Universal Sword Donor

That is all true, but none of that actually makes the connections anything but overly tenuous and assumed in a fictional society of tens of millions of people.

Because it's a society with tens of millions of people and the connections are overly tenuous or assumed.

This doesn't seem likely at all, especially given the tens of millions of people in Westeros

They can be understood but not always bargained with. They do not bargain with the lamb men because they do not have to. They do bargain with the free cities because the free cities provide money, food, arms, et al in return for slaves (and also have defenses and high walls).

Never thought about it that way, but its like the Love Boat, except no love, just rape and pillage

If you take away the negative connotation around the word "savages," the dothraki are pretty awful. They practice widespread slavery, rape, and genocide. They don't have written language or really any kind of civilization building attributes. They *were* good at warfare until they either lost their edge* or the cities of Essos figured out it was easier to pay them off. Just because we see more of their culture through Dany's eyes doesn't actually make them decent.

It's not specifically mentioned but they do not appear to have any offspring, per the wiki or the AWOIAF

Tywin hates Tyrion because he killed Joanna, the one person in the world Tywin actually loved. Him being an asshole dwarf he makes a fool of the family is a distant second. Tywin is willing to overlook the latter once he realizes Jaime is as good as dead. Cersei tries to mirror Tywin wherever possible and she specifically cites it as a reason to hate him.

The scene in GoT lays it out pretty nicely: "If Cersei cannot curb the boy, you must. And if these councillors are playing us false …" Tyrion knew. "Spikes," he sighed. "Heads. Walls." "I see you have taken a few lessons from me." "More than you know, Father," Tyrion answered quietly. He finished his wine and set the cup aside, thoughtful. A part of him was more pleased than he cared to admit. Another part was remembering the battle upriver, and wondering if he was being sent to hold the left again. "Why me?" he asked, cocking his head to one side. "Why not my uncle? Why not Ser Addam or Ser Flement or Lord Serrett? Why not a … bigger man?" Lord Tywin rose abruptly. "You are my son." That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime's good as dead, so I'm all you have left. Heir and a spare is a turn of phrase for a reason, and Tyrion is nothing if not a Lannister of Casterly Rock and, as Genna says: "Jaime," she said, tugging on his ear, "sweetling, I have known you since you were a babe at Joanna's breast. You smile like Gerion and fight like Tyg, and there's some of Kevan in you, else you would not wear that cloak . . . but Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. I said so once to your father's face, and he would not speak to me for half a year.

How would you frame Nestor for the murder when he’s at the gates or the eyrie when Jon is poisoned in KL.

The Mormont "stronghold" is a wooden longhall. We don't even know if it has walls or a palisade.

Ibben is on the other side of the world. Everyone either dies or goes home before getting there. Basilisk isles are on the other side of the world. Everyone either dies of the bugs and diseases or goes home before getting there. Summer islands are also very far away, but they're a fairly martial people. It wouldn't go well for the Westerosi but they could probably conquer but not keep the islands

It's also really not worth taking. "Would that I might forget him," Ned said bluntly. The Mormonts of Bear Island were an old house, proud and honorable, but their lands were cold and distant and poor. "My home was a great disappointment to Lynesse. It was too cold, too damp, too far away, my castle no more than a wooden longhall." My home . . . you must understand that to understand the rest. Bear Island is beautiful, but remote. Imagine old gnarled oaks and tall pines, flowering thornbushes, grey stones bearded with moss, little creeks running icy down steep hillsides. The hall of the Mormonts is built of huge logs and surrounded by an earthen palisade. Aside from a few crofters, my people live along the coasts and fish the seas. The island lies far to the north, and our winters are more terrible than you can imagine, If Ned AND Ser Jorah are both like "yeah it kinda sucks and its poor," Balon was probably smart enough -- as damning with faint praise as that is -- to leave it alone.

She's insanely disciplined. The training she gets in the temple is ridiculously thorough, insanely hard, and she stays well after being offered multiple chances to leave. She spends years learning multiple languages, pickpocketing and fighting skills, and ostensibly how to change her face magically while still inwardly retaining her allegiance as a Stark who's going home to avenge her family. There can be many things said of Arya, but her being undisciplined by WoW is not one of them.

Tommen wouldn’t be in the main line or inheritance but he’d absolutely be in line to inherit if Shireen passed without issue. As far as the realm knows he’s her closest male relative.

Tommen is definitely in line for in but theoretically he would be after shireen, and there's a strong chance they would be married to consolidate the familial claims.

Is Cat being Arya any less likely?

Having a sexual identify is very much something that exists, and a homosexual identity is very much frowned upon. There is a reason why people whisper that Oberyn beds men and women or that Lyn Corbray likes boys. The KG are supposed to have a *noted* lack of sexual identity and those who violate it are noted (both positively and negatively). The Seven treat homosexuality and incest as a sin and went to war with the Targaryens over it.

It's either Arya or Aerys' fourth child with Joanna Lannister. Hard to say really

The higher-ups in the council and the royal family seems to know. Varys, Cersei, Stannis, LF, Jaime all either allude to knowing or say it out loud. Mace and Olenna were aware of Renly, and, by proxy, Renly as well. Garlan seemed to know, which would make sense. Agreed it makes sense Robert knew and didn't care or just didn't know.

If we're pre-war, Renly would likely keep SE, but Tommen would likely be heir until Renly had one of his own (if he marries). Tywin would still be trying to get Jaime out of the KG and Tommen would likely be heir or heir in waiting if Jaime does become Lord of CR.

The vassals sworn to the Glovers are noted woodsmen: The army covered twenty-two miles the first day, by the reckoning of the guides Lady Sybelle had given them, trackers and hunters sworn to Deepwood with clan names like Forrester and Woods, Branch and Bole. Wouldn't be the biggest stretch to assume as a population they'd be more adept at archery than your average levy pool (or poole).

As Roose told Ramsay: "You are the Warden of the North. Command them." "An invitation will accomplish the same thing. Power tastes best when sweetened by courtesy. You had best learn that if you ever hope to rule." The Lord of the Dreadfort glanced at Reek.

Why? Jon lays out where it's vulnerable: From the south. A small garrison in Moat Cailin can play havoc with any army coming up the causeway, but the ruins are vulnerable from the north and east." Robb says the same: "From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. And we know that Victarion lands the iron fleet W / NW of MC (at mouth of fever river) and uses most of the iron fleet to take the garrison, presumably unaware. That's opposite of the IB garrison who knows attempts could come from north or south (and later the swamp).

We know Ned wanted them to: "Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. If there is war, we shall have sore need of his father's fleet." We read Robb telling Catelyn he will leave the archers: "I'd leave a small force here to hold Moat Cailin, archers mostly, and march the rest down the causeway," We also know that Catelyn met with Lord Manderly and sent his sons and whatever forces he deemed appropriate: “Ser Wylis and his brother Ser Wendel followed, leading their levies, near fifteen hundred men: some twenty-odd knights and as many squires, two hundred mounted lances, swordsmen, and freeriders, and the rest foot, armed with spears, pikes and tridents. Lord Wyman had remained behind to see to the defenses of White Harbor. A man of near sixty years, he had grown too stout to sit a horse. “If I had thought to see war again in my lifetime, I should have eaten a few less eels,” he’d told Catelyn when he met her ship” So whether or not Wyman and the others "explicitly" received their orders from Ned (via Catelyn), it's pretty clear that the defensive posture left by Robb was either guided or dictated by Ned. A moot point, really, as Catelyn goes out of her way to say how much Robb sounds like Ned and how much he had absorbed at multiple points over the first three books.