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The Ides of Marsh


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#1 Fire Eater

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:38 AM

This is what I think happened leading up to Jon's final chapter.

 

The Wall is yours, Lord Snow

 

The Wall is yours, Lord Bowen.

 

The former line is what Donal Noye tells Jon, and Jon later becomes LC. I think the latter line Jon gives to Bowen foreshadows Bowen becoming the 999th LC.

 

That was quick.

 

"Please sit," he [Jon] said. "May I offer you food or drink?"

"We broke our fast in the commons," Marsh said.

 

Interesting that Marsh refuses to break bread or eat with Jon, this can be an early sign of him separating himself from Jon. Jon himself thought that how Marsh and Co, recieved the news of Val was quick. My guess is that Mully is spying on Jon, and reporting to Bowen as Mully is a steward, he was present when Jon sent Val off and finally in Jon's last POV, Mully states that Ghost tried to take a bite out of him akin to Grey Wind receiving the Freys and Rolph Spicer with hostility.  

 

Bowen Marsh did not appear surprised."You mean to let him pass." His voice suggested he had known all along.

 

This passage reveals that Bowen had known Jon's plan all along, and he has been thinking, and likely planning about what to do regarding Jon's actions. Marsh has been said to be good at counting things so he can be calculating. Also, if we are to draw a parallel to Jon and Julius Caesar, Caesar's assassination wasn't spontaneous but a planned action. I think Marsh had been planning Jon's assassination for quite some time after he knew what Jon was going to do, and couldn't be swayed.

 

I was eating bean-and-bacon soup whilst Bowen Marsh was going on about the high ground. The Old Pomegranate thought I was spying on him and announced that he would not suffer murderers listening to their councils. 

 

Marsh managed to think that Rattleshirt (Mance) was spying on him, in that case the question is, who does Bowen think Mance would be spying for? Also why would he be concerned with people listening in on his conversations with his group if it is just about things like the high ground, which sounds innocent enough? Marsh and Co were likely plotting, and discussing plans for what would happen in Jon's last chapter.

 

Bowen had Wick Whittlestick, Left Hand Lew and Alf of Runnymudd.

 

Alf of Runnymudd was hinted at having a relationship with Garth akin to Renly and Loras given his reaction upon hearing Garth's death. Bowen likely had been picking up allies, and Alf may have placed some of the blame for Garth's death on Jon for sending him out ranging.

 

When Jon said he was going to meet the Boltons in battle, that is when Marsh and Co. knew they had act fast, and Wun Wun killing Ser Partek was the opportunity for Marsh to put the plan into gear. Marsh had one of his men dispatched to Queen Selyse saying that the wildlings had betrayed the pact made with Jon, and were attacking. I imagine it would be something to the tune of "the treachery of wildlings is well-known". The screams Jon heard behind him were Queen's men present so as to avoid giving any contradictory stories to Selyse and Axell Florent.

 

When the queen's men come to investigate the first thing they will see is Wun Wun with Ser Partek's mutilated corpse, and they will next see wildlings fighting members of the NW (Marsh and Co.) with Jon lying on the ground, apparently dead with a few queen's men. The queen's men will immediately believe the story given them, and might launch an attack on the wildlings already in the Shieldhall with the black brothers not present at the Wun Wun incident. Marsh will have Selyse name him LC of the NW, and letters will likely be sent out asking for people to aid the NW against wildlings on the south side of the Wall. His plan is to get rid of Jon, and then get rid of the wildlings on his side of the Wall and seal the gates while he's at it.


Edited by Fire Eater, 18 October 2013 - 11:55 AM.


#2 First of My Name

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:01 AM

I agree with everything you say, so there's not much else for me to say.



#3 Ygrain

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:51 AM

Ugh... a chillingly good job. I so wish that his treachery bites Bowen in his ass ASAP but it does seem that we are in for a slaughter at Castle Black and it doesn't look good for the Wildlings.

 

However, if Bowen Marsh becomes 999th LC, it means that Jon is really "kicked" out of NW for good as there is no way he can serve under Bowen.



