Kalbear

For me it was always the first day that I get to actually leave work when it's daylight. I love that. Don't love the actual time shift, but dusk starting on 7PM is a big win.

Requiem for a Dream is a movie that I will never willingly watch again and I wouldn't say it's bad because of that. The notion that you have to see it many times seems like a very weird criteria for best picture.

I'm just amused at Barkley to the Eagles, which is both a great example of why you don't draft RBs that high and the Eagles also likely to be sucking a bit.

Ah, the fabled 'if you don't think something is good you can't criticize it unless you have a better plan' argument. I'm sure you'll inform me of what fallacy that represents. I'm saying that running on the economy being great when your own supporters are not really agreeing with you - at least a lot of them - is a good way to alienate the people who you need to vote the most. And those are people that Biden is already losing too many of. As to how I would oppose Trump - the problem is not really Trump; there are not going to be a ton of voters that are going to be convinceable to vote one way or another. The problem is getting the same people who voted last time to vote again against Trump. As mentioned having a conviction would help that some but that's almost certainly not going to happen. I think you need to remind everyone more and more of what Trump did that was so bad, especially to the people who really care. You need to constantly hammer the Muslim ban. You need to constantly hammer the abortion rights rescinded and his pledge to go even further. You have to show how he kept siding with Putin. You have to push on him wanting to get rid of the ACA again. And then you'll probably have to go a bit further and give people some hope for the future that the party and the country can be set up for success and have some vision beyond 'not Trump', because the folks who have soured on Biden have done so because of things like Israel and Afghanistan and student loans and monetary inflation and have seen that it still isn't good enough.

Look, I've talked with him a lot and @polishgenius has more experience playing Hearts of Iron IV than Putin or Zelensky. He knows what he's talking about. Let him cook.

Maybe? Guess he should try and bring gas prices down there, then. A couple points. First - why people feel like things kind of suck right now, and saying 'the economy is awesome' sounds flawed - because they can look at things like gas prices right now and say 'no, they aren't great'. Second, because a lot of the messaging is going to be currently going to bolster enthusiasm of dems and those prices in urban areas are higher, so once again saying how the economy is going great isn't really true. If the only thing I said was about gas prices this would hit a lot harder. It's real telling to me that you're focusing heavily on the gas price thing when the bigger issue is on housing and debt costs, but sure, keep fucking that chicken. Rural prices largely don't matter because these are places Biden isn't going to win anyway. Biden needs to win in urban areas and absolutely dominate in turnout, and the problems of very large housing costs, increasing debt and the increased inflation on things that people regularly see on their day to day experiences hurts enthusiasm there.

They're $3.21. Not that they are going to go for Biden either, mind you. The other thing to point out is that this pedantic and hyperfocused view on one point is real valuable but it misses the other part - even if they were the same under Trump (they weren't, but if), they still are high for most people. It is a daily reminder things aren't great for people. Still, though, I think the cost of money causing both credit cards and housing buys to go up and the idea of buying a home being effectively impossible for even dual earners is one of the major reasons people aren't happy about the economy despite the economy being good - and both of those things are not part of what is being tracked as part of inflation. Interesting to me they were part of inflation back in the 70s and were dropped

I don't think comparing the prices to what they were when Obama was potus is quite the win you think it is. I'm sure that will make south Carolinians line up to vote for biden

Nationally, sure. In the places that dems actually live, not so much. And that will only get worse this summer. Not that it really matters if you're right - $3.40 a gallon is still higher than it was 4.years ago, and is still a daily reminder things are expensive.

A renegade Russian idiot isn't being directly financed by the west, didn't need to amass forces nearby Russia, and still didn't do any real damage worth a damn. If that's your goal - waste a major bunch of forces and get them killed in Russia for no gain while they get blown apart by Russian helicopters and aircraft - then sure! They've done thousands of drones. Russia has a lot of antidrone defenses now. Another way to say it is that if you are coming in with some incredible insight that clearly should be easy and doable chances are that either you're deliberately ignoring other concerns (like allies) or you simply don't understand something pretty fundamental. Or, in your case, both.

I think that this misses some of the pain folks are seeing and is going to be seen as too dismissive. The big pain points that I hear and see repeatedly are that housing is broadly way too expensive for everyone across the board, and that the cost of daily things is too high. It's good that unemployment is low and inflation is being reduced, but when people are paying $4 a gallon for gas, paying $1k per month more for houses than they did 4 years ago, they're paying more in credit card debt and fast food costs twice as much as it used to - that's going to be hard to argue that the economy is doing well. It isn't for them.

It's especially good because presumably Wilson signed a minimum deal - because any money Pittsburgh pays him goes against what Denver owes him. Getting him on a vet minimum salary + potential bonuses is probably pretty awesome.

Still one of my favorite days of the year

No, you were clear. It's just a really stupid idea. It wouldn't be a 2-3 day operation, it would cost a massive amount of material and lives, it would be easily detectable and counterable via Russia, and most importantly it would make virtually every ally hesitate or outright stop giving Ukraine any help. Because it is a clear escalation, and Russia would among other things start seriously considering escalating by attacking the allied depots and supplies from Poland since now its all fair game.

