tyrrel demands

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

12 hours ago, Agent Orange said:

Hey Alex.  It's not that simple.  There are prejudices and preferences involved.  The Tyrells never wanted Stannis on the throne and they will not support any Stark whose ambition it is to rule over them.  The Starks are First Men who worship the Old Gods.  I wager, not the kind of boss the Tyrells would want.  The Tyrells were looking for a new boss and they want Margery to marry the new boss.  It is one thing to marry Loras to a Stark but quite a different matter to pick a Stark to be your next boss.  

I don't have much to back it up but I think the Tyrells have never lost their loyalty to the Targaryens.  They will be ready to support their restoration should one with a chance to win come knocking.  But they're not stupid.  They won't risk themselves for somebody who doesn't already have a big army backing them up.

 This could be somewhat true  however their greed and need for power has destroyed that opportunity.

It appears The golden company has their reach leader picked out (im 99% sure I know who) and I would personally find it extremely odd for Marg to marry ANY OTHER King (especially this part of her life) and Aegon will likely need to marry Arianne 

And Dany..... Would see them all as enemies 

The Tyrell's threw in with Lannisters and it's not working out as planned,  I don't know if they get the chance to turn their cloak again.

I don't think the trials will change this only make their current alliance weaker 

 

[cpg2016]

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sure, they'll have influence, but unless they are willing to fight they'll have no leverage with which to wield that influence. At the end of the war, someone will be in control of King's Landing, and that someone will decide who gets to be the next king. At that point, the Tyrells can either accept that decision or march on KL to get one more to their liking. Maybe it will just be the Lannisters or Stannis they face, or maybe it will be a combined force of, say, northmen and Vale or Lannisters and Dorne. By siding with the Lannisters now, the Tyrells all but ensure that there will be a young king available for Margaery, whereas all other options basically eliminate that possibility.

This is.... so wrong.  First off, the Tyrells could easily side with Robb, because I guarantee you they'll get Robb to put aside his betrothal to a Frey for the entire Reach.  So we can safely discount that entire argument.

Second, the text explicitly contradicts you.  The Martells, who not only do absolutely nothing but are actively plotting the downfall of the regime, get a royal marriage!  So you cannot make the claim that sitting out the fighting eliminates their leverage.  Geopolitically, the Tyrells will always have a ton of influence, and moreso if they had shopped their services to the highest bidder, instead of immediately falling in behind Renly.  Remember, it was very possible that Stannis would garner the support of the North, the Vale, and the Riverlands if Ned hadn't been executed (if you're looking at it from the Tyrell perspective), which means you'd once again be fighting against a superior coalition!

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

The combined Tyrell/Gardner-Hightower-Redwyne alliance has ensured that Highgarden is able to field an army that dwarfs any other single realm, and this has been the case for thousands of years. The only way Highgarden loses is through the combined efforts of multiple realms or through gross negligence on the part of leaders like Garth Greybeard. Highgarden was most definitely not "crushed" during Robert's Rebellion, in fact, it suffered virtually no losses at all and won the only serious engagement it entered, at Ashford.

Actually, the Tyrells lose at Storm's End and win a victory described as "indecisive" at Ashford, so clearly they aren't vastly more capable than any other kingdom.  But the Tyrells are clearly incapable of fighting against more than a handful of kingdoms opposed to them; they are unwilling to confront the victories alliance after Robert's Rebellion, so we must assume they would likely have lost such a fight.

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

Being on the losing side, of course, the Tyrells gained none of the spoils handed out by the winners, and in fact was stripped of lands as a condition of accepting Robert's peace. This is what happens to houses that do not back the winning side. If Highgarden had simply sat out the Wot5K, they might not have lost anything, but they certainly aren't going to gain anything at the expense of houses that risked all. That's the way it works.

Again, stop contradicting the text.  We know, for a fact, that this is not "how it works".  In fact, that seems to be how it works in the breach.  You only get punished for backing a loser; you don't get punished for not backing the winner.  The Tyrells back a rebel king with no right to the throne... and still parlay their massive numerical advantage into switching sides and gaining vast rewards.  The Martells sit out the fighting entirely, and are promised political influence and a royal marriage.  You cannot keep insisting that a House has to fight, and has to declare for someone immediately, in order to reap rewards.  Indeed, we see, consistently, that those Houses which allow their options to develop come out on top.  The Lannisters get a royal marriage after Robert's Rebellion, despite being the last major House to declare for anyone.  The Freys get Robb's hand in marriage in return for not committing too early.  The Tyrells switch over to the Lannisters WAY late and get a royal marriage and the lion's share of the spoils of war.  The Martells, a weak house to begin with, leverage their inactivity into a Small Council seat, some measure of vengeance for Elia, and a marriage to a royal princess.  The Arryns sit out the war, and as a result, aren't punished in any way, shape, or form.  So again, sitting out makes sense - the Tyrells commit very early, and still manage to figure out a way to switch sides.  Why wouldn't that be a viable option if they didn't commit Day 1 to Renly as well?

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

Lol, if the Tyrells did not come to Tywin's aid then Stannis would have taken King's Landing and every Lannister except perhaps Tommen would be dead, and he would be in exile. T

Brilliant analysis.  How the hell does it relate to anything?  This is the definition of meaningless fluff.

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

So I fail to see how the Tyrells would emerge as the arbiters of power in that case. Mace would be lucky to keep his head even after he bends the knee; he would most certainly lose even more lands and there would be no chance of putting a Tyrell on the Iron Throne.

WTF are you smoking?  Let's say Stannis wins.  And please, let's not presume Robb does a damn thing, because if anything, it's more likely he fights to remain as King in the North, since it would be politically difficult to disentangle himself from that.

