Jump to content
Davjos

NO WOW SPOILERS- Why is the consensus that Euron will win Old Town?

Recommended Posts

I would start to say I have not read any of the WOW chapters released and if the answer to these questions is contained in those chapters I'm sorry for posting a useless topic. 

 

As a long-time lurker on this beloved forum I've seen many people state that Euron will take/sack Old Town or at least do some serious damage to the city/the Hightowers. Although the pressing danger to Old Town is a very interesting plot (IMO) I do not understand where this 'faith' in Euron's skill comes from. Conquering a city by water is always difficult. Especially a city as wealthy (thus well equipped) and populous (thus 40K people throwing rocks or bolts) as Old Town. It has serious tactical advantages, namely it's fortified position and the fact that a lack of supply over water is of less importance since they have access to the Honeywine and the fertile Reach lands. An extensive siege would definitely end in a victory of the Reach. If the Iron Born are trapped on the Whispering Sound by the Redwyne Fleet the demise of Euron's Fleet is almost inevitable. 

 

Although we've seen Euron's being a great captain of a single ship, and a smart strategist by surprising the Lannisters in Lannisport during the Uprising, we've never seen any significant battle tactics of him. His only strategy is: surprise. He surprised Balon, the Shields, Victarion (although his own shadow could surprise a man as thick as him;)) The assumption is made that he would crush Redwyne in a naval battle, but even that is not an absolute certainty. And without the Redwyne Fleet Old Town should be capable of holding out long enough before Euron loses face and power or someone aiding Old Town  

His proven magical capabilities thus far extend to taking hallucinogenic drugs. 

 

Old Town on the other hand has the (potential) numbers, the wealth to acquire sellswords, Hightower connections in the Free Cities, a significant academic advantage and a more reliable source of mystical powers in the Citadel and perhaps Leyton or the Mad Maid. They have strong leadership in Breakspear and Garth Greysteel. They have connections to the Tyrells, Florents, Rowans, Ambrose, Redwyne and Fossoways. 

 

I'm not claiming Euron will lose. I just think that Euron sinking to the bottom of the Whispering Sound in his Valyrian Steel armour is just as likely as Old Town burning down. Am I missing something? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I was afraid the TWOW were responsible for this believe in Euron. Feel free to mention that in this topic. Since I watched that which cannot be named before reading the books I don't mind a small spoiler so much as I don't want to read what is probably the best (because GGRM already wrote it) chapters of the next books. 

So if you have the answer @The Fattest Leech feel free to mention it. 

Edited by Ethelarion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Ethelarion, I'm new too. I read the sample chapters and it really doesn't say he will take OT so I mean I think you are ok there :-). You will probably get a ton of responses without spoilers so no worries. 

I'm a lurker too, and I think that we kind of expect him to take OT because we need him around in the books to make trouble. That's not the most insightful response I know but I think that is what it is. He definitely has some magic in him or the ability to manipulate it but I think he's just an opportunistic conquerer. And his decks are blood red right? He's probably using blood magic and not just the shade of the evening so there's something. 

Also, shouldn't the Tyrells and Co all be at Dragonstone? And it would take some time for OT to acquire sellswords with the battle of Mereen happening and the Golden Company landing in Westeros already. Who would they be able to call to help? This is a great question. I never really questioned Euron's ability to take OT. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

There is no such consensus and it is not likely that Euron will care to sack or conquer Oldtown.

Should Euron crush the Redwyne fleet somehow - and I think he'll do that - he'll have the defenseless Arbor, a much better and more juicy fruit than Oldtown - as rich (or even richer in its totality) as Oldtown but also an island, which means the Ironborn can conquer and keep it considering that they will 'rule the waves' like some other islanders in the real world did in the early modern days...

And what do people do if there is an armada out in the sea cutting off and controlling trade? They surrender to the British Ironborn Empire. That is why Oldtown will bend the knee, just like the Chinese gave Hong Kong to the British, the Spaniards Gibraltar, the Indians, well, India, etc. The Reach men know what they have to do when the Ironborn hold all the cards. Oldtown cannot prosper if the Ironborn control the seas around their city.

