The Faceless Men board meeting and its two victims

[Amris]

In the 'The Ugly Little Girl' chapter in ADWD (Arya's last chapter in the book) Arya witnesses a board meeting of the FM:

Eleven servants of the Many-Faced God gathered that night beneath the temple, more than she had ever seen together at one time. Only the lordling and the fat fellow arrived by the front door; the rest came by secret ways, through tunnels and hidden passages. They wore their robes of black and white, but as they took their seats each man pulled his cowl down to show the face he had chosen to wear that day. Their tall chairs were carved of ebony and weirwood, like the doors of the temple above.

"I know this man," she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. "I know this man," the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else.

I wonder who the two intended victims are?

GRRM has used the Arya POV to show us this meeting for a reason. Probably because the victims are very important. That the victims are important is also made clear by the fact that Arya has never witnessed so many FM gather before.

Now I think we can agree on that if GRRM spells something out for us this clearly then the victims will be characters playing important roles in the story. In other words: we likely have met these victims already!

 

Who might they be?

Three high-profile murders or attempted murders happen in close proximity to this meeting:

- A couple of chapters earlier we had the poisoned locusts. (The order of the chapters does not necessarily mean the locusts happened before the FM board meeting. GRRM does not place the chapters in timeline order. He likes to confuse us.)

- Shortly after this board meeting we have Jon's stabbing in his last ADwD chapter.

- And also shortly after we have Kevan getting shot in the epilogue.

 

We have a tiny possible clue insofar as one of the FM might turn up during Cersei's walk of shame in the chapter directly following the board meeting:

One of the assassins Arya sees at the meeting: "... the one whose face bore the marks of plague. His cheeks were covered with weeping sores, crusted at the corners of both eyes."

In the next chapter Cersei sees: "She saw ... a man whose cheeks and brow were covered with open sores that wept grey pus."

 

We may or may not have another clue in the fact that Tycho Nestoris arrives at The Wall before Jon's stabbing.

Tycho is from Baavos. I don't mean to imply Tycho is a FM (though its not impossible) - but since he came from Baavos and brought three ships and crew we know that a lot of people arrived at Eastwatch from Braavos prior to Jon's stabbing. So a good opportunity for an FM to hide among them and get to the Wall. The problem I have is that I don't see how the FM (or the Iron Bank) could profit from killing Jon. It seems rather they would shoot themselves in the foot by harming him. Unless the FM have a hidden agenda we don't know about.

 

We also know Tycho Nestoris arrives at Winterfell in the middle of the snow storm (finding Umbers instead of Stannis around Winterfell). So Tycho and whoever companions he has (including a possible First Man on an assignment from that board meeting) is at Winterfell about the same time the Umber drums and horns go off, the murders happen inside, the Hooded Man walks across the courtyard, Little Walder gets stuffed into a bank of snow next to the crypt entrance, Theon and Jeyne escape and Mance does his Mance things (whatever they may turn out to be).

Any ideas?

[Ser Walter of AShwood]

2 minutes ago, Amris said:

The problem I have is that I don't see how the FM (or the Iron Bank) could profit from killing Jon. It seems rather they would shoot themselves in the foot by harming him. Unless the FM have a hidden agenda we don't know about.

The Iron bank surely wouldn't. Jon had just been bickering with Tycho about a loan for the NW, to make sure they could but food and supplies to last the winter. Thco knows the rest of the NW do not know about this contract (yet). Killing Jon would make sure the IB would not get their money back. So the IB would only lose if they had Jon killed.

For the FM, basically they're hired assassins, if you pay the price, they will kill the target. So then the question would be, who has the most to gain in Jons death?
He currently is no threat to the throne, and only an indirect threat to the North, because he allowed the free folk to pass the wall.

The only people who have something to gain in Jons death, are members of the NW, who are stuck in 'the wildlings are evil' mode. And guess what, these are exactly the people who kill him.

Kevan is clearly killed by Varys and his little birds. So no FM there either.

