Stannis relying so heavily on the Florents lost him the Blackwater.

[Bedwyck]

Davos lacks education and experience in all military matters. He's a good smuggler and a good sailor, but no soldier. And it shows.

Sending scouts up the Blackwater is impossible as long as there are ~30 Lannister ships waiting for them there. Ser Imry needed to send enough of a force to deal with them and the advantages being upriver and being supported from the city walls granted them. That means sending the biggest part of his fleet anyway.

Furthermore, Stannis' army had besieged the southern winch tower for days already. It was a known quantity, and the army had not only days to deal with it, but was also way better suited than the fleet. You may blame that on Stannis, but you can't blame Ser Imry for it.

Davos knows sailing (and especially sailing the Blackwater) a lot better than Ser Imry did. He was regularly accustomed to seeing the cities defenses. Because of this. If I remember correctly Davos actually noticed how suspicious it was that there were two newly constructed towers parallel to one another on each side of the river. He also thought it queer that they were being freely allowed to enter the river uncontested by the Royal Navy. I believe the word trap even crossed his mindwell before they even began feeling the effects of the wildfire.

Sending scouts would not have been impossible either. Would Kings Landing really want to risk losing the bulk of their undersized navy by sending all of their ships out there before the major assault even begins? I doubt it. Even if some of the scouting ships are destroyed so what? Stannis' navy was so huge at the time he could have risked losing a few ships in order to perhaps gain some prized information. I firmly believe that if Davos had been in charge the fleet would not have been nearly so devastated. He would have used his scouts' information to confirm his gut instincts that something was wrong and he would have at least saved a much better portion of the fleet. Ser Imry had no business leading it and it showed.

[James Arryn]

Davos knows sailing (and especially sailing the Blackwater) a lot better than Ser Imry did. He was regularly accustomed to seeing the cities defenses. Because of this. If I remember correctly Davos actually noticed how suspicious it was that there were two newly constructed towers parallel to one another on each side of the river. He also thought it queer that they were being freely allowed to enter the river uncontested by the Royal Navy. I believe the word trap even crossed his mindwell before they even began feeling the effects of the wildfire.

Sending scouts would not have been impossible either. Would Kings Landing really want to risk losing the bulk of their undersized navy by sending all of their ships out there before the major assault even begins? I doubt it. Even if some of the scouting ships are destroyed so what? Stannis' navy was so huge at the time he could have risked losing a few ships in order to perhaps gain some prized information. I firmly believe that if Davos had been in charge the fleet would not have been nearly so devastated. He would have used his scouts' information to confirm his gut instincts that something was wrong and he would have at least saved a much better portion of the fleet. Ser Imry had no business leading it and it showed.

Turning a huge fleet around in a river, at night, in front of an enemy fleet...with modern communication technology, that would be an iffy proposition. Communicating it by torchlight or similar? Pretty close to impossible.

A lot of naval of naval strategy is recognizing what is and what is not within your control. It's not like on land. Arresting momentum is an enormous task.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Send more.

A pointless endeavour if they're just going to get killed by the mountain clans.

You also said he was banking on Tywing going West so delaying for the Tyrells shouldn't matter if he thinks Tywin is going to defend CR over KL. And he doesn't have to wait for the Tyrell army to march with him, just to see what their intentions are. Odds are if he waits long enough to hear that Tarly killed a bunch of Florents and his envoys are thrown in cells he would know the Tyrells were a threat and not to march on KL.

Tell me, what should he do if attacking KL is not an option?

[The Bittersteel]

Even if all his troops had landed successfully he would have lost to the massive Lannister-Tyrell army.