Even if Euron sacked Oldtown he would just risk losing half or more of his troops and most definitely lose any chance to win allies and make friends in the green lands. The man wants the Iron Throne. You cannot take - and hope to keep - the Iron Throne against the people of the Reach. That's impossible.

And, quite frankly, you are right - I don't see a chance of Euron actually taking Oldtown by force. The City Watch should already make up a decent fraction of Euron's Ironborn - the Iron Fleet is with Victarion, and another portion of Euron's forces remain behind on the Shields - but the people of Oldtown are only a fraction of Hightower power. They should be able to marshal tens of thousands of people, if even a fraction of them is in Oldtown then there is no chance that Euron could take the city keep it.

The Redwynes will see his crow's eye during the coming battle, but the people of the Arbor and Oldtown are likely to see his smiling eye again - in combination with the knowledge and a little taste of what the crow's eye is going to do to them if they fail, betray, or oppose him.

Euron is no moron. He can smile when he has too. Only very few people know what this man actually is. And those are either all on the Silence or dead - they are not in Oldtown or on the Arbor.

Edited by Lord Varys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ethelarion said:

I was afraid the TWOW were responsible for this believe in Euron. Feel free to mention that in this topic. Since I watched that which cannot be named before reading the books I don't mind a small spoiler so much as I don't want to read what is probably the best (because GGRM already wrote it) chapters of the next books. 

So if you have the answer @The Fattest Leech feel free to mention it. 

I am swimming in a pint at the moment, so I’ll have to get back to you later, but by sheer coincidence earlier today I was rereading that TWOW chapter and there could be some clues there. 

Or not :dunno:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ethelarion said:

I was afraid the TWOW were responsible for this believe in Euron. Feel free to mention that in this topic. Since I watched that which cannot be named before reading the books I don't mind a small spoiler so much as I don't want to read what is probably the best (because GGRM already wrote it) chapters of the next books. 

So if you have the answer @The Fattest Leech feel free to mention it. 

Also, I have not watched he abomination in a full season and a half+, so it will be interesting to see the common ground here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he is going to get what he wants while sacking Oldtown but I don't think he is going to win the naval battle. I don't think he even cares about that or his men or ships other than it is a distraction to lure the Hightower ships out of the bay so he can gain entrance himself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no such consensus and it is not likely that Euron will care to sack or conquer Oldtown.

Should Euron crush the Redwyne fleet somehow - and I think he'll do that - he'll have the defenseless Arbor, a much better and more juicy fruit than Oldtown - as rich (or even richer in its totality) as Oldtown but also an island, which means the Ironborn can conquer and keep it considering that they will 'rule the waves' like some other islanders in the real world did in the early modern days...

And what do people do if there is an armada out the sea cutting off and controlling trade? They surrender to the British Ironborn Empire. That is why Oldtown will bend the knee, just like the Chinese gave Hong Kong to the British, the Spaniards Gibraltar, the Indians, well, India, etc. The Reach men know what they have to do when the Ironborn hold all the cards. Oldtown cannot prosper if the Ironborn control the seas around their city.

Even if Euron sacked Oldtown he would just risk losing half or more of his troops and most definitely lose any chance to win allies and make friends in the green lands. The man want's the Iron Throne. You cannot take - and hope to keep - the Iron Throne against the people of the Reach. That's impossible.

True that Old Town/Hightower might surrender to his demands in the benefit of trade. That is what the Hightowers are known for and how they became and remained successful. I do not however see anyone else really subjecting to Euron. The Reach are at war with him, The Lannisters can do nothing, Dorne has nothing for him and supports Aegon soon enough. (f)Aegon holds the Storm Lands and Dany will come sometime. Also winter will hit the Iron Ilands too, making it necessary to come back before winter truly hits or not coming home till summer (which is expected to be years). Knowing that Euron is no real long term threat (he will never rule the 7K) might cause Hightower to fight him instead of letting it happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Faceless Man Jaqen traveled with Arya from King's Landing to Riverlands, and then he came to Oldtown, killed Pate and took his identity and place at Citadel. Though maybe between Riverlands and Oldtown, he visited Iron Islands, and killed Balon Greyjoy on Euron's order.

