Maithanet

He is term limited as governor, so appealing to Florida voters isn't his primary concern. He could run for Senate I guess. Neither Rubio nor Scott are all that popular.

That's about where I'm at too. I could be wrong, but IMO the gap between the AFC and NFC has never been wider. I totally expect Philly to regress. SF's qb situation is a mess and relying on being vastly more talented at non-qb positions is really tough. And after those two it's like a wasteland. Dallas is probably third, but that team has holes and I'm not really sure I trust thier top end talent either. Detroit probably makes the playoffs, but you really think they could beat any of those three AFC teams in the owl? I don't. The other AFC teams is a real challenge I admit. Could a team like the jets or chargers or jags or ravens put it together? Absolutely. If any of those teams were in the NFC I'd seriously consider taking them to win the conference. But I'm taking the the most complete teams with the QBs I really trust. Is it enough that I'd take them over the other 29? I don't know.

Ok, if you had to choose between taking a trio of Chiefs/Bills/Bengals or the other 29 teams to win the Super Bowl, who would you take?

Huh? What is this in response to?

Doubly so if the other drugs they've taken also give them super powers.

Playoff and Finals experience counts for a surprising amount in the NBA. None of Denver's core is old, and they will be an even more difficult out in the future. They'll keep Murray and Jokic, but at some point either injury or salary cap will prevent them from holding on to all of Gordon/Porter Jr/Pope, all of whom are great fits for what they're trying to do. But if that core 5 is healthy, they are going to be an extremely tough team to beat.

Phoenix is definitely betting that they can straight up outscore Denver. Teams that go all-in on offense almost never win the title (I can't think of any examples off the top of my head). So it's a risky bet, but I will say that having Beal as your third option offensively is pretty damn scary. I agree that Ayton was really poor in the Denver series. It is hard to know what was going on with him. He needs to be better though. Maybe he'll never be a star, but with his physical tools he needs to at least be an average starter, and he didn't look it vs Denver. You're relying on Jeff Green aging to make Denver worse? Wow, didn't expect that. Green was fine, but...there are a lot of NBA players that can do what Jeff Green does.

This isn't about the regular season, so I don't much care about what numbers he put up. For great NBA players, the regular season is just an extended preseason before the tournament. Durant looked like the best player in the world in 2021, and nearly beat Giannis and the Bucks with a vastly inferior team around him. In 2023, with a healthy Booker beside him, he couldn't dominate to nearly the same extent, and the best player in the series was pretty clearly Jokic.

I dunno, I think GA and PA are pretty different. The big concern is PA is that Dems standing in rural and mid-sized towns in PA fall further, and that gains elsewhere cannot counterbalance that. Biden '20 improved on Clinton '16 slightly in rural areas, but if the (generally bad) trend continues, Dems have a problem. GA on the other hand, is about black turnout and persuasion in the diverse atlanta suburbs. White Rural Georgia counties already vote 80 or even 85% Republican, there just isn't a lot of room for improvement there. On other other hand, suburban Atlanta is making up more and more of the statewide vote, and Dems are improving there. Honestly, I am more confident about Dems winning Georgia than I am Pennsylvania. The state is changing so fast that I think it is at least 2-3% bluer than it was in 2020 (possibly more).

So I was thinking more about the Beal/Booker/Durant trio in Phoenix. By far the closest comparison I can think of is the superteam Durant formed in Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden. Now, Beal + Booker is more stable and less insane than Harden/Kyrie (although Beal has plenty of injury history). But it comes down to three guys who are all on-ball playmakers/scorers as their primary skillset. I imagine in crunch time it will be mostly Booker handling it with Beal and Durant moving around, which is pretty good, but still not fully taking advantage of all Beal/Durant can do. But Durant/Kyrie/Harden lost because of a combination of injuries, lack of depth and poor defense. If Durant is still as good as he was in 2021, then maybe they can make it work. But he didn't look nearly that dominant in 2023, and he's turning 35 in a couple months. IMO the Suns would have been much better off signing/trading for a guy who is primarily a great defender, with so-so offense. And who is available that might fit that bill? Draymond Green. Defensively, Green/Ayton/Durant would be very formidable. I don't know how well that would work offensively, since Green is pretty miserable outside the pick-and-roll and you already have one non-shooter in Ayton. But just spitballing, it seems like Phoenix lost to Denver because they didn't have the defensive chops. Then their huge offseason move is to take on a huge contract for a guy who is top 15 offensively, but totally mediocre defensively (with injury concerns to boot).

I think NC is an easier call than PA. NC has some trends going both ways, but overall I could easily see the state getting redder in 2024. PA isn't super clear where it's going, but since Biden's 2020 win was so narrow, it is hard to take a lot of confidence from that. Funny that you say that because one of the scenarios I'm most worried about is that the Dem trends hold strong in GA/AZ, but Dems falter in the midwest, losing WI+PA. If that happens, Dems are at 268 and need to win Nevada.

I'm less bullish on PA than he is. The 2022 governor's race was a wipeout and the senate race only a little better, but I don't think that's an accurate measure of democratic strength in the state. The 2020 race was only Biden +1.2%, which is pretty damn close. There's definitely still plenty of reason to worry about the trend in the rural areas of PA, and that isn't counterbalanced by growing cities in PA (they aren't growing). I would consider the states that are BY FAR the most likely to be the tipping point to be AZ, GA, NV, WI, and PA. Plenty of other states that could flip, but they aren't going to be the tipping point.