[HannibalStark]

What cost the Blackwater to Stannis was lack of political foresight/strategic thinking. Marching to KL while ignoring the possible threat of Tywin in HH and most specially the undeclared Tyrell power on his back(notice that the Tyrells actually supply the barges for Tywin). After Renly's death, he should've marched to Bitterbridge to both claim his infantry and resolve the situation with the Tyrells(one way or another). The idea that they would just wiggle their fingers after all of this without doing anything(not even to gain a pardon) is just as naive as Ned's blunders as Hand. He didn't even tried to have the Martells to join him in marching against the Lannisters. He develop tunnel vision and paid for it with the greatest defeat of his career. The IT is the the end goal but there was plenty of obstacles to overcome before that.

he feared Tywin much much more than Highgarden, and with good reason....Highgarden was all might, not brains....(as the Queen of Thorn points out about the Lord Oaf of High Garden)

Tywin was engaged with ALL his forces with the Young Wolf and it was only by luck and with Edmure effing up Robbs plan (though maybe Robb should have clued him in)

But it was about Tywin....as long as he was not there it didn't matter he had the highgarden force at his back or with barges....he had no need to worry about just them because technically now both HighGarden and Stannis are both rebels so the downfall of the Lannisters was in both of their best interest. It wasn't until Tywin (and LF?? or whoever brokered a deal between the two-the show makes it all too convenient but perhaps the scouts of each army reported the other....then Tywin knowing how to quickly sieze an opportunity, seeing him loosing against Robb and there now being a HUGE opportunity with Renly dead siezed the moment himself) with Highgarden became buds that it was no longer in the Tyrells best interest to throw down the Lannisters.

But a rudderless Tyrell host meant nothing.....they mainly only mattered because Tywin was stuck between rivers and the Tyrells had barges.....so then now he had a way to ferry his troops where needed them most....and now he had a leaderless mass of troops available to stiffen his own.

[TheCasualObserver]

Why do people think KL is like the win button?

If you take KL with significant forces in the field against you, it can just as easily be an albatross. You now have to protect and feed it, which take huge resources, and you STILL have armies to fight.

RR being over after KL wasn't because of KL, but because it was preceded by the Trident. If the Trident is not fought, and Rhaegar, his army and the Tyrells are still in the field, the war isn't over.

It's worth noting that London changed hands endless times during the Wars of the Roses, for example.

At best you take Cersei and Joff or w/e, but that probably just changes the players, not the game. Tywin didn't stop when Jaime was taken. The Tyrells probably barely care. If Stannis somehow breaks through and then later the Tyrell/Lannister army descends and besieges him, he might be even more fucked than he was the way things went down. Or he has to take the field and fight a battle he could have fought anyway, but with fewer men and a need to protect and feed KL on his plate.

That's true, but if Stannis takes Joffrey and Tommen, the Lannister cause is all but dead in the water. Myrcella is in Dorne, and that would give Doran Martell the ability to make or break Tywin depending on what he does with the girl.

I don't know if it's presentism or not to say that Ser Imry should have followed Davos' advice and sent scouts up the Blackwater - Tyrion was smart enough to deploy his fleet anyway so that Stannis' navy didn't suspect a trap and they wouldn't have loosed the wildfyre nor raised the chain just for a couple of scout ships.

One thing Stephen Atwell noted over at Race for the Iron throne is that the Florents can only raise 2000 men, which seems low for a supposedly powerful house of the reach and a rival of the Tyrells. Additionally, I don't really understand why they had the political chops they did when their contribution to Stannis' war effort at the Blackwater was less than ten percent of his total force.

[fuem]

Sorta when Loras didnt support him sorta seemed to be more the case and when LF made the pact between Joff and Marg that seems to be more likely then the floss

[Biter the Gallant]

Ugh, yes, nothing good ever comes from those dreadful Florents. But as incompetent as Imry was, I'd say they've actually gotten worse after the Blackwater, with Alester trying to pimp out Shireen, and Axell and Selyse running the show at the Wall. That's gonna end bad.

