Who is the rightful king, should Cersei be judged guilty?

[ladyofslytherin]

Back at you, I was worried no one would understand what I was talking about lol

My family genealogy ties back into the Tudor line in a couple places, so I've read some of the accounts about how the Stanleys operated. It's really interesting to see that mirrored in the characterization of the Tyrell family, both in the novels and the HBO series. I've seen other comparisons of ASOIAF characters to people that were influential during the War of the Roses (e.g. comparing Stannis to King Richard III). For me, the Stanley/Tyrell similarities are the closest.

[bpsae325]

My family genealogy ties back into the Tudor line in a couple places, so I've read some of the accounts about how the Stanleys operated. It's really interesting to see that mirrored in the characterization of the Tyrell family, both in the novels and the HBO series. I've seen other comparisons of ASOIAF characters to people that were influential during the War of the Roses (e.g. comparing Stannis to King Richard III). For me, the Stanley/Tyrell similarities are the closest.

That's really cool. I have studied the WotR at length and there are many similarities, and there are a lot of posts that discuss that at length, I will try to post them on here so you can check them out.

[ladyofslytherin]

That's really cool. I have studied the WotR at length and there are many similarities, and there are a lot of posts that discuss that at length, I will try to post them on here so you can check them out.

Thanks! It would be nice to see some analyses of the comparisons from other fans perspectives. Looking forward to it!

[Musashisamurai]

I thoyght the incest charge was beought up about her and lancel-I didnt think anyone had openly accused tommen of incest yet-in KL that is. Stannis does it everyday.

And Stannis is right.

Because he's the man.

[bpsae325]

Thanks! It would be nice to see some analyses of the comparisons from other fans perspectives. Looking forward to it!

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/92998-wars-of-the-rosesasoiaf-predictions/?hl=roses

This is the only one I can find right now but there are at least 4 others, I'm probably not doing the search right :/

[Tywin Manderly]

And the High Sparrow being what he is in his stubbornness, this is a possibility, and it would be most comical!

This! The High Sparrow seems to be shooting himself in the foot.

[IceSyckel]

Hello all.

I have been looking at many topics, but this is my first, I may have troubles going exactly where I want to go in my argumentation. Well, let's go into this:

In the upcoming sixth book of ASOIAF, we will read about Cersei's trial, which she has chosen to be a trial by battle, and where her innocence (lol), will be defended by the great unknown knight called Robert Strong...

That got me thinking...

Should she lose, Tommen and Myrcella will be seen as full Lannister incestuous spawn, and their claim over the Iron Throne will be widely considered as invalid. And in this case, what will happen exactly?...

If Cersei's trial by combat goes forward, and if her champion (regardless of his identity) were to lose, then all out civil war is inevitable.

• Tommen's claim to the throne is LEGALLY void, but Tommen will still control martial power in KL, and the Lannisters will not surrender the iron throne -period.

The Tyrells will only support the Lannisters if Margery is acquitted, and even then it is questionable at best.

The high septon will have to either challenge Tommen's claim to the throne or support a child born of incest with no legal claim (and given his character he will choose the former), leaving Stannis the purely LEGAL heir.

Because Stannis is a "heathen," the high septon/faith will not declare for him on grounds his heresy disqualifies him (a new precedent not part of existing law insofar as we know).

That makes Cedric Storm the next legal heir to the IT in the eyes of the Faith, but NOT to Stannis or most Westerosi, who are queerly tolerant of other faiths for a medieval people.

The surviving Targs all have claims, but to make those claims legal, Robert's conquest would have to be set aside, but the Targs cannot make a claim of their own that does not trace back to conquest, so Stannis has the best legal claim.

The Lannisters' supporters will fall away, but not all at once, as none want Jamie Lannister's son ruling the 7K.

A sane Targ will only gain influence and power, while Stannis and Tommen will both be unpopular.

Myrcella's claim will go nowhere - only the Dornish support it, and that support will go to the Targs (even if it did not, Dorne alone cannot win this war).

