Paxter

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

It's one way of doing things, and a legitimate way to build the political brand, but I think the Greens still throwing out the odd kooky policy will prevent them from being a mainstream party.

Personally, I think the upcoming income tax cuts are pretty kooky policy. That hasn't stopped the two mainstream parties. 

16 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes, I agree there still aren't many options for controlling inflation. Price controls are far worse than raising rates as it has the end-result of constraining supply even further as businesses decide it's not worth producing.

Price controls is getting to developing-world crackpot for me. I don't even entertain that as an option. 

On 9/28/2023 at 9:56 AM, Jeor said:

I think we're seeing that rates are a poor tool for controlling inflation.

For sure, but there aren't many other options out there. 

Fiscal policy is notoriously bad at controlling inflation, not least because it is owned by politicians. But even putting aside the poor stewardship of our politicians, it tends to take years for government spending and taxation changes to work their way through the economy, and it's in any case very difficult to calibrate the budget balance in the same way as interest rates. 

Then there's aggregate supply. Economists obsess over the way in which this could be expanded in different sectors to reduce price pressures. But it's notoriously hard to increase aggregate supply in a services-oriented economy. Material increases in productivity are not likely in this area until the AI revolution begins in earnest. 

Not sure what other options we have!

4 hours ago, Jeor said:

I don't know, I think a wage-price spiral is starting. I'm in the education sector and this is definitely happening. Public schools in NSW recently got a (deserved) annual pay rise of approximately 12% at the lower end (75K moving to 85K for a grad teacher) and 8% at the top end (113K moving to 122K). Teachers have been voting with their feet and leaving the profession in droves because the cost of living is biting chunks out of their pay, especially if you live in Sydney.

This is scaring the independent sector (schools which pay above the public school rates) and many of them are moving unilaterally to raise teacher pay even though the independent schools MEA doesn't expire until the end of 2024. Anecdotally I've heard some independent schools are going up by 10% as of Term 4 to hang onto their staff. Education is a different sector to most and the teacher shortages are very acute, which puts all the bargaining in the hands of the workers. So it's not surprising they're getting large pay bumps. But it's definitely happening sector-wide.

I can understand in some white collar financial/consulting-type industries there might not be as much of this effect happening as they cut costs etc, but I think the large public sector jobs, and more heavily unionised industries are going to drive up wages by a fair bit.

I don't dispute the wage pressures. But for the wage-price spiral hypothesis to hold, you really need to see wages emerge as a leading indicator of future inflation. Right now, wages are playing catch-up, with many service providers having already raised prices before rising wage costs hit their bottom line. If wages are simply lagging price increases, we don't have a spiral. 

Now that's not to rule out the possibility of a spiral in the future, but I don't see evidence of it yet. 

The monthly inflation indicator in Aus has jumped again. 

Unless we start to see some unemployment, I'm banking on continued sticky inflation as:

• In a debt-laden economy, some key cost pressures actually increase (rather than decrease) when interest rates rise (e.g., rent pressures due to inability to secure a mortgage)
• Petrol prices are out of domestic control (and not helped by the Ukraine war)
• Many other prices (e.g., food, travel) are driven by the oil price
• The AUD is fairly weak and weakening, driving up the price of imported goods (including petrol, which is usually bought in USD)
• There are still some wage pressures out there, though so far there isn't evidence of the dreaded wage-price spiral

All this means that the central bank may have to resort to its blunt tool of monetary policy again before too long. The RBA lags the Fed still by around 100 basis points. 

On 9/18/2023 at 8:00 AM, Jeor said:

It's one of the issues with referendums, I guess.

Not necessarily. We didn't have this issue in 1967. The Opposition was on board and it sailed through.

Much like during the same-sex marriage "postal survey", Australia is not really grown up enough to have a civilized debate that doesn't involve the marginalized group in question feeling even more hurt.

The whole debate is as grubby and embarrassing as our Opposition Leader.

That was a thumping win by India in the Asian Cup. 

Agree with @karaddin that this should have been dropped. A major blunder by Albo that could ultimately tank his premiership. 

I think it was reasonably clear a few months ago that Australians (and Coalition voters in particular) weren't into the proposal and we should have gone back to the drawing board with an alternative form of constitutional recognition.

A bipartisan approach would help too. Dutton (predictably) did not provide any assistance in that regard. 

On 9/1/2023 at 9:07 AM, Jeor said:

I think it will be closer than people think

I don't. I think there will at least be three states voting no - and probably not by small margins. My state will likely be one of them. 

