow I don't think Varys would want anything to do with the Tyrells.

#9 Usrnmhsnomning

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 09:09 PM

I don't think Aegon will be as foolish as Dany. He won't reject Arianne and then demand Dorne's support. I can see him either agreeing or postponing the marriage until he has secured more of the realm. This would be the smart move.


Don't forget Varys is supposedly the 'friend' Doran has in KL as well. Doran doesn't have a choice in the matter, and if Aegon rejects Arianne Doran has the option of assisting or turning his back on his own nephew.

Edited by Usrnmhsnomning, 24 May 2013 - 09:09 PM.


#10 OberynBlackfyre

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 09:09 PM

I think this essentially VERY VERY possible. I mean, if you come to think of it, Tommen being alive is really the only thing that is keeping the alliances/Lannisters/ power within Kings Landing. If Tommen were to die, Myrcella would become Queen, but yet she is in Dorne, thus forcing the Lannisters to send their strength to go and retrieve her if Dorne refuses to give her up, which is exactly what the Sand Snakes wanted because Dornish fighting on their own turf would essentially mean a loss for the Lannisters.

Plus, if Tommen dies, then what is going to cement the Tyrells to keep the alliance going with the Lannisters? It would have to be a Willas/Myrcella marriage yet I for some reason find that supremely unlikely. If Tommen dies, and then Aegon becomes known throughout the realm, I think the Tyrells would change sides as quick as a drop of a hat

#11 unSonofStannis

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 11:06 PM

Sorry if someone has already created this theory.
lets suppose Varys purpose really is to make fAegon king. In fact, he doesn't need battles to do this: only one more death. Tommen. I think this will happen at the begins of TWOW. Suddenly Margaery wouldn't be queen (and wouldn't be able to marry the new). Queen Myrcella would be with Doran, the Prince of Dorne and a probable fAegon ally.
Mace Tyrell objectives has always been the same since the begin of the war: Margaery queen and the Tyrells powerful. With Tommen dead, he would still have Kings Landing, but no king/queen. This leaves two possible scenarios:
1) fAegon married Arianne. This would mean that Mace would fight, as he hates Dorne and would gain nothing of the war if he didn't. In this scenario, the Tyrells would have more men, but there is still "The Reach isn't as powerful as Mace Tyrell thinks", which many people consider as Randyll Tarly and others betraying Mace. fAegon would probably win, as he would have more men and the surprise of the betrayal, but if Mace won, would he make Myrcella marry Wilas?
2) fAegon didn't marry Arianne. That's what I think Varys is planning. Mace would see the same solution he saw when Renly and Joffrey died: marry Margaery to the new king, who this time would be fAegon. Dorne would probably accept him as king, even married to Margaery. The Lannisters wouldn't be happy, but they are too weak at this moment. If confirmed as Warden of the North, Roose would accept him too. The Vale would remain neutral (or perhaps fight for Sansa, but fAegon being king isn't a problem to this). The Riverlands are destroyed and the Freys wouldn't risk themselves.
In both cases Aegon would probably win. All that is needed is Tommen dead.

A bit too predictable, there needs to be more plot twists.

#12 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 01:13 AM

If Tommen dies, Myrcella is Queen in the eyes of the Martells and they could encourage a marriage with fAegon, who they think should be the King. The Lannisters won't attack nor fight their own blood. If they believe that the Tyrells are behind the murder of Kevan and maybe Tywin (and who knows, maybe they end up suspecting they killed Joffrey), then they could get ride of them forever and favour Dorne. So, Tommen has to go.

But no, I don't think he's the new target of Varys', although he might try to cause more damage between the Lannisters and Tyrells, by killing maybe Mace or even Margaery.

#13 blood of the dragoon

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 05:41 AM

To truly sew chaos he needs to get around to some of these armies that aren't decimated yet. Like the vale and the reach.

There's really no need to keep beating on the lannisters, they're basically irrelevant at this point. The people just haven't figured it out yet, but they will soon. They have no army and all their competent leaders are dead.

Edited by blood of the dragoon, 25 May 2013 - 05:43 AM.


#14 The Mountain That Flies

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 06:16 AM

(F)Aegon will likely be pressured by Jon Cinningto into making a political marriage to cement his reign, with the argument that Dany is M.I.A. and kinf of irrelevant in Westeros at the moment. Depending on how Tommen dies (because it's all but confirmed that he will), the Tyrells may be the dominant power in King's landing, making Margary the obvious choice. However, if Arianne manages to reach (F)Aegon before King's landing is taken (and the city puts up good resistance, connecting to the Martells is more sensible.

Marrying Arianne would make a bit more PR sense, given the previous ties between the Targs and Martells, and at some point someone is going to name Margary the next Red Widow and realize that she's destined to die a maid. Tommen's death could come any number of ways, and Varys probably wouldn't even need to get involved.

#15 WinterKing

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 07:01 AM

To truly sew chaos he needs to get around to some of these armies that aren't decimated yet. Like the vale and the reach.

There's really no need to keep beating on the lannisters, they're basically irrelevant at this point. The people just haven't figured it out yet, but they will soon. They have no army and all their competent leaders are dead.

But the Lannisters still have the political power and a web of alliances.

#16 joluoto

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 09:02 AM

Tommen is a possibility, would blow the Lannister- Tyrrel alliance wide open.

Another is Randyll Tarly, one of the best generals alive loyal to the Lannister- Tyrrel pact.

#17 WinterKing

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Posted 25 May 2013 - 09:50 AM

Tommen is a possibility, would blow the Lannister- Tyrrel alliance wide open.

Another is Randyll Tarly, one of the best generals alive loyal to the Lannister- Tyrrel pact.

But Tarly is one of the Reach lords that might declare for fAegon.

#18 Bacchanale

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Posted 11 June 2013 - 09:04 PM

Tommen is a possibility, would blow the Lannister- Tyrrel alliance wide open.

Another is Randyll Tarly, one of the best generals alive loyal to the Lannister- Tyrrel pact.


I think Tommen is an unlikely target because Varys needs the Lannisters to grind down the Tyrells in both numbers and useful leaders and Cersei is the perfect agent to go about doing this. If Tommen died they'd be left in a position to just pack up, abandon KL and go back to Highgarden in their full strength to do deal with Euron first then have enough left capable of defeating Faegon/JC/Martells if they attack.


One other possibility I think might happen is that Varys will target the Faith/Faith Militant next to provoke hostility towards the Tyrells if Cersei is executed and Ser Robert exposed given they have the potential to seriously harm the Tyrells in KL, especially if they kill Margaery.

#19 Dana Holland

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Posted 11 June 2013 - 09:12 PM

I like the idea of tarly betraying mace. I am really hopping that Aegon isn't fake and is true just to shut dany up