In short, there would be chaos, which is why I think Martin might write it this way. It would provide a plausible scene for almost any result.

If Tommen pardons Cersei before trial, however, then:

• His illegitimacy will continue to be suspected, but not proven/established, which is essentially the status quo after Stannis' letter, meaning his legal claim to the throne as Robert's eldest male child is the strongest in the eyes of those who matter (legally speaking).

The Faith will be forced to choose between the godless Stannis, and supporting a king who supports them but might be born of incest - ordinarily they would choose the latter, I think, but if Cersei regains power, then she is far more likely to destroy the Faith out of revenge than Stannis is (Stannis has followers who worship the 7).

Regardless, the Faith's only option will be fight or try to make amends, but the High Sparrow is short-sighted (there was always a possibility, from the time he let Cersei go, that he would lose the support of the Iron Throne for the faith - so to win a battle and punish Cersei in the short-term, he has risked losing the war).

Regardless, relations between the Faith and the IT/Lannisters, the 2 military powers in KL, will be strained at best, giving an edge to Stannis and the Targs in attempting to sack the city.

If Tommen does not pardon Margery after doing so for Cersei, then the Tyrells will make common cause against the Lannisters' enemy most likely to succeed.

And those are the potential outcomes as I see them. Legally, Tommen's claim is legitimate until disproven by more than Stannis' allegations (meaning a trial/hearing would be required). Stannis has no proof. Also, it is unclear whether the Faith has jurisdiction to decide this issue, though in the court of public opinion most of Westeros worship the 7. If Stannis and the Faith agree he is JL+CL, then he won't rule long. If Tommen's claim is questioned, then he will eventually lose the throne. To whom he will lose it is an entirely different matter, and we lack sufficient data to answer for certain. The law but not the faith supports Stannis (or arguably the Targs). If Stannis is disqualified, then Cedric Storm is Robert's eldest child. I can't see the lords of the 7K accepting a bastard, though.

[Fightbringer]

i'm unsure whether they are charging her with sleeping with jaime, unless lancel blabbed to the high septon about that too (dont see why he would though, its not his sin, unless he thinks knowing about it is)

But if Cersei is proven guilty, and that does indeed prove that tommen and myrcella are bastards, then the small council could either declare the results illegitimate and keep tommen as king and cersei might survive, or, being that the council is now tyrell dominated, mace could decide to jump ship, if he could somehow procure a divorce for margaery from the high septon (which could be unlikely with this high septon about) and marry her off to aegon he would still have a queen for a daughter, and probably will have grandchildren born a lot sooner to secure their line. If he doesnt grant a divorce (or if it turns out he doesnt have this power, i cant remember if he does) then mace might have to consider putting an end to Tommen, and Maggy the Frog's prophecy comes true, at least for Tommen.

However, its probably more likely Mace opts to stay with this current arrangement, where he has the kingdom in his hands for at least 7 years or so, and the power of Casterly Rock added to his whilst having to give up very little influence to them in return. If the results of the trial are declared invalid however, that would estrange the Faith, leading them to declare for Aegon (though perhaps in secret, as would benefit both sides, the High Septon doesnt get any action taken against him by the IT, and Aegon has people inside KL when he comes to taking it) There is no way they would declare for Stannis, or any of the other kings in westero right now.

[IceSyckel]

Also, this entire thread has made me realize how incredibly dumb it was for the HS to arrest Cersei. It might have seemed like the "right" thing to do, and he is pious, but he has made the Faith the enemy of both Cersei AND Stannis now. With Kevan out of the picture, unless Lancel gets the regency (lol), the HS really has shot himself in the foot unless he can declare for a Targ with a chance at sacking KL.

[Sullen]

Also, this entire thread has made me realize how incredibly dumb it was for the HS to arrest Cersei. It might have seemed like the "right" thing to do, and he is pious, but he has made the Faith the enemy of both Cersei AND Stannis now. With Kevan out of the picture, unless Lancel gets the regency (lol), the HS really has shot himself in the foot unless he can declare for a Targ with a chance at sacking KL.

