Regarding Bowen Marsh Stabbing thingie

[Hippocras]

How does LF know Bran and Rickon survived the Winterfell sack? (or were you talking about Roose? If so, then yes, he knows they survived, and that's why he approves of Ramsay training his dogs to kill wolves, since the direwolves would confirm their identity)

Are you sure LF is seeing Jon as a future Sansa ally? He's taken the Black, which customarily would preclude this. It's Robb's will and the plan to release Jon from his vows that opens the door for Jon's becoming a politicized party. Are you under the impression that LF knows Jon is the declared heir? This is really important, because it's what puts Jon's becoming a player on the table, since being in the Watch removes that entirely.

Just so we're clear, do you realize why Cersei and Qyburn came up with that plan in the first place? It's not about Jon's being a political threat or anything like that simply because he's Jon Snow. It's because Jon sent that paper shield to KL saying that Stannis showed up, though they aren't backing him, and ask for more resources from KL. So it pisses off Cersei that Jon's tolerating Stannis up there, and she calls it treason. That's what puts him on the KL radar in the first place. This wouldn't be something LF cares about. In fact, Stannis' ability to fight the Boltons for a while in North is actually something that benefits LF.

LF knows about Bran and Rickon because Roose knows and they are for now coconspirators. Except the part where LF has Sansa - Roose doesn't know that.

I think LF mentioned Jon to Sansa to gage her reaction. He wants her utterly dependent on him. If Jon was just a regular brother of the Watch, I agree he was not a threat, but as Lord Commander, that was a serious problem for his plan to turn Sansa into his Northern puppet and probably wife.

I really don't think anyone knows about Robb's will except the very small cluster of true loyalists now at GW. There are very very few completely crackpot possible paths where word of that would have got out.

Just because LF doesn't care about Jon dying for the same reason Cersei does, doesn't mean he does not concur that it would be best if Jon were dead.

[butterbumps!]

LF knows about Bran and Rickon because Roose knows and they are for now coconspirators. Except the part where LF has Sansa - Roose doesn't know that.

I think LF mentioned Jon to Sansa to gage her reaction. He wants her utterly dependent on him. If Jon was just a regular brother of the Watch, I agree he was not a threat, but as Lord Commander, that was a serious problem for his plan to turn Sansa into his Northern puppet and probably wife.

I really don't think anyone knows about Robb's will except the very small cluster of true loyalists now at GW. There are very very few completely crackpot possible paths where word of that would have got out.

It was Randa Royce who mentions Jon to Sansa.

Where did I bring up the possibility of Roose knowing LF has Sansa? Why does this matter? (for the record, he might end up knowing given the Redfort connection I mentioned).

I don't see why Jon's being LC of the Watch makes an impact on LF's desire to rule through Sansa. "The Watch takes no part," remember?

Maege and Glover were dispatched with a set of fake documents detailing a fake battle plan in the event they were intercepted by Ironborn on their way to Greywater. They didn't take the will with them, because that rather defeats the purpose to carry real copies of an important document in this context.

The will was written a few days prior to the RW. I think the most likely scenario is that it was at the Twins with Robb. Even if it wasn't, and that Mallister might have taken it for safekeeping, I think it's safer to assume Roose knows Jon is the heir than the assumption that he doesn't.

[Hippocras]

As for the people saying you don't need to look at a bigger picture to understand what happened at the wall, consider this:

It is perfectly easy to understand Walder Frey's motivation for staging the Red Wedding. The "reason" that happened are very clear if you don't look any farther than Robb's marriage and Frey's pride.

Does that mean that there was no conspiracy? Does that mean Tywin had no part? As we all now know, it means nothing of the sort. The events at the Wall will prove to be the same.

[Hippocras]

I don't see why Jon's being LC of the Watch makes an impact on LF's desire to rule through Sansa. "The Watch takes no part," remember?

Because he is a predator and wants her utterly dependent on him! Why is that so hard to understand? If she has a powerful brother right nearby, she has someone else to ask for advice, someone else to run to if he does her harm, someone around who can offer a different picture of events. Someone she trusts MORE than Littlefinger.

Finally, as I already said, for now, LF WANTS Roose to win and Stannis to be defeated.

[butterbumps!]

As for the people saying you don't need to look at a bigger picture to understand what happened at the wall, consider this:

It is perfectly easy to understand Walder Frey's motivation for staging the Red Wedding. The "reason" that happened are very clear if you don't look any farther than Robb's marriage and Frey's pride.

Does that mean that there was no conspiracy? Does that mean Tywin had no part? As we all now know, it means nothing of the sort. The events at the wall will prove to be the same.

I am looking at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is that Jon and Dany's DwD arcs are largely about being at the helm of organizations during a period of friction between the status quo and change.

"The bigger picture" doesn't mean we should be focusing on overcomplicating matters with conspiracies. The Watch dynamic, and Jon's relation to it, is complex enough already. Like I said upthread, these complexities get us to how "being on the losing side" occurred in the first place. To answer why Bowen decided to stab Jon, Martin hands us the answer on a silver platter: "we shouldn't choose the losing side."