The murders at Winterfell are done by people who have been in Winterfell for some time, who the killer/hooded man is, I don't know, but I seriously doubt it is a FM.

If the FM have a prime target in Westeros that was discussed during the meeting, this target is currently still alive and will be killed in the beginning of TWOW.
Sidenote: Keep in mind that a lot of FM mention that they know the target, and will thus not execute the FM contract. It is therefore also likely that the target may be someone important in Braavos.

[Amris]

57 minutes ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

The Iron bank surely wouldn't. Jon had just been bickering with Tycho about a loan for the NW, to make sure they could but food and supplies to last the winter. Thco knows the rest of the NW do not know about this contract (yet). Killing Jon would make sure the IB would not get their money back. So the IB would only lose if they had Jon killed.

For the FM, basically they're hired assassins, if you pay the price, they will kill the target. So then the question would be, who has the most to gain in Jons death?
He currently is no threat to the throne, and only an indirect threat to the North, because he allowed the free folk to pass the wall.

The only people who have something to gain in Jons death, are members of the NW, who are stuck in 'the wildlings are evil' mode. And guess what, these are exactly the people who kill him.

Kevan is clearly killed by Varys and his little birds. So no FM there either.

The murders at Winterfell are done by people who have been in Winterfell for some time, who the killer/hooded man is, I don't know, but I seriously doubt it is a FM.

If the FM have a prime target in Westeros that was discussed during the meeting, this target is currently still alive and will be killed in the beginning of TWOW.
Sidenote: Keep in mind that a lot of FM mention that they know the target, and will thus not execute the FM contract. It is therefore also likely that the target may be someone important in Braavos.

We can safely assume the Faceless Men are the enforcement department of the Iron Bank - at least for the time being:

- I don't think it is a coincidence that Arya witnesses the biggest board meeting of the Faceless Men she has ever seen after Cersei has ceased paying back the loans the Iron Bank had handed out to the Iron Throne.

- Jon in ADwD when musing about Tycho Nestoris' arrival thinks the following:

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ... Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne.

Since accomplishing regime change in Westeros is clearly a major enforcement operation for the Iron Bank I would be surprised if no Faceless Man operated against the current regime in King's Landing and (once a deal between Stannis and the Iron Bank has been made) also against the Boltons.

Under this logic Kevan would make perfect sense as a FM target. However you are of course right that the epilogue shows us Varys and his little birds as his killers. Both these facts taken together gives one quite a lot to think about.

Then there is the possible FM sighting in King's Landing during Cersei's walk of shame which I cited in the OP.

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Amris said:

In the 'The Ugly Little Girl' chapter in ADWD (Arya's last chapter in the book) Arya witnesses a board meeting of the FM:

Eleven servants of the Many-Faced God gathered that night beneath the temple, more than she had ever seen together at one time. Only the lordling and the fat fellow arrived by the front door; the rest came by secret ways, through tunnels and hidden passages. They wore their robes of black and white, but as they took their seats each man pulled his cowl down to show the face he had chosen to wear that day. Their tall chairs were carved of ebony and weirwood, like the doors of the temple above.

"I know this man," she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. "I know this man," the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else.

I wonder who the two intended victims are?

 

I don't think we have seen yet the deed. We'd need to wait for the next book, but I'd bet it's something of importance not just to show the inner working of the FM. There is also this quote

"The priests used the language of Braavos, though once for several minutes three spoke heatedly in High Valyrian."

Which means that the decision was likely controversial.

However, soon after Arya was tasked with her first mission, so one of the victims is the man who was killed with the gold coin.

[Praetor Xyn]

I agree that we likely haven't seen the deed done as of yet. There's no evidence for it whatsoever, but it wouldn't surprise me if the target was either someone on Arya list or someone besides Jon who's important to her. I think this deed should serve to get her back to Westeros and hopefully away from the HoBW.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Amris said:

In the 'The Ugly Little Girl' chapter in ADWD (Arya's last chapter in the book) Arya witnesses a board meeting of the FM:

Eleven servants of the Many-Faced God gathered that night beneath the temple, more than she had ever seen together at one time. Only the lordling and the fat fellow arrived by the front door; the rest came by secret ways, through tunnels and hidden passages. They wore their robes of black and white, but as they took their seats each man pulled his cowl down to show the face he had chosen to wear that day. Their tall chairs were carved of ebony and weirwood, like the doors of the temple above.

