ThinkerX

To nobody's great surprise -

Texas federal court will not adopt policy against 'judge shopping' (msn.com)

GOP might be in serious trouble. Democrat wins deep red district on abortion rights and IVF message. I figure this has a good chance of spreading because GOP politicians will continue to push for horrible things.

Democrat who ran heavily on abortion rights, IVF wins Alabama special election (msn.com)

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) detected in some sick dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, and maybe New Mexico. No evidence that the virus is likely to further jump the species barrier to people. Almost certainly wild birds carrying the virus pooping on the cattle feed as they fly overhead. Pasteurisation kills the virus so as long as you aren't big into drinking raw milk the risk of exposure is very low, even from milk from those farms, so long as you are not working on one of those farms.

I have seen scattered reports of a rapidly spreading disease in Japan, affecting mostly older people, with a 30% fatality rate. I figure it is only a matter of time before it reaches the US...

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Of course, with appeal and whatnot it won't matter as he'll be able to get 3bn in money in a few short months anyway. 

To me, that 'deal' is looking more and more like a scam. Trump's media outlet has been bleeding money from day one and was never valued anywhere close to a billion dollars. Plus, the whole NYC civil/criminal trial revolved around Trump falsely inflating property values. Might be interesting to see who gets burned when it blows up and what actions they might take.

Given the recent attacks, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine might not attempt some sort of invasion or major attack in Crimea. Keep Putin chasing phantom terrorists and militias, keep blowing up refineries so the Russian advance stalls with supply issues, and with Russia well and truly distracted, somehow land several thousand troops on Crimea. 

51 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

More incoherent than now?

yes. Utterly incoherent. As in not being able to communicate verbally,

I might not have been clear. By 'mental collapse,' I meant something along the lines of Aphasia - an inability to speak coherently at all.

Okay...

So... NYC can start seizing Trump's property to pay his fine come March 25.

As I understand it, a major part of Trump's self-image is tied up with him being a successful billionaire real estate mogul. NYC confiscating his properties is a major blow to that self-image. And Trump has already been displaying increasing indicators of 'cognitive decline.' Add the one to the other...

A mental collapse of some sort - something really blatantly obvious even to most of Trump's followers?

Or maybe this is where Trump openly - as on national television - calls for the assassination of the relevant judge and DA? (This is Trump, after all.)

At this point, I expect the 2024 general election to be a sort of blurry carbon copy of the 2020 general election, with the same result - Biden wins, the Democrats retain the Senate and take the House.

2 hours ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

There's also rules about how Trump can raise the money. My understanding is some rich foreign party can't just come in and cover the bill.

A minor technicality like that wouldn't even slow Trump down.

By now, the 'true market value' (if there is such an animal) of at least Trump's NYC properties must be known to the relevant courts. I wonder if they have potential buyers lined up - or if there have been any serious inquiries.

That said, I agree that Trump is almost certainly on the hook to a (hostile) foreign power for the one bond and will be again should the money for the other miraculously appear in the next few days. Trump loses the relevant appeals and the presidential election...

44 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah this is what I was going to say.  If you think Tish James is going to back off or strike some sort of deal for pennies on the dollar after she put her career on the line for this case -- and won -- then you really don't understand Tish James.

Could Trump take that kind of hit - I am assuming asset forfeiture -and still remain viable. Or even 'rich?'

If these Russian oil refineries keep getting bombed, then that could cripple Russia's entire economy - and their war effort.

I have to wonder...

Will these Russian Rebels be able to take Belgorod? And what will Putin's reaction be should they do so?

Also, I wonder if the Russian Rebels are actively recruiting on Russian soil, and if so, how much that will swell their ranks. If this starts to snowball...

8 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

538 wrote an article today about how polls in this stage didnt correlate all that well with general election results, but if was mostly unconvincing (not sure historical data from the 70s has much relevance in this cycle - we need in-cycle explanations). Still, the point they made about the Biden campaign publicly dissing polls was a good one, there is still time to turn this around as long as the problem is recognized. I hope the internal discussions are different.

One thing that is concerning is two cycles now where Trump numbers were underestimated. Is that being overcorrected for this cycle? Hard to say, but the average of polls can still be biased because of some hidden variable. Or it could be the underestimation is true this cycle too, in which case ....Biden is in some trouble.

More and more, I suspect the polls showing Trump ahead of Biden are manipulated somehow - a suspicion reinforced by Trump putting up altered/fake mainstream media articles on his site.