Probably I am the only one, but I have always thought that Lord Alester Florent was quite a competent politician and diplomat. He achieved very good terms on the negotiations with the Lannisters, considering the totally hopeless situation of Stannis's cause. In case of a peace on those terms, Stannis would be more powerful as the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands than he was before the outbreak of the civil war, and his daughter would become the wife of the second-in-line heir to the Iron Throne. If Stannis was so worried about his inheritance, all he had to do to avoid Tommen inheriting the Stormlands would be living sex life with his wife and make some sons... he is not old at all (actually, he should have done that anyway).

I completely understand that these terms were shameful and totally amoral and unacceptable in the eyes of such men like Stannis and Davos, but for Alester it was probably just some Realpolitik.

[Basileus777]

Why do people think KL is like the win button?

If you take KL with significant forces in the field against you, it can just as easily be an albatross. You now have to protect and feed it, which take huge resources, and you STILL have armies to fight.

RR being over after KL wasn't because of KL, but because it was preceded by the Trident. If the Trident is not fought, and Rhaegar, his army and the Tyrells are still in the field, the war isn't over.

It's worth noting that London changed hands endless times during the Wars of the Roses, for example.

At best you take Cersei and Joff or w/e, but that probably just changes the players, not the game. Tywin didn't stop when Jaime was taken. The Tyrells probably barely care. If Stannis somehow breaks through and then later the Tyrell/Lannister army descends and besieges him, he might be even more fucked than he was the way things went down. Or he has to take the field and fight a battle he could have fought anyway, but with fewer men and a need to protect and feed KL on his plate.

Taking King's Landing means that Cersei, Joffery, and the entire small council are dead. If Stannis finds Tommen, then the Lannisters have no claim to the throne and have been dealt a decisive blow. Taking King's Landing would be a huge victory for Stannis. It wouldn't end the entire war, but it'd leave Stannis as the sole remaining claimant to the Iron Throne.

[Stormland's Fury]

Taking King's Landing means that Cersei, Joffery, and the entire small council are dead. If Stannis finds Tommen, then the Lannisters have no claim to the throne and have been dealt a decisive blow. Taking King's Landing would be a huge victory for Stannis. It wouldn't end the entire war, but it'd leave Stannis as the sole remaining claimant to the Iron Throne.

Not to mention getting Sansa and the Redwyne twins...

Sansa also is one of the few people that knew that Ned declared for Stannis, which is a double whammy concerning the loyalty of the North.

[khalhotpie]

Yeah if i recall though the florents arent just his realtives by marriage but also a lot of ardent red god supporters making them his most loyal troops

[new djinn]

he feared Tywin much much more than Highgarden, and with good reason....Highgarden was all might, not brains....(as the Queen of Thorn points out about the Lord Oaf of High Garden)

Tywin was engaged with ALL his forces with the Young Wolf and it was only by luck and with Edmure effing up Robbs plan (though maybe Robb should have clued him in)

But it was about Tywin....as long as he was not there it didn't matter he had the highgarden force at his back or with barges....he had no need to worry about just them because technically now both HighGarden and Stannis are both rebels so the downfall of the Lannisters was in both of their best interest. It wasn't until Tywin (and LF?? or whoever brokered a deal between the two-the show makes it all too convenient but perhaps the scouts of each army reported the other....then Tywin knowing how to quickly sieze an opportunity, seeing him loosing against Robb and there now being a HUGE opportunity with Renly dead siezed the moment himself) with Highgarden became buds that it was no longer in the Tyrells best interest to throw down the Lannisters.

But a rudderless Tyrell host meant nothing.....they mainly only mattered because Tywin was stuck between rivers and the Tyrells had barges.....so then now he had a way to ferry his troops where needed them most....and now he had a leaderless mass of troops available to stiffen his own.

When Stannis takes Renly's host, Tywin is sitting in HH. That's not engaging all his forces, that's placing himself to act in the Riverlands or at KL.

