Who is the rightful king, should Cersei be judged guilty?

[Bael's Bastard]

Who would the Faith back, becomes the tricky question. They will not back Stannis because he burnt the Seven and 'follows' the Lord of Light now. I think the Faith will probably side with Aegon for the time being. He is the only contender aside from Stannis to have showed up and he travels with a Septa (apparently). I believe it is safe to assume he follows the Seven as well.

I think Stannis would ditch Mel and the LOL if he thought someone or something else would bring him the crown. I think it is more a matter of whether he would or could be "forgiven" by the Faith than whether he would adopt (or make give the appearance of adopting) the Seven again if it meant becoming king.

[Dornish Whine]

I think Stannis would ditch Mel and the LOL if he thought someone or something else would bring him the crown. I think it is more a matter of whether he would or could be "forgiven" by the Faith than whether he would adopt (or make give the appearance of adopting) the Seven again if it meant becoming king.

Yeah, the Faith won't have him at this point. It seems Stannis has always been more infatuated with Melisandre and her power/promises than with the Great L'ollr. However, it is too late to redeem himself to the Seven in the eyes of the Sparrows. I am pretty confident Aegon and the Faith will buddy up.

[The Witch King of Braavos]

His Royal Majesty Stannis Baratheon the First of His Name King of the Andals and the Rhoynar Protector of the Realm is the rightful King.

And Cersei is guilty on all counts.

Amen

As for Cersei's trial, its in the interest of Varys that she continues to screw things up, and Varys can achieve many things.

Cersei is definitely on trial for incest, which will then call into question the true parentage of Tommen and Myrcella. I suppose it is possible for Cersei to be declared guilty of incest (and treason) and have her children still be claimed as true sons of Robert, since there are no DNA tests.

Regardless, the law is quite clear if Tommen and Myrcella are out of the line of sucession, then Stannis is Robert's rightful and legal heir. Except his dalliance with the R'hollor would probably make him unacceptable to the Faith, and his sense of justice would make him unacceptable to the twice treasonous House Tyrell, and his all around iron personality would make him unacceptable to everyone else.

There are other options. I could see the Faith willing to crown Shireen in exchange for Stannis willingly going into exile or taking the Black. I'm not sure Stannis would buy this and it would leave Shireen as a young girl surrounded by dangerous and greedy people.

But what I think will actually happen is Aegon the Maybe will present his claim as the son of Rhaegar and thus the rightful Targaryen heir. He'll show off his military prowress, good looks, and knowledge of the Faith learned from Septa Lemore, and the Faith will back him.

This says it all really. Aegon will gain the support of the Faith, maybe through his saving of Oldtown from the Ironborn, making things all that bit harder when the Khaless/Mother of Dragons/Mother of Slavesand numerous other disputable titles turns up on the shores of Westeros with an army of eunuchs, freedmen and dothraki perhaps.

[mb2518]

Stannis is a tough character to like. It takes time.

[BranBrokeLegs]

I think you would need a great council to resolve the matter, but it would be pretty difficult with everyone at war with each other. I think the first instinct would be to turn to Aegon VI (real or blackfyre), except of the problem that his Golden Company comrades are going to come into a lot of conflict with the current lords of Westeros about who really owns what. So a fair number of people are going to feel the need to oppose Aegon in order to keep their land. Its unlikely people are going to turn to Stannis. He's Rhollor knows where in the frozen north and may or may not be dead. Plus, he's a heretic. The faith may accept him if he reconverts, but at this point in time, I'm not sure he'd do that. Plus the reasons that most lords rejected him earlier are still there. Dany is still at least 6 months are more getting back to Westeros (maybe a year?). So I think everyone is going to choose sides before she gets there.

[Count Balerion]

One can be both a Stan fan and a Dan fan. So long as it rhymes.

I don't see the Faith and Stannis agreeing. Stan is too proud to recant even if he wanted to, I suspect. It'll get ugly.

[BranBrokeLegs]

Oh, I forgot to add that is doesn't matter anyways. You don't create a monstrosity like Robert Strong, just to have it lose in its first fight. I don't see how Strong doesn't kill Kettleblack and Cersei gets acquitted.

[Gurkhal]

If Cersei would be found guilty of incest then Stannis will be the rightful king but considering that the Faith and the Houses Lannister and Tyrell have all reason NOT to see him seated on the Iron Throne there is little chance that the court will reach this conclusion, or be allowed to reach that conclusion.

Oh, I forgot to add that is doesn't matter anyways. You don't create a monstrosity like Robert Strong, just to have it lose in its first fight. I don't see how Strong doesn't kill Kettleblack and Cersei gets acquitted.

