IheartIheartTesla

Its probably from RCP's, which is pretty much an average that takes all polls into consideration regardless of quality and does a brute force average (I checked, and its about +3.9 right now). 538.com on the other hand has some secret sauce they use to weight polls and its around +6.5 right now. I think if you look at historic data the RCP average trends lower than the 538 'average'. At any rate, who knows what the actual lead is. Everyone is just guessing at a turnout model right now, and also trying to reconcile these numbers with special election numbers that show actual people turning up, but are also...well, 'special'. I guess the primaries must also have given a bit of a hint though.

I voted in the Michigan primary this morning, Not too many choices on the ballot...I counted two competitive races on the D side, including governor. It is a pretty important election year, since the R's have a supermajority here, but Snyder has very poor approval ratings so the governorship may be up for the taking.

Amazon prime every Friday is a foolproof solution to this problem that even baby Jesus doesnt hate.

Tomorrow is primary day for Michigan. The most interesting race (for me at least) is for governor, where we have Shri Thanedar (purportedly a progressive), Gretchen Whitmer (establishment) and Abdul El-Sayed (also progressive) on the D side. I've made up my mind already (not hard to guess who it is lol), but it would be interesting to see if the polls manage to capture what is actually happening. As I've mentioned numerous times, MI is really tough to poll, and with it being a primary with lower voter turn out, anything can happen. The one bad thing about MI primaries is you cant cross-vote across party lines, because there are a few Republicans who are more horrible than others that I would probably vote against if I could.

Shouldn;t that be median person?

Slippery slope to registering your pet scorpions.

Will Tucker Carlson ask why his son needs to fight in and around Iran to protect Trump's reputation?

So this is how it is to live in tumultuous times (as I imagine the lead up to WWII and including, as well as much of the 60s would have been). It isn't as fun and exciting as I thought, and is actually quite a drudge.

Does that mean Flake will vote against mini-Scalia? Not holding my breath. I also saw Rand Paul make some noises, but he'll probably fold as well. Also, I am keeping track of the generic House ballot, it looks like its about D+8.5-9, which is a clear 2 points gain since say last month. Things are looking up a bit for retaking the House.

What a boring non-story. From what I've learned, Kavanaugh is like a kinder, gentler Scalia but will probably vote very similar to him (particularly when it comes to reproductive rights etc,,). He also isn't a climate change denier (very much the opposite), but at the same time he has a history of voting against the EPA ...something to do with him believing Congress needs to pass laws rather than the EPA work by "fiat".

It is perfectly legal to conceal your identify when you go to a rally. This kind of sloppy reasoning like "what possible reason could you have to hide your identity and then cause trouble" basically elides the fact that it is the "causing trouble" part that should be tackled (and already is by existing laws). By the same logic, "what possible reason could you have to carry a gun if not to kill other people?" could be used to outlaw all firearms too.

Next time stick to McDonald's. They have play areas specifically built for situations like these.

Thanks Mexal. I knew only the bare bones of the ICE/CBP story and the various arms of ICE and your post has fleshed it our for me. My own interest stemmed from an ACLU Facebook post where they highlighted a woman who was on a Greyhound bus in Nevada that was boarded by CBP officers, and she stood them down by mentioning they were nowhere near 100 miles from a border. The same post also mentioned Michigan was entirely covered, which was interesting to me since I live here. Nonetheless, Greyhound buses are privately owned and you need a ticket to get on it, so it isnt a 'public' space. Therefore, Greyhound does not need to consent to CBP to search their buses, and the fact that they did means I will not support them any longer.

Yes, so its important to know your rights when you get a visit from the border patrol. Especially when the agents themselves may not. For instance, no searching of your premises or your car without a warrant or reasonable suspicion.

I think there is a path for Democrats in terms of strategy to make significant gains with young women and Latinos for the upcoming elections. For young women, a new Supreme Court pick would mean an unprecedented attack on their rights (more so than what has happened till now), and for many Latinos, I presume the "abolish ICE" approach is gaining traction (although I cant be sure of this). I am interested in the latter, and what middle road the Democrats will take to screw themselves out of the maximum number of voters. They haven't proved to be very good at threading the needle to keep the different wings of their party happy. I think some sort of approach to break ICE down into more an enforcement agency rather than a (extra)-judicial one as well may help. Speaking of, apparently ICE (or one of those agencies) has jurisdiction about 100 miles from an international border. They have tried to claim the Great Lakes as a border, so nearly the entirety of Michigan is supposed to be in their purview. This is entirely a debatable point, so if it does happen to you, dont let them search your car (for instance).