So we have King Stannis, who has... almost zero support at all.  He takes Kings Landing by sheer luck (and maybe not at all, since Tywin would still make it to KL with or without the Tyrells).  He still is the weakest claimant of the throne, though he has the added legitimacy of having the capital.  The Arryns won't support him, the Lannisters and Martells won't support him, Robb and the Riverlanders are at BEST an iffy prospect.... who the hell is going to back up his regime, except the Tyrells?

And FYI, a bunch of Mace's bannermen bend the knee to Stannis after Storm's End and aren't punished in any way, so lets use the examples we have, and not make up ones to support your awful analysis.

On 1/19/2018 at 5:12 PM, John Suburbs said:

What, exactly, have the Arryns gained by sitting idle? They have just what they started with: the Vale. The Martells have Myrcella and a seat on the small council. Pretty good, but hardly the influence you get by marrying the king. And again, both of these things were the result of aligning with Tywin -- there was just no need to commit any swords to the conflict once the Tyrell deal was made.

I mean, aside from peace and security to bring in additional harvests, a major major major issue?  Nothing, I suppose.  But your explicit argument is that the Tyrells cannot sit out the war, cannot even wait to declare, without suffering the consequences (which you JUST described as being at least the loss of lands, and potentially Mace losing his head).  And I am telling you that the one fully neutral party in the WOT5K had literally zero consequences attached to their actions.

And the Martells get Myrcella and a small council seat, despite being arguably the least important, weakest region.  The Tyrells back Renly, full stop, when they could have shopped their support for a better deal.

[John Suburbs]

59 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

This is.... so wrong.  First off, the Tyrells could easily side with Robb, because I guarantee you they'll get Robb to put aside his betrothal to a Frey for the entire Reach.  So we can safely discount that entire argument.

No way. Honorable Robb Stark? Son of the honorable Ned Stark?  The only way they could pull that off is to get Margy and Robb together in such a way as to compromise Robb's honor, which would mean Margy has to cross a war zone through now-hostile Lannister-controlled territory and then seduce Robb (which the Westerlings did with the aid of a love potion). And since Robb has no interest in sitting the Iron Throne and will, at best, remain King in the North, it's hardly the prize that Tywin is dangling in front of the Tyrells: the Iron Throne.

59 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Second, the text explicitly contradicts you.  The Martells, who not only do absolutely nothing but are actively plotting the downfall of the regime, get a royal marriage!  So you cannot make the claim that sitting out the fighting eliminates their leverage.  Geopolitically, the Tyrells will always have a ton of influence, and moreso if they had shopped their services to the highest bidder, instead of immediately falling in behind Renly.  Remember, it was very possible that Stannis would garner the support of the North, the Vale, and the Riverlands if Ned hadn't been executed (if you're looking at it from the Tyrell perspective), which means you'd once again be fighting against a superior coalition!

 

Sorry, but no. The deal that Tyrion offers is this: Myrcella's hand for Prince Trystane; "justice" for Elia and her children (by which he means Gregor's head); a seat on the small council, several castles on the Dornish Marches. In return, Dorne supports House Lannister for the duration of the war -- aka, a military alliance. Doran immediately calls his banners and once Myrcella arrives in Dorne he marches his army up the boneway. Dorne is hardly sitting passive here, and is, in fact, firmly on team Lannister.

Now, you can argue that their ultimate goal is the downfall of House Lannister, but you could argue the same thing for the Tyrells as well. Dorne got its rewards by allying itself with the winner, not by doing nothing.

Aligning with Stannis is simply not an option for the Tyrells. For one thing, there is the small matter of Loras' vow to kill him on sight. Secondly, Stannis is married to a Florent, so his ascension to the IT would immediately elevate a Tyrell vassal to a superior position. And thirdly, Stannis only has a daughter, so even in the highly unlikely event that Stannis offers her hand to a Tyrell rather than to someone who had been loyal to him from the start, they only gain the Iron Throne if Stannis does not produce a son some day -- and he is still a relatively young man who will most certainly want to pass his crown to a son rather than to a house of dubious loyalty.

59 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Actually, the Tyrells lose at Storm's End and win a victory described as "indecisive" at Ashford, so clearly they aren't vastly more capable than any other kingdom.  But the Tyrells are clearly incapable of fighting against more than a handful of kingdoms opposed to them; they are unwilling to confront the victories alliance after Robert's Rebellion, so we must assume they would likely have lost such a fight.

Just to be clear: do you know what a hegemon is? It doesn't mean all-powerful; it means the dominant member of a group. Facts are facts. Throughout history the Tyrells have fielded both the largest army and the largest navy. That makes them the hegemon -- capable of dominating any single kingdom but not multiple kingdoms aligned together.

So to say that the Tyrells would have lost a battle outside Storm's End is irrelevant: Ned's army was a coalition of the North, the Vale, the Riverlands and the Stormlands -- all aligned to defeat the hegemon that was Highgarden. But the war was over, so there was no point.

59 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Again, stop contradicting the text.  We know, for a fact, that this is not "how it works".  In fact, that seems to be how it works in the breach.  You only get punished for backing a loser; you don't get punished for not backing the winner.  The Tyrells back a rebel king with no right to the throne... and still parlay their massive numerical advantage into switching sides and gaining vast rewards.  The Martells sit out the fighting entirely, and are promised political influence and a royal marriage.  You cannot keep insisting that a House has to fight, and has to declare for someone immediately, in order to reap rewards.  Indeed, we see, consistently, that those Houses which allow their options to develop come out on top.  The Lannisters get a royal marriage after Robert's Rebellion, despite being the last major House to declare for anyone.  The Freys get Robb's hand in marriage in return for not committing too early.  The Tyrells switch over to the Lannisters WAY late and get a royal marriage and the lion's share of the spoils of war.  The Martells, a weak house to begin with, leverage their inactivity into a Small Council seat, some measure of vengeance for Elia, and a marriage to a royal princess.  The Arryns sit out the war, and as a result, aren't punished in any way, shape, or form.  So again, sitting out makes sense - the Tyrells commit very early, and still manage to figure out a way to switch sides.  Why wouldn't that be a viable option if they didn't commit Day 1 to Renly as well?