Maybe Euron is planning to seize Oldtown from within, using some magic, or other means, "borrowed" from Citadel by still working for him Faceless Man (Jaqen/alchemist/Pate).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I think Monty Python has the answer: Nobody expects the Spanish Iniquisition.

Oldtown hasn't been sacked in ages, so they very well may not see it coming or believe Euron can do it. And that crazy bastard is just crazy enough to pull it off.

There are also vague references in the text that indicate Euron hired the FM for something. Presumably that would be to kill someone, because that's what they do, but for the price of a dragon egg (threw into the sea = left in Braavos as payment) they might be willing to do something different. And there is an FM in the Citadel right now. In a world where dragons are hatching again, the FM might have decided such a treasure was worth more than just offing Balon.

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Megorova @Lady Blizzardborn Although I always expected the dragon egg to be payment for the FM that supposedly killed Balon I did not consider that he/Pate might be still in Euron's services. I doubt Old Town would fall through an FM for instance killing Baelor and Leyton, taking Baelor's face and surrendering. 

 

 it is clear that the Hightowers are preparing for war @Lady Blizzardborn. Humphrey Hightower is in Lys(?) trying to enlist sellswords/ships. Garth is training the army/City and Baelor is doing something useful to I can't remember now. I expect Old Town to be well prepared and warned by raven from either the Blackcrown or the Three Towers when the IB sail up the Whispering Sound. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ethelarion said:

@Megorova @Lady Blizzardborn Although I always expected the dragon egg to be payment for the FM that supposedly killed Balon I did not consider that he/Pate might be still in Euron's services. I doubt Old Town would fall through an FM for instance killing Baelor and Leyton, taking Baelor's face and surrendering. 

 

 it is clear that the Hightowers are preparing for war @Lady Blizzardborn. Humphrey Hightower is in Lys(?) trying to enlist sellswords/ships. Garth is training the army/City and Baelor is doing something useful to I can't remember now. I expect Old Town to be well prepared and warned by raven from either the Blackcrown or the Three Towers when the IB sail up the Whispering Sound. 

I wouldn't have suggested that a FM would take a Hightower face and surrender the city. If, and that's a big if, the FM currently in the Citadel were to be working on something for Euron it would be far more likely to have something to do with the city's layout and defenses, or with Dany's dragons.

It's one thing to prepare for war. It's another to really consider  the possibility that you could lose. We don't have any Hightower POV so we don't know how panicked or confident they're feeling. And we readers know Euron's into something sinister/dangerous even without TWOW chapters. It's not a stretch to think he might succeed in taking Oldtown. And it would nicely set up Aegon as savior if he goes and takes it back, or admittedly, if he shows up and prevents Euron from taking the city in the first place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the Reach isn't at full strength because of (f)Aegon's invasion, so if there was ever a time to go for Old Town I guess now is the time. Also I think Euron's goal may not be to sack and win Old Town, but cause even chaos to maybe sneak into the Citadel or High Tower and steal something important.

I don't think any of the plans Euron has laid out for the Iron Born are completely honest. I doubt he trusts Victarion to follow through with his orders. I'm sure he realizes he doesn't have the man power with his current forces to hold and keep a large part of the Reach either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The forces of the Reach are spread quite thin. They have forces at Dragonstone, King's Landing and Storm's End all of which are quite far from Oldtown. So the Hightowers would be on their own if Euron attacked. It's my opinion if Oldtown does get attacked it will be a raid and not a conquest. Theon's Winterfell campaign pretty much sums up why Euron won't stick around to occupy something his fleet can't defend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Ethelarion said:

True that Old Town/Hightower might surrender to his demands in the benefit of trade. That is what the Hightowers are known for and how they became and remained successful. I do not however see anyone else really subjecting to Euron. The Reach are at war with him, The Lannisters can do nothing, Dorne has nothing for him and supports Aegon soon enough. (f)Aegon holds the Storm Lands and Dany will come sometime. Also winter will hit the Iron Ilands too, making it necessary to come back before winter truly hits or not coming home till summer (which is expected to be years). Knowing that Euron is no real long term threat (he will never rule the 7K) might cause Hightower to fight him instead of letting it happen. 

