Tullys: Top three or bottom four?

[Summer is Ending]

Only one border access. All regions are open to naval access, and unlike the other 2 defensible land regions, they have naval power/ tradition.

My impression of the Andal invasion is something like the Moorish invasion of Spain (Andal-usia!).I don't think of it as the reflection of a single political force with a clear strategic aim, but rather more like a wandering nation invasion via the sea. IOW, I don't think the Vale was ever in a position to muster and defend as a unified entity against a unified entity, more an erosion by force, but I could be wrong.

Edit for edit; my impression is the VAle actually tended to win against the North in that era, but again, just an impression. Can't remember where it comes from...I think the Sisters were the Alsace and Loraine for them, though, so I think their being in the Vale might be my reasoning.

That's how it is, they drove the Northmen off the Sisters.

“I have no love for northmen,” he announced. “The maesters say the Rape of the Three Sisters was two thousand years ago, but Sisterton has not forgotten. We were a free people before that, with our kings ruling over us. Afterward, we had to bend our knees to the Eyrie to get the northmen out. The wolf and the falcon fought over us for a thousand years, till between the two of them they had gnawed all the fat and flesh off the bones of these poor islands.

[James Arryn]

A couple things, I don't think the Lannister are vulnerable to the south. The books make it seem as though the gold road is some sort of Thermopylae hugging the coast.

Hmmmm. Maybe I need a re-read. The maps and my pc games seem to indicate differently, but you may well be right. I would still say there are many more land openings than to the VAle, though.

Second, the problem the Riverlands have is they don't have a larger population or superior production power. If they invaded the Westerlands there'd be nothing to stop the Stormlands from invading them.

That was what I meant by the right political situation/Germany analogy. A negotiated front to one side, a military expansion to the other.

I should note, however, that we only seem to assume multiple House actions for the RL...The Westerlands, Stormlands and Reach also have multiple fronts, and would also be in a tough position if attacked on 2 fronts.

The Andal invasion did come in from the coast, but it seems to have been some sort of sneak attack.

Yeah, it reads as vague...diffused and yet sudden. Again, kind of like 711, IMO.

The route from the coast is as easily defensible as the high road. Gulltown is vulnerable though. Technically the Vale doesn't have a navy, as far we know. The main reason for it I can see, is that every kingdom has a coastline, so there's a large free rider incentive to simply develop no navy, since there's no way a dominant position at sea can be assured. Only island states really have naval power, Redwyne, Dragonstone and Iron Islands.

Hmmmm. I absolutely thought the Vale did have a navy, in part because of so many naval battles they have fought...they were the ones who beat the Targ fleet, for instance. And unlike Dorne or the North, we hear of no specific disbanding or destruction of their naval force..so I assumed they had one. They do have island possessions, for instance. I agree, though, post-Targ I can't think if explicit examples, but we know there were Stormlands lords with ships, too, no? I'm not sure what assumption is safer, but IMO the explicit statements f Dorne and the North lacking a navy suggests the norm is otherwise, and the Vale is pretty big on naval trade.

[The BlackBear]

I didn't think it was a coincidence that, the Lannisters had Crakehalls to the South directly next to the Ocean road. Assuming you mean the ocean road, the Gold Road goes to KL, and the Riverroad goes to Riverrun. I always viewed the Crakehalls as one of the premier and more martial Westerland houses.

As far as the Vale North conflict I never really saw it spilling out further than the Sisters.

[balefired-ed]

OK the Ocean road. That's the one that's also easily defended like Thermopylae . Its just a compact wealth area with strong fortifications and high population. Its not impossible to invade, but its difficult enough. The Vale is more so but the Westerlands are a sufficiently difficult nut to crack. Even having broken through Robb Stark, couldn't hold the territory and could do serious damage.

I think in regards to Robb Stark you are mistaken.

The point of his campaign in the West was not to hold territory. It had three major goals:

1. Destroy the host of Stafford Lannister- accomplished.

2. Damage Western infrastructure and steal food- accomplished.

3. Force Tywin to react to his campaign and draw him into an ambush, making the Lannister position untenable in the West, Riverlands, and King's Landing- nearly successful but for failure in the CoC to communicate its goals to Edmure.

Holding land was never the point and given the size of the Stark & Tully forces would have been impossible anyway. It was essentially a raid on a grand scale.

[The Storm Queen]

One point about the Riverlands; we think of their position as it relates to weakness, which in most circumstances is true. Especially as it relates to a defensive war.

