About Jon Snow NOT being Azor Ahai (and where I think it leads him)

[Victor Y.]

What's up, guys. I'm new to this forum. I am here to present my thoughts on Jon Snow NOT being the one meant to fulfill the prophecy about Azor Ahai reborn, and since he (as I assume) is not, what is the role he's being set to play in the whole story.

JS=AA seems to have become a rather popular theory lately, specially after being fueled by the many evidences supporting R+L=J (which I believe) and the whole bunch of unaswered questions that Jon's apparent death has left us (leading to the belief that he will eventually come back from the dead, which I also participate in). I will not present any ideas to support either of these theories, as I have nothing original to contribute with on these matters.

Personally, I did believe JS=AA for a while, until my obsession with GoT/ASOIAF led me to start making my own predictions, which led to the thoughts I'm about to share with you. It's going to be a long run, so let's get started. There is a TL;DR version by the end, though I'm not sure how good can it be without all the arguments that made the final text long.

First things first. I think Daenerys IS (as oposed to will become/be revealed/turn into) Azor Ahai reborn, and she just hasn't been so named yet. I mean, no matter how much wishful thinking we do, Azor Ahai's prophecy just fits perfectly with Dany's storyline, and it only kind of fits with Jon's, if we indulge very much on the details. Like, are we seriously trying to compare mercy-killing Khal Drogo with finding Ygritte's body during a battle she ultimately chose to be in? Being stabbed amidst a few tears and 'smoke' with stepping in a funeral pyre and then stepping out unharmed? A banner/flag with a star on it soaked in blood with a freaking red comet up in the sky for the whole world to see? And what about waking dragons from stone? I'd say Dany got pretty literal on that one, while Jon...

Also, if you're into this kind of subject, I'd say the whole way she just seems to instinctively know what she's doing when she steps into the funeral pyre and comes out alive with her dragons sounds pretty consistent with descriptions of people remembering what they've done in previous lives. In that case, she would not be getting those ideas by influence of external magic, but rather by accessing hidden memories from her previous existence as Azor Ahai.

So yes, it seems pretty obvious to me that AA's prophecy is all about Daenerys, and that she'll be ultimately chosen as R'hollor's champion, meant to lead the fight against the Great Other, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Also, I think it would be very poor storytelling if Jon just so happened to be one of the three dragon riders. He has no connection to dragons whatsoever. He doesn't even think about dragons often (the way, say, Tyrion does), and even if he is a secret Targaryen child (which I believe he is), it's already been stated by GRRM himself that one does not necessarily have to be a Targaryen in order to become a dragon rider, and that being a Targaryen does not mean you'll eventually get picked by one of those three scaly sweethearts.

It's also important to note that, in GRRM's story, the fate of most characters is usually outlined and foreshadowed by their pasts, according to which Jon's fate would have to somehow relate to things he has previously done, seen, thought or felt. Like finding out he's not a bastard, getting his soul trapped inside of Ghost's body, or even trying to solve other ancient rivalries, but I'm getting ahead of myself. My point here is that seeing Jon Snow become Azor Ahai, or even one of the three dragon riders, would feel very cheap and unjustified.

Ok, so what then? Does that mean Jon is just some (now deceased) secret Stark-Targaryen child and that's that? No dragons? No Lightbringer? No fiery mystical powers to free the world from White Walkers? Well, I think being a Stargaryen/Targark (sorry), Jon still is some kind of 'chosen one', but maybe not the kind we are being led to believe by the whole noise around AA's prophecy.

The prophecy is told from the perspective of the Red Priests, and it clearly estabilishes a very binary way of seeing the world, where you have the eternal fight between fire/ice, life/death, light/darkness, good/evil, and so on, much like what happens with most of the fantasy literature/cinema/television we've all been in touch with since always.

Now, wouldn't it be odd for an author like GRRM to create such a realistic world, incredibly rich in terms of human relationships and shades of morality, and then set up a twisted group of characters, with a very simplistic way of seeing this world, only to tell us in the end that they were right all the time? Only to push all of his (much admired) complexity down the drain with a big final cliché battle where "The Chosen One" leads the United Armies of Men against the forces of evil? I think it would (not to mention that putting Jon in such position would be kinda like turning him into Aragorn 2.0, which I don't think is GRRM's intention).

