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Shae and Tywin


scottrick49

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There was no need for Varys to get Tyrion to kill Tywin. Tyrion was guilty of regicide; he poisoned Joffrey in the eyes of the world, there was no reason to believe his family would take him back even before he killed his father.
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[quote name='Lord Varys' post='1562714' date='Oct 21 2008, 11.36']There was no need for Varys to get Tyrion to kill Tywin. Tyrion was guilty of regicide; he poisoned Joffrey in the eyes of the world, there was no reason to believe his family would take him back even before he killed his father.[/quote]

But would Danny take him in with only killing Joffery as evidence of his turn against his family? I think the murder of Tywin was necessary to gain her trust. Varys probably knows that Tyrion did not kill Joffery. So how can he trust Tyrion to help Danny until he proves his loyalty.

Let us think about Danny's main advisor now? Ser Barristan the Bold. He worked with Jamie for many years. He knows that Jamie and Tyrion are close. Is he going to accept Tyrion into Danny's inner circle? Is he going to trust Tyrion? I hope not.

Killing Tywin goes a long way towards helping both Barristan and Danny trust Tyrion. But even with that I still have my doubts.

Personally in my place if I were Danny, I would not trust Tyrion. He would be Dragon food. But I know more about Tyrion then Danny does.
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[quote name='Ran' post='1562566' date='Oct 21 2008, 08.38']Tyrion would never have killed Tywin over Shae. He did not, in fact, kill Tywin over Shae. He killed Tywin over Tysha. If Varys bet that Tyrion would kill his father because Shae was in his bed, it was a very bad bet.[/quote]
I'm not sure that Tyrion killing Tywin over Tysha indicates that he would not have killed Tywin over Shae.
He has certainly been willing to kill others over Shae. And he is willing to kill Shae -- not because of Tysha, I'll posit.
But would he kill his own father over a whore? Probably not now that she has betrayed him.
Tyrion, upon first seeing Shae says: [i]That might have hurt me once, when I still felt pain.[/i]
I think this means that Tyrion is now willing to let Tywin go, in spite of Shae, so long as he is willing to make amends by reuniting Tyrion with Tysha. This is pretty much the gist of Tyrion's threat. Now, I suppose that Tyrion may have been planning to kill Tywin -- as a matter of survival and escape -- no matter what he said, but Tywin made sure that the answer to that question will never be known.
In any case, I think Varys had plenty of reason to believe that Tyrion would be willing to kill (maybe even Tywin) over Shae up until she testified against him in the trial. At that point, if there had been any plan to use her for that purpose, it was utterly lost.
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[quote name='Nadie' post='1562677' date='Oct 21 2008, 10.11']Wait, are you saying that the botched assassination attempt that proved to be the catalyst to convince Drogo to invade Westeros was completely a plot of Varys as well?[/quote]
King Robert agreed to foot the bill to hire an assassin in A Game of Thrones at the insistence of Varys, Littlefinger, and Pycelle -- against the protest of Eddard Stark and Barristan Selmy. After Selmy escaped Kings landing, with Varys' assistance he went east. He was then in a unique position to meet up with Dany and save her just as an assassin was poised to strike. That's a very convenient set of circumstances.
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[quote name='Jakob Lightbringer' post='1562779' date='Oct 21 2008, 11.18']King Robert agreed to foot the bill to hire an assassin in A Game of Thrones at the insistence of Varys, Littlefinger, and Pycelle -- against the protest of Eddard Stark and Barristan Selmy. After Selmy escaped Kings landing, with Varys' assistance he went east. He was then in a unique position to meet up with Dany and save her just as an assassin was poised to strike. That's a very convenient set of circumstances.[/quote]

Actually, I was referring to the poisoned wine-seller attempt, which was thwarted by Jorah, and is what caused Drogo to declare he would unleash the beast on the 7 Kingdoms, not the attempt that Whitebeard thwarted.

Perhaps the Whitebeard intro was set up in collusion with that attempt, though Barristan would never have gone along with it, I could see Illyrio taking a hand.
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[quote]At that point, if there had been any plan to use her for that purpose, it was utterly lost.[/quote]

Exactly. That was my meaning. He's not going to kill his father over a prostitute who sold him out.

[quote]He was then in a unique position to meet up with Dany and save her just as an assassin was poised to strike. That's a very convenient set of circumstances.[/quote]

You're connecting the wrong pieces up, Jakob. :) The assassination attempt in Qarth was arranged by the Qartheen.

Varys clearly [i]did[/i] send to Illyrio to warn Jorah that Robert had agreed to put a price on Dany's head, with the probable hope that any attempt(s) would push Drogo to finally commit to sending an army across the narrow sea. Remember, at this time Daenerys was not really that important -- it was Viserys who was going to be the guy who was supposed to sit the Iron Throne -- and I don't know as Varys and Illyrio cared whether she lived or died at that particular point. Fortunately for them, she survived the attempt by the Lysene "wine merchant" at Vaes Dothrak thanks to Jorah's "timely" intervention, as Viserys was killed shortly before that.

That said, I don't find this to be very much like this alleged conspiracy. There's not really a lot of random balls being tossed into the air or whatever the metaphor du jour is at the moment.
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[quote name='Nadie' post='1562793' date='Oct 21 2008, 11.24']Perhaps the Whitebeard intro was set up in collusion with that attempt, though Barristan would never have gone along with it, I could see Illyrio taking a hand.[/quote]
Well, Illyrio and Varys go hand in hand. So if you can believe such a thing possible of one, why not the other? Barristan and/or Jorah would only need to have whatever information Illyrio and/or Varys felt necessary to tip the likely outcome in their favor. They are in a unique position to play all sides against each other.
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[quote name='Jakob Lightbringer' post='1562816' date='Oct 21 2008, 11.34']Well, Illyrio and Varys go hand in hand. So if you can believe such a thing possible of one, why not the other? Barristan and/or Jorah would only need to have whatever information Illyrio and/or Varys felt necessary to tip the likely outcome in their favor. They are in a unique position to play all sides against each other.[/quote]

Oh, I didn't say I didn't believe that its possible, at least for the second attempt. I could see Varys and Illyrio setting something like that up, moreso because Illyrio was [ETA: closer by] to make it happen.

ETA: for the record, I'm not sure if Varys was involved or not in setting up these attempts to thwart them, or if indeed that was even happening. My thoughts on this are basically that its not out of the realm of possibililty, and more likely than than Shae being planted...
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I've gotten confused.

Where was Illyrio supposed to be on hand? He wasn't at Qarth, nor Vaes Dothrak for that matter.

I actually don't think there's any evidence at all suggesting he set up the attempt on Dany in Qarth. The logic of it doesn't work. She's the "only" Targaryen, and she's the one with the dragons. She's the goose that laid the golden egg. He needs her to further whatever plans he has. Risking her life just so that Belwas and Arstan can introduce themselves? Seems kind of over the top.

In any case, yes, Varys played a part in the botched attempt in Vaes Dothrak, by informing Illyrio that there would be attempts on Dany, who in turn informed Jorah. I don't believe Varys or Illyrio had anything to do with the Sorrowful Man that tried to kill Daenerys, however.
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Let me ask you [i]this[/i], then:

What’s more unlikely — Varys planting Shae, or a thread that is actively monitored by a moderator running for 410 posts? Eh?

(Gods, I feel dirty just typing this. 410 posts! Every character an abomination before the gods.)
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