Is Aegon VI (the possible fake one) overrated?

[juanml82]

This forum discusses from time to time how Aegon will attack King's Landing, how Tarly will declare for him, how the Tyrells are screwed, etc.

And while GRRM quote about several more people sitting in the Iron Throne points in that direction, aren't Aegon and the GC overrated?

Let's look at what they have:

5,000 men accounted for with another 5,000 landing somewhere, or lost to storms.

They got a bunch of undefended castles in the Stormlands and (TWOW Spoilers)

they got the barely defended Storms End

The castilian of Harrenhall might declare for him because of his long lost Targaryen love

Dorne *might* declare for him, or not, and attack the Reach from the south

The Lannisters are deeply involved in the Riverlands, the Freys are starting to stretch themselves thin and the other River Lords are of uncertain loyalty

The Reach is under attack from the Ironborn.

However:

The GC captains will want lands. Most of them are likely to be occupied by somebody else. That cuts local support.

It would make for a boring storyline if Dorne doesn't declare for Aegon, but even if they do, they are one of the less populated areas in Westeros

The Iron Fleet is in Mereen. That means the Redwyne Fleet is likely to defeat the Ironborn at sea and, once that happens, what continues is a long mop up operation, which is likely to tie up 20-30k of Reach swords at the most

Unless something very stupid happens, Margery is likely to be acquitted, releasing the Reach army at KG

The Reach armies would still vastly outnumber the Golden Company and even Dorne. Once they deal with the Ironborn, the full strength of the Reach can be sent to defeat them.

The Iron Fleet, if it's coming back, might be back by the time the Redwyne Fleet is ready to attack Dorne from the sea, though.

[Sansa_Stark]

The Ironborn shouldn't be underestimated imo. Iron Fleet or no, they have made House Redwyne their inferiors before.

[Facebookless Man]

He's not taking the IT without forming alliances, and there aren't many lords likely to be interested besides Martell. Maybe if the Royces take control in the Vale, or if the Tyrells can be talked into turning their cloak again...long shot though.

My guess is the Wot5K isn't done destroying the westerosi houses yet, and even the Tyrells will eventually be weak enough to beat with the Dornish army.

[jenerationx]

I think it's more a HOPE that he'll make some sort of difference, thereby making his sudden reappearance worthwhile. If he does nothing, such a random thing out of nowhere in the fifth book of the series would be pointless and frustrating.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

During the next one or two months, most of the lost forces of the Golden Company will find their way to the main force. It may have already happened during the spoiler chapters. The Tyrells won't be able to give a battle for the same time due to marching distances.

Furthermore, a couple of Stormlords are likely to align with the Golden Company. Not many, but some pissed off by the Lannisters or friends with JonCon.

Since you can't fit more than ~20,000 men in a united army for an extended period of time barring a couple non-existant advantages, the Roses wil face Aegon at (at least) a slight disadvantage. The Golden Company is all around quality above quantity and punches way above it's numerical weight, allowing this.

So, the first major battle is likely to go to the Golden Company, allowing them to build up momentum. In the long run, they lack the manpower to really claim land, operate in different theaters at the same time as well as replenish losses.

They are limited to a quick march on either KL or Oldtown (not both), beating any army send against them in a field battle, but not engaging in the small war like the Lannisters utilised in the Riverlands.

If Dorne joins them, they get a second prong and go for both cities at once.

These two cities they can threaten and maybe even take. But if the Reach stays mostly with the Tyrells or the Vale assists them, that's the limit. Afterwards, they'll lose momentum and are neck-deep in trouble.

[Drexyon7]

1. Saying GC needs lands is a little stretch with the whole "some contracts are writ in blood" line.

2. Without Iron fleet the Iron born still have more longships since significant amount of the Redwynes fleet is merchant ships. So dont count on an Iron born "mop up"

3. Margs getting aquitted is in no way "likely" with all the new plot developments (Varys comeback, Tyene, lunatic HS ect.)

[Comnenus]

Also don't forget that the Reach might not present such a united front. There are theories about possible betrayals from within the Tyrells bannermen. Admittedly, their is little to go on beyond one of the Golden Company's leaders (Lysono Maar?) saying that the Tyrells might not find their power in the Reach to be so secure and that they still have friends in the Reach. It's been noted before I believe that the Reach was staunch for the Targaryens. Something to consider even if it is mostly speculation right now.

[Mark Antony]

I think he is a interesting topic of conversation because of the mystery around him but I could really care less if he is real or fake. Red or black. I hope Daenerys kills the fuck out of him before we find out.

[Dicer]

I think he's going to become inconsequential real quick in the next book after Drogon roasts him on low flame and has him for dinner.

[Crowford]

It's not so much a question of "could he win an all-out war against Westeros", but rather of "does he even have to?".