Now, what if the whole 'binarity' that's being built up around R'hollor & The Great Other is GRRM's actual final target (as in "the thing he wants to aim at and kill")? What if he's bringing all of this up only to later lead everyone (readers, characters, probably both) to the conclusion that one of the sides actually winning over the other for good is just not how the world works? Or rather, that it would be really, really bad news for everyone, regardless of who wins.

So what then? Who/what should we be rooting for anyway? The answer to this question is the main point of me writing all of this, but let's go back in time a little so I can make myself clear.

Have you ever wondered about the strange relationship that the inhabitants of the World of Ice and Fire have with years and seasons? I mean, their seasons are all irregular and unpredictable. They can last for years, and it's never the same amount of years. At the same time, though, their years seem to be pretty much like the real world ones.

Now, I'm not an expert, but I think that, as earthlings, our first understanding of how many days it takes to make a year came from our ancestors observing the change of seasons and counting how many days it took for them to go full circle (I know someone is going to bring up the change of position of objects in the sky, but you'll have to agree with me that, even nowadays, observing the seasons is probably the easiest, most intuitive way of knowing what time of the year it is). Okay. If that is the case for them too, how would the inhabitants of TWOIAF know what a year is (which they clearly do), when their seasons are so incredibly irregular and unpredictable? Well, maybe it hasn't been like that since always.

Perhaps during a period of time way before the beginning of the main story they had regular seasons just like we do. During such period their ancestors could have learned how to count the years, passed that knowledge on, but after that something really bad happened, made the seasons go crazy, and it's been like that since then.

But how did they get regular seasons, and why has it changed? Well, my wild guess would be that R'hollor and The Great Other were not always enemies. Maybe during a period of time way back there they were respected and seen by each other as complementary forces of nature rather than oposing ones. R'hollor would give the folks a little summer here, TGO would bring a little winter there, all nice and regular, repeating every 365 days, thus allowing the inhabitants of that world to understand the duration of this cycle as a very important way of measuring time. Eventually that knowledge became inherent to everyone and people wouldn't need regular seasons to know what a year is anymore.

Until, of course, TGO got bored of all that balance and decided to go greedy. He then tried to bring everlasting winter upon everyone, and he almost did. That event came to be known as The Long Night, and it lasted for generations, until some guy by the name of Azor Ahai decided to put an end to it. He managed to do so, but after that the balance that there used to be between R'hollor & TGO ceased to exist, and so they engaged in some kind of magical tug of war to see whose influence would prevail over TWOIAF. And it has been like that ever since, with both constantly fighting each other for influence over the weather (and I'm guessing there's more than just the weather involved), which would explain the fact that, even with such irregular, unpredictable seasons, long summers are always succeeded by long winters.

Made my point? Good!

Back to present time. It would seem reasonable to think that after a few milennia of playing tug of war with each other, and seeing that this was leading them to nowhere good, both gods would want to end this once and for all. Both of them would want to deal each other a final blow that would allow them to become the one real deal in the world. They would also want to prepare for such a massive task. And they have been, by causing magic in both sides to reawaken and by choosing people among humans whose lineage was strong enough to allow them to control and/or become their ultimate weapons. To state the obvious, Daenerys was picked by R'hollor, and TGO's champion is, as it's been already pointed out, Bran Stark.

So there you have the big picture. Dany ia AA reborn but, IMO, she can only be seen as a savior if you take it from the Red Priests' twisted point of view. She's only been chosen to become their ultimate weapon in the war to come, nothing more (I'm not arguing about her political intentions here, just about her relation to the prophecy). And as for Bran, I think at some point he'll be either convinced or forced into using his powers to favor the Others. And if the thought that he'd be just a crippled boy with visions against three dragons ever crosses your mind, just think about this: you're at war. You have a limited amount of nukes and your enemies have none, but they have access to the best, most advanced intel network in the world. They know where you are, where you will be, when and how you'll strike, even before you do. Who wins?

Okay, so before we move on to the conclusion, it would be useful to remind ourselves about the places pointed out as probable sources for the powers of both gods: Asshai & The Lands Of Always Winter. Both places are seen as very dark and dangerous, both are treated with fear and sorrounded in mysteries. I will go ahead and take that as an indicator that none of them, and therefore none of their corresponding gods, in their true, purest forms, are exactly human-friendly. And thinking about the way the Long Night is described, it would seem reasonable to imagine that the masterplans of both gods (actually one of them, but I'm assuming they'll work in similar ways) could involve trying to turn the rest of the world into something very similar to their source locations. I'm just saying this so we don't allow ourselves to be fooled by the idea that R'hollor winning the war would mean everlasting summer for everyone.