Lol, I'm not saying a house has to fight, but they gain much more influence in the post-war if they are on the winning side vs remaining neutral. How can you possibly say that both the Tyrells and the Martells were able to leverage their neutrality to both receive such great rewards from the Lannisters. Neither house was neutral: they both entered military alliances with the Lannister, and were given suitable rewards.

The Lannisters were not neutral during Robert's Rebellion. They sacked KL and killed the royal family, thus ensuring victory. Plus, you have the fact that after Lyanna, there simply was no other suitable match for Robert other than Cersei.

The Freys entered into a military alliance with the north, which involved sending thousands of men and knights to help Robb win his battles. Hardly neutral.

The Arryns sit out the war, and as you say are not punished. But they are not reward either. In fact, they wind up with an upjumped nobody as their Lord Protector.

So spare me this talk about how remaining neutral gets you all the best prizes. It just doesn't happen. The winners bestow rewards on those who are loyal to them, and maybe a neutral will get a few bones, but that's it.

59 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

Brilliant analysis.  How the hell does it relate to anything?  This is the definition of meaningless fluff.

It was in response to your comment that if the Tyrells just bided their time at Bitterbridge they still would have come out ahead. This is nonsense, since Stannis would have taken King's Landing and very likely would be crowned the new king.

The fact is that the only viable path for the Tyrells to get what they truly crave -- one of their own sitting the Iron Throne -- goes through the Lannisters. They are the only ones who can deliver.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

WTF are you smoking?  Let's say Stannis wins.  And please, let's not presume Robb does a damn thing, because if anything, it's more likely he fights to remain as King in the North, since it would be politically difficult to disentangle himself from that.

So we have King Stannis, who has... almost zero support at all.  He takes Kings Landing by sheer luck (and maybe not at all, since Tywin would still make it to KL with or without the Tyrells).  He still is the weakest claimant of the throne, though he has the added legitimacy of having the capital.  The Arryns won't support him, the Lannisters and Martells won't support him, Robb and the Riverlanders are at BEST an iffy prospect.... who the hell is going to back up his regime, except the Tyrells?

And FYI, a bunch of Mace's bannermen bend the knee to Stannis after Storm's End and aren't punished in any way, so lets use the examples we have, and not make up ones to support your awful analysis.

 

Lol, he has zero support and yet in the next breath you talk about all the support he has. Being seen as the winner has a way of drawing support to your cause, as we saw. And if the next step is defeat of the Lannister army and then a peace deal with the north that has Robb recognize Stannis' claim to the throne, as Ned would have done, now he has practically the entire realm on his side, with the Vale and Dorne likely dipping their banners next.

So now you have the utterly passive Tyrells, the very last to recognize Stannis, who, by your admission cannot fight against multiple houses at once and whose scion has vowed to kill Stannis, are going to march in and start demanding all these favors from the new king? Good luck with that. Maybe they'll get some Lannister lands, but don't expect any seats on the council, and there is no way a Tyrell will be sitting the Iron Throne any time soon.

I'm truly puzzled as to why you think that aligning with the Lannisters in a deal that virtually guarantees victory and puts a Tyrell on the Iron Throne is a less palatable option that just sitting idle and maybe, if all things work out perfectly, they'll get a council seat and some lands after all the fighting is done. A few mills and maybe a temporary advisory position vs supreme, unchecked power over the entire realm. Come on, it's a no-brainer. They have to take this deal.

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

I mean, aside from peace and security to bring in additional harvests, a major major major issue?  Nothing, I suppose.  But your explicit argument is that the Tyrells cannot sit out the war, cannot even wait to declare, without suffering the consequences (which you JUST described as being at least the loss of lands, and potentially Mace losing his head).  And I am telling you that the one fully neutral party in the WOT5K had literally zero consequences attached to their actions.

And the Martells get Myrcella and a small council seat, despite being arguably the least important, weakest region.  The Tyrells back Renly, full stop, when they could have shopped their support for a better deal.

Lol, the peace and security they had at the start? Hardly a gain, is it. No, they got nothing from their neutrality. Nada. Zilch. In fact, they now have the good Lord Protector calling the shots at the Eyrie.

Sure, the Tyrells can sit out the war. But they are not going to get the ultimate prize: the Iron Throne. If they fail to support the Lannisters at this crucial moment, then King's Landing falls to Stannis and their best viable option to marry their way to the Iron Throne, Joffrey, will be dead. Now, even if Tywin somehow prevails and puts Tommen on the throne, they have to hope against hope that he will reward the house that failed to help him when he needed it most. Or maybe Robb wins in the end, and now they have to somehow get him to dishonor himself by abandoning the Freys.

This deal, at this time, was the only viable option for the Tyrells. It virtually guarantees victory and the achievement of their ultimate goal, while all other options leave everything to chance.

 

[Bernie Mac]

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is.... so wrong.  First off, the Tyrells could easily side with Robb, because I guarantee you they'll get Robb to put aside his betrothal to a Frey for the entire Reach.  So we can safely discount that entire argument.

Except Robb does not have a claim to the Iron Throne, both Renly and Joffrey do and that is what Mace is interested in. 

 If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

"They call them puff fish, Grandmother."

 

Mace had far more incentive to side with Renly or Joffrey than he did with someone like Robb as he wanted his daughter to be Queen of Westeros, something that Robb does not have a claim to while Renly, however distant, and Joffrey did. 

 

 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Second, the text explicitly contradicts you.  The Martells, who not only do absolutely nothing but are actively plotting the downfall of the regime, get a royal marriage! 

Even doing nothing during war was a huge boon for the Crown as they could have sided with Renly and truly doomed the Crown or sided with another faction, but they actually do do something as Doran accepts the alliance and moved his armies to the border. 

