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ASOIAF Mafia 47.5 - Holiday Massacre!

Mexal

By Mexal,
in Forum Games

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Alright, well we just hit post 400 and there is not really that much going on. Why not throw down a list?

Whiskeyjack 68- Spamwhore. Behaving exactly how I'd expect him to. This means nothing because WJ would probably have the exact same posts at this point whether he was inno, FM, or SK. Still, I'd lean towards innocent slightly, I suppose, but that is irrelevant because I wouldn't lynch him today anyway. He's already got his panties in a bunch, think about getting lynched day 1 as an innocent would do! :eek::P

Lany Cassandra 53- See first part of WJ. Pretty much Lany this far. I am not loving it, but I also have no real problems. The line of questioning on Filter was meh, but I don't see it being that suspicious on her part.

Weekapaug 51-See here

Shadowbaby 38- I wish I could say more here, I have some bad vibes...I am a bit surprised she has this many posts because I don't remember that many. However, she has been inactive while she is at school (a big no no! ;)), so out of sight out of mind I guess.

Thiocyanide 37- a bit suspicious here. I think the whole Piper/VPI thing was probably an overreaction on his part, but it is something I will remember. It was a strange reaction and he seemed to backpedal at first and then stand firm because it was "hypothetical" on his part. Hypothetical or not, it was still bollocks.

Ser Spider 28- Getting mixed vibes here. Very excited to be playing, that's for sure.

a_homeless_harpy 26- Here I should go back and read because I never thought she had that many posts. Obviously nothing stuck out in my mind as wrong, but I should take a look to see why I remember so little.

House Blackfyre 24- If I could vote Mexal, I would. ::waves to West::

Piper of Chaos 18- Piper is Piper, probably a nutty innocent. Maybe a nutty killer. Leaning towards the first.

Filter 17- Not really suspicious here. Didn't push hard against Piper and came off as genuine IMO.

Daedalus V2.0 13- Literary critic of professionals and amateurs, eh? Understandable to an extent though, sometimes lazy posting is just hard to read.

Gertrude 10- Pretty quiet thus far, but seems like she has been busy. Would like to see more from here so I'd feel better.

hALo BEndeR 6- Despite Halo's concerns I am not particularly suspicious of him. Posting more would still be appreciated though :)

Crusader 4- Post or die! Seriously though, whatever thoughts come to you should get posted. If you are confused or lost, ask and talk it through. We don't all bite, not all the time at least.

JKMan 3- See above

Kat 2- Where'd you go Kat? Are you the SK? Are you busy? Alive?

TheMalcolm 1- Being replaced :(

Maybe this was enlightening, maybe it wasn't. Regardless, I was doing it anyway so it might as well get posted.

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You all aren't doing a very good job of making this very insane :(

any idea on how much time was lost?

Almost exactly 5 hours. My longer post ^^ barely got in. I actually saved it because I thought the board crashed before it posted.

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Sorry for lack of insanity, I've been trying to get back here for hours, just worked.

You and everyone else because the board was down. We usually post here during board outages just so people are up to date. Sometimes someone "in the know" will stop by and drop some knowledge on us, otherwise we just keep refreshing(insanity)

I'm not sure how my hypothetical makes you suspicious, but then, you're not me and I'm not you.

That much is abundantly clear. It is the fact that in making a bigger deal out of something than there should be, one can try and influence other people's opinions. This may or may not have been what you were doing, but I am still rather suspicious and curious with the whole situation.

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Whiskeyjack Council Member

Whiskeyjack

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Okay, so the board downtime sucked. But at least it gave me a chance to step back and think about the game a little bit. What I came up with is that we don't really have much to work on....except for 2 interesting things:

1) People who think that Piper is suspicious for saying he didn't read his role PM. I'm torn between giving the new players a pass on this (because they don't know Piper) and wanting to vote for somebody in this group (because it was so obvious to me that he was joking).

The people who fall into this category are JKMan, Filter, Thio, and (to a lesser extent) Harpy. Yeah, it's hard to ignore the fact that 3 of them are entirely new players. But still....it was so obviously a joke. And this is the type of thing where a new player who is evil might see people suspecting Piper, and they decide it's worth a shot to encourage the case, even if it's a bit ridiculous. :unsure:

2) People defending Gert. This is even more troublesome to me. Gert gets a few votes, and a few people immediately rush to her defense. Why? She was only at 4 votes at the time. It takes 9 to lynch today, so she wasn't even half way there. I really could see a FM partner panicking and making a comment to try to derail a potential lynch. Here are the possible defenses I came across....