Now, if I was a very reasonable, very well informed inhabitant of TWOIAF and knew about this war to come, do you know what I would think? "We're all doomed!". I would not start rooting for or support any side. I would think "if this side wins we are all going to freeze to death, but if this other side wins, we're going to burn". Given what we know about both, seeing either of them win would bring the world to absolute chaos. What then?

Well, one thing that could be nice would be if there was any way to stop the conflict before it killed us all. Right? Maybe having both sides come to reason and perhaps even giving it a shot at the old balance that there was between them before all of this even started.

Thinking about it, do you know what could be very useful? If there was an experienced soldier somewhere, with recent history of trying to solve another ancient enmity between two oposing factions, for the "greater good" of both. It would also be convenient if such character was among the few who happened to be in the presence of both Others and Red Priests, getting a very rare understanding of how both sides work. Extra points of convenience if this guy carried in his blood lineages associated with both sides involved in the war to come, which would probably give him at least a chance to talk to either one before getting himself killed. Well, I think you get it.

So, of course, I believe Jon Snow is this character. I think trying to stop R'hollor & TGO from fighting each other and destroying the world in the process will be his ultimate task, his ultimate role in the the war to come (I also believe that at some point he will be forced to kill Bran in the process, which could be part of GRRM's bittersweet ending, but that's purely instinctive speculation). Maybe he'll be the one to restore balance between both sides, and make the seasons become regular again. I also think he may become some kind of lonely, unsung hero while he's at it, trying to keep everyone safe from doom, while people just go nuts and start picking sides in a war that is destined to kill all of them. Sounds pretty GRRM-chaotic to me.

What I like about this idea is that it's consistent with Jon's history of trying to establish alliances between factions engaged in historical, milennia-old rivalry, where he sees a very tough, but possible way out, while everyone else just wants to jump at each other. I also think it's consistent with GRRM's way of doing things. As I stated before, I don't think it would make any sense for him to set up such a rich world in terms of morality and human relations, only to wrap it all up with a messiah-like hero waking up from the dead and leading every other human being (who now would seem to magically respect and like each other) against the forces of evil. Wake up guys, the way the Red Priests see the world is a... red herring. It would be just too much development for too little conclusion.

Now, if the ultimate hero in GRRM's story was supposed not to pick sides, but instead to bring everything to a more natural balance, it would also make much more sense with him. Because balance, you see, is not about 'happily ever after'. Balance is more like 'people are born and die everyday'. Bad and ugly things will still happen very often when everything is in balance. Unlike "men uniting against the forces of evil", it is a complex idea, and it's more like the story GRRM has been trying to tell us all along.

And I don't think Jon's comprehension of this situation will come easily, much less his acceptance. Of course not. After all, he is the one trying to form questionable alliances in order to gather an army capable of standing against the Others and getting stabbed for it. It would have to come through someone worthy of Jon's absolute trust and very engaged in trying to understand what the hell is going on. That, I believe, is the true reason why GRRM (notice I said GRRM an not Jon) decided to send Sam Tarly to the Citadel. I picture him giving up on his much anticipated maester chain (that would take years we don't have anyway) and trying to desperately flee back to the Wall as soon as he finds out the truth. It would feel way more Martin-esque than him magically reappearing there with a full chain, a bag filled with anti-Other weapons and an army of maesters ready to use them.

Finally, there's the fact that (as we assume) Jon is a very special character for being both a Targaryen and a Stark, making him Ice and Fire combined. Wouldn't it feel very pointless if, when push came to shove, he just decided to favor one side over the other anyway? We already have a Stark that's probably going to be used by TGO and a Targaryen that's probably going to be used by R'hollor. Considering that scenario, bringing up the probable only Stark/Targaryen child in history, only to make him support one of them, would make no sense at all, so his role would have to be related to achieving something in the thin line in between both sides. And that, I think, wraps it all up.

That being said, I think we are done here. Thank you very much for sticking with me until the end. I'm dying to know your thoughts on it!


TL;DR:
Jon Snow is not AA, and not even one of the dragon riders. Daenerys obviously is. Being Azor Ahai, though, she's not some kind of savior to TWOIAF. She and her dragons are merely weapons that are being prepared by R'hollor to be used in the war to come against The Great Other. Bran Stark is her equivalent on the other side. None of the gods care about humans and they just want to see their powers prevail, so none of them winning the war will bring anything good to the rest of the world. People will obviously not see this and start picking sides, when the only possible way out will be to stop the fighting and go for some kind of peace/balance treaty between them (please see the long version to understand why I think this is possible, and how it would be different from AA stopping the Long Night).

