Stannis relying so heavily on the Florents lost him the Blackwater.

[Bedwyck]

Making Lord Alester his hand, putting Ser Imry in charge of his navy were forseeably bad decisions. I know they are his wife's family, but that did not stop them from declaring for Renly and most importantly they have no reported history of military success. They were the most powerful house among his supporters at the time so rewarding them is fine, but risking your kingship on their military competency (for which there is no record of them having) is folly. He should have just promised them the Reach. This should have been more than enough to appease them for the time being. If he must name Lord Alester hand then he should have at least waited until he took Kings Landing to do so. Lord Alester as hand likely campaigned for making his son Ser Imry as head of the navy and for whatever reason Stannis decided to oblige. We all know how that turned out in the Blackwater Rush. The green boy fell straight into Tyrion's trap. Stannis deserved to lose for giving commanding positions to people who were in no way qualified.

[TheBlackFlame]

I think he lost the Blackwater the moment he sailed for King's Landing against Mel's advice. I don't put much faith in her "flames" as we know she has been wrong about plenty but she wasn't wrong about that. She told him if he attacked King's Landing he would lose. Whether it was the flames or just a case of she could just see what he and Davos could not is hard to say. Whatever the case she warned him and he didn't listen. I personally think that the battle was lost before it was even fought and nothing was going to change that. Was the inevitable loss due to inept lieutenants, the Gods or just plain bad luck who can say but it was a very ill-advised assault.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

You are being unfair. It was not Ser Imry's fault, what he did was good and tactically sound. Don't be fooled by Davos' prejudices and lack of knowledge.

You may blame Stannis for not taking the winch tower, but you can't blame Ser Imry for anything. In the same vein, you can't blame Lord Alester for anything up until after the Blackwater.

[HexMachina]

There was no predicting the Wildfire being used as it was. As far as anyone knew, there would not have been sufficient to make a significant difference to the battle. And even with the Wildfire and winch chain, Stannis was on the verge of winning the battle...until the Tyrell-Lannister army showed up. There was no way of predicting that. And to be fair to the Florents, they are one of the few who stuck with Stannis after the Blackwater when they could have bent the knee to Joffrey.

The reliance on the Florents certainly can't be blamed for the Blackwater

[TheBlackFlame]

There was no predicting the Wildfire being used as it was. As far as anyone knew, there would not have been sufficient to make a significant difference to the battle. And even with the Wildfire and winch chain, Stannis was on the verge of winning the battle...until the Tyrell-Lannister army showed up. There was no way of predicting that. And to be fair to the Florents, they are one of the few who stuck with Stannis after the Blackwater when they could have bent the knee to Joffrey.

The reliance on the Florents certainly can't be blamed for the Blackwater

I hate to sound like a broken record but yes there was one person who could see it coming. Mel, maybe she didn't necessarily know the whys or hows but she tried to warn Stannis the assault on King's Landing would be disastrous.

[James Arryn]

Twice Stannis has been trapped engaging in an attack on a fortified position with enemies in the field. Not doing that is a military axiom, like 'look north ways before crossing the street'.

Doing that once is a huge military blunder. Doing it twice is kind of ridiculous.

That's much worse than any specific mistake he makes at the BW, which IMO he conducted fairly well.

[James Arryn]

I hate to sound like a broken record but yes there was one person who could see it coming. Mel, maybe she didn't necessarily know the whys or hows but she tried to warn Stannis the assault on King's Landing would be disastrous.

The Mel factor is an odd one.

On the one hand, relying on her...an untested weapon giving an unspecified result...to get trapped in an impossible situation at Storm's End was almost insanely poor military judgment.

But, once she did come through and thus is 'tested' and proven as a weapon, to disregard her at the BW is almost as odd, though at least more defensible.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Stannis' defeat can be attributed to the largest army in Westeros turning up out of nowhere at the last minute. You can't blame Imry for losing most of the fleet; scouts wouldn't have saved him.

[HexMachina]

I hate to sound like a broken record but yes there was one person who could see it coming. Mel, maybe she didn't necessarily know the whys or hows but she tried to warn Stannis the assault on King's Landing would be disastrous.

Does she? I don't remember that, all I recall is her telling him to go to Storm's End first and he would gain an army, but if he attacked King's Landing Renly would defeat him. She misinterpreted these as alternative futures but they were actually different points in the same future.

I don't believe she tried to convince him.not to attack Kings Landing, because he was almost ready to take her into battle until his captains told him that men would call it her victory.

I accept I could be wrong though, but I'm currently on a reread and have just read the Blackwater. Do you have the quote that makes you think she told him not to attack?

[Guard of the Rainking]

It came down to him not getting to King's Landing fast enough and not concerning himself with Tywin and the Tyrells.