The High Septon does what is right from the point of view of the Faith, he sticks to his morals. (As retrograde as some of them are)

He'll probably side with Aegon soon enough though, and bypass the "I have no friends and enemies all around me" phase.

[PeterPaulGualtieri]

Cersei should be guilty.

But if it comes down to a trial by combat and Ser Robert Strong's helm gets knocked off: don't be surprised if they have her head off and the High Sparrow crowns himself.

Rightful King? Stannis.

[Weiss_yeah]

Also, this entire thread has made me realize how incredibly dumb it was for the HS to arrest Cersei. It might have seemed like the "right" thing to do, and he is pious, but he has made the Faith the enemy of both Cersei AND Stannis now. With Kevan out of the picture, unless Lancel gets the regency (lol), the HS really has shot himself in the foot unless he can declare for a Targ with a chance at sacking KL.

The High Sparrow is the Eddard Stark of the Faith.

[Petyr Patter]

Also, this entire thread has made me realize how incredibly dumb it was for the HS to arrest Cersei. It might have seemed like the "right" thing to do, and he is pious, but he has made the Faith the enemy of both Cersei AND Stannis now. With Kevan out of the picture, unless Lancel gets the regency (lol), the HS really has shot himself in the foot unless he can declare for a Targ with a chance at sacking KL.

This I disagree strongly with. Cersei had the last High Septon murdered for... being chosen by Tyrion? Even from a purely self preservation point of view, the High Sparrow was well to nip her when she was vulnerable (and guilty) then wait for her to order his death for... having a meal with Margaery would probably be enough for Cersei at this point.

Second, he (and Kevan, let us not pretend he didn't have a big hand in Cersei's penance) BROKE her power. Cersei isn't Queen Regent anymore. Her yesmen have been dismissed from the Small the Council. She might be the titular Lady of Casterly Rock, but the cousins know she's been shamed and Keven (Tywin's right hand man) has deemed her totally unfit for any leadership role. At this point, I don't think Cersei could get a rat catcher dismissed from his post.

The High Sparrow didn't make an enemy out of Cersei, he made a statement out of Cersei.

The real questionable thing was insisting Cersei be charged with incest, which would make Tommen illegitimate if she should lose and legally give the throne to Stannis. Still, if Cersei wins, it puts the incest charge to rest even as Cersei is still "powerless," securing the throne for Tommen and the Tyrells. All he needs to do is declare Margaery innocent, which she is and the vast majority of evidence we know about shows she is. Yet, the Faith still wins by conducting the Trial by Faith in the first place, securing them as a "legitimizer" of royalty.

Or, the High Sparrow is at his heart a Targaryen loyalist, and was told of Aegon the Maybe's return.

Or, as a godly man, he feels the need to expose an abomination lest the gods continue to punish the 7 kingdoms for royalties sins. Appeasing gods is a lot more important than appeasing Cersei.

[Belisarius09]

The rightful heir is and always has been Stannis.

Assuming the HS finds Cersei guilty, Tommen will lose his claim as will the Tyrells. The HS will likely not recognize Stannis as king though because he has abandoned the 7 and turned to Rhollor. The only other candidate this leaves is fAegon, whom has been raised as a follower of the 7 via Septa Lemore. That is who the HS will annoint as the new king. The Tyrells will switch sides yet again and declare for fAegon, or at the very least their bannermen (Randyll Tarly) will. This will set up the next dance of Dragons to occur between Dany and Aegon. Meanwhile Stannis is in the north....

That's about all we can reasonably assume.

[Tywin Manderly]

Second, he (and Kevan, let us not pretend he didn't have a big hand in Cersei's penance) BROKE her power. Cersei isn't Queen Regent anymore. Her yesmen have been dismissed from the Small the Council. She might be the titular Lady of Casterly Rock, but the cousins know she's been shamed and Keven (Tywin's right hand man) has deemed her totally unfit for any leadership role. At this point, I don't think Cersei could get a rat catcher dismissed from his post.