Jon will be among the few capable of seeing this. The power in his blood (according to R+L=J) makes him valuable for both sides, and he has a recent history of trying to solve another ancient rivalry, which he will use to his favor. Trying to somehow stop the conflict between R'hollor and The Great Other will be Jon's ultimate task in the story. I'm not saying he will succeed.

[XSarellaX]

I agree with you :) I was never fully convinced Jon was AA (though I still want him to be TPtwP). Him being the one that restores the balance fits the story so much better

[Monoman32]

GRRM wants religion in his world to be like it is in our world.  He wouldn't tell us what gods are real and which are not, he would want us to use our own beliefs.  I don't think he would create a story where the seasons are dependent on a never ending conflict between 2 gods regardless if people believe them or not.  The seasons no doubt have a magical component, but not a religious one.  

[Victor Y.]

I agree with you :) I was never fully convinced Jon was AA (though I still want him to be TPtwP). Him being the one that restores the balance fits the story so much better

I agree with you about The Prince that was Promised. I wanted to include a paragraph about it, but I thought the text was too long already and decided to wait for it to show up during the discussion. Thanks for bringing it up so fast hahahah

That's what I meant when I said Jon still may be some kind of 'chosen one'. I believe AA and TPtwP are entirely different people with entirely different roles to play in the war to come, but still both were somehow chosen.

[Darkstream]

I think that was brilliant, finally a theory that makes sense to me from every angle. Great job of tying in the role of all three of the supposed "heroes".

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Jon is AAR but not PWWP .

[Harry Angel]

I like that bit about Jon being an unsung hero, technically he is one right now by saving thousands of people from becoming wights; it fits his character perfectly. Good job!

[Colton Casados-Medve]

Azor Ahai prophecy is fake. Red God is fake. The Great Other is fake. The Seven Gods are fake.

 

In my opinion the only gods that have a shot at being real in the universe are the Old Gods, and even then the power of the Weirwoods and COTF may not be from the Old Gods but from themselves. Everyone else is just dabbling in blood magic and attributing it to a divine. 

 

And GRRM said that no gods will make an appearance in the stories. Whether or not we want to make their involvement in the stories head-canon is up to us. But Martin said there is no "scientific" way to break down the way magic works in his universe. Its wild and unpredictable and no one really understands how it works. 

 

I find it much more likely that all the prophecies are misguided. Prophetic visions are probably sent by individuals (like Quaithe and BR) with the intent of getting people to take action against certain problems, like the Others and what not. The only way a human will attempt to put that cause above their own immediate political squabbles is if they believe they are destined to fulfill some role, or something. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

Ya, I mean from my POV a lot of what you stated it obvious, Dany literally hatched dragons from stone etc, its just that a lot, and I mean a lot of people on this forum hate Dany in a completely irrational way to the point they would never accept that.  And no, it is not irrational to dislike a character you read in a book, but it is irrational to spend your time making threads just to bash said character and spend time making up absurd theories just to take away from the accomplishments that character achieved(MMD was responsible)

[JPJK79]

Jon is the PTWP I am nearly positive on that. His life was based on a promise and since I tend to think that AA and the PTWP are the same person/entity I think Jon is Azor Ahai then as well.

 

One thing I do agree with you on is that the all thing about the song in a song of ice and fire actually means battle of ice and fire. And something Bloodraven says to Bran in aDwD. "Every song needs a balance".  So my interpretation of that is every battle needs a balance. Cant have on side fully be the winner. I believe Jon is the balance. He has blood of both ice and fire. He is a warg and possibly could be a dragon binder.

[XSarellaX]

I'd just like to add the balance doesn't have to be between Rhollor and the Great Other, but between the two natural forces of the world (ice and fire). There's no need for the Gods to be directly involved.

Any chance Jon will seal a new Pact in the Isle of Faces, or something? GRRM did imply the Green Men would be important.

[Victor Y.]

I may have overused the word 'gods' and made it seem like they necessarily have to be conscient beings. Even though that really is my belief, it doen't have to be like this in order to make the theory work. It may indeed be only two forces of nature somehow tied to magic. Even if the gods themselves aren't real/conscient, their wills are represented by conscient beings capable of performing really powerful magic.

[Victor Y.]