BUT, as with Germany in Europe, if you align the right political situation withi sn aggressive rather than defensive approach, they could attain supremacy easier than most other Houses could achieve under almost any other situation. Their centrality and the highways of transport and information the rivers provide could, if used properly, in the right situation, put them atop the heap.

If they act first, that is. If they are on the defensive, they are probably always doomed to be reduced to a battleground.

Agree with you there. In order to thrive the Riverlands either need a Bismark of their own or - as a second option - a strong and stabilizing central government that allows them to focus on producing goods and becoming a trade hub. In this instance the Riverlands actually remind me actually a bit of Afghanistan and its geostrategic location: In the worst case it becomes the stage for other nation´s kingdom´s great games, in the best case it can be a power in the center of transnational trade, cultural exchange etc.

Concerning the Riverlands if someone else might have led the war efforts (a healthy Hoster, a combo of the BF and Catelyn) their situation maybe also would have been slightly better: As it happened in the books they had to deal with a chain of command that was kinda murky sometimes and two young commanders who both were unexperienced and had either deficits in the political or military area.

[Axrendale]

Regarding the defensibility of the Vale of Arryn via the landward route, I have a suspicion that the Mountains of the Moon might not be the completely impenetrable barrier that they are generally thought to be, and that it may in fact be possible to penetrate the Vale with an armed force through bypassing the High Road and the Bloody Gate: if one is able to enlist the aid of the locals. Just as there exist alternative routes through the Neck other than the Kingsroad if one is able to obtain guidance from the Crannogmen (think of the way that Robb Stark was planning to attack Moat Cailin), it seems to me very possible that the Hill Tribesmen of the Mountains of the Moon may be aware of hidden paths through the mountain range - which seems to be confirmed by the fact that the Tribesmen are known to have raided the Vale itself in the past, as well as travellers along the road.

When Tyrion asked for permission to lead an attack on the Vale in A Storm of Swords, I believe that something like this was probably what he had in mind.

OK the Ocean road. That's the one that's also easily defended like Thermopylae . Its just a compact wealth area with strong fortifications and high population. Its not impossible to invade, but its difficult enough.

IIRC, the area around Crakehall is known to be very heavily forested, which would add greatly to its defensibility.

[E-Ro]

No, its' actually obvious that Stannis is very unpopular

I call shenanigans. If stannis were lord of se the stomlords would have been with him.

[Corvinus85]

let it be known that this thread has turned to a conversation about Stannis at pg. 2. Actually I knew it would since the OP unwisely placed the Baratheons towards the bottom of the list.

[E-Ro]

let it be known that this thread has turned to a conversation about Stannis at pg. 2. Actually I knew it would since the OP unwisely placed the Baratheons towards the bottom of the list.

But they are clearly not, that goes to dorne, then the iron islands, then MAYBE the stormlands.

[Free Northman]

But they are clearly not, that goes to dorne, then the iron islands, then MAYBE the stormlands.

He said "toward the bottom of the list'. Which they are. They are second from the bottom. The Iron Isles aren't included, because they aren't part of the list of Seven Kingdoms that Doran was referring to when he placed Dorne at the bottom.

If you add the Iron Isles, then the bottom three would be, in descending order:

Stormlands

Dorne

Iron Isles.

[E-Ro]

He said "toward the bottom of the list'. Which they are. They are second from the bottom. The Iron Isles aren't included, because they aren't part of the list of Seven Kingdoms that Doran was referring to when he placed Dorne at the bottom.

If you add the Iron Isles, then the bottom three would be, in descending order:

Stormlands

Dorne

Iron Isles.

Thats more like it. In terms of population.

[The BlackBear]

let it be known that this thread has turned to a conversation about Stannis at pg. 2. Actually I knew it would since the OP unwisely placed the Baratheons towards the bottom of the list.

Not really, he's been mentioned a bit, but if anything it's turned into an all round strategic thread. With emphasis on the Vale.

[Free Northman]

Thats more like it. In terms of population.

That said, the differences between the regions are not really astronomical, except for the Reach which is a bit overpowered. I kind of see the steps from one to the next in jumps of 5k armed men. And some are probably very equal: Here goes:

Iron Isles - 25k

Dorne - 30k

Stormlands - 35k

Vale - 40k

North - 45k

Riverlands - 50k

Westerlands - 50k

Reach - 90k

As I said before, the Westerlands' wealth allows them to raise a larger percentage of their population to arms. Thus their high armed strength does not mean they have a higher population. In fact, I place their population as equal to the Vale, with their gold enabling them to raise 10k more men under arms.