Cersei's power will be restored, courtesy of Varys who needs her to cause more chaos to pave the way for Aegon as the great saviour.

[ladyofslytherin]

If Cersei's trial by combat goes forward, and if her champion (regardless of his identity) were to lose, then all out civil war is inevitable.

• Tommen's claim to the throne is LEGALLY void, but Tommen will still control martial power in KL, and the Lannisters will not surrender the iron throne -period.

The Tyrells will only support the Lannisters if Margery is acquitted, and even then it is questionable at best.

The high septon will have to either challenge Tommen's claim to the throne or support a child born of incest with no legal claim (and given his character he will choose the former), leaving Stannis the purely LEGAL heir.

Because Stannis is a "heathen," the high septon/faith will not declare for him on grounds his heresy disqualifies him (a new precedent not part of existing law insofar as we know).

That makes Cedric Storm the next legal heir to the IT in the eyes of the Faith, but NOT to Stannis or most Westerosi, who are queerly tolerant of other faiths for a medieval people.

The surviving Targs all have claims, but to make those claims legal, Robert's conquest would have to be set aside, but the Targs cannot make a claim of their own that does not trace back to conquest, so Stannis has the best legal claim.

The Lannisters' supporters will fall away, but not all at once, as none want Jamie Lannister's son ruling the 7K.

A sane Targ will only gain influence and power, while Stannis and Tommen will both be unpopular.

Myrcella's claim will go nowhere - only the Dornish support it, and that support will go to the Targs (even if it did not, Dorne alone cannot win this war).

In short, there would be chaos, which is why I think Martin might write it this way. It would provide a plausible scene for almost any result.

If Tommen pardons Cersei before trial, however, then:

• His illegitimacy will continue to be suspected, but not proven/established, which is essentially the status quo after Stannis' letter, meaning his legal claim to the throne as Robert's eldest male child is the strongest in the eyes of those who matter (legally speaking).

The Faith will be forced to choose between the godless Stannis, and supporting a king who supports them but might be born of incest - ordinarily they would choose the latter, I think, but if Cersei regains power, then she is far more likely to destroy the Faith out of revenge than Stannis is (Stannis has followers who worship the 7).

Regardless, the Faith's only option will be fight or try to make amends, but the High Sparrow is short-sighted (there was always a possibility, from the time he let Cersei go, that he would lose the support of the Iron Throne for the faith - so to win a battle and punish Cersei in the short-term, he has risked losing the war).

Regardless, relations between the Faith and the IT/Lannisters, the 2 military powers in KL, will be strained at best, giving an edge to Stannis and the Targs in attempting to sack the city.

If Tommen does not pardon Margery after doing so for Cersei, then the Tyrells will make common cause against the Lannisters' enemy most likely to succeed.

And those are the potential outcomes as I see them. Legally, Tommen's claim is legitimate until disproven by more than Stannis' allegations (meaning a trial/hearing would be required). Stannis has no proof. Also, it is unclear whether the Faith has jurisdiction to decide this issue, though in the court of public opinion most of Westeros worship the 7. If Stannis and the Faith agree he is JL+CL, then he won't rule long. If Tommen's claim is questioned, then he will eventually lose the throne. To whom he will lose it is an entirely different matter, and we lack sufficient data to answer for certain. The law but not the faith supports Stannis (or arguably the Targs). If Stannis is disqualified, then Cedric Storm is Robert's eldest child. I can't see the lords of the 7K accepting a bastard, though.

Firstly: the Faith are charging Cersei of incest with Lancel, not Jaime. Stannis' accusations have every appearance of being self-serving, and there is no one to corroborate his assertions except Jaime thanks to Tyrion's exile and the assassinations of Jon Arryn and Ned Stark. Lancel, IIRC, has admitted to the relationship and is a member of the Faith Militant, on top of Cersei's own confession to the act.