Well, Obryn was kind of build-up and got himself shafted in his first fight so I don't see it as impossible that Robert Strong will face the same fate.

[Arya kiddin']

One can be both a Stan fan and a Dan fan. So long as it rhymes.

It is known. :)

[BearIslander]

I'm sure the rearming of the Faith had a deep meaning and roots in real-world history. After a yet unknown chain of armed conflicts, the Iron Throne is going to lose all significance, so imperial Rome will be replaced by papal Rome. I suspect so.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

Ok, Kevan is dead, so what I believe will happen is Cersei will have Tommen declare her innocent, as Mace Tyrell suggested he do for Margaery, and that will create a rift between the faith and her/Tommen. Cersei will install herself as regent again which will cause more friction with Highgarden. especially if she doesn't have Tommen declare Margaery innocent as well, which she may or may not. That will lead mace and his bannerman to abandon her and join up with Aegon. Again, just my opinion but I think Kevan dying changes everything in regards to what will happen with the trials.

This is my favorite possibility thus far.

Eta Even better then the hound killing ungregor.

[Sullen]

Legally, Tommen is the Rightful King until his bastardy can be proven. (Though Myrcella is rightful queen by Dornish law)

If he is proven a bastard, then Stannis takes the Throne... unless we consider that Kingship derives from the Faith, in which case Stannis is surely excommunicated, ending the Baratheon royal line.

Aegon is also the rightful King from a Targaryen point of view, though he could be fake, in which case the Throne goes to Dany. (Or Jon, should he eventually be proven Targaryen)

Legality is a very fickle subject, you could say that Stannis, Tommen, Myrcella, Aegon, Dany, and Jon are all the rightful lord of the Seven Kingdoms from different, all equally valid perspectives. (Though Myrcella's claim is somewhat weak, being based around Dornish law only)

In the end though, might makes right. Whoever wins the Throne will be the rightful king.

[Dornish Whine]

Ok, Kevan is dead, so what I believe will happen is Cersei will have Tommen declare her innocent, as Mace Tyrell suggested he do for Margaery, and that will create a rift between the faith and her/Tommen. Cersei will install herself as regent again which will cause more friction with Highgarden. especially if she doesn't have Tommen declare Margaery innocent as well, which she may or may not. That will lead mace and his bannerman to abandon her and join up with Aegon. Again, just my opinion but I think Kevan dying changes everything in regards to what will happen with the trials.

This is my favorite possibility thus far.

Eta Even better then the hound killing ungregor.

Actually, yeah after re-reading it, this seems really good. I should amend my initial thoughts about the trial to say "IF Cersei goes to trial, then;" The above could result in flipping the allegiance of the Tyrells away from the Lannister's. I am not sure how to feel about that. I kinda think the Tyrells deserve to go down for backing Cersei to begin with. They are schemers and kingslayers, and while I love Olenna and have mostly good feelings about Margery, their family should probably go down with the sinking ship. So, I hope they continue to back Cersei and get burned for it (perhaps literally if she tries to blow up king's landing). I wonder if Loras will be around to become Jaime 2.0, facing a the same decisions at Cersei's hand in place of Aerys'.

[Julian Rayne]

Kevan explicitly stated that Tommen's claim would fall if Cersei loses. What intrigues me is that very existence of the Faith Militant rests on Tommen's authority. I wonder if They'd have to disband if the Faith wins.

[Weiss_yeah]

Oh, I forgot to add that is doesn't matter anyways. You don't create a monstrosity like Robert Strong, just to have it lose in its first fight. I don't see how Strong doesn't kill Kettleblack and Cersei gets acquitted.

My idea is that it's just able to stand straight and move around. Do you imagine that death and the somewhat incorporation of female entities into dead Gregor has improved his skills at wielding sword?

To Petyr Patter, I've been thinking of Shireen too, but even with Stannis exiled or dead, she has been a really long time (3-4 years) in contact with Red R'hllor and Melisandre to be still pure religiously speaking. It all must feel so natural to her. And her mother is to R'hllor what Stannis fans are to Stannis, devoted.

But all in all your version seems to be the most plausible.

Edit:

Kevan explicitly stated that Tommen's claim would fall if Cersei loses. What intrigues me is that very existence of the Faith Militant rests on Tommen's authority. I wonder if They'd have to disband if the Faith wins.

And the High Sparrow being what he is in his stubbornness, this is a possibility, and it would be most comical!