"I know this man," she did hear a priest with the face of a plague victim say. "I know this man," the fat fellow echoed, as she was pouring for him. But the handsome man said, "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else.

I wonder who the two intended victims are?

GRRM has used the Arya POV to show us this meeting for a reason. Probably because the victims are very important. That the victims are important is also made clear by the fact that Arya has never witnessed so many FM gather before.

Now I think we can agree on that if GRRM spells something out for us this clearly then the victims will be characters playing important roles in the story. In other words: we likely have met these victims already!

 

Who might they be?

Three high-profile murders or attempted murders happen in close proximity to this meeting:

- A couple of chapters earlier we had the poisoned locusts. (The order of the chapters does not necessarily mean the locusts happened before the FM board meeting. GRRM does not place the chapters in timeline order. He likes to confuse us.)

- Shortly after this board meeting we have Jon's stabbing in his last ADwD chapter.

- And also shortly after we have Kevan getting shot in the epilogue.

 

We have a tiny possible clue insofar as one of the FM might turn up during Cersei's walk of shame in the chapter directly following the board meeting:

One of the assassins Arya sees at the meeting: "... the one whose face bore the marks of plague. His cheeks were covered with weeping sores, crusted at the corners of both eyes."

In the next chapter Cersei sees: "She saw ... a man whose cheeks and brow were covered with open sores that wept grey pus."

 

We may or may not have another clue in the fact that Tycho Nestoris arrives at The Wall before Jon's stabbing.

Tycho is from Baavos. I don't mean to imply Tycho is a FM (though its not impossible) - but since he came from Baavos and brought three ships and crew we know that a lot of people arrived at Eastwatch from Braavos prior to Jon's stabbing. So a good opportunity for an FM to hide among them and get to the Wall. The problem I have is that I don't see how the FM (or the Iron Bank) could profit from killing Jon. It seems rather they would shoot themselves in the foot by harming him. Unless the FM have a hidden agenda we don't know about.

 

We also know Tycho Nestoris arrives at Winterfell in the middle of the snow storm (finding Umbers instead of Stannis around Winterfell). So Tycho and whoever companions he has (including a possible First Man on an assignment from that board meeting) is at Winterfell about the same time the Umber drums and horns go off, the murders happen inside, the Hooded Man walks across the courtyard, Little Walder gets stuffed into a bank of snow next to the crypt entrance, Theon and Jeyne escape and Mance does his Mance things (whatever they may turn out to be).

Any ideas?

Your theory is certainly possible, but I think your links to Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow, and Kevan Lannister are relatively weak. In the absence of some objective of the Faceless Men, we would have identify the persons hiring the assassins. In the case of Daenerys, Galazza Galare likely orchastrated the poisoning herself. As to Jon Snow, a conservative faction of the men of the Watch took matters into their own hands. As to Kevan, I see no reason to doubt that Varys whacked 'em. 

Doesn't Arya tell us that some of the Faceless Men gather from time to time? Yes, the George describes only one, but do you see any reason to suspect that the others are much different? If so, why would he describe more? What the passage does suggest is that Faceless Men don't hit folks they know directly. 

I share your assumption about Plague Face being in King's Landing, and wonder who his mark is. 

I also suspect that Plague Face, at least possibly, could be the same Faceless Man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God and later killed Pate. 

[Philokles]

2 hours ago, Amris said:

GRRM has used the Arya POV to show us this meeting for a reason. Probably because the victims are very important. That the victims are important is also made clear by the fact that Arya has never witnessed so many FM gather before.