Similarly, the North can raise a lower percentage of their population to arms, thus the 45k armed strength under-respresents their population, which is probably on a par with that of the Riverlands, and higher than that of the West and Vale.

EDIT

So as can be seen, any two kingdoms that randomly decided to get it on with one another would be fairly well matched, barring the stupidly overpowered Reach.

[E-Ro]

That said, the differences between the regions are not really astronomical, except for the Reach which is a bit overpowered.

Dont get me started on the reach, I made a thread about it a while back venting my frustrations on the subject.

Here http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/69892-the-strength-of-the-reach/

[Free Northman]

Dont get me started on the reach, I made a thread about it a while back venting my frustrations on the subject.

Here http://asoiaf.wester...h-of-the-reach/

I could accept the 70k men Renly had with him from the Reach. What I cannot accept, is that this excluded Oldtown and the Arbor, which together must add at least another 20-30k men.

This is just ridiculous. The Reach should dominate the Westerosi political landscape. At least, they should dominate the South. I can understand that they never had any influence over the North, who are geographically untouchable by them, but the West, Dorne, Stormlands and Riverlands should all have been under their dominance by now.

If even one Tywin arose in the Reach over the last few thousand years, the rest of the Kingdoms would have been in serious trouble. They outnumber Dorne by 3 to 1, for Pete's sake, and even the Riverlands by almost two to one.

It is a worldbuilding error, in my view.

[E-Ro]

If even one Tywin arose in the Reach over the last few thousand years, the rest of the Kingdoms would have been in serious trouble. They outnumber Dorne by 3 to 1, for Pete's sake, and even the Riverlands by almost two to one.

They dont even need a man like tywin, they have 100k freaking men, that is just ridiculous. All the gardner kings had to do was marry his son and daughter to the storm king and get him to swear to you, then bring about 70k men to take the riverlands then the west. Then end the ib that leaves the vale dorne and the north. They are not going to take dorne or the north and these two areas dont really bother anyone so they might as well focus on the vale.

[Free Northman]

They dont even need a man like tywin, they have 100k freaking men, that is just ridiculous. All the gardner kings had to do was marry his son and daughter to the storm king and get him to swear to you, then bring about 70k men to take the riverlands then the west. Then end the ib that leaves the vale dorne and the north. They are not going to take dorne or the north and these two areas dont really bother anyone so they might as well focus on the vale.

Yes, the thing about the Vale is it is very hard to take, but once you're in - whether through treachery of a bannerlord, or assasination or naval assault or long siege or luck or whatever, the whole set of dominoes falls apart and now YOU are in charge of the impregnable fortifications. So once the Vale falls, you've got it for good, like what happened after the Andals took it.

This is in sharp contrast to Dorne or the North, which even if you get through the Boneway or Moat Cailin, you are never going to hold the place. It is just too uncontrollable for foreign occuppiers.

So yes, if the Stormlands, West, and Riverlands had fallen, the Vale's fall would have been inevitable after that. Without Dragons, that's where it would have stopped though. Still, it would be the Iron Throne minus Dorne and the North, which none of the central kingdoms really bother about anyway.

[Free Northman]

For example, I can imagine the Reach directing 100k troops at the West and after a brief if bloody war, annexing the gold fields of the Lannisters, instantly becoming a superpower in terms of wealth as well as population.

[E-Ro]

The thing is the Reach has no natural boundaries. There's nothing to stop someone from marching in and burning all the crops on a punitive expedition. And they have the same problem as the North and the Riverlands with so much of their population being farmers. As soon as you mobilize that force and remove them from the production of food you have an instant famine. So the Reach can't really project that power. You're better off with the Westerland's standing army.

They can project that power, the go with renly leaving a ton of men behind in the reach. I dont think it likely anyone is going to attack them if they marched a large army to conquer another kingdom as when the men got back you would be screwed.

[Free Northman]

The thing is the Reach has no natural boundaries. There's nothing to stop someone from marching in and burning all the crops on a punitive expedition. And they have the same problem as the North and the Riverlands with so much of their population being farmers. As soon as you mobilize that force and remove them from the production of food you have an instant famine. So the Reach can't really project that power. You're better off with the Westerland's standing army.

The Westerlands don't have a standing army. At least if it exists it is no more than a fraction of the 35k men raised by Tywin. It is just that when the need arises they can raise a lot more of their population to arms, because they have the money to feed and equip them and hire mercenaries etc.

But there is no region of Westeros that has a full standing army. The closest is probably the Ironborn, who are all reavers in their free time.