Therefore, Tommen's legitimacy as Robert Baratheon's heir is not in question and public belief in it is not dependent upon the outcome of Cersei's trial.

Secondly: it's Edric Storm, not Cedric. Once I'd have shrugged off as a typo. Twice looks like you not only didn't read the books that carefully but also can't be bothered to use the wiki that's linked on this site to look it up. Doesn't help your case.

Thirdly: Right of conquest only counts if (a) the previous ruling body is entirely wiped out and there are no longer any living heirs to claim that they are the legitimate rulers; or (b ) those of the previous ruling body sign peace/surrender accords ceding ruling authority to the usurping force. Clearly Robert did not succeed in eliminating every member of the Targaryen line of succession, nor were there any accords signed on the Targaryen children's behalf ceding their right to governance to the Baratheons. The Targaryen conquest 300 years prior to the events of the series ended with such accords, which is why their right of conquest is legitimate.

Therefore, Stannis actually has no legal claim to the throne, his assertions and the protestations of his fan base notwithstanding.

Lastly: Stannis is more likely to die in battle with the Others than he is to ever wear the crown of Westeros. The legality of his claim is irrelevant when you factor that in. His sword is not Lightbringer, as Aemon deduced and many people had previously suspected. If he tries to use his "magic" sword in a fight with the Others, it will fail him and he will die just like anyone else who has faced an Other with only steel to strike with. I can't predict any other end for him at this stage. Sorry.

Given all of that, I think you're right that there will be chaos in the land, between the dynastic power vacuum and the impending apocalyptic war. I just don't see anything but the restoration of the Targaryen monarchy at the end of it, whether it's Aegriff, Jon Snow or Dany.

[Weiss_yeah]

Again, in Westeros I doubt that having sex with a cousin, uncle, etc...is considered incest. For example Joanna was Tywin's cousin and Alys Kastark was to be married to her uncle.

Plus, during her audition with HS, he doesn't mention the term incest regarding Lancer but insists on it about her children. Right after, the HS himself:

"Even so, these are terrible charges, and the realm must know the truth of them"

"Your trial will separate the truth from the falsehoods"

I seriously doubt he will overlook such a charge, the "worst of all" according to him.

And well, the trial by battle eradicate the possibility to separate true from false, so it becomes a great package of "all true" or "all false".

Edit: Something bothers me, re-re-re-reading this exact chapter. Kevan speaks of Lancel as Cersei's nephew...? Is this just an error?

[Jaqen H'gcarl]

Just to adress who the rightful king is.

I don't think there's any debate on this, and if there is, people are missing something very crucial.

The presumption is that everyone knows what Right of Conquest is, and that it is a legitimate way of claiming something.

1. Aerys sat on the throne, he is the rightful king.

2. Robert took it by the right of conquest. Robert is now the rightful king.

3. Robert dies. The throne should rightfully go to Stannis, but Joffrey takes it by the right of conquest (blackwater). Joffrey is now the rightful king.

4. Joffrey dies. The throne is passed down to his younger brother Tommen (westerosi law). Tommen is now the rightful king.

If I am missing something, please tell me, but as far as I can see, as long as the right of conquest stands, this is a correct deduction.

The interesting question perhaps is; is the right of conquest a legitimate way of claiming something in Westeros? Does anyone have any knowledge of this?

[Weiss_yeah]

I should've switched the two parts of the title...

Edit: Joffrey "winning" the BBWB is no conquest.

[Jaqen H'gcarl]

I should've switched the two parts of the title...

Edit: Joffrey "winning" the BBWB is no conquest.

Yes it is. Look the definition up if you don't think so.

I can just edit in the definition so people wont have to look it up.

con·quer

v. con·quered, con·quer·ing, con·quers

v.tr.

1. To defeat or subdue by force, especially by force of arms.

2. To gain or secure control of by or as if by force of arms.