Once Myrcella was safe in Braavos, he had pledged to move his strength to the high passes, where the threat might make some of the Marcher lords rethink their loyalties and give Stannis pause about marching north. It was purely a feint, however. The Martells would not commit to actual battle unless Dorne itself was attacked, and Stannis was not so great a fool. Though some of his bannermen may be, Tyrion reflected. I should think on that.

 

The Martells, however small, have helped the Crown during a war and got  the King's sister as a reward. The Tyrells are not going to get a better offer in peace time having offered zero support, they need to offer something to get a superior marriage which both Joffrey and Tommen are. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

So you cannot make the claim that sitting out the fighting eliminates their leverage.

Not only can he but the books back him up on this. The Martells were rewarded for lending legitimacy to the Crown by accepting the alliance/ 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  Geopolitically, the Tyrells will always have a ton of influence,

Sure, but they want more and a there has never been a Tyrell Quenn, something that Mace lusts after. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

and moreso if they had shopped their services to the highest bidder, instead of immediately falling in behind Renly.  Remember, it was very possible that Stannis would garner the support of the North, the Vale, and the Riverlands if Ned hadn't been executed (if you're looking at it from the Tyrell perspective), which means you'd once again be fighting against a superior coalition!

How do you figure the Vale? Lysa was adamant that she was not getting involved. Nothing in the text suggests that she would have. 

And with Ned still alive, and willing to compromise for the sake of his daughters and retract his words I am not sure how you can come to the conclusion that the North would have joined Stannis. 

 

 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

The Martells sit out the fighting entirely, and are promised political influence and a royal marriage.

They made an alliance during wartime and were rewarded for it. The Tyrells would have to offer the same to get a similar reward and offer more if they want a greater reward, which Mace clearly does. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

  You cannot keep insisting that a House has to fight, and has to declare for someone immediately, in order to reap rewards. 

The Martells did declare for the Crown and they were rewarded for it. 

Stannis actually reacts to this news in ACOK

"You have a passing clever father, Devan," the king told the boy standing by his elbow. "He makes me wish I had more smugglers in my service. And fewer lords. Though you are wrong in one respect, Davos. There is a need. If I leave Storm's End untaken in my rear, it will be said I was defeated here. And that I cannot permit. Men do not love me as they loved my brothers. They follow me because they fear me . . . and defeat is death to fear. The castle must fall." His jaw ground side to side. "Aye, and quickly. Doran Martell has called his banners and fortified the mountain passes. His Dornishmen are poised to sweep down onto the Marches. 

It is also interesting that Tyrion overestimated Stannis' intelligence on this one as he did not think Stannis would so readily believe such a feint would work. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Indeed, we see, consistently, that those Houses which allow their options to develop come out on top.  The Lannisters get a royal marriage after Robert's Rebellion, despite being the last major House to declare for anyone. 

But they did declare. And if Mace wants to get something he too has to declare. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

The Freys get Robb's hand in marriage in return for not committing too early. 

And once again, they did declare. They, like the Tyrells, would have got nothing for doing nothing and may have seen rivals get the rewards they wanted. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

The Tyrells switch over to the Lannisters WAY late and get a royal marriage and the lion's share of the spoils of war.  The Martells, a weak house to begin with, leverage their inactivity into a Small Council seat, some measure of vengeance for Elia, and a marriage to a royal princess.  The Arryns sit out the war, and as a result, aren't punished in any way, shape, or form.  So again, sitting out makes sense -

It makes sense if the Lord of the House was more pragmatic. Mace is not, he wants his daughter to be Queen so he needs to pick a side and a side with a claim to the Throne. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

 

the Tyrells commit very early, and still manage to figure out a way to switch sides.  Why wouldn't that be a viable option if they didn't commit Day 1 to Renly as well?

On day one they had no idea how long the war would last. The reality is that it should have been a slam dunk for Renly, but he was taken down by magic. 

8 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Brilliant analysis.  How the hell does it relate to anything?  This is the definition of meaningless fluff.

The Tyrells do nothing and they lose out

1) Stannis becomes King and the Florents become more dominant

2) Joffrey remains King and he marries Sansa or another loyalist and Mace misses out on his his prize

3) The Crown wins and the Martells, thanks to their small support, rise above the Tyrells thanks to their marriage to the Kings daughter

4) The Crown agrees a peace with the Stannis/the Florents and marries Tommen to Shireen

 

There is ample reason for the Tyrells to act after Bittherbridge. Doing nothing, while the safe option, is not the ambitious one. 

 

 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

snip

All true. Every word.

This goes back to my original comment on this thread that Tywin did have some leverage when it came time to treat with the Tyrells: he is the only one who can deliver what they've been craving for years: a Tyrell sitting the Iron Throne.

 

[cpg2016]

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

No way. Honorable Robb Stark? Son of the honorable Ned Stark?  The only way they could pull that off is to get Margy and Robb together in such a way as to compromise Robb's honor, which would mean Margy has to cross a war zone through now-hostile Lannister-controlled territory and then seduce Robb (which the Westerlings did with the aid of a love potion). And since Robb has no interest in sitting the Iron Throne and will, at best, remain King in the North, it's hardly the prize that Tywin is dangling in front of the Tyrells: the Iron Throne.

This is highly debatable.  What wins out?  His desire to protect his people, or his honor?  As we see, "honorable" Ned Stark is no such thing when he lies to protect his children.  I think it highly likely Robb finds a way to put aside his Frey betrothed for Margaery, not least because Walder heavily hinted in the first place that he would have settled for Edmure.

And the question isn't whether the Tyrells are more interested inthe Iron Throne or having Margaery be Robb's queen - your opinion on this is unimportant, because the text tells us it's a possibility.  Tywin himself worries that the Northerners may be able to sway the Tyrells.  That's canon.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but no. The deal that Tyrion offers is this: Myrcella's hand for Prince Trystane; "justice" for Elia and her children (by which he means Gregor's head); a seat on the small council, several castles on the Dornish Marches. In return, Dorne supports House Lannister for the duration of the war -- aka, a military alliance. Doran immediately calls his banners and once Myrcella arrives in Dorne he marches his army up the boneway. Dorne is hardly sitting passive here, and is, in fact, firmly on team Lannister.