[bpsae325]

Actually, yeah after re-reading it, this seems really good. I should amend my initial thoughts about the trial to say "IF Cersei goes to trial, then;" The above could result in flipping the allegiance of the Tyrells away from the Lannister's. I am not sure how to feel about that. I kinda think the Tyrells deserve to go down for backing Cersei to begin with. They are schemers and kingslayers, and while I love Olenna and have mostly good feelings about Margery, their family should probably go down with the sinking ship. So, I hope they continue to back Cersei and get burned for it (perhaps literally if she tries to blow up king's landing). I wonder if Loras will be around to become Jaime 2.0, facing a the same decisions at Cersei's hand in place of Aerys'.

The more I analyze the situation, the more I think a lannister/tyrell split is likely. If Cersei has Tommen declare her innocent, which I think she will, she will immediately start to clean house on the small council. The only person she thinks she can trust is Qyburn, and he isn't a Tyrell fan since they took over the council and kicked him off of it. I think he and Cersei will resume doing stupid shit and the Tyrells, who are, IMO, comparable to the Stanley's in the war of the roses, will have no problem switching sides again. The Tyrells, like the Stanleys, do not go down with the ship.

[ladyofslytherin]

Hello all.

I have been looking at many topics, but this is my first, I may have troubles going exactly where I want to go in my argumentation. Well, let's go into this:

In the upcoming sixth book of ASOIAF, we will read about Cersei's trial, which she has chosen to be a trial by battle, and where her innocence (lol), will be defended by the great unknown knight called Robert Strong. I am of the ones who really think this UnGregor is just a great scam by Qyburn and that it will prove completely useless. Anyhow, in my opinion, Cersei will lose: her trial, her head.

But let's just recap the charges brought forth by the High Septon:

-High treason (kind of general)

-Regicide (Robert Baratheon)

-Deicide (Previous High Septon)

-Incest

That got me thinking...

Should she lose, Tommen and Myrcella will be seen as full Lannister incestuous spawn, and their claim over the Iron Throne will be widely considered as invalid. And in this case, what will happen exactly?

First, I am a firm believer in the idea that GRRM knows how to use prophecies properly. I truly think that Cersei will outlive her children, just as Maggy the Frog predicted when Cersei was ten. This being a given, my expectation is that Cersei will be "acquitted" at her trial by combat.

Second, and this is my personal opinion: I think Tommen is going to die at the hands of Robert Strong. It might be some kind of accident during the trial, or it might be later, but I think unGregor is going to be the death of the little king.

This will plunge Cersei into a madness of grief, and will also be the power vacuum that Dorne has been waiting for. With Cersei acquitted and Aegriff's identity still unproven, Doran Martell will wed Myrcella to his son Trystane (as per the betrothal arranged by Tyrion) and declare Myrcella Queen of the Seven Kingdoms.

This will only provide further chaos at court in KL, because some of the Westerosi peerage will decry the idea of a female coming before a male in the line of succession, and will therefore back Stannis' claim to the throne. Others who cannot bear to back Stannis will back Myrcella's claim and promote the legitimacy of Dornish inheritance laws. Cersei herself will be torn between putting her daughter's life in danger by making her queen (because of Maggy's prophecy) and allowing Stannis' claim to be unchallenged and losing control of the Iron Throne. Ultimately, her ambition will get the better of her and she will have the Small Council (or what's left of it) declare for Myrcella.

The Tyrells will have to choose between backing Myrcella and maintaining what advantage they have left at court by virtue of being there or packing up their toys, leaving KL and backing Stannis. I personally believe that Mace will maintain the fiction that they are loyal and will march to Storm's End, giving the impression that they are going to take it back for the throne, when in reality, they are going to try to take it back to win Stannis' gratitude so they can back his claim. Once there, they will encounter Aegriff and

Arianne Martell

. What Mace will do from there will largely depend upon three things:

1) Whether or not Aegriff can convince Mace that he is the long-believed-dead son of Rhaegar Tagaryen;

2) Whether Mace and the rest of the Tyrell family are still loyal to the Tagaryen dynasty or if they want power in their own right now that they've gotten a taste of it under the Lannisters' rule; and

3) Whether or not Mace and Olenna decide that Highgarden's interests are best served by playing both sides against the middle the way Dorne seems to be doing, wait to see who comes out on top and then side with them.

Once Myrcella is installed as queen, her days are numbered; what will finally kill her could be anything from politically-motivated assassination to a fall while riding that breaks her neck. Either way, her death will come just as Daenerys is finally getting her blonde little self back to Westeros with her dragons, her Unsullied, Khal Jhaqo's khalasar and Tyrion Lannister. Cersei will lose everything as Dany's forces easily take control of KL. Who ultimately kills her is still up for debate.