Dorne is going to declare for him. Doran knows that it might be his only chance. Sure, it would be nice hedging his bets on Quentyn succeeding in marrying Dany, but if a Targaryan knocks on his door he is going to take him, even if he doesn't marry Arianne. What else is he going to do? If he just sits this out and Aegon wins, Aegon will see Dorne as indecisive cowards, and all of Doran's plans for greater independence for Dorne can be considered buried. If Aegon loses, their best chance to wiggle free from the Baratheon/Lannister Iron Throne are gone. And don't forget that Aegon is Elia's son. Doran would never withhold support from his nephew.

And the Reach might be able to defeat Aegon militarily, but do they want that? The Tyrells now have great influence at King's Landing and are probably not declaring for Aegon. But their bannermen, especially influential houses like Hightower? They stand to gain a lot.

[Sansa_Stark]

Also don't forget that the Reach might not present such a united front. There are theories about possible betrayals from within the Tyrells bannermen. Admittedly, their is little to go on beyond one of the Golden Company's leaders (Lysono Maar?) saying that the Tyrells might not find their power in the Reach to be so secure and that they still have friends in the Reach. It's been noted before I believe that the Reach was staunch for the Targaryens. Something to consider even if it is mostly speculation right now.

Lets not forget that Reach bannerman have been known to rebel against the Tyrells when opportunity arises.

I mean, all lords have unruly bannerman, but the Tyrells have the least control over their bannerman at least on a historical(blackfyre) level.

[Jon of the Dead]

I think he is a interesting topic of conversation because of the mystery around him but I could really care less if he is real or fake. Red or black. I hope Daenerys kills the fuck out of him before we find out.

I think he's going to become inconsequential real quick in the next book after Drogon roasts him on low flame and has him for dinner.

Ugh, on the one hand I want this to happen because he cannot die soon enough for me, but this would mean all the time spent on his boring character would be a waste of time

[Drexyon7]

I know dissent exists in the Reach but I just don't get it. If I was was a bannerman for the Tyrells I would be extremely happy considering my faction was one the least bloodied from the WoFK

[Comnenus]

I think you are overlooking how these societies function. The peasants might be very happy that the Tyrells have kept the Reach relatively unbloodied. But what is in question is how happy there bannermen are. And bannermen don't necessarily care how many people are dying. They care about winning prestige and expanding their lands. And the Tyrells have not perhaps been careful about seeing to this. We can't widen this to all the lords but consider how Tarly has been treated. Their best general has been slighted, has had his victories stolen by Mace Tyrell, and then lands that rightfully should fall to him through inheritance taken and in an act of self aggrandisement given to Garlan.

[Mark Antony]

Doesn't Jon Con say he still has friends in the reach?

[The Frost Wolf]

There's an IMPORTANT factor people aren't considering:

- Lady Nym and Tyene will be IN King's Landing.

Now I'm guessing they'll take a retinue with them of perhaps a few hundred men, this could prove crucial if the GC march on KL since they'll have people on the inside who can open the gates. Now I'm just assuming its the GC by itself threatening KL but with the Dornish alliance. So if KL seals its gates the GC can just wait for Dorne to arrive then it's forces will be double the size. And if Tarly does declare for them, that's even more men surrounding KL.

However, my guess is that Mace Tyrell will march straight after Maegary is released (which should happen pretty fast) then the GC will repel them or beat them, taking captives in the process, then Dorne will link up with them for the assault on KL.

[mindchap]

Another thing to factor in with the GC is the fact that some if not most of these guys have been in Essos for a long time. Even if they did and do have friends in Westeros, alliances can change fairly easy in this world. And the only chance they really have is with alliances so unless there are some fiercely loyal friends that we just haven't met yet I think Aegon(fake or not) will have a hard time unless, as someone else mentioned I think, one of the bigger armies are looking to change alliances.

[FC_Lymond]

The even more important factor is Varys in KL. He can confuse any defense of the city easily. Aegon marching in from the south, Varys will tell them they need to send troops north. You think he's incapable of that?

The Stormlands have some pretty large houses that will obviously go over to him - the Cafferens, the Fells, the Grandisons, and the Lonmouths. There are plenty of houses known for their targ support in the Crownlands too. He can easily get another 10k from these smaller houses.

[Spartan64Destiny]

I did not think much of Young Griff (Aegon) when he kicked the cavase or chess table in the air when Tyrion was trying to school the lad on the finer points of becoming a leader along with earning Daenerys's love and respect. He seemed like a spoiled sheltered brat to me during that moment.

[Erkan12]

Yes there is no success imho.(yet) Since they are totally surprise factor.

Their enemies didn't even know they exist. This sure is a great advantage but they just begin with weak castles.