Ethelarion

NO WOW SPOILERS- Why is the consensus that Euron will win Old Town?

26 posts in this topic

Bran had a vision of the sea rising over the walls of Winterfell and drowning several men.  That vision was a metaphor for the Ironborn climbing the walls of Winterfell and killing those men.

Melisandre has a vision: "Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. "  Stannis asks her if it was Eastwatch, she thought the tower in her vision was different.

A rising tide in a vision has already been used to represent the Ironborn, and the High Tower and House Hightower are both located in Old Town, and the Ironborn are attacking ships near Old Town.  From that it's not unreasonable to suspect that the Ironborn will either raid Old Town or kill some important Hightowers.

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@Ethelarion 

While I'm not sure if Euron himself will visit Oldtown before he makes his play for Kings Landing, there is certainly much to offer the Iron King around the mouth of the Honeywine. I imagine a visit to the lands of the Hightowers would be in his plans at one point down the line.

The collection of books, scrolls, incantations and who knows what else in the Citadel alone would surely wet the appetite of a man with such an interest in power, sorcery and rare trinkets.

While the Iron Born taking the Arbor will certainly provide both great riches and political weight, the Citadel, Hightower or Starry Sept could potentially give Euron access to the kind of knowledge and magical ability that he clearly wants. Assuming at least a few of his tales of "Asshai, Valyria and everywhere else" are true, who's to say Greyjoy's thirst for ultimate power stopped when he acquired Dragonbinder? 

That said, if Euron does get hold of a dragon then who knows what he might do - alighting atop the Hightower would be a quite the dramatic statement for a would be King.

One other thing to keep in mind is Euron's talk of "charnel pits and Him"; if Crow's Eye does plan/predict some eventual apocalyptic event, the negative public reaction from sacking a big, populated City like Oldtown might not really matter to the Iron King - especially if he has a dragon.

Edited by Leo of House Cartel

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7 hours ago, Ethelarion said:

@Lord Varys

i don't see Euron or Cercei wanting an alliance for several reasons. Cercei, although dilusional, must realise her position is significantly weaker than the Tyrells'. The  Reach can answer a Euron-Cercei alliance by invading the Westerlands by the 40k around Hightower/Brightwater. They are at war with the IB. If Cercei would align with Euron the Reach have Casus Belli to take KL and the Westerlands in one fell swoop. Also Euron would lose two possible targets by marrying Cercei while gaining barely anything. He can't act towards Dorne since Cercei would never sacrifice Mycella and the Westerlands are his allies then. Euron also likely loses the possible alliance with Dany. He gains nothing except legitimacy, something he is unlikely to value. 

The idea is that this alliance between Cersei and Euron happens after Tommen/Myrcella are dead or deposed, and Aegon on the Iron Throne. With her alliance with the Tyrells broken and her children either dead or in great danger, Cersei will need new allies. The West on its own can cause problems for Aegon but they can't hope to win a war all by themselves.

And if Cersei flees the city she will very likely flee via ship. She can't hope to reach the West overland - she would have to cross the Riverlands, and she would risk that Mace/Aegon/whoever catches her before she reaches her own lands. But if she takes a ship and intends to go back home she'll have to cross waters now controlled by Euron.

I expect them to meet on the Arbor, and to make their pact and celebrate their marriage there. It will be mad pact by two mad people - and they will both use the other, of course. Euron wants Dany - Cersei will be just a placeholder - while Cersei is likely going to try to use Euron simply to see all her enemies suffer and die horrible deaths. Should her children be dead by then there won't be anything holding Cersei back, and she will do everything in her power to strike back at them.

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16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect Cersei and Euron to marry after she escapes KL (prior/during Aegon's rise to power) and then the West will declare for Euron/Cersei.

<snip

They consider it. They are cautious, check the ships coming in, build war ships, and prepare for war. They know that Euron is a main threat.

I could see that happening, and it has the potential to turn the fortune from Maggy on its head. Or perhaps turn the readers on our respective heads. 

Considering it and believing they'll fail are still different things. You always prepare for war as if you could lose, to try and ensure that you don't. Doesn't mean you believe the other guy is going to win. There's always somebody on the losing side who didn't see it coming. We don't know who that is yet in this particular skirmish.

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6 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Considering it and believing they'll fail are still different things. You always prepare for war as if you could lose, to try and ensure that you don't. Doesn't mean you believe the other guy is going to win. There's always somebody on the losing side who didn't see it coming. We don't know who that is yet in this particular skirmish.

What we know from the sample chapter indicates 

Spoiler

that the Hightower fleet joining the Redwyne fleet in their fight against the Ironborn will witness whatever ritual/spell Euron is going to create to destroy the Redwynes. The people seeing this will lose all hope to oppose such a man. I assume the spell will create some of storm that will destroy the Redwyne fleet. We know from the winds Melisandre created to get Stannis' fleet to the Wall that blood magic can do that, and the only difference between Mel's wind and Euron's storm should be the intensity and the fact that he'll use it to destroy his enemies.

And that's why Oldtown is likely going to yield rather than force Euron to actually try to conquer them. Once they see what Euron Greyjoy can do people will be terrified. The word of what he did - the word of what he is capable - will ensure that many people won't oppose him. Especially if he actually ends offering them favorable terms.

That is the way to rule. Show no mercy against people opposing you - like Aegon did at Harrenhal or Tywin at Castamere - but welcome those men back into the King's Peace who bend their knee.

It will, of course, be madness to trust Euron but the man knows how to play the game and pretend he can be reasoned with. At this point 

Spoiler

only Aeron and the reader know how fucked up this guy is.

There were hints in that direction in AFfC, sure, but they were subtle and it is quite clear that Victarion and many other Ironborn have no real idea what kind of person their new king actually is.

Edited by Lord Varys

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@Lord Varys

It’s a very interesting theory. Oldtown and the Citadel are clearly going to play a central role in future books:

1) Samwell is going to be a novice there.

2) Sarella is up to something there.

3) Jaquen is up to something there.

4) There’s a whole lot of evidence that the Maesters have their own agenda, and are actively working against any Targaryen restoration, and anything to do with magic.

Have you considered the implications of the Hightowers switching allegiances to Euron with regards to all these?

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