So, the Martells get all that and a bag of chips... and do nothing.  Doran calls his banners and does nothing.  And gets all those rewards!  Tyrion buys Dornish neutrality, not Dornish support.  Dorne doesn't do a damn thing the entire war, and still gets all the rewards they were promised - which means they fulfilled their end of the bargain.  Which was, to not fight the Lannisters, and nothing more.  Again, they get a ton, for doing nothing.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Aligning with Stannis is simply not an option for the Tyrells. For one thing, there is the small matter of Loras' vow to kill him on sight.

Stop confusing the timeline.  This is only after the Tyrells back Renly, in the most clearly illegal power grab of the entire series.  As I've said before, what they should have done was back Stannis immediately.  Moreover, Renly also vows to kill Brienne and decides not to, so it's not like this is some unbreakable oath.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

And thirdly, Stannis only has a daughter, so even in the highly unlikely event that Stannis offers her hand to a Tyrell rather than to someone who had been loyal to him from the start, they only gain the Iron Throne if Stannis does not produce a son some day -- and he is still a relatively young man who will most certainly want to pass his crown to a son rather than to a house of dubious loyalty.

But in this scenario the Tyrells have been loyal from the start.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Just to be clear: do you know what a hegemon is? It doesn't mean all-powerful; it means the dominant member of a group. Facts are facts. Throughout history the Tyrells have fielded both the largest army and the largest navy. That makes them the hegemon -- capable of dominating any single kingdom but not multiple kingdoms aligned together.

So to say that the Tyrells would have lost a battle outside Storm's End is irrelevant: Ned's army was a coalition of the North, the Vale, the Riverlands and the Stormlands -- all aligned to defeat the hegemon that was Highgarden. But the war was over, so there was no point.

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove.  Your original point was that if the Tyrells had sat out the war, they would have gained nothing.  This is explicitly untrue; they don't have to fight to gain something, as the Martells conclusively prove.  Moreover, while the Reach has held hegemonic power for a long time, the Tyrells have not.  There is an important difference there, one which the text lampshades.  The Tyrells don't have the historical authority of the Arryns or Starks or Lannisters, and it shows in the fact that the Reach is prone to fracture more than almost any other kingdom.

And we know the numbers of Ned's forces, or at least an outside maximum, and they are MUCH smaller than what we know the Reach can raise.  Less than 40,000 men fight at the Trident, of which presumably some die or are left at Kings Landing, so it's almost certain they were outnumbered by the Tyrells.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Lol, I'm not saying a house has to fight, but they gain much more influence in the post-war if they are on the winning side vs remaining neutral. How can you possibly say that both the Tyrells and the Martells were able to leverage their neutrality to both receive such great rewards from the Lannisters. Neither house was neutral: they both entered military alliances with the Lannister, and were given suitable rewards.

The Martells do nothing.  Get off this.  We know both explicitly from the text, and implicitly from what the text doesn't say, that the Dornish do literally nothing; Doran calls his banners and sits in the passes.  Their only "contribution" to the war is by remaining neutral.  If the Martells, the weakest great House, can get a royal marriage and a small council seat, it makes perfect sense that the Tyrells could have demanded a better royal marriage and greater rewards commensurate with their greater power.  If we take what the Martells got as a baseline for what Tyrell neutrality would have netted them, then fighting actually does the Tyrells no good at all.  Geopolitically, it makes sense as well.  

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Lannisters were not neutral during Robert's Rebellion. They sacked KL and killed the royal family, thus ensuring victory. Plus, you have the fact that after Lyanna, there simply was no other suitable match for Robert other than Cersei.

The Lannisters were neutral during Robert's Rebellion.  Victory was ensured before the sack of Kings Landing.  At the Trident.  Tywin sacks Kings Landing and kills the royal family explicitly because he was neutral, and needed to prove his loyalty.  He says it himself.

And nothing says Robert had to marry a Lannister or a Paramount House.  It makes a lot of sense, but is in no way required.  You can even argue that Lyanna herself would have been a bad match, since House Stark was already loyal.  Robert could easily have married a Hightower, or a Redwyne, or a Florent, or any powerful Reach House, the same way Stannis did, to undermine the unity of the Reach.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Freys entered into a military alliance with the north, which involved sending thousands of men and knights to help Robb win his battles. Hardly neutral.

The Freys are feudally obligated to come aid their lord, Hoster (or Edmure, in this case), and don't do so.  Because of their disloyalty and unwillingness to commit, they have the necessary forces at the Twins to prevent Robb from merely sacking it and moving on if he has to.  In other words, keeping their forces back allows them to negotiate the best deal of any party in the entire war!  Again, its blowing my mind how bad you are at keeping track of the chronology; the Freys get all these great rewards for their service specifically because they hold back at first and don't commit; every other lord with Robb sends thousands of men and knights and doesn't get a double royal marriage.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

The Arryns sit out the war, and as you say are not punished. But they are not reward either. In fact, they wind up with an upjumped nobody as their Lord Protector.

Right, because they don't actually end up selling their neutrality for anything.  That being said, if the downside of not fighting is coming out relatively ahead (no harvests lost, no lords or peasants killed) then that's not too shabby.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

So spare me this talk about how remaining neutral gets you all the best prizes. It just doesn't happen. The winners bestow rewards on those who are loyal to them, and maybe a neutral will get a few bones, but that's it.

Who comes out the best in the Wot5K?  The Tyrells who declared for a rebel, and the Martells, who remained neutral.  If the Tyrells can declare for a pretender and still manage to come out ahead, then why the hell should they declare at all?  It is objectively, incontrovertibly better for them to have done nothing, and fought for no one, and then allied with the Lannisters, than to have actively sided with Renly and switched over later.  They don't even betray Renly!