I expect Cersei and Euron to marry after she escapes KL (prior/during Aegon's rise to power) and then the West will declare for Euron/Cersei.

If/once the Redwyne fleet is gone the ability and willingness of the lords in the coastal regions of the Reach (especially among the Hightower bannermen but not only there) to continue the fight against the Ironborn will collapse.

The strength a vast navy lies in the mobility it grants you. Euron can now attack everywhere, and they stand no chance to stop him since they would first have to build a new, vast fleet - something Euron could prevent by attacking their shipyards before the news ships are ready, etc.

Garlan and Willas could retake the Shields and secure the Mander again, but the open sea along the southern coasts will belong to the Ironborn. And they have migrated to those regions now. They have bases on various islands, and once they have the Arbor they will have tremendous resources. Euron is never going to return to the Iron Islands.

My guess is that Euron's next goal after the Arbor will lie east, not west. He wants the Iron Throne and he expects Victarion to bring him Daenerys. To get to KL he'll go through the Narrow Sea - which means he is likely to move his armada to the Stepstones. And once he learns he about Aegon's existence and success - and that Dorne has declared for him - his natural next target will be Sunspear. Think about it. It is a coastal place, and Doran has weakened Dorne considerable by amassing to armies of 20,000 men in the Red Mountains. Putting down Arianne's crippled father and her younger brother is going to send a very strong message to his Aegon boy and his would-be queen. And this should be very easily doable at the Water Gardens. Sunspear might be able to resist - and if Doran were attacked there, his loyal men would likely be able to get him out of there in time. But the loss/sacking of Sunspear, the Shadow Town, the Planky Town, etc. would be a huge blow to Aegon and Dorne.

Vice versa, it could Euron help get along better with certain people in the Reach. After all, Dorne will be the first main power supporting Aegon, fighting against those Reach men who still stand with King Tommen. The Hightowers shouldn't care what Euron Greyjoy does to the Dornishmen.

7 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

It's one thing to prepare for war. It's another to really consider  the possibility that you could lose. We don't have any Hightower POV so we don't know how panicked or confident they're feeling. And we readers know Euron's into something sinister/dangerous even without TWOW chapters. It's not a stretch to think he might succeed in taking Oldtown. And it would nicely set up Aegon as savior if he goes and takes it back, or admittedly, if he shows up and prevents Euron from taking the city in the first place.

They consider it. They are cautious, check the ships coming in, build war ships, and prepare for war. They know that Euron is a main threat.

6 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

The forces of the Reach are spread quite thin. They have forces at Dragonstone, King's Landing and Storm's End all of which are quite far from Oldtown. So the Hightowers would be on their own if Euron attacked. It's my opinion if Oldtown does get attacked it will be a raid and not a conquest. Theon's Winterfell campaign pretty much sums up why Euron won't stick around to occupy something his fleet can't defend.

They are not spread thin. The Reach can field 100,000 men. And Garlan Tyrell took 30,000-40,000 men back with him when he returned to Highgarden (he took half of Mace's forces when he returned back home) and he and Willas are now raising new troops.

Also note that the Hightowers are still at full strength considering that they sent essentially no men to Renly.

A sack might be possible, but at a high cost. And it wouldn't help Euron's cause in any way. He cannot hope to conquer the Reach - and he cannot hope to take the Iron Throne and hold it against the Reach.

In the past, the Ironborn kings also never conquered the Reach. They raided their coasts, and along the rivers because they were the better seafarers and had steel weapons very early on - and that caused the lords and kings there to bend the knee or pay tribute to ensure that they show up twice a season (or twice a year) and steal their crops, kill their peasants, and abduct their women. It was easier to do them homage - and it will be easier to do homage to Euron than to fight him.