At this stage, it's easier to be despondent in advance. 

Crazy. We are going to have get accustomed to this I'm afraid - will be the norm for Western Canada and across the country. 

The Okanagan is also on fire. 

For anyone missing the Ashes (everyone here), a good series debrief (with a mix of pro-Aussie/England voices):

Jeez. Australia looked like they had the series sewn up there.

Nice send off for Broad. Amazing series overall. 

5 hours ago, Raja said:

My boy Todd hit Wood out of the attack?

I need to watch this

Fun fact - Murphy was primarily a batter as a youth cricketer and a handy medium-pacer. He hasn't been bowling spin for very long!

I think it's hard to really understate how massive the Lyon injury was. Australia looked the superior team to me in the first two tests and were good value for the lead. England then came roaring back when they had pace from both ends and could control the tempo with their aggressive batting. 

A few stray comments on individual performances:

• A pretty poor series for Jimmy. Strike rate of 171 says it all. He doesn't deserve his place on form. 
• An even worse series for Boland!
• Who picked Crawley as top run-scorer for the series after four tests(?!)
• Smith still a master but his average has dipped to 58. That's the lowest it's been since the mid 2010s. 
• Pleasing to see Woakes and Wood do well.

50 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I'm just starting to try and get into the cricket again. One thing I've always wondered is what's up with the pitch. All those different coloured strips of grass. Do they cut and move the wickets about? 

Pitch preparation is a weird thing. Basically the idea is to use a combination of mowing, rolling and watering to get the following result:

• Grass not too long that there is too much lateral movement for fast bowlers (achieved through mowing)
• Grass not too short or dry that it dies and you are basically left with dirt/dust (achieved through watering)
• Pitch flat and even enough to have decent bounce and not too much inconsistent height (achieved through rolling)

And of course, you have to factor in things like the soil type and weather into the above.

The reason for the moving of the wickets is to give the grass from a used wicket the chance to recover. If you use the same strip too much, the grass will just die (this happens a lot in Australian backyards, where a lot of cricket is played!)

Run rate for the Crawley/Root partnership is nearly 10!

Australia a shadow of their usual selves without Lyon.

This is an amazing opportunity for England to get a huge lead and boss the test match.

#Paxter's Curse

On 7/13/2023 at 10:37 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

I get to Canada about once a year, for work, but limited to Ottawa unfortunately. It would be nice to meet come Canada folks one day. I now have family-in-law living there since my son got married, so maybe one day I'll make a social call to Canada.

Ottawa is an...interesting place to live. Not my cup of tea but some people seem to like it. If you ever make it to Toronto, let me know.

Meanwhile, support for everyone's (least?) favorite constitutional amendment has officially collapsed. The latest Newspoll was quite shocking. This one is bordering on a lost cause now. I think I would probably prefer that it not proceed at this point. 

12 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I've never met anyone from here IRL, and I don't know why I feel nervous about doing it (part of it is being an introvert no doubt). Unfortunately I don't live in Wellington anymore, but my work is still technically based there and I am in town every week. If timing works out I would be down for an initially nervous and awkward, but hopefully eventually fun and interesting meet up.

@Ser Camaris was among the first boarders I met in person. I can attest to his kindness, patience and humility.

@Stubby took my board virginity though. He was gentle.

Oh and the Government has made its move. Insider Bullock gets the nod and will be our first female Governor. Lowe takes the fall though didn't really do anything more wrong than any other central banker or economist globally.

Good to see you posting again Ser Cam - a ghost from forums past :P.

Speaking of ghosts, I wonder where @gryphon strike is these days?

Sideshow: I assume Bullock is going to be announced as RBA governor. Dutton seems to vehemently oppose the other frontrunners. Lowe will not get a second term, I think for his clunky communication as much as actual monetary policy decisions. 

Yeah I think it’s pretty even or maybe advantage Australia.

I’m pleased for Woakes - Australia has definitely been his bogey side so it’s good to see him show his class in this match.

If England do go 3-0 down, I think it would be safe to say that the margin flatters Aus. Though they’ve won a lot of the “big moments” they haven’t been dominant by any stretch of the imagination.

Imagine if Wood and Archer had played these first three tests.

Urgh such a shame Root can’t bat at 3. Sacrificing Brook at the top of the order is a complete waste.

Turning into an OK day for Australia in the end.

Fantastic counter-attacking ton from the much-maligned Mitchell Marsh.

V happy for him.