And the Martells commit to nothing more than not actively working against the Lannisters, and get showered with rewards.  I won't spare you any talk, because you are wrong!  We KNOW the Martells don't fight for the Lannnisters.  We KNOW the Tyrells fight against the Lannisters.  

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Lol, the peace and security they had at the start? Hardly a gain, is it. No, they got nothing from their neutrality. Nada. Zilch. In fact, they now have the good Lord Protector calling the shots at the Eyrie.

As I said, they don't negotiate for more.  This goes to what Balon does, and to quote the Christopher Nolan Joker, "if you're good at something, never do it for free".  The Martells understand this; they extract a price for their neutrality.  If Lysa Arryn wasn't listening to someone actively interested in destabilizing the realm, she could have easily done the same.

On 1/22/2018 at 1:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Sure, the Tyrells can sit out the war. But they are not going to get the ultimate prize: the Iron Throne. If they fail to support the Lannisters at this crucial moment, then King's Landing falls to Stannis and their best viable option to marry their way to the Iron Throne, Joffrey, will be dead. Now, even if Tywin somehow prevails and puts Tommen on the throne, they have to hope against hope that he will reward the house that failed to help him when he needed it most.

Tywin knows he needs the Reach, which is why he allies with them despite their active treason!  You keep ignoring the fact that the Tyrells declare themselves as actively hostile to the Lannister regime, and pledge to support a king who will obviously murder Cersei and her kids.  And they are still welcomed with open arms.

What the Tyrells should do is sit out the war until they see which way the winds are blowing, and then step in.  Like the Freys do.  Like the Tyrells eventually do.  They wait until they have the most possible leverage and then strike their deal.  

[cpg2016]

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Except Robb does not have a claim to the Iron Throne, both Renly and Joffrey do and that is what Mace is interested in. 

When Mace supports Renly, he does it knowing he's backing an illegal pretender.  He also backs Joffrey, knowing Joffrey has no claim.  Try again; he could ally with Robb and have himself crowned King if he wanted, and let the North go it's own way.  All of the candidates Mace backs, he backs knowing they are illegitimate.

And even if all that wasn't true, we also know that Tywin, the arch-pragmatist, thinks there is a real possibility that the Tyrells jump ship to the Starks, which is why he goes to such lengths to placate them.

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

The Martells, however small, have helped the Crown during a war and got  the King's sister as a reward. The Tyrells are not going to get a better offer in peace time having offered zero support, they need to offer something to get a superior marriage which both Joffrey and Tommen are. 

So why can't the Tyrells commit to the exact same thing?  They get a superior reward because their promise of neutrality is worth a lot more than the Martells', because they are commensurately more powerful.

Besides, who is Joffrey going to marry?  This is the same shit as Cersei and Robert - there isn't another viable candidate, and they'll throw Sansa over in a hot second and give her to Tyrion, same as in OTL.

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Not only can he but the books back him up on this. The Martells were rewarded for lending legitimacy to the Crown by accepting the alliance/ 

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I will repeat: the Martells get castles, positions of influence, and an extremely influential marriage, in return for not actively fighting the Lannisters.  It makes perfect sense that the Tyrells will get all that, but better of everything (better small council seats, better castles, better marriages) by doing exactly the same thing, simply by virtue of the fact that they are many times more powerful than the Martells.

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

And once again, they did declare. They, like the Tyrells, would have got nothing for doing nothing and may have seen rivals get the rewards they wanted. 

How are you missing this?  The Freys shouldn't even have an option - they are feudally obligated to "declare" against the Lannisters the moment Edmure calls his banners.  They don't; they wait.  And explicitly because of that, they have an army in place to block Robb from crossing at the Twins, and can negotiate an amazing deal.  

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

It makes sense if the Lord of the House was more pragmatic. Mace is not, he wants his daughter to be Queen so he needs to pick a side and a side with a claim to the Throne. 

He picked the wrong side and still got his daughter on the Iron Throne.  He actually picks the two sides in thi fight with no claim (or no primary claim, at least, since Renly does have a claim), and he does so in full knowledge that Stannis is the rightful heir.

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

On day one they had no idea how long the war would last. The reality is that it should have been a slam dunk for Renly, but he was taken down by magic. 

Actually, he was taken down because he was, as Catelyn says, "a knight of summer".  If he had marched straight for Kings Landing instead of tarrying and playing at tourney, he would have won.

On 1/22/2018 at 9:07 PM, Bernie Mac said:

The Tyrells do nothing and they lose out

1) Stannis becomes King and the Florents become more dominant

2) Joffrey remains King and he marries Sansa or another loyalist and Mace misses out on his his prize

3) The Crown wins and the Martells, thanks to their small support, rise above the Tyrells thanks to their marriage to the Kings daughter

4) The Crown agrees a peace with the Stannis/the Florents and marries Tommen to Shireen

There is ample reason for the Tyrells to act after Bittherbridge. Doing nothing, while the safe option, is not the ambitious one. 

Lets say Stannis becomes king.  Play it out.  Who does he marry Shireen off to?  Not a Lannister.  Maybe Trystane Martell.  No Greyjoys.  The Starks are all "dead".  Robert Arryn, I guess?  There aren't many options, and he needs the Tyrells.

If the goal is to get Margaery as Queen, then yes, after Renly's assassination they maybe need to commit.  But again, there aren't many options.  But who is Joffrey going to marry, if he wins?  Sansa?  Almost certainly not.  She's being shuffled off to Tyrion no matter what.  Not another Martell, for sure, not with Myrcella marrying Trystane.  There is no other real options except for Margaery.

#4 is an impossibility; this is proposed in-universe and Stannis executes the man who proposes it.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

When Mace supports Renly, he does it knowing he's backing an illegal pretender. 

He also does it knowing that he has a legitimate claim to the throne, a claim weaker than his nephew's and brother, but a claim nontheless. 