#4 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:54 AM

For someone who is all about neutrality of the NW, BM sure is seeing kissing the IT's a$$ a lot. Now he would take Selyse's "Yes, you may be LC." without a fair election? Even if he's against Stannis (well, now Selyse) being at the Wall? (There's no way the entire NW can hold an election now, right?)

 

I get that line is likely to indicate BM will be LC, but to me his "For the watch." means for his and his alone view of the Watch. He'd be the perfect idiot LC for it, as well. Those gates Jon tried to keep open will be filled with rubble now, for sure, but perhaps no more Wildlings were going to make it to the Wall. If the Others notice they are being led past the Wall they might be upping their game as well. Can't have their soldiers be evacuated by those pesky crows!

 

And as someone put it yesterday or so: did the Hardhome expedition fail already, or does it fail because Jon is now temporarily out of order?

 

I guess you'll follow that thought with Jon being KitN after Stannis might play his 'I'll pretend I'm dead' thing? :P

 

I wonder what his friends will think of all this, if he still had them. And as was pointed out: both sides of Castle Black were of the Wildlings, so there could be more trouble, still. (Perhaps Val will get a few of the Wildlings together to take him to Morna, if they already left the Wall.)

 

PS: What is Mel going to do? Will Selyse do things without Mel's approval? Mel should be smart enough to realise that Jon was their best option, not IT kiss-a$$ BM.


Edited by Ghost's Shadow, 18 October 2013 - 04:56 AM.


#5 SeanF

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 05:18 AM

I suspect Melisandre would discover the truth of what took place quite quickly, and she'd be furious with Bowen Marsh.  And, the Queen's Men would do her bidding.

 

I think we might well see Bowen Marsh becoming an offering to R'hllor before too long.



#6 Ygrain

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 05:47 AM

I think we might well see Bowen Marsh becoming an offering to R'hllor before too long.

I'm making my popcorn ready for that :D



#7 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 05:50 AM

Oh Ygrain. :cheers:

 

If there's anything Mel can do to gain a bit of my approval, it might be that. :lol:



#8 Arya kiddin'

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 05:52 AM

snip

 

Very agreeable. :)

 

I suspect Melisandre would discover the truth of what took place quite quickly, and she'd be furious with Bowen Marsh.  And, the Queen's Men would do her bidding.

 

I think we might well see Bowen Marsh becoming an offering to R'hllor before too long.

 

Looking forward to it. :commie:



#9 Balaurderaa

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 06:16 AM

Ugh... a chillingly good job. I so wish that his treachery bites Bowen in his ass ASAP but it does seem that we are in for a slaughter at Castle Black and it doesn't look good for the Wildlings.

 

However, if Bowen Marsh becomes 999th LC, it means that Jon is really "kicked" out of NW for good as there is no way he can serve under Bowen.

 

This brings up a good point. Is there any protocol for a Lord Commander losing his position without dying and then continuing in the NW?



#10 Ygrain

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 06:45 AM

Oh Ygrain. :cheers:

 

If there's anything Mel can do to gain a bit of my approval, it might be that. :lol:

Oh yes, I can be meeeeeean!

 

 

This brings up a good point. Is there any protocol for a Lord Commander losing his position without dying and then continuing in the NW?

I am not aware of any precedent, the bad ones (Night King) definitely do not continue. 

Hm... Night King and his pale blue-eyed woman resided at Nightfort. I would not be surprised if Jon and his pale blue-eyed woman (Val) or pale red-eyed (Mel) ended up over there, as well.



#11 Gar Weg Wun Sygerrik

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:00 AM

No warging? Inconceivable!

#12 Nothing

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:07 AM

I'm making my popcorn ready for that :D

:rofl:



#13 Balaurderaa

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:49 AM

 

 

I am not aware of any precedent, the bad ones (Night King) definitely do not continue. 

Hm... Night King and his pale blue-eyed woman resided at Nightfort. I would not be surprised if Jon and his pale blue-eyed woman (Val) or pale red-eyed (Mel) ended up over there, as well.