Because he is a predator and wants her utterly dependent on him! Why is that so hard to understand? If she has a powerful brother right nearby, she has someone else to ask for advice, someone else to run to if he does her harm, someone around who can offer a different picture of events. Someone she trusts MORE than Littlefinger.

It's hard to understand given that Jon is sworn to the NW so wtf is LF seriously believing he would be capable of doing?

Further to this, what indication has Sansa given him that she'd be asking Jon for advice, running to him, or trusting him more than LF? Simply because they're siblings? Like how Cat and Lysa kept in touch all these years and were super best friends?

Also, why would LF see Jon as an impediment to his plan to eventually oust Roose? Are you saying that from LF's view, he'd think Jon's chosen Stannis' side and is involving himself in realm affairs, and that due to this, he suspects there's a chance Jon would politicize himself against LF? If that's the case, and LF does have some deeper intel on the Jon-Stannis dynamic, then wouldn't he also know that Jon wants to give Winterfell to Sansa, and that this could be used to some advantage?

[Hippocras]

If the will was with Robb at the Red Wedding and The enemies of the Starks know about it, why didn't Jon run into some sort of subtle accident a long long time ago? Surely his death would have been easy to pull of on the ranging, or when he was sick in bed from the arrow.

[MyLittleFinger]

I am looking at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is that Jon and Dany's DwD arcs are largely about being at the helm of organizations during a period of friction between the status quo and change.

"The bigger picture" doesn't mean we should be focusing on overcomplicating matters with conspiracies. The Watch dynamic, and Jon's relation to it, is complex enough already. Like I said upthread, these complexities get us to how "being on the losing side" occurred in the first place. To answer why Bowen decided to stab Jon, Martin hands us the answer on a silver platter: "we shouldn't choose the losing side."

It's hard to understand given that Jon is sworn to the NW so wtf is LF seriously believing he would be capable of doing?

Further to this, what indication has Sansa given him that she'd be asking Jon for advice, running to him, or trusting him more than LF? Simply because they're siblings? Like how Cat and Lysa kept in touch all these years and were super best friends?

Don't you know? Everything is and was Littlefinger.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

LF knows about Bran and Rickon because Roose knows and they are for now coconspirators.

Any hints in the text for that?

[Hippocras]

I think you need to approach things from a different angle.

This is not about complicating the events at the Wall with conspiracies. It is about realizing that throughout the books not a single zone of power has been free of political manipulation by warring factions. Why would the Watch be immune? Especially given that one or more of these political operatives have clear interests in the North?

Most of the people in the South see the Wall as nothing more than an outpost defending against wildlings. For them it is an army, and in the North it is a nearby army. Since these various political operatives do not take vows very seriously themselves they have absolutely no reason to simply leave it to faith that the Watch brothers would take their vows seriously. And in fact, they have been busy trying to put people in place to make sure that the Watch is NOT neutral but sticks to their side.

[Hippocras]

Any hints in the text for that?

The red wedding, and what Roose got in return.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The red wedding, and what Roose got in return.

That's 100% Lannister. No LF involved.

[Hippocras]

That's 100% Lannister. No LF involved.

Oh really? :)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Oh really? :)

The burden of proof is upon you.

[butterbumps!]

I think you need to approach things from a different angle.

This is not about complicating the events at the Wall with conspiracies. It is about realizing that throughout the books not a single zone of power has been free of political manipulation by warring factions. Why would the Watch be immune? Especially given that one or more of these political operatives have clear interests in the North?

Most of the people in the South see the Wall as nothing more than an outpost defending against wildlings. For them it is an army, and in the North it is a nearby army. Since there various political operatives do not take vows very seriously themselves they have absolutely no reason to simply leave it to faith that the Watch brothers would take their vows seriously. And in fact, they have been busy trying to put people in place to make sure that the Watch is NOT neutral but sticks to their side.

lol, no, I think I'm approaching this from a pretty clean angle.

The Watch is 100% impacted by political manipulations. What do you think all of my posts referring to the factors that brought the Watch to being on "the losing side" are about? Are you not seeing that the fact the Watch is a political entity and that political manipulations are creating these conditions in my posts? With all due respect, I think I'm a few steps ahead of you on that point. Your last paragraph is what's embedded in my very first post in this thread, and then expanded on subsequently.

But political manipulation doesn't mean that there is a literal conspiracy behind everything. If you look at the RW, the simple answer of "Robb's breaking vows" is not enough to satisfy the "why" because without Tywin's blessing and Roose's cooperation, it could not have happened-- Frey needed to get on a winning side and establish a contingency.

Conversely, there are no unanswered questions if we take Bowen's assertion about not choosing the losing side as his motive. No one needs to be moving his hand on this-- it is self-evident: Stannis lost, Jon's about to antagonize the victors, which will bring ruin upon us, and therefore must be stopped.

