IheartIheartTesla

I just took a (quick) look at Morning Consult, and their most recent poll claims to have 10000 RV responders. So their need to adjust for demographics is less than other pollsters. Regarding vote-splitting, a poll is a snapshot in time for now, and a barometer of how people are feeling, so it is entirely possible folks are hypothetically vote splitting right now, but wont come election day. In which case we'll see movement in the polls too.

Those PACs and the Trump campaign dont have a magic ball either, so you'd have to wonder how they are making that kind of judgment in what should be a close race. I am using the polls as a baseline, not the final result. If they are all saying the same thing (and ignoring herding effects for now) such as a tight race in the battleground states, then I'd at least take notice.

I'll wait until after both conventions to gauge where Biden is. Right now it is concerning but the national polls are essentially tied, which (weird to say it) isnt an insurmountable place to be. I'm a bit more concerned that the Biden campaign is a bit dismissive of the polls, hopefully they can take a look at the crosstabs and shore up support to where it needs to be (young people, PoC). Regrading poll methodology itself, they've underestimated Trump support in two cycles (2016/2020). Its possible they are overcompensating this cycle and indeed its Biden who will overperform. Wish we knew more though.

There is a new set of polls from NYT/Siena focusing on the battleground states, and it found that Trump is leading in most of them. I do have to note that they are a bit more favorable to him than other polls, so I wonder if they have gone the other direction in terms of underestimating his strength. Focusing on Michigan for a moment, switching from an RV to LV screen moves it from a Trump +7 to a Biden +1 (if you look only at those 2 candidates). Thats a big swing, particularly at this point in the game, and you dont see that in other states. In the elections of yore RV to LV would bump the GoP by ~3-4 points. Anyway, still a ways to go.

Protests aren't for convincing people, they are to show the powers-that-be there is enough critical mass for them to take the concerns of the protestors seriously. Of course, if you frame the debate the way you want to, then yes, its not the greatest way to convince 'people' since by its nature it causes inconvenience.

Protests 'work' mostly if the administration or power-that-be are somewhat amenable to reason. There's enough historical evidence for this, from the Indian independence struggle (re the British government), the civil rights movement and JFK/LBJ and hopefully more recently the Biden administration. On the flip side you have the BLM/Floyd protests and the civil rights movements where the Trump administration and the southern state governments were recalcitrant. In that case its more keeping the momentum going and having a show of support. Both are legitimate aims though.

The polls are showing Biden and Trump essentially tied right now, so would be nice to see the former making some gains soon. Amusingly, Lichtman's keys to the White House seemed to suggest Biden has a strong shot at reelection, but ...meh, thats just grasping at straws, and apart from the lowish relevance it gives to economic variables, some of the other keys are a bit shaky as well.

The bathos doesnt bother me as much as the galaxy-ending crisis every season dealt with, and the intrepid Disco crew were the only ones who could handle it. For some reason Paul Stamets (the mycelial scientist) is showing up on my FB feeds a lot. Believe he just did a podcast with Rogan, that might be it.

The 1968 Democratic convention was absolute chaos, the Democrats themselves were in disarray, Bobby Kennedy had just been assassinated, and Daley used excessive force in trying to clamp down on protestors. The US was also directly involved in Vietnam. There are a few differences with now, for starters the Democrats are by and large united, and police tactics are (believe it or not) more evolved than then. I think another analogy to consider is how much the George Floyd/BLM protests from a few years ago persuaded voters. I think we'll see that responses to campus unrest are already baked into many people's voting preferences.

Don't know why Modi is getting so desperate (in the Indian elections going on now). Most opinion polls place the ruling NDA alliance comfortably at 350 seats or maybe more (out of 543). His most recent speech was also the most incendiary, but those in the US used to Trump's dog whistles and straight up whistles will find much in common with what Modi said.

Trump is visiting about 10 miles from where I live on May 1. Doesnt seem to be too much excitement about it, but I imagine he'll still get ~10k folks going to the rally like he did last time.

I have absolutely no profound thoughts to add on this topic, but whenever I think of AI art I think of Data from Star Trek painting on an oil canvas, or playing the violin where he is programmed with the techniques of 200 masters. He is critiqued for the latter of having no style of his own, but still, he made Sarek cry once.....

His stance on climate change has flipped, and he's now way to the right of Biden on that issue. Cant imagine many progressives would be compelled to vote for him.

I was just coming here to post that, but see I was too late. Eventually 3rd (and more) party support does wane towards November, so we'd expect the effect, whichever way it goes, to also be smaller down the line. Still, every bit helps, and RFK Jr is actually on the ballot in Michigan (havent checked other swing states).

Haley got 150k votes, which is not insubstantial. It may not mean much....but interesting that Republicans are still registering their displeasure with their choice.

No, its a mental one for me, but I always run through it before leaving the house and before checking out at a hotel. For non-Americans, everything else indeed can be purchased, but not prescription medication. There are some emergency vacation supplies you might be able to wrangle at the holiday destination, but I want never to be in that position.

Waiting on the results of the PA primary to see what lessons we can learn. Again, its going to be the number of Haley voters (she's still on the ballot I believe) and 'uncommitted' write-ins against Biden.

This is all very boring and jejune for a dating thread, but here goes anyway. I have a checklist for travel always, usually its meds, electronics (like chargers, very important), toiletries and clothing. Everything else indeed is a want. For instance, protection and sex toys can and should be purchased on site. No need to give the fascist goons manning security any reason to stop you or judge you.

Looks like the Indian elections will have 970 million eligible voters, so that would easily be 500+ million actually voting. But not my parents, since they moved states recently and its a pain to get on the rolls. Not sure their 2 votes would have made a difference to Modi's juggernaut though.

Just to be clear, Ozempic is the version of semaglutide that is specifically geared towards diabetes, while Wegovy is the (only?) one approved for weight loss. I take the former, but cant say I've been overrun by a case of the toots. Thats pure cheeto energy.

I'm sad about LD ending, but I believe they also announced that SNW was renewed for a fourth season. I'm guessing cold, hard cash is at the center of a lot of these decisions.

Yes, and I think the statistics bear that out in that most successful relationships tend to be with partners in the same socioeconomic class. Also, in terms of preference its fairly common, which most people have internalized. Although I have to point out one of my favorite Onion headlines "Woman Relieved Soulmate Turned Out To Be In Same Socioeconomic Bracket"

"Pays the same marginal tax rate as me" is my solution to broaden her dating pool, and best hope the US doesn't adopt a flat income tax rate anytime soon.

Funnily enough, Canada provided India with a nuclear reactor (CIRUS) that eventually generated enough plutonium for the latter's first nuclear test in 1974. Mostly without the knowledge of the former of course, but they had their suspicions. There are other nations using Canadian nuclear technology mostly for power production, I think safeguards were put in place to prevent use for other stuff. I grew up...about 2 miles from where the CIRUS reactor was.

I mean, sitting through 6 hours of baseball* would be equally dull, if you're not into people ambling across a diamond (occasionally). The things we do for lust, eh? *pick your boring sportsball game of choice