 

I was thinking about what they might do if the LC gets too old or ill to fulfil his duties properly (they don't seem to have the concept of term limits)



#14 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:50 AM

 

This brings up a good point. Is there any protocol for a Lord Commander losing his position without dying and then continuing in the NW?

 

If there was any kind of protocol to relieve an LC from his position then they would have done that, not stab him in the back the coward's way.

 

Was the literal backstabber the boyfriend then? So the NW has changed into a place where you're allowed to stab the LC down when he sends out your boyfriend and he doesn't make it back alive? Geesh, it's even worse than before.



#15 SeanF

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:14 AM

Oh Ygrain. :cheers:

 

If there's anything Mel can do to gain a bit of my approval, it might be that. :lol:

 

"Edd, fetch me a stake."



#16 yolkboy

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:24 AM

"As they passed, each warrior stripped off his treasures... ... all yielded up and noted down by Bowen Marsh. One man surrendered a shirt of silver scales that had surely been made for some great lord. Another produced a broken sword with three sapphires in the hilt"

 

Here's Jon letting in some wildlings. This might be the moment Bowen decided to kill Jon. The silver scales invoke a sense of justice/judgement that Bowen felt - he was judging Jon and felt he should be sentenced to death. Then you have the sword which represents the NW, the sword in the darkness. Notice it's broken, alluding to Bowen's perception Jon broke his vows. Finally you have sapphires in the hilt of that sword, sapphires are used to denote secrets - so this might be 3 conspirators within the Night's Watch plotting against Jon. Wick, Bowen and maybe Alliser.


Edited by yolkboy, 18 October 2013 - 10:30 AM.


#17 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:36 AM

Someone came up with the nifty idea that that was the sword (perhaps other equipment as well?) of the Royce of the prologue.



#18 Northbound

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:45 AM

Fire Eater, nice work as usual. Always a pleasure reading your work and efforts on here. I must confess; after my third time through the book, I still didn't pick up on the coldness of Marsh at Jon's table. Mully spying on Jon makes perfect sense to me. Especially with Ghost's reaction to him...just like Greywind toward the Freys. Mel did tell Jon, to keep his wolf close. It's very interesting that he did not keep Ghost by his side 24/7.  Mel telling Jon that, reminds of Cat and Robb's conversation regarding Greywind. Robb didn't see that warning as well. 

 

I really hope that Mel is able to see through the chaos occuring at CB, quickly, Otherwise, I feel a great many number of Wildlings may be killed. But, I don't think that will happen. This is GRRM, we are talking about. There will be a lot of blood flowing.



#19 Ygrain

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 09:13 AM

 

I was thinking about what they might do if the LC gets too old or ill to fulfil his duties properly (they don't seem to have the concept of term limits)

I think we might have a parallel in the Archmaester Walgrave (?) - too senile to do the duty but remains in the office while orders are issued by someone else.

 

 

"Edd, fetch me a stake."

Yes!

 

"As they passed, each warrior stripped off his treasures... ... all yielded up and noted down by Bowen Marsh. One man surrendered a shirt of silver scales that had surely been made for some great lord. Another produced a broken sword with three sapphires in the hilt"

 

Here's Jon letting in some wildlings. This might be the moment Bowen decided to kill Jon. Ther silver scales invoke a sense of justice that Bowen felt - he was judging Jon and felt he should be sentenced to death. Then you have the sword which represents the NW, the sword in the darkness. Notice it's broken, alluding to Bowen's perception Jon broke his vows. Finally you have sapphires in the hilt of that sword, sapphires are used to denote secrets - so this might be 3 conspirators within the Night's Watch plotting against Jon. Wick, Bowen and maybe someone we don't know.

Well, I guess we know who Jon's No1 fan in the Nightwatch might be...

 

Ad the title of the thread - do you think that GRRM knows about the wordplay? Or that he even chose Bowen's surname for this very reason? :-)



#20 Red.Queen

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 10:01 AM


Ad the title of the thread - do you think that GRRM knows about the wordplay? Or that he even chose Bowen's surname for this very reason? :-)

I know, right? I had never thought of the wordplay, but it wouldn't surprise me if GRRM had done it on purpose! :)