Siege of Meereen

[Light a wight tonight]

Dany's out of town and Ser Barristan is in charge of the defense. Outside the besiegers are (literally) in deep shit with the Pale Mare running rampant. Barry and Shavepate are planning on an assault on the weakened besiegers, which would have a good chance of succeeding if the Second Sons are co-opted.

Meanwhile there are fleets from Volantis and other cities on the way to take part in the sack of Meereen. And the Iron Fleet is on its way to get control of Dany.

Supposing that the besiegers are defeated and put to flight, can the Meereenese repel the Volantenes and their allies? Does the Iron Fleet attack them at sea, or hit them from behind after they land at Meereen?

And is the whole thing over by the time Dany finds her way back?

[Dragonstar]

There's some spoilerific info regarding this from a Barristan POV chapter that GRRM read at one of the cons recently.

[Maester Ciarán]

Just a guess, the Yunkish (or Yunkai'i can't remember the proper name) are mostly wiped out, giving Barry (from now on every time I read his name I'm going to think Barry) a chance to get some supplies in. The Volantene arrive and start their seige Dany arrives after taking control of a khalasar smashes them, whilst the Iron Fleet take over the ships. Just a wild guess probably wrong but hey it's all in good fun.

[Dragonstar]

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/81338-twow-spoilers-barristan/#entry4122024

[SeanF]

I believe that much of the Volantene fleet will revolt in favour of Daenerys, under the influence of the Red Priests

[Maester Ciarán]

http://asoiaf.wester...n/#entry4122024

Thanks for the link, it makes waiting for the next book even harder knowing there will be some great battles. Hopefully when the time comes to do the battles on the show they will keep the full splendor of them and not simplify them too much to make it easier to film.

[Mad Monkey]

I'm pretty pleased. When I was reading ADWD the first couple of times, I thought Meereen was hopelessly overmatched without the dragons. The way some of the other characters described it, it sounded as if they were surrounded by an entire hostile continent and were so far outnumbered that they couldn't fight. But it sounds as if the odds are more even than all that, even if Volantis shows up on Yunkai's side.

[tze]

I believe that much of the Volantene fleet will revolt in favour of Daenerys, under the influence of the Red Priests

I agree with this. Even Victarion doesn't think the Iron Fleet can successfully defeat the Volantene fleet, which is why his whole plan was to smash his way through the blockade, grab Dany, and take off before the Volantenes even arrived. Either it'll turn out that the Volantene fleet is much smaller and weaker than Victarion thought (and he's an idiot, granted, but this is basically the only area he has any competence in whatsoever), or there really has to be a slave revolt for there to be anything and anyone left if/when Dany makes it back to Meereen.

And GRRM mentioned something interesting about the history of Braavos in this SSM: http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Interview_in_Barcelona/

As you know, they were slaves who fled from Valyria and they found a place as far away from Valyria that they could get. What basically happened was that a Valyrian fleet, which was rowed by slaves, was taken over by the slaves after they mutined. And they decided to get as far away to the north as they could, sailing through the narrow sea to find a refuge. The founded Braavos and kept the city secret for about a hundred years.

Given how history repeats itself in ASOIAF, I can see a Volantene fleet, rowed by slaves, being taken over by the slaves after they mutiny, just as the Valyrian fleet was once taken over by mutinous slave rowers, with Meereen (a slave-free city) as this "iteration's" version of Braavos (a slave-free city). (Though given the way history tends to be altered when it repeats, the Valyrian slaves' ultimate success in Braavos might actually presage the Volantene slaves' ultimate failure in Meereen.)

[Dragonstar]

Given how history repeats itself in ASOIAF, I can see a Volantene fleet, rowed by slaves, being taken over by the slaves after they mutiny, just as the Valyrian fleet was once taken over by mutinous slave rowers, with Meereen (a slave-free city) as this "iteration's" version of Braavos (a slave-free city). (Though given the way history tends to be altered when it repeats, the Valyrian slaves' ultimate success in Braavos might actually presage the Volantene slaves' ultimate failure in Meereen.)

*Love* this. The old woman in Volantis - Vacarro(?)'s Widow... alludes to the fact that freed slaves in Volantis look to Dany as a symbol of hope and may muster to her. This is how I envisioned it happening as well.