[TheBlackFlame]

The Mel factor is an odd one.

On the one hand, relying on her...an untested weapon giving an unspecified result...to get trapped in an impossible situation at Storm's End was almost insanely poor military judgment.

But, once she did come through and thus is 'tested' and proven as a weapon, to disregard her at the BW is almost as odd, though at least more defensible.

Honestly in the Mannis's position I would have ignored her too. But I would have been wrong. Things on paper looked really kush but like I said either by the flames or just seeing a different perspective she knew it would go south. Also don't forget that at that point at least she had yet to steer Stannis wrong. She told him she could deliver the reach and she did.

[juanml82]

There was no predicting the Wildfire being used as it was. As far as anyone knew, there would not have been sufficient to make a significant difference to the battle. And even with the Wildfire and winch chain, Stannis was on the verge of winning the battle...until the Tyrell-Lannister army showed up. There was no way of predicting that. And to be fair to the Florents, they are one of the few who stuck with Stannis after the Blackwater when they could have bent the knee to Joffrey.

The reliance on the Florents certainly can't be blamed for the Blackwater

Yes, he can predict the Tyrell-Lannister army would show up. That what spies (of which Stannis used none) and scouts (of which Stannis lost all) are used for.

He didn't need to loose his fleet either - the fleet was there to help his army cross the Blackwater and he doesn't need to cross while in range of KL's walls.

[TheBlackFlame]

Does she? I don't remember that, all I recall is her telling him to go to Storm's End first and he would gain an army, but if he attacked King's Landing Renly would defeat him. She misinterpreted these as alternative futures but they were actually different points in the same future.

I don't believe she tried to convince him.not to attack Kings Landing, because he was almost ready to take her into battle until his captains told him that men would call it her victory.

I accept I could be wrong though, but I'm currently on a reread and have just read the Blackwater. Do you have the quote that makes you think she told him not to attack?

I think you might have tripped yourself up with your own cleverness here. Its like I said whatever she knew or didn't know she advised him not to attack King's Landing when he did. Was it the Red God? Better lateral thinking skills? Or just a lucky guess? Who's to say. It really doesn't matter now does it? She was still right she said the attack on King's Landing would be a disaster and it was thats all that matters. Granted I'm one who is very skeptical of Mel's supposed pre-cognitive abilities but give credit where its due she called it. As far as the other thing about it being her victory, I'm honestly not entirely sure. You could be right on that one all I really remember is he went against her advice. Its been a while since I read a Storm of Swords. Could you be thinking of the show? Because in the show she is all hot and bothered to attack King's Landing with them and Stannis decides to leave her on Dragonstone. I remember watching that and being like "what the fuck?" It was like in the first season when they made it Catelyn warning Ned about the dangers of King's Landing and Cressen pushing him to go when in the books it was the other way around.

[James Arryn]

Honestly in the Mannis's position I would have ignored her too. But I would have been wrong. Things on paper looked really kush but like I said either by the flames or just seeing a different perspective she knew it would go south. Also don't forget that at that point at least she had yet to steer Stannis wrong. She told him she could deliver the reach and she did.

Yeah, I'm not sure if I was clear in my post. My point was it was odd to trust an untested Mel with such dire consequences if she's wrong (SE) and almost as odd to turn around and not trust her once she was tested (BW) though IMO the latter makes much more martial sense.

[HannibalStark]

I think he lost the Blackwater the moment he sailed for King's Landing against Mel's advice. I don't put much faith in her "flames" as we know she has been wrong about plenty but she wasn't wrong about that. She told him if he attacked King's Landing he would lose. Whether it was the flames or just a case of she could just see what he and Davos could not is hard to say. Whatever the case she warned him and he didn't listen. I personally think that the battle was lost before it was even fought and nothing was going to change that. Was the inevitable loss due to inept lieutenants, the Gods or just plain bad luck who can say but it was a very ill-advised assault.

while Tyrion decapitated the Stannis Navy....he was still very much in the fight until the Lannister AND Tyrell army came in to spank him. (Tywin was only there because of the multiple time they (he) tried to cross one of the rivers west I think (but it was only after Tywin was pushed back multiple times that he decides to flee south to KL...but if I remember Tywin was suppose to be allowed to cross the river falling into Robb's trap if I am not mistaken)

So Tywin who had refused to bring his army to KL despite Cersei's whining decides to after accidentally not falling into Robb's trap (because of Edumure I believe?)

The Tyrell's only join forces withe the Lannisters because ShadowStannis kills Renly.

while the killing of Renly was meant to win him an army it was in the end one of the reasons he was defeated...

while Tyrion delayed them on the Blackwater and lead another push to hold Stannis back, I was pretty sure Stannis was knocking pretty hard at the Gates of KL and was damn near penetration had Lion and Flowers not crept up on him from behind (who were only there due to random other things happening or not happening as they were suppose to)

[Bedwyck]

Yes, he can predict the Tyrell-Lannister army would show up. That what spies (of which Stannis used none) and scouts (of which Stannis lost all) are used for.