I'm not sure I agree. If you don't want to watch the same TV or she hates sushi or something, you can just go do that with friends. Most western couples rely on our partners for a great deal of social interactions, but there are inevitably going to be places where you aren't interested in the same things and that's what friends, family, or even random acquaintances can help fill gaps. But sex is something that is expected to come from your partner*. If you aren't having sex at all, it indicates something is wrong and that's a pretty big deal. We have a sex drive that is built in, and that is very different from our desire to eat a specific food or watch certain movies. People are rarely happy in sexless long term relationships. * Excluding an open relationship where you aren't having sex with your main partner but are having sex elsewhere, which is fairly uncommon.

The official Russian line is that he told his troops to stop because otherwise they were going to get defeated and (eventually) crushed. Wasn't reporting that the column was something like 250-400 vehicles? Some of those are tanks, but that isn't exactly a huge squad. How many men could we be talking about? I've heard estimates like 4,000 to 8,000. Could they really have just waltzed into central Moscow? Even having seen how ridiculously easy it was to get as far as they did, I'm very skeptical. And even if they could, what were they going to do? Seize the Kremlin? Then what? Start ordering around the military? If they weren't following you before you seized the kremlin, I sorta doubt that just taking the building is going to cause a huge change of heart. Prigozhin's plan made little sense, but I think that his surrender with (terrible) terms is somewhat understandable. He was hoping that the military would not just stand aside, but actually join him. They didn't. Once that didn't happen, the bluff is over, and there's no need to find out if ten high is gonna take it.

Here's a CNN article about what Prigozhin was really planning (based on WSJ reporting, but that has limited clicks). Planning to kidnap Shoigu and Gerasimov would have the advantage of not looking like a coup, and thus less likely to attract the wrath of Putin so strongly. But the FSB got wind of it, so Prigozhin went with the plan of driving to Moscow as a show of force...which isn't much of a plan at all. The first half of that seems plausible at least. If Wagner had been able to (relatively) bloodlessly storm an army base and capture Shoigu + Gerasimov, then that would be a mutiny, but it would only indirectly threaten Putin, and I could at least see a possibility of Wagner/Prigozhin getting Putin's forgiveness.

Yeah, it is basically impossible to have a relationship that is going well except that you've stopped having sex. Hopefully he can get to the bottom of what that is before having to resort to divorce.

Pretty concerned about the remaining decisions. The SC knows to release the more reasonable opinions first, and we've gotten a fair number of them thus far this cycle. But Alito hasn't penned many decisions yet, and there are some important cases coming up.

It always struck me as unlikely that the supreme court was going to rule to drastically reduce the power of other courts in favor of state legislatures. I understand federal and state courts are different, and that this was a case about state courts, but still.

He could have been killed earlier, but if he was going to survive to old age, he was always going to end up a wretched jerk.

In a 7-2 Ruling, the Supreme Court rejects Moore v Harper. The independent state legislature theory is rejected (IE the idea that state legislatures can act on elections without being privy to review from state courts). This is a big relief for anyone who didn't want to have state legislatures determine who won an election (rather than say, the voters + the courts). .

There are already several reports that very few Wagner members are signing up with the MoD (less than 10%). They have some pretty compelling reasons not to: 1. Wagner paid better than they MoD, and much more reliably (you don't have officers stealing all the wages from enlisted men like in the army). 2. Wagner was better equipped and better led than the main Russian army. This was a point of pride for Wagner troops, and often caused friction between Wagner and the Russian military. They held themselves as separate and superior, and it is going to be really hard to just downgrade 3. Wagner now has the scarlet letter of Traitor, and that applies to any troops coming from Wagner to integrate into the Russian army. Hazing, bullying, even torture are widespread in the army, and those Wagner troops can expect the worst of it. They are likely to be selected for any dangerous and unpleasant mission like mineclearing, running point on scout teams, etc, and that will likely continue until they are killed. In sum, it is EXTREMELY unappealing to join the Russian military from Wagner. It sounds like Wagner troops who go to Belarus will either be working as advisors for the Belarussian army, going to Africa, or providing additional muscle for Lukashenko's state security. Can Prigozhin find enough work/money to keep paying his troops? Will Belarus have the military power to provide Wagner with supplies? That remains to be seen. It would certainly be ironic if this ended with Prigozhin ousting Lukashenko. My understanding is that most of those men are already dead or wounded. Most of the Wagner troops that remain were the actual professionals with good gear and good leadership. I don't think Putin will rock the boat quite so quickly. His regime looks shakier than it has at any point this century. There is the impression that a single popular colonel/general could just march on the Kremlin with vague promises of reform and most of the military/civilian populace would cheer them along. That's not good news for a dictator.

Wagner isn't going to be fighting Ukraine again. That alone is a pretty big win for Ukraine, since that was 25k or so of Russia's best equipped troops. In addition to the morale issues this only exacerbates for Russia, and the loss of 7 aircraft. This is all going down the tubes for Russia. It would take a significant reversal to hold on to any Ukrainian territory for another 18 months (Crimea possibly excepted). Donald Trump is not riding in to save Putin here.

All of PoN was fantastic for discussions. The second trilogy less so.

He doesn't say where he is now, and I personally assume that he is not in Belarus. I have to assume he will flee to Africa or some other Wagner holding. Relying on Lukashenko to protect you from Putin is a fool's bet. Plus, Prigozhin wants to maintain his Wagner holdings, so I would imagine he'll try to bolster whatever he has overseas for the new reality of operating without Russian assistance.

Interesting thread, not sure if I believe it, but it sounds possible. Her theory is that prigozhin was never attempting a coup, but a mutiny against Shoigu and the MoD. Prigozhin was surprised and unprepared for Putin to declare him a traitor. He had hoped to just show how serious he was about not having Wagner join the MoD. But Putin overreacted, and so he made a drive to Moscow and accepted the (super crappy) deal that was offered to him.