Harpy votes for me after I vote for Gert -

A perfect serial killer attitude...or a very good camouflage. Any other reasons to vote for Gertrude, Whiskeyjack?

Shadow walks the middle line -

Gert was a lot more active last game, but there wasn't all that much substance from her on Day 1 iirc... Good point though

Daedalus overreacts -

Regardless, Gert seems to have a lot of votes right now, considering the fact that the 'case' against her is just comparing her post count to that of last game? I mean, isn't that a bit harsh? I've been the butt of one of these before (cases that really aren't cases at all), and I was seriously pissed off about it afterwards. I'm not sure if you're trying to lemming us WJ, but I expected more from you...

And later on, well after the pressure on Gert has dissipated, Halo comments -

Can't say Gertrude being a lot quieter this game then the last one is something I'm suspicious of as I myself am doing the same thing (and not for nefarious reasons I might add).

This first 3 are much more suspicious than Halo's comment, but I figured I'd include that one, to be thorough.

Anyway, something about those defenses just strikes me as being suspicious. Add them to the reality that Gert is being really quiet in this game after being extremely vocal in the last game, and it makes me want to vote for her again. Basically, my case is:

-3 people jumped to defend Gert when she only had 4 out of 9 votes

-If we lynch her and she comes up guilty, it tells us more than if we lynch anybody else in the game. Because it means there's a solid chance that at least one of those 3 people who defended her is also guilty.

-Last game, when she was innocent, she was a very vocal player. She was a leader, even on day 1. This game, she's playing much more under the radar. I know she was busy with work today, but that doesn't explain last night. She was obviously around to post a bit, but she didn't really contribute much of anything. I don't like the change in behavior.

Gertrude

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Whiskeyjack Council Member

Whiskeyjack

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This is weak CF though WJ. Do you really think that pt 2 is really that valid?

Just because we have a CF doesn't mean that the FM are automatically going to throw each other to the wolves, or even ignore pressure against their partners. Especially if the FM is a new player (such as Harpy) or somebody who is relatively inexperienced (like Daedalus). I could see either one of them panicking and trying to throw suspicion off of Gert.

I could also see a partner posting a middle of the road comment like Shadowbaby's. While she was sort of discouraging people from voting for Gert, she was also already safely on the mob (creating distance?)....so she could afford to defend Gert if she was her partner. If Gert was lynched and came up guilty, she'd still have the later argument of "I was the 2nd vote for Gert! And I also did say that WJ made a good point, even if I didn't agree with it completely."

More importantly, we could have a symp in this game. A symp is going to defend his FM, regardless of whether or not we have a CF. That's his job.

So yeah, I do think point 2 is valid. To me, we have the potential to get more information out of lynching Gertrude than anybody else.

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More importantly, we could have a symp in this game. A symp is going to defend his FM, regardless of whether or not we have a CF. That's his job.

So yeah, I do think point 2 is valid. To me, we have the potential to get more information out of lynching Gertrude than anybody else.

Ok fair enough, I'll agree. I think some of it was the fact there was not much data and 4 votes is a decent amount that early on day 1, however the reaction does seem to be greater than it should be perhaps. It's the best we have at this point.

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Whiskeyjack Council Member

Whiskeyjack

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...or did I just get myself added to your second list? ;)

Not yet. :P

To be honest, you and Lany are the 2 people I trust the most right now. You're playing like you usually play when you're innocent. Which is to say, you're being relaxed, making good points, being reasonable. When you're evil, you're a lot more....nervous? Like you said on AIM during the last game, you always seem to say the wrong thing when you're FM. :P

And Lany is pretty much exactly what I expect from an innocent Lany.

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Mods, can you please clarify how many hours we have left? Are you going to extend the day for the 5 hours that the board was down, or just leave it alone, since we (hopefully) don't need all 48 hours on day 1 anyway?

I'd recommend keeping the cap on the day but allowing extra hours for modkills. I would be ok for both or neither as well though.

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Overall, WJ, I'm going to have to agree with you about Gertrude. I'm not as sure about the associations, but she's been the most 'controversial,' I suppose, player, as far as the number of people involved in discussions around her.

What makes you think she is a good lynch target for today? If not the associations, what about being controversial makes you think she is a FM or SK?

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