He didn't need to loose his fleet either - the fleet was there to help his army cross the Blackwater and he doesn't need to cross while in range of KL's walls.

This. Stannis should have seen the Tyrells were seriously considering backing someone else whenever they refused to support him. They had already proven themselves ambitious. The Lannisters with all of their wealth, power, current position on the Throne, and Tywin's fearful reputation are by far the most compelling allies for them. Certainly way more appealing to them than either Robb or Balon (neither of which were even trying to sit the Iron Throne). Did Stannis really think the Tyrells were going to just sit idly by and watch while the Florents become royal to win the Reach away from them? Did he also really think that Tywin would just sit and watch while he took Kings Landing and overthrew his family? Both of these assumptions are laughable. He may not have been able to predict the magnitude of success the wildfire would have against them, but he should have readied himself for this alliance. He should have been ready to take on the full force of gold cloaks, Tywin's army, and the Tyrells. This means you appoint worthy battle commanders, not green boys overzealous for glory.

[Bryden Tully]

Yes, he can predict the Tyrell-Lannister army would show up. That what spies (of which Stannis used none) and scouts (of which Stannis lost all) are used for.

He didn't need to loose his fleet either - the fleet was there to help his army cross the Blackwater and he doesn't need to cross while in range of KL's walls.

Spies aren't simply a case of acquriing them from the local tavern-you need someone with good contacts/skills to actually manage a network. It's a very diffcuilt business-plus the whole point of a Lannister-Tyrell Aliiance is that the spies probably wouldn't of been able to contact Stannis in time considering that it seems to of been done in about 5 days under LF. I mean if Stannis found out they'd got an alliance I'd reckon he'd try and get the city before they could join together.

To be honest Stannis had to make a move on KL-if he waited then he simply would of been crushed in the field. Even if he knew of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance there's fuck all Stannis could do

[TheBlackFlame]

while Tyrion decapitated the Stannis Navy....he was still very much in the fight until the Lannister AND Tyrell army came in to spank him. (Tywin was only there because of the multiple time they (he) tried to cross one of the rivers west I think (but it was only after Tywin was pushed back multiple times that he decides to flee south to KL...but if I remember Tywin was suppose to be allowed to cross the river falling into Robb's trap if I am not mistaken)

So Tywin who had refused to bring his army to KL despite Cersei's whining decides to after accidentally not falling into Robb's trap (because of Edumure I believe?)

The Tyrell's only join forces withe the Lannisters because ShadowStannis kills Renly.

while the killing of Renly was meant to win him an army it was in the end one of the reasons he was defeated...

while Tyrion delayed them on the Blackwater and lead another push to hold Stannis back, I was pretty sure Stannis was knocking pretty hard at the Gates of KL and was damn near penetration had Lion and Flowers not crept up on him from behind (who were only there due to random other things happening or not happening as they were suppose to)

You are correct on every point my friend. Demonstrably. However its like I said whatever her reasons for warning him and what ever reasons he was defeated are irrelevant. The only pertinent fact as far as I'm concerned is that she was right and he wouldn't listen.

[HannibalStark]

You are correct on every point my friend. Demonstrably. However its like I said whatever her reasons for warning him and what ever reasons he was defeated are irrelevant. The only pertinent fact as far as I'm concerned is that she was right and he wouldn't listen.

whether Mel set it up herself to push Stannis into her clutches or she saw it coming (via flames or Ravens)....yes Mel warned Stannis not to go (without her I thought though, but not, NOT to go at all) but yes, Mel warned him regardless.... but it wasn't the Florents or whom who chose to lead that cost him the battle, but rather a series of other events all coming together.

[James Arryn]

Why do people think KL is like the win button?

If you take KL with significant forces in the field against you, it can just as easily be an albatross. You now have to protect and feed it, which take huge resources, and you STILL have armies to fight.

RR being over after KL wasn't because of KL, but because it was preceded by the Trident. If the Trident is not fought, and Rhaegar, his army and the Tyrells are still in the field, the war isn't over.

It's worth noting that London changed hands endless times during the Wars of the Roses, for example.

At best you take Cersei and Joff or w/e, but that probably just changes the players, not the game. Tywin didn't stop when Jaime was taken. The Tyrells probably barely care. If Stannis somehow breaks through and then later the Tyrell/Lannister army descends and besieges him, he might be even more fucked than he was the way things went down. Or he has to take the field and fight a battle he could have fought anyway, but with fewer men and a need to protect and feed KL on his plate.