The Reach - and especially the Hightower - know how you suck up to power. They did it with the Ironborn kings, they did it with the Gardeners, and they did it with the Targaryens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Lord Varys

i don't see Euron or Cercei wanting an alliance for several reasons. Cercei, although dilusional, must realise her position is significantly weaker than the Tyrells'. The  Reach can answer a Euron-Cercei alliance by invading the Westerlands by the 40k around Hightower/Brightwater. They are at war with the IB. If Cercei would align with Euron the Reach have Casus Belli to take KL and the Westerlands in one fell swoop. Also Euron would lose two possible targets by marrying Cercei while gaining barely anything. He can't act towards Dorne since Cercei would never sacrifice Mycella and the Westerlands are his allies then. Euron also likely loses the possible alliance with Dany. He gains nothing except legitimacy, something he is unlikely to value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ethelarion said:

i don't see Euron or Cercei wanting an alliance for several reasons. Cercei, although dilusional, must realise her position is significantly weaker than the Tyrells'. The  Reach can answer a Euron-Cercei alliance by invading the Westerlands by the 40k around Hightower/Brightwater. They are at war with the IB. If Cercei would align with Euron the Reach have Casus Belli to take KL and the Westerlands in one fell swoop. Also Euron would lose two possible targets by marrying Cercei while gaining barely anything. He can't act towards Dorne since Cercei would never sacrifice Mycella and the Westerlands are his allies then. Euron also likely loses the possible alliance with Dany. He gains nothing except legitimacy, something he is unlikely to value. 

There's a lot of other factors though.

If the Reach is tied up by the Ironborn, they’re unlikely to have the ability to invade the Westerlands. Added to that:

Spoiler

the Tyrell army is marching on Storms End in Winds.

If Aegon defeats them, then they will be in a much weaker position. The Tyrells are strong, but they’re unlikely to be able to take on the Golden Company, the Ironborn and invade the Westerlands and capture Kings Landing.

Plus, the Golden Company have friends in the Reach. There's no guarantee the entire Tyrell army will stay loyal at all.

Euron, by marrying Cersei, essentially becomes king. That’s reason enough. I’m sure a man like Euron won’t concern himself too much with the legal niceties, and will find pretext to marry Dany as well if he fancies it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euron was setup as a huge threat to Danaerys by Moqorro who says something along the lines of a kraken being her biggest enemy.  If he is going to be a huge threat to her he has to win the upcoming battles he is facing.  Also, can't help but notice that you referenced Eurons VS armor... so you did read the sample chapter.

Euron controls the Shields and the Arbor, and imo will sink the incoming Hightower and Redwyn fleets with some sort of magic ritual.  I then believe that Garlan, thinking the Ironborn occupied or defeated will attempt to retake the shields using a bunch of riverboats not designed for open water, let alone combat, and will be taken by surprise by the return of the Ironborn, resulting in Garlan being killed by Harlaw using Nightfall.  Olenna tells Garlan that Night falls for all, or something along those lines, earlier in the books.  

Then Euron copies the Ironborn conquest of the Riverlands, and has the Ironborn carry their longships from the sound at the mouth of the Mander, overland to the Honeywine, and attacks Oldtown from the river, where they have no defenses.

The idea of them surrendering doesn't work for me because as much of a threat as the Ironbron are at sea, the rest of the Reach and Aegon aren't just going to let Oldtown declare for someone else, the bigger threat is the person who can and will kill you, not the person who can and will cut off your money supply.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Then Euron copies the Ironborn conquest of the Riverlands, and has the Ironborn carry their longships from the sound at the mouth of the Mander, overland to the Honeywine, and attacks Oldtown from the river, where they have no defenses.

It would be very surprising if Oldtown had no defenses on the river side wouldn't it? I can see an argument for them being more vulnerable there, or not seeing a surprise attack coming from that direction though.

21 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The idea of them surrendering doesn't work for me because as much of a threat as the Ironbron are at sea, the rest of the Reach and Aegon aren't just going to let Oldtown declare for someone else, the bigger threat is the person who can and will kill you, not the person who can and will cut off your money supply.

I'm not sold on the idea of Hightower simply changing allegiance, but theoretically they could do. If the Tyrells march on them, they would have the support of the Ironborn, and Oldtown's a tough nut to crack anyway. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×