[SeanF]

I'm pretty pleased. When I was reading ADWD the first couple of times, I thought Meereen was hopelessly overmatched without the dragons. The way some of the other characters described it, it sounded as if they were surrounded by an entire hostile continent and were so far outnumbered that they couldn't fight. But it sounds as if the odds are more even than all that, even if Volantis shows up on Yunkai's side.

We have some idea of numbers. Dany has 8,000 Unsullied, less losses when taking Mereen and to the Harpy, plus trainees who've joined the ranks. She has three companies of Freedmen, say 6,000, and 1,000 sellsword cavalry, till Brown Ben defects.

Her enemies have 24,000 infantry, and 5,000 sellswords. The Yunkish joke army, plus contingents from Qarth, Mantarys, and Tolos. At a guess, I'd say 60,000 in total. Plus, the Armada from Volantis.

[Maester Ciarán]

*Love* this. The old woman in Volantis - Vacarro(?)'s Widow... alludes to the fact that freed slaves in Volantis look to Dany as a symbol of hope and may muster to her. This is how I envisioned it happening as well.

Vogarro's Whore/Widow of the Waterfront said something like, "when you find your Queen, give her a message from the slaves of Old Volantis. Tell her we are waiting, tell her to come soon" (I love that line had to read a few times when I first came across it)

So it may allude to a similar thing happening with the slaves revolting.

[Fire Eater]

I agree with this. Even Victarion doesn't think the Iron Fleet can successfully defeat the Volantene fleet, which is why his whole plan was to smash his way through the blockade, grab Dany, and take off before the Volantenes even arrived. Either it'll turn out that the Volantene fleet is much smaller and weaker than Victarion thought (and he's an idiot, granted, but this is basically the only area he has any competence in whatsoever), or there really has to be a slave revolt for there to be anything and anyone left if/when Dany makes it back to Meereen.

And GRRM mentioned something interesting about the history of Braavos in this SSM: http://www.westeros....w_in_Barcelona/

Given how history repeats itself in ASOIAF, I can see a Volantene fleet, rowed by slaves, being taken over by the slaves after they mutiny, just as the Valyrian fleet was once taken over by mutinous slave rowers, with Meereen (a slave-free city) as this "iteration's" version of Braavos (a slave-free city). (Though given the way history tends to be altered when it repeats, the Valyrian slaves' ultimate success in Braavos might actually presage the Volantene slaves' ultimate failure in Meereen.)

The slaves were led by the Moonsingers to Braavos, so Dany, who was referred to as "moon of my life" by Drogo, may lead the Volantene slave soldiers.

[Dragonstar]

Wow, just re-reading those Barristan spoiler chapters give me goosebumps and they're not even the actual chapters, just summaries. Can't WAIT for tWoW.....

Even though I can, and will.

[Nyrhex]

We have some idea of numbers. Dany has 8,000 Unsullied, less losses when taking Mereen and to the Harpy, plus trainees who've joined the ranks. She has three companies of Freedmen, say 6,000, and 1,000 sellsword cavalry, till Brown Ben defects.

Her enemies have 24,000 infantry, and 5,000 sellswords. The Yunkish joke army, plus contingents from Qarth, Mantarys, and Tolos. At a guess, I'd say 60,000 in total. Plus, the Armada from Volantis.

From the spoiler chapters Meereen has 5,000 Unsullied, 200 Dothraki and pitfighters as "shock infantry", and ~500 cavalry of the Storm Crows. Victarion should have somewhere between 3,000-5,000 fighting men. That, including the freedmen and the "Beasts" that are left to guard the walls, is a little over 10,000 if we streach it. New Ghis alone brought 4 legions of 6,000 "Unsullied" (24,000 contracted free men, rather then slave soldiers) and 100 war elephants. Barristan attacks the least important target (slaves on stilts), and Victarion is now engaged with the sellswords (Company of the Cat alone matches him with 3,000 heavy infantry). Though the Second Sons (514) and the Windblown (2,000 including cavalry) are of dubious loyalty, Meereen is still horribly outnumbered, and the real army and fleet are only on thier way (300-500 ships as Victarion says). Barristan's plan was to attack the siege weapons and flank the legions before they can react, but the spoilers say he does'nt do that in the end, so the whole battle now seems alot less certain to be another win for Dany's forces.