HG, with the death of Renly, was back into neutral state towards the Lannisters, not rebels. That's why LF goes there, and they are willing to negotiate. They don't have a clear candidate to the IT untill LF gives them one. Stannis will need the infantry against a fortified KL, he has a mostly mounted force against a mostly foot Tyrell and more importantely, he has a end game that the Tyrells don't (at this point). Besides, the Arryns and Martell are the only really neutral parties in what concerns Stannis, the Tyrells by backing Renly had already made a hostile move against Stannis, and unlike Florents, Fossoways, Stormlords, Cranes, etc, made no attempt at amends. If Stannis rides to Bitterbridge and gets on Mace's face, this would be settled(one way or another). There was argument at Bitterbridge, Casswell withdraws to his castle, Loras and LF argue against Stannis but someone of importance must have argue for him. If he shows up, it was possible to maybe swing more support at his cause. But ignoring it and leaving them to by collected by the Lannisters was a major mistake. And their number were enough to break Stannis assault of KL. Besides, even if he took KL, he would still have to divide his forces(what left of them) into defending the city and marching against his enemies, Tywin won't surrender at this point, Robb and Balon have declared themselves kings and having KL didn't make Martell, Arryns or Tyrells bend the knee to Joff, so why would that change? But he focus on gathering the support of the South before going to KL, he wouldn't be vulnerable to being flanked while caught with his pants down.

PS: I always tought curious how the Tyrells were willing to contenplate the possibility of having Robert setting aside Cersei(with three children, two of them males) for Margaery, but not Selyse(one child, female).

[Bedwyck]

Turning a huge fleet around in a river, at night, in front of an enemy fleet...with modern communication technology, that would be an iffy proposition. Communicating it by torchlight or similar? Pretty close to impossible.

A lot of naval of naval strategy is recognizing what is and what is not within your control. It's not like on land. Arresting momentum is an enormous task.

I'm not suggesting they turn a huge fleet around in a river. I'm suggesting that since Davos recognized those towers were for a chain boom upon first sight that he could have easily gathered that's what they were for based upon his scouts information ahead of time and thus exercised far more caution than Ser Imry did going in. There's no need to send nearly the whole fleet in the river at once when it appears that's exactly what they want you to do and you know they can trap everyone in there using the chain boom. They could have sent in a much smaller portion of their fleet to deal with the 30 Lannister ships.

Admittedly, this would have delayed them longer and probably allowed the Lannister/Tyrell host to show up before they get in the city which probably means they wont be able to take Kings Landing at the Battle, but it also means a great deal of Stannis' forces would have been saved even in defeat. He would not have been broken the way he was and could have looked for an alliance with Robb Stark to besiege the city which would have left him with a lot greater chances to win than how it went down.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Davos knows sailing (and especially sailing the Blackwater) a lot better than Ser Imry did. He was regularly accustomed to seeing the cities defenses. Because of this. If I remember correctly Davos actually noticed how suspicious it was that there were two newly constructed towers parallel to one another on each side of the river. He also thought it queer that they were being freely allowed to enter the river uncontested by the Royal Navy. I believe the word trap even crossed his mindwell before they even began feeling the effects of the wildfire.

Sending scouts would not have been impossible either. Would Kings Landing really want to risk losing the bulk of their undersized navy by sending all of their ships out there before the major assault even begins? I doubt it. Even if some of the scouting ships are destroyed so what? Stannis' navy was so huge at the time he could have risked losing a few ships in order to perhaps gain some prized information. I firmly believe that if Davos had been in charge the fleet would not have been nearly so devastated. He would have used his scouts' information to confirm his gut instincts that something was wrong and he would have at least saved a much better portion of the fleet. Ser Imry had no business leading it and it showed.

So did Ser Imry. The problem is, he had to sent enough ships into the river to reliably beat the ~30 first class warships the Lannisters kept there. Any force below let's say 60 first class ships would be destroyed by the Lannister ships in normal combat.

Ser Imry has only about 60 first class ships and a bunch of second and third rate ones. He had to go in full force (except the rear guard).