Ah, okay. My apologies for misremembering. I guess I don't disagree with a number of the characters and their viewpoints, though I think part of their personality being grating is intentional. Especially both Lae'zel and Shadowheart - Shadowheart is supposed to be a brainwashed cultist who had her real life stolen from her, so her acting this way makes sense and is part of the beats of her story. Lae'zel is similarly inclined, and you can make massive changes to her viewpoints because of it. Both are supposed to be a bit weird and alien, and you're kind of supposed to feel a bit alienated, IMO. Astarion is supposed to be, well, kind of evil and represents a more interesting and entertaining evil than the previous BG characters in your party - to the point that he can be part of a good campaign if you want him to. But also I hated his ass from the start and it took my wife and my daughter to convince me to let him live after he threatens to kill you. It's worth it - his story beats are pretty awesome, and he has some great scenes - but again, him alienating people is kind of his deal. As to the emperor and that whole storyline - I really love that he is this sociopath and you can discover this - or you can go along with it and be a total freak! Having the person helping you from the start being a Secret Evil Thing is a pretty big deal for D&D campaigns.

Just curious because I think you mentioned you don't like the voice acting or don't see why it matters - are you playing the English version? Because I get how a lot of the characters aren't nice at all - especially astarion - but they're also incredibly entertaining at times because of their voice work and acting. Like this.

@DMC has returned as the prophecy foretold! Lisan al Gaib!

You can get hirelings, one of every class, and can pick everything about them just like the others. I don't know why you would want to do that when gale and astarion and shadowheart are pretty entertaining, and laezel is awesome, but you have that choice.

It is, in the sense that you're epically wrong about both

Hmm. So first we'd have to say what winning is, but going back to pre-2022 borders seems like the most reasonable set - which means Crimea remains in the hands of Russia. In order for Ukraine to do that they'd have to take all of Donetsk and Luhansk. That is, IIRC, something like 500 miles of fortified land at a depth of 10-30 km, with multiple levels of minefields, covering artillery, covering air support and countermeasures. That is a very difficult thing to break through, especially since there is little area to flank even with a breakthrough. So how do they do that? They would need to neutralize artillery in a large area and neutralize airpower in a large area while carrying out difficult clearing of mines, defenses and trenches. To do that, they'd need to have a significant advantage in artillery - either with major long-range attacks or major firepower, or both - and then the ability to either engage Russian airpower or make the whole area so threatening to airpower that even indirect fire can't be used to hit the clearing troops - this would mean controlling the airspace for hundreds of miles around. Alternately, they need to be able to do all of this clearing while taking massive sustained casualties. And after that, they need to have the troop strength and equipment strength to repel the counterattacks and reinforcements. Given the casualty rates and equipment losses you're looking at likely more breaching/demining equipment than has been supplied by the west for the entire duration of the war, you're looking at a large amount of aircraft + pilots, you're looking at ECM systems and anti-air systems with significantly longer range than has been provided so far, and you're probably looking at a major troop mobilization. And that still doesn't stop one of the bigger issues - Russia simply being able to attack from their border.

The volume is a filmmaking system that replaces green screen by effectively projecting things around the actors and displays images from the cameras perspective. It is used a lot in star wars TV shows and other genre shows - the live action avatar the last Airbender uses it. And it's clear from the trailer that fallout doesn't nearly as much - there are a lot more true outside shots, a lot more practical effects (like all of the power armor).

Good long-form article on how Ukraine lost 3 Abrams In a defensive standoff. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/07/in-berdychi-ukraines-m-1-abrams-tanks-made-their-last-stand-and-halted-the-russian-advance/?sh=41fa2b7e4e70

Fallout looks absolutely perfect. It's remarkable how...well, cheap a lot of the Volume stuff looks compared to when they don't use it.

Just to back this up a bit: recent polling indicates about 2/3rds of people in the US support a ceasefire: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/2/27/voters-support-the-us-calling-for-permanent-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-conditioning-military-aid-to-israel Interesting to me is that for the most part democrats approve of Biden's handling and Republicans are the ones who are most strongly disapproving, though what Biden could have done to gain the approval there is a bit odd. I don't think there are a lot of voters who view Israel as their single most important issue but they certainly do exist. That said most of them are likely to be in the Republican camp already. And cynically, those who aren't voting Republican now almost certainly live in states that their loss won't matter. Mostly, I would say that for most voters (R and D alike) Israel and Palestine are not their most important or even top 5 issue unless the war somehow affects them directly. Same is true for Ukraine, same was true for Afghanistan. Unfortunately for Biden the people who consider it their #1 issue also have a large presence in a number of swing states. So...maybe it's better for Biden to go harder towards those voters? Because it ain't like California or New York are going Trump any time soon.

I just assumed that most of the South are with Stilgar or are going to go along with them because, well, there are a lot. Most of the North ones are going to go with Chani, at least eventually. I would bet the Fedaykin are going to. Chani also has a very special set of information here; she has spent the most time with Paul, knows that he says he doesn't want to be a Messiah, etc - and Chani is feeling especially betrayed. Not just because of his relationship with the Fremen, but with his relationship with her. That's why the final straw is taking Irulan as his wife and telling her nothing.