[Dragonstar]

Well unless the fleet heading in from Volantis experiences a sla

From the spoiler chapters Meereen has 5,000 Unsullied, 200 Dothraki and pitfighters as "shock infantry", and ~500 cavalry of the Storm Crows. Victarion should have somewhere between 3,000-5,000 fighting men. That, including the freedmen and the "Beasts" that are left to guard the walls, is a little over 10,000 if we streach it. New Ghis alone brought 4 legions of 6,000 "Unsullied" (24,000 contracted free men, rather then slave soldiers) and 100 war elephants. Barristan attacks the least important target (slaves on stilts), and Victarion is now engaged with the sellswords (Company of the Cat alone matches him with 3,000 heavy infantry). Though the Second Sons (514) and the Windblown (2,000 including cavalry) are of dubious loyalty, Meereen is still horribly outnumbered, and the real army and fleet are only on thier way (300-500 ships as Victarion says). Barristan's plan was to attack the siege weapons and flank the legions before they can react, but the spoilers say he does'nt do that in the end, so the whole battle now seems alot less certain to be another win for Dany's forces.

Jhaqo's Khalasar is 20,000 strong if Dany can win them and turn them towards Merreen

[The Real Targaryen]

I think that with the defecting of the Windblown and the Second Sons, as well as the unexpected arrival of Ironborn, the larger numbers of New Ghis and Yunkai will mean nothing. This early win will secure Dany Slaver's Bay. As was said before, history repeats itself, and the first dragonlords of Valyria defeated the original Ghiscari Empire in 5 wars. The Battle of Meereen will be that fifth battle.

Peace will begin for Meereen and a new regime will rise a la Barristan's council. The massive Volantene navy will show up shortly after all of this. The 50,000 or so slave soldiers they have (500 ships and 100 soldiers per ship) will begin a start a new battle that will end quickly as the Ironborn will outmaneuver them in the Skahazadhan with their tiny longships versus the larger ships. Similar to the Spanish Armada. However, they will attempt to attack the city again, until Dany rides in with her khalasar just in time to save the city and all the slave soldiers mutinize.

[The Duke]

The Yunkish alliance numbers are lower than that though since the pale mare has been riding pretty hard through their camps.

[Light a wight tonight]

Jhaqo's Khalasar is 20,000 strong if Dany can win them and turn them towards Merreen

It would be good to see how Dothraki fare against some real soldiers instead of Lamb People. They could mop up the Yunkai'i freak show, but the better sellsword companies and other professionals would be a better test.

[ejhawman]

I see the battle as occurring in at least two stages. Stage 1 was what we saw with the sample chapter, Ser Barristan and Victarion break up the Yunkish alliance and drive them back from the city.

In between phases, Barristan tries to regain control of Meereen from the rampant Sons of the Harpy while the Yunkish regroup some distance from the city. The Volantenes probably arrive after a few days.

Victarion is said to come up with a plan to turn a deal of the Volantene fleet. This may be phase 2 of the battle. The second ground offensive by the Yunkish may be either at this time or in a separate Phase 3 some days later.

Ultimately, when Dany arrives professing a desire to take her leave of Essos, the battle may draw to a close without a military decision - the Yunkish alliance's objective of ejecting Dany will have been achieved.

[Mad Monkey]

We have some idea of numbers. Dany has 8,000 Unsullied, less losses when taking Mereen and to the Harpy, plus trainees who've joined the ranks. She has three companies of Freedmen, say 6,000, and 1,000 sellsword cavalry, till Brown Ben defects.

Her enemies have 24,000 infantry, and 5,000 sellswords. The Yunkish joke army, plus contingents from Qarth, Mantarys, and Tolos. At a guess, I'd say 60,000 in total. Plus, the Armada from Volantis.

Oh goddamnit.

Jhaqo's Khalasar is 20,000 strong if Dany can win them and turn them towards Merreen

I think that with the defecting of the Windblown and the Second Sons, as well as the unexpected arrival of Ironborn, the larger numbers of New Ghis and Yunkai will mean nothing. This early win will secure Dany Slaver's Bay. As was said before, history repeats itself, and the first dragonlords of Valyria defeated the original Ghiscari Empire in 5 wars. The Battle of Meereen will be that fifth battle.

Yay!

Ultimately, when Dany arrives professing a desire to take her leave of Essos, the battle may draw to a close without a military decision - the Yunkish alliance's objective of ejecting Dany will have been achieved.

They will also want to remove any Great Master who allied with Dany and the anti-slavery system, right?