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He also backs Joffrey, knowing Joffrey has no claim. 

No he does not. Renly and his faction are brutally honest with them usurping the throne from Joffrey. To them he was the legal heir. 

He knows of rumours Stannis spread, without evidence, after Robert was dead and both Renly and Robb had already crowned themselves. Most people don't assume every opportunistic rumour they hear is fact. 

If you have some evidence from the books that Mace believes that Joffrey had no claim then I would love to hear it. I am not going to take your rumour that he did as fact. 

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Try again; he could ally with Robb and have himself crowned King if he wanted, and let the North go it's own way. 

He has no claim to the throne. Olenna makes it clear that his son wants legitimacy. 

If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son.

 

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All of the candidates Mace backs, he backs knowing they are illegitimate.

Nope.  Joffrey is the legal heir of Robert Baratheon. Renly, though weak, has a legitimate claim. 

I'm sorry but you continuously misunderstand the difference between being an heir and having a claim. 

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And even if all that wasn't true, we also know that Tywin, the arch-pragmatist, thinks there is a real possibility that the Tyrells jump ship to the Starks, which is why he goes to such lengths to placate them.

Where does he ever mention them jumping ship to the Starks? I think you are confusing Tyrion for Tywin as Tywin was never worried about the Tyrells linking up with the Starks. In fact he is pretty secure in the alliances in the South

"Our alliances in the south may be as solid as Casterly Rock, but there remains the north to win, and the key to the north is Sansa Stark."

But to answer your second point there are obvious reasons why Tywin would want to appease the Tyrells. 

"I have considered the Redwyne twins, Theon Greyjoy, Quentyn Martell, and a number of others. But our alliance with Highgarden was the sword that broke Stannis."

Losing the Tyrells means losing the Reach, given Dorne, the Vale, the Riverlands, Iron Islands and North less reason to obey the Crown. With them there can be peace, without them it would be an endless struggle for power. 

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So why can't the Tyrells commit to the exact same thing?

Because there is only one legitimate daughter of Robert Baratheon?

And they don't want the same thing, they want more. They want more power and influence than the Martells got out of their agreement and they achieved it. 

Mace did more because he wanted more. 

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 They get a superior reward because their promise of neutrality is worth a lot more than the Martells', because they are commensurately more powerful.

Mace wanted his daughter to be the Queen. He was not going to get that sitting on his arse. 

The Crown presented Mace an offer to good for him to turn down, all he had to do was join the Crown. The Battle of Blackwater was a one sided rout, Mace even complains there was not enough victories for him. He made an incrediably sweet deal which he was handsomely rewarded for. 

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Besides, who is Joffrey going to marry?

He is already betrothed to the heiress of the North.

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This is the same shit as Cersei and Robert - there isn't another viable candidate, and they'll throw Sansa over in a hot second and give her to Tyrion, same as in OTL.

eh? Joffrey is already betrothed. If the price for the Tyrells sitting on their ass and doing nothing is Tommen then so be it, there is little reason to break the marriage to the heiress of the North and possibly Riverlands. 

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I will repeat: the Martells get castles, positions of influence, and an extremely influential marriage, in return for not actively fighting the Lannisters.

And the Tyrells got Brightwater Keep, a castle and lands more magnificent than anything the Dornish received, castles and lands for all their prominent supporters, Margaery got to be Queen, and Mace, Redywne, Tyrell and Rowan all got places on the Small Council and all they had to do for that was move the army they had already raised from Bitterbridge to Kings Landing. 

It was a sweet deal. 

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It makes perfect sense that the Tyrells will get all that, but better of everything (better small council seats, better castles, better marriages) by doing exactly the same thing, simply by virtue of the fact that they are many times more powerful than the Martells.

The Martells got one seat. Why would the Tyrells get more than one seat for doing nothing?

And as pointed out, Mace, according to his mother, wanted his daughter to be Queen. No one was offering that deal for him to sit on his ass to do nothing. 

He took the incredibly sweet deal he was offered. 

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How are you missing this?

Missing what? I think you have misread what I have wrote as I dont understand the context of your (3 week late) reply. 

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He picked the wrong side and still got his daughter on the Iron Throne.  He actually picks the two sides in thi fight with no claim (or no primary claim, at least, since Renly does have a claim), and he does so in full knowledge that Stannis is the rightful heir.

Joffrey is the legal and acknowledged heir of Robert Baratheon in Westeros. Mace does not have the benefit of the books infront of him 

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Actually, he was taken down because he was, as Catelyn says, "a knight of summer".  If he had marched straight for Kings Landing instead of tarrying and playing at tourney, he would have won.

What? Stannis would have let him be King and not use his magical deus ex machina to cheat?

Well shit, if only someone had told Renly that. 

And Renly was being smart. His whole host had not yet arrived, he was still waiting for another 10k from Highgarden all the while two of the other Kings were weakening themselves fighting each other. Cat is a smart character in many ways, but it seems painfully obvious that she did not understand what was happening. 

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Lets say Stannis becomes king.  Play it out.  Who does he marry Shireen off to?  Not a Lannister. 

Shireen is 10 years away from being married. There are other Lannisters apart from Tywin's children, one of them likely being the new ruler/heir of Casterly Rock. 

There is every chance it could be a Lannister

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Maybe Trystane Martell.  No Greyjoys.  The Starks are all "dead".  Robert Arryn, I guess?  There aren't many options, and he needs the Tyrells.

Of course there are many options. Cersie Lannister was only the second ever Queen who was the daughter of a Great Lord. 

If Stannis did not feel he needed to play politics and offer the Tyrells something while he was fighting to be King why do you think he'd do so once he actually sat the Crown?

 

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If the goal is to get Margaery as Queen, then yes, after Renly's assassination they maybe need to commit. 

And that is what happened. Why is this even a discussion? 

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But again, there aren't many options.  But who is Joffrey going to marry, if he wins?  Sansa?  Almost certainly not.