Now I think we can agree on that if GRRM spells something out for us this clearly then the victims will be characters playing important roles in the story. In other words: we likely have met these victims already!

I disagree. The Braavosi storyline is by necessity less tightly plotted than the Westerosi equivalent with only POV spending meaningful time there. Many of the things Arya sees, says or does will have little bearing on the wider plot beyond her character development. The meeting could quite easily just be a way of introducing the Insurance Man mission and providing more background on the FM for both Arya and us. That is not to say the victims won't be important people in the wider story, just that it is not guaranteed.

[Amris]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think we have seen yet the deed. We'd need to wait for the next book, but I'd bet it's something of importance not just to show the inner working of the FM. There is also this quote

"The priests used the language of Braavos, though once for several minutes three spoke heatedly in High Valyrian."

Which means that the decision was likely controversial.

However, soon after Arya was tasked with her first mission, so one of the victims is the man who was killed with the gold coin.

Yes it is possible that we don't have seen the two victims yet. Though I tend to think we probably have seen at least one.

However the insurance agent that Arya was then tasked to kill was definitely not one of the two. That is because we know which two assassins were sent for the two targets while the one who then gave Arya her mission was a third one (all three had been at the meeting, the two with the appointed targets then left, the third stayed and gave Arya her own target):

But the handsame man said: "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else. After three hours of wine and words, the priests took their leave ... all but the kindly man, the waif and the one whose face bore the marks of the plague. His cheeks were covered with weaping sores and his hair had fallen out ...

"Who are you?" plague face asked when they were alone.

"No one."

etc pp. After some bantering he gives her the insurance-man mission.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Amris said:

We can safely assume the Faceless Men are the enforcement department of the Iron Bank - at least for the time being:

- I don't think it is a coincidence that Arya witnesses the biggest board meeting of the Faceless Men she has ever seen after Cersei has ceased paying back the loans the Iron Bank had handed out to the Iron Throne.

- Jon in ADwD when musing about Tycho Nestoris' arrival thinks the following:

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ... Unless Stannis is lying dead beneath the walls of Winterfell, he may just have won the Iron Throne.

Since accomplishing regime change in Westeros is clearly a major enforcement operation for the Iron Bank I would be surprised if no Faceless Man operated against the current regime in King's Landing and (once a deal between Stannis and the Iron Bank has been made) also against the Boltons.

Under this logic Kevan would make perfect sense as a FM target. However you are of course right that the epilogue shows us Varys and his little birds as his killers. Both these facts taken together gives one quite a lot to think about.

Then there is the possible FM sighting in King's Landing during Cersei's walk of shame which I cited in the OP.

I would assume that the Iron Bank might hire the Faceless Men in certain cases, but they are currently going for regime change, not assassination in the Seven Kingdoms. And if a Fregar wanted to off an officer of the Iron Bank for diddling his son, I expect he could hire the Faceless Men to do it. 

[Amris]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Your theory is certainly possible, but I think your links to Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow, and Kevan Lannister are relatively weak. In the absence of some objective of the Faceless Men, we would have identify the persons hiring the assassins. In the case of Daenerys, Galazza Galare likely orchastrated the poisoning herself. As to Jon Snow, a conservative faction of the men of the Watch took matters into their own hands. As to Kevan, I see no reason to doubt that Varys whacked 'em. 

Doesn't Arya tell us that some of the Faceless Men gather from time to time? Yes, the George describes only one, but do you see any reason to suspect that the others are much different? If so, why would he describe more? What the passage does suggest is that Faceless Men don't hit folks they know directly. 

I share your assumption about Plague Face being in King's Landing, and wonder who his mark is. 

I also suspect that Plague Face, at least possibly, could be the same Faceless Man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God and later killed Pate. 

I don't really see how the FM would profit from killing Jon. And we have seen his assassination play out so I tend to agree he was not a FM hit. Unless they were really sneaky (which we know they are, heh) and sent the Pink Letter. But I don't want to open that can of worms. We have enough suspected authors for that one as it is. So: yeah, I think Jon was not a target.