Without the faux-Baratheon heirs still around to muddle up the works, you have only four contenders left:

1) Stannis Baratheon

2) Jon Targaryen (aka Jon Snow)

3) Daenerys Targaryen

4) Aegon Targaryen/(Blackfyre?)

Stannis will never give up on the idea that he's the rightful king, not even with three heads of the dragon staring him in the face. I'm betting that somehow he gets into it with the White Walkers believing that he's Azor Azai reborn and winds up losing because that glamoured sword he carries around isn't Lightbringer, and will therefore freeze and shatter just like any other ordinary steel weapon brought to bear against the Others. So that'll take care of him: nice glorious death for all his fans. Some of Stannis' people might back Shireen for queen once Stannis is gone, but Melisandre will jump ship to ally with the Targaryens and anyone loyal to her will too.

Once you eliminate all other contenders who think that "right of conquest" (a) applies since there are Targs still alive & no formal peace treaty ceding right of rule was ever signed on their behalf after Robert took the throne; and (b ) even counts at this point since every male in the Usurper's line of succession will be dead; then you're back to the original Targaryen line of succession which stems from Aerys and Rhaegar.

The succession in that line, once you weed everything else out, was originally as follows:

Aerys

|

Rhaegar

|

Aegon

|

Jon "Snow" Targaryen

|

Rhaenys

|

Viserys

|

Daenerys

Even though Rhaegar predeceased Aerys, the line of succession still goes down through the Crown Prince's male heirs before going to the Crown Prince's siblings. (This is why Prince George Windsor now comes before Prince Harry in the line of English royal succession IRL). Therefore, if Aegriff really is Rhaegar's son, or at least can pull off convincing people that he is, he's technically the rightful heir to the IT. If he's not and it can be conclusively proven, then Jon is next as Rhaegar's son with Lyanna Stark. But that would require proof as well, and the added bonus of finding a loophole that would get Jon out of his NW vows.

Now, we do have Howland Reed, and possibly a few other people who were attending Lyanna at the TOJ during her pregnancy that could be brought forth to testify that yes, Jon is Rhaegar's child. We also have the fact that if Jon "dies" of his injuries from the attack on him at the end of DwD, he could technically be released from his vows because the NW vows are unto death, from which no one usually returns. So it is conceivable that with a little finagling, Jon could be crowned ruler of the Seven Kingdoms.

However, that's a lot of 'if' to rely on to get either of the boys on the Iron Throne. You also have to take into account the possibility that Aegriff will get himself killed in battle and that Jon, if offered the throne, will turn it down just as Maester Aemon did. That leaves Dany, whose blood lineage is not contested and will have the most military support at her disposal to deal with the inevitable turmoil that comes in the wake of apocalyptic war and dynastic succession vacuums.

There is a possibility that she would acknowledge Aegriff (if he lives) as a Blackfyre kinsman and declare that any children of his shall be heir to the Iron Throne, given her current inability to carry a child to term. Which means that Varys would get what he wants in the end, just one generation down. And if Aegriff marries Arianne, that would give Doran what he wants as well.

Anyway... that's what I think RN.

[ladyofslytherin]

The more I analyze the situation, the more I think a lannister/tyrell split is likely. If Cersei has Tommen declare her innocent, which I think she will, she will immediately start to clean house on the small council. The only person she thinks she can trust is Qyburn, and he isn't a Tyrell fan since they took over the council and kicked him off of it. I think he and Cersei will resume doing stupid shit and the Tyrells, who are, IMO, comparable to the Stanley's in the war of the roses, will have no problem switching sides again. The Tyrells, like the Stanleys, do not go down with the ship.

Y'know, as I was crafting my own reply to this topic, I was thinking about mentioning the resemblance between the RL Stanleys & the Tyrells. I wasn't sure how many people would get the reference, tho, even with the recent popular culture depiction of them in the Starz adaptation of Philippa Gregory's War of the Roses novels. Nice to know that at least one person out there would've! :laugh:

[bpsae325]

Y'know, as I was crafting my own reply to this topic, I was thinking about mentioning the resemblance between the RL Stanleys & the Tyrells. I wasn't sure how many people would get the reference, tho, even with the recent popular culture depiction of them in the Starz adaptation of Philippa Gregory's War of the Roses novels. Nice to know that at least one person out there would've! :laugh:

Back at you, I was worried no one would understand what I was talking about lol

[ladyofslytherin]

Stannis is a tough character to like. It takes time.

Stannis executes people by burning them to death. Eternity isn't enough time to get me to like him. Sorry.