Tywin would certainly be ok with it. She has a decent claim to both the North and the Riverlands while being a cousin of the current Lord of the Vale. 

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She's being shuffled off to Tyrion no matter what.  Not another Martell, for sure, not with Myrcella marrying Trystane.  There is no other real options except for Margaery.

There are more options than simply the Great Houses. 

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#4 is an impossibility; this is proposed in-universe and Stannis executes the man who proposes it.

Can Mace see into the future? If Lord Florent thinks it was a possibility then why would Mace not? It was sensible option to take. 

[The hairy bear]

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is highly debatable.  What wins out?  His desire to protect his people, or his honor? 

Well, we know that honor wins in Robb's case. He chose Jeyne Westerling over Walder Frey and his six thousand men.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

If the goal is to get Margaery as Queen, then yes, after Renly's assassination they maybe need to commit.  But again, there aren't many options.  But who is Joffrey going to marry, if he wins?  Sansa? 

You seem to assume that the only viable options are daughters of great lords. It is not the case, at all. Even the Targaryens, who considered themselves a separate god-like race, married many ladies from second-rate houses. In many ways its preferable, since her families demands will be more manageable, the queen won't have split loyalties, and you undermine the power of the great families (that, after all, are the most likely to overthrow you if that had to happen).

And there's also the option of marrying a noble from the free cities, just as many Targs had done in the past.

In fact, marrying a daughter from a great house it's only something that you would only do if you were really desperate.

There is no way that Joffrey had married Margaery if the Lannisters didn't need their troops.

4 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Lets say Stannis becomes king.  Play it out.  Who does he marry Shireen off to?  Not a Lannister.  Maybe Trystane Martell.  No Greyjoys.  The Starks are all "dead".  Robert Arryn, I guess?  There aren't many options, and he needs the Tyrells.

Again, you are assuming that only a son from a great house is viable, when that's far from correct.

Stannis is someone who does not compromise. He will break before bending. I don't see him marrying his daughter in exchange for a military support he is already convinced that he deserves. He didn't attempt to marry her to any supporter during the war of the five kings, when he was in dire need of help. So he wouldn't do it once he was seating in the Iron Throne no matter what.

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

snip

Sorry, this thread is so old that I'm not sure what the point of most of my comments were, so if I miss the mark, please accept my apologies.

Robb is not likely to betray the Freys. The only reason he did so was because he was drugged, with a love potion no less. The are no negotiations and no contact between the Tyrells and the Starks, not is there likely to be. Remember, at this point, the Tyrells are operating under the assumption that Renly was killed by Catelyn Stark and the Mad Maid of Tarth. So, no, they are not likely to reach out for a Stark reliance, nor would they welcome one if Robb reached out to them.

The Martells did not do nothing; they chose sides. They committed themselves to the Lannister cause and promised to support them militarily. Just because the war evolved so that it was best for the Martells to stay put does not mean they did nothing. They would have got nothing if anyone by the Lannisters were in control of King's Landing when the fighting was done.

The offer of an alliance and marriage came after Renly was killed and most of his bannermen went over to Stannis. This is after Loras goes bananas and kills Royce and someone else I can't remember, and he knows Stannis was ultimately behind the murder and is in no way, shape or form going to agree to an alliance. And as Baelish correctly points out, Mace will do nothing against his favorite son's wishes.

In what way have the Tyrells been loyal from the start? The marched with Renly and were about to stomp Stannis and his army into the dust if Melisandre hadn't sent a shadow baby.

The Tyrells may not have to fight depending on how the war unfolds. But they do have to align themselves with right house at the right time if they expect to receive the highest prize in the land: Joffrey's hand. Tywin's need will never be greater than it is right now. He must get to King's Landing in time to prevent the fall of the city and the execution of his family. If they refuse to help him, then either Joffrey will be dead and there is no one for Margaery to be queen to (since we've already ruled out Robb), or if Tywin somehow prevails he will no longer be in dire need of Tyrell help because he has Dornish spears on his side already. He may still want an alliance with Highgarden to defeat Robb, but the Tyrells are no longer in the strong position they once were because the imminent threat, Stannis, has been removed. When you have a strong hand that gets you all that you have been striving for over the years, you play it. You don't fold now hoping for an even stronger hand in the future because it is very unlikely that you'll get it.

There was no other suitable match for Robert. If he had married someone from a lesser house, it would have weakened the realm and left a wedge between him and the westerlands. Perhaps at the end of the Five Kings War the same calculation would have applied to the Tyrells, but why take that chance when you are guaranteed to have the Iron Throne with the deal that Tywin is offering right now?

Dorne is not neutral. Get off this. They are allied with House Lannister. That's the fact.

Do the Freys not answer the call? I don't think the text says either way. But let's assume they don't, in keeping with their tradition. This in no way affects Walder's ability to negotiate a marriage with Robb. He would need to send ao few thousand men to Edmure, which would leave plenty of defenses for the Twins, and Robb needs to get through quickly, not settle down for a long siege. So either way, Walder has leverage over Robb. If he did not answer when Edmure calls the banners, then they would expect to get nothing from the Tullys should they emerge as the eventual winners.

The Tyrells do not want to come out "relatively ahead." They want their blood sitting the Iron Throne, and the only person who can make that happen, the only one how is right here, right now offering just that, is Tywin Lannister.

Once again, it's all a matter of when you cut a deal, and with whom. The Tyrells have plenty of leverage when it comes to negotiating, as you say, by their size. But Tywin is not without leverage of his own: He is the only one dangling the top prize in front of their noses. They'd be fools not to take it.

Yes, the Tyrells were planning on crushing Tywin and his army. And then the game changed. Tywin needed the Tyrells to help win the war, the Tyrells needed Tywin to put one of their own on the Iron Throne. Nobody else in theater could offer the same deal to the Tyrells. It wasn't just their best option, it was their only option.