The poisoned locusts also sound unlikely as a FM hit, I agree with you there too. Not because I am 100% sure it was the Green Grace (though she certainly is a suspect). But because we (think at least) that the attempt failed. A failure is not typical FM procedure. However there is one tiny possibility which would make the poisoned locusts actually a successful hit, not a failure and would explain FM involvement:

The possibility I am speaking of is that the locusts were actually not meant to kill someone! The poison was low-dosed enough to make sure no one (especially not Dany) would be killed! They were just meant to make somebody sick enough to scream 'poison'.

Under this reasoning the locusts were the fire-arc equivalent to the Pink Letter in the ice-arc: meant to provoke someone (here Dany) into doing something hasty. More precisely: provoking her into killing the peace process. Starting the war between Dany and the slavers.

That might be something the Braavosi could be up to. With their hatred for slavery. And to get Dany started for Westeros finally to kick the butt of those loan-defaulters on the IT.

I am not saying I am remotely sure this really played out. But I keep that in mind as one possibility. I am not sold on the Green Grace or Hizdar or the House of Pahl. Although I don't rule any of them out either.

As to Kevan, again yeah. We have seen it play out.

I wonder though: With the Iron Bank having this strong motive to get rid of him and Jon explicitly thinking:

"When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones. As poor plump Tommen may be about to learn. ..."

In light of this musing by Jon I am starting to wonder:

Was Aegon (and maybe Viserys too) actually and unknowingly part of a safety net the Iron Bank had clandestinely woven years in advance while it was handing out these ever bigger loans to the Iron Throne? Something they kept as an option in case - the loans defaulted? A safety net the bank has now activated. And that would lead to the thought: has Varys been the Iron Bank's secret operative in King's Landing all the time - the one they kept there as a failsafe - to promote regime change if needed?

 

 

[rotting sea cow]

9 minutes ago, Amris said:

Yes it is possible that we don't have seen the two victims yet. Though I tend to think we probably have seen at least one.

However the insurance agent that Arya was then tasked to kill was definitely not one of the two. That is because we know which two assassins were sent for the two targets while the one who then gave Arya her mission was a third one (all three had been at the meeting, the two with the appointed targets then left, the third stayed and gave Arya her own target):

But the handsame man said: "I will give this man the gift. I know him not." Later the squinter said the same thing, of someone else. After three hours of wine and words, the priests took their leave ... all but the kindly man, the waif and the one whose face bore the marks of the plague. His cheeks were covered with weaping sores and his hair had fallen out ...

"Who are you?" plague face asked when they were alone.

"No one."

etc pp. After some bantering he gives her the insurance-man mission.

 

Ok. Thanks for the correction.

My take. One of the targets is completely unrelated to the story. Just because two targets may be too much. Just so.

Of the assassinations (attempts) you mention in ADWD, none fits with FM actions.

So, let's assume the other target is related to the Westeros situation. Possible options are:

- Jaqen H'ghar: He may have gone rogue or working for the "Other side".

- With Braavos having thrown their (financial) weight behind Stannis, the FM may want to help him in a different way. The killing in WF have been discussed long, some are suspicious and may hint towards different perpetrators. I joked about the involvement of FM because one of the Ryswell's men got his face chewed. Maybe it's not so off target. Otherwise, they may want to kill some Stannis enemy or produce further destabilization in Westeros.

In the later case, I don't think that it's any PoV, because most have relatively well defined arcs and early endings may not be very fulfilling. Same with many important nonPoV characters.  

Notice again, the selection of the target was controversial enough that the FM discussed it heatedly, which is weird for such kind of people.

 

 

 

 

[Amris]

5 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

[snip]

Notice again, the selection of the target was controversial enough that the FM discussed it heatedly, which is weird for such kind of people.

 

 

 

 

Yes.

To me it indicates the FM are in an unusually complicated and serious position. Which would be the case if they indeed were planning to help get a regime-change in Westeros going. There would be tons of possibile targets after all and they have to agree on which are best.