If you want to argue that there's some additional influence that made Bowen certain the Lannisters would win, that's a different story. But this does not mean that someone literally gave him a directive to take out Jon. The idea of a directive to take out Jon is just not supported.

[Hippocras]

There is not a conspiracy behind everything, no. What we have in these books though is two characters who do their work via conspiracies. manipulation and conspiracy is all they have to work with and they are damned good at it. They are central characters of the books and the entire reason for that is they have competing conspiracies which we are seeing deeper and deeper inside, but we still don't have the full picture of either one.

It is laughable how blind people are to this.

LF pretends to be people's best friend, particularly ambitious people with no morals, promises to help them achieve their ambitions, uses them to sow chaos, then in the end screws them over. He very much likes to murder people and frame other people for it who he wants to get rid of. He very much likes to keep his hands clean, leaving others to do the dirty work. Ergo he definitely uses agents. Martin simply has not revealed who they are yet.

Varys uses deflection and mummers tricks usually. However the effect is the same. People believe he is being helpful, though they trust him less, he keeps his own goals well guarded, and he also works through agents "little birds".

There are at least two proven conspiracies under way. From there it is not so hard to work outward to see which events may be important to those conspiracies, and which characters will be considered to be in the way by the conspirators.

[Hrafntýr]

I'm with those who say that there's no need for conspiracies to explain Marsh's actions. I agree that there could be political manipulation of leadership at the Wall by outside parties, given that we've seen this in the past, but I think that Bowen was proceeding in "innocence"; his views might have been strengthened by those with outside connections, but they are perfectly understandable views of someone who has been at the NW and doesn't like the radical changes introduced by Jon.

However, if there were any possibility of an outside conspiracy, I agree with butterbumps! that Roose makes much more sense than LF. In fact, if it's true that LF has designs on the north via Sansa, he might want Jon around so that Jon could confirm that "Arya" is fake, thereby demolishing any Bolton claim on WF.

Hippocras: There's no evidence that Roose knows that Jeyne was procured for Tywin via LF. I think that so far as Roose is concerned, he was working with Tywin, who sent along "Arya." For me a real point of interest is that LF doesn't seem to have kept his hands clean in this matter, since we're told that Jeyne is sent to LF's apartments, so she, at least, knows that LF played a part in the deception, even if Roose doesn't.

[Hippocras]

LF provided fArya in the first place. It was a deal made between LF and Roose to secure the North for Roose (for now) and both are fully aware she is not really Arya.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I was rather under the impression that LF took Jeyne and made her a whore, and that the Lannisters and the Boltons came up with the fArya plan, and recalled that northern girl whom LF took posession of, requested Jeyne back and sent her off to Roose.

In which case LF knows Arya is Jeyne, but it was less a deal struck between himself and Roose/Ramsey and more a deal Tywin struck and LF provided the girl. If Jeyen had been killed in KL instead of given over to LF there would be no fArya. I doubt her had any idea just how useful Jeyne would become in the moment that he decided to acquire her for his whore house.

And if the Lannisters had had any idea of Jeyne's future usefullness she would not have been given over to LF for that purpose but sent to CR and schooled in the art of deception and becoming Arya.

There fore it was a happy solution thought up by Tywin and LF provided Jeyne. He could hardly refuse Tywin the girl could he. At best to prevent the plan he might have her killed and say she dies months earlier. But maybe Tywin is well aware that Jeyne is alive and well because, Oh you know he likes to visit the odd whore house himself.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

I think LF kept her around specifically in case he needed a fake Arya, since Arya escaped at the same time Jeyne was taken and all the shit went down at the Red Keep. I would even believe LF went up to Tywin and was like "Hey Tywin, now that everyone from Winterfell is dead (which I totally didn't plan all along) except this one girl I kept safe, maybe give her to Ramsay!"

But I don't think LF and Roose have any sort of conspiracy together, could be possible though. They all know fArya is fake.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Really..... You really think LF is THAT clever.

If she's beeing kept in the wings all along as a potential fArya, then why pray tell has he had her whipped? why has he had her trained in the art of pleasuring men?

Wouldn't Arya Stark when she resurfaces, after being in KL all along, honest folks, be a skilled "lover" and bear scars all over her back? Surely as a noble hostage in the RK, she'd still be a maiden, and she'd bare no sign of ill treatment which could be used to show the King in a bad light. This is why Sansa is only ever hit, Joffrey knows she can not bare any permanent marks, for the sake of public decency.

If LF planned all along to eventually pass her off as Arya she would never have undergone all that abuse. But would have been instaed schooled in acting her role of Arya Stark. Not sent to a whore house.

Why not quash the rumors that no one knows where Arya is once and for all by presenting Jeyne as Arya straight away for that matter. You only need tell Sansa look here you say yes this is my sister or she dies, Jeyne was her bff and the last connection Sansa had to her home at that point.