He is a warg and possibly could be a dragon binder.

I have this feeling that if either Bran or Jon eventually happen to warg into a dragon (which many seem to believe, but I think is highly unlikely), it will be in a desperate moment where the two other dragons will be about to do something terrible and will need to be stopped somehow, by facing one of their own in battle.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Nice post! However when I read it the only thing that came to my mind was "Yada yada yada I want Dany to be AAR so I will keep ignore the text because it doesn't agree with what I want. Yada yada yada yada"

[LordStoneheart]

Nice post! However when I read it the only thing that came to my mind was "Yada yada yada I want Dany to be AAR so I will keep ignore the text because it doesn't agree with what I want. Yada yada yada yada"

 

Meanwhile, back at the Wall with Jon riding Drogon...

[Victor Y.]

Nice post! However when I read it the only thing that came to my mind was "Yada yada yada I want Dany to be AAR so I will keep ignore the text because it doesn't agree with what I want. Yada yada yada yada"

Hahahah. It may be so. But see, at first I really wanted Jon to be AA, and was fully convinced that that was the reason he would have to come back from death. It was only after comparing Jon's prophecy points with Dany's over and over that it became clear to me that Dany's storyline already fit perfectly with AA's prophecy, while Jon's was pretty much wishful thinking.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

 

Meanwhile, back at the Wall with Jon riding Drogon...

What does it has to do with what we are talking about here? I am calling it  :bs:  because you know better than this.

Hahahah. It may be so. But see, at first I really wanted Jon to be AA, and was fully convinced that that was the reason he would have to come back from death. It was only after comparing Jon's prophecy points with Dany's over and over that it became clear to me that Dany's storyline alteady fit perfectly with AA's prophecy.

Just like all red herrings do. For me Jon has more the text proofs than Dany.

[INCBlackbird]

Ya, I mean from my POV a lot of what you stated it obvious, Dany literally hatched dragons from stone etc, its just that a lot, and I mean a lot of people on this forum hate Dany in a completely irrational way to the point they would never accept that.  And no, it is not irrational to dislike a character you read in a book, but it is irrational to spend your time making threads just to bash said character and spend time making up absurd theories just to take away from the accomplishments that character achieved(MMD was responsible)

I will not deny that there's a lot of undeserved Dany hate on this site, it surprised me. And I do think that what you say is partially true, but for me personally, I think that Dany being Azor Ahai, is TOO obvious. The prophecy would have already happened in the end of the first book, while it's such a big thing I feel like that's too early. And then there's the fact that I believe the prince that was promised is the same as azor ahai, I don't see any reason to believe it's not the same prophecy and "his is the song of ice and fire", which if you believe R+L=J (which I do) points to Jon.

 

to the OP: good job though, your version also makes a lot of sense, I guess we'll have to wait and find out which version comes closest to the truth.

[XSarellaX]

I don't know... Stanis being called AA smells like a red herring. Dany hatching Dragons under a comet after killing Drogo seems like the real deal. Just saying. IMO, it takes some effort to read the signs in Jon's death scene and ignore the signs in Dany's story.

BUT what may very well be misleading is the belief that AA=TPtwP, and that AA is the saviour. That's what people in world seem to believe, that's what we tend to believe. In that sense, yes, Dany is a giant red herring.

I feel I should be honest, though. That's what I want to happen, because the whole "promise me, Ned" thing makes it so damn poetic..

Also, GRRM said HR can't show up yet because he knows way too much about the main mistery of the series. Well, RLJ is a big mistery, but more important than everything about the Others? Unless he also knows how Jon's birth ties into the song of ice and fire....

[Victor Y.]

I will not deny that there's a lot of undeserved Dany hate on this site, it surprised me. And I do think that what you say is partially true, but for me personally, I think that Dany being Azor Ahai, is TOO obvious. The prophecy would have already happened in the end of the first book, while it's such a big thing I feel like that's too early. And then there's the fact that I believe the prince that was promised is the same as azor ahai, I don't see any reason to believe it's not the same prophecy and "his is the song of ice and fire", which if you believe R+L=J (which I do) points to Jon.
 
to the OP: good job though, your version also makes a lot of sense, I guess we'll have to wait and find out which version comes closest to the truth.

Thanks!

But see, this is my point exactly. If he is the PtwP, and 'his is the song of ice and fire', wouldn't that be inconsistent with a prophecy that clearly talks about a warrior of fire, with a fiery sword and fiery dragons?