All those artillery shells going off in relatively small areas - those areas are likely to be 'dead zones' for decades. Maybe longer...

Looks like Ukraine aid might sneak through Congress after all - though it might cost the current speaker his job:

House Republicans will pass Ukraine aid after backing down on border demand (msn.com)

MTG is coming across as a Russian stooge.

Russia trying to build railways around sanctions:

Russia's grand railway plan to get around Western sanctions is about to get even bigger (msn.com)

I am reminded of the old Axis powers prior to WWII.

And then there were two...

Another Republican congress critter announced his retirement before the 2024 election, dropping the Republican House majority to just two seats.

One of my predictions for this year was that the House had a 50-50 shot of changing hands through sheer attrition and Republican incompetence before the election.

Colorado Rep. Ken Buck resigning from Congress, narrowing GOP majority (msn.com)

I will refrain from commenting about the cross-border incursions. 

I will note that Team Biden somehow managed to get a 300 million military aid package for Ukraine approved. Not much, but better than nothing.

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

I wouldn't put too much hope into this. It's a presidential election year; those other races don't matter. Anyone who shows up to vote for Trump will also vote for the down-ticket Republicans.

If Trump wins, Republicans will also win Congress, Senate, and competitive state races. If Biden wins, Democrats will win Congress, state races... and still lose the Senate, although not as badly.

Putting everything they can spare in the presidential race is the smartest play for both parties.

I am not so sure of this. From where I am standing, the Republicans stand to lose control of the House and fail to take the Senate regardless of who becomes POTUS. Mostly, this will be because of Republican incumbents doubling down on horrible policies and laws - but a lack of campaign money will also play into it. 

I figure the D's will flip a number of R seats deemed 'safe' - House and Senate both.

14 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Here is an article about Trump's takeover of the RNC.

Donald Trump’s newly installed leadership team at the Republican National Committee on Monday began the process of pushing out dozens of officials, according to two people close to the Trump campaign and the RNC.

All told, the expectation is that more than 60 RNC staffers who work across the political, communications and data departments will be let go. Those being asked to resign include five members of the senior staff, though the names were not made public. Additionally, some vendor contracts are expected to be cut......Trump’s campaign took over operational control of the RNC on Monday. On Friday, former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley was elected the RNC’s new chair, and Trump daughter-in-law Lara Trump was elected as co-chair. Both had Trump’s endorsement. Additionally, Trump senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita was named as the RNC’s new chief of staff.

Bloodbath at RNC: Trump team slashes staff at committee - POLITICO

This is where Trump steals all the campaign money he can lay his hands on crippling Republican incumbents across the county, and possibly handing safe seats to Democrats. And his base will cheer. 

Taylor Swift will rally the youth vote, and the vast majority of those she sways will vote D. Even my apolitical daughter took a look at 'Project 47,' which she thought was hilariously evil. 

I have noticed something odd in perusing the comments for articles and social media posts pertaining to Taylor Swift's involvement in politics. The Trump fans, contrary to their usual crude and hostile selves are reluctant in the extreme to attack her directly - almost no name-calling or crude threats, just 'she should stay out of politics.' It is almost like they are afraid of her. 

As to Biden being too old, that is what Harris is for - something far too many people forget, here and elsewhere.

8 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Ukraine already launches drones into Russia with great effect. So that is certainly a good tactic. 
Behind the curtains they have probably asked western supporters if they can use some equipment for attacks on Russia itself(such as long range weaponry), so far only Finland has agreed to that, this could change over time, but not anytime soon IMHO…which makes any larger ground attack into Russia suicidal…

Taking a city such as Belgorod is always extremely difficult due to the nature of urban warfare, they could easily be cut off. And then Belgorod isn’t a significant slice of Russia, less than Rochester NY is a significant slice of the USA…

As said by various posters there are way too many downsides to such an operation compared to the possible benefits for it to be implemented…

Again, the idea would be to destroy the infrastructure in a large area around Belgorod. Russia would be unable to stop that. They would use Russian equipment, and maybe the Russian POW militias for this. Destroying several hundred bridges, factories, locomotives, and power plants would put that entire part of Russia in a bind.

And yet a renegade Russian idiot with an army came close to capturing Moscow last summer. That shows just how weak the Russian defenses are. The trick is to exploit that weakness.

A perpetual defensive war is a losing proposition for Ukraine. They want victory, then at some point, they need to go on the offense. If not with an actual army, then maybe several thousand drones targeting Russian infrastructure.