Dany's death!

[naz]

I, like most, used to think that with the convergence of characters approaching Dany, one or more would ally with her, become dragonriders and launch some kind of offensive on Westeros/Others. Now, however, I'm starting to believe that there will instead be a fight for control of the Dragons and Dany will be left with two or only one (stemming from recent SSM talk). Having all these characters converge and expect them ALL to be lovey-dovey with Dany and her dragons seems increasingly less and less like something Martin would do. Their having to fight it out and possibly even one or more dragons dying before the Westeros offensive even begins seems more likely to me.

In neither of these scenarios do I expect Dany to die so soon. Like others have said, there's too much invested in her storyline.

Man. This is my first non-GC post in like.... months.

[DanteGabriel]

I'm very skeptical of the idea that the reader knows when a major character (like Ned or Catelyn or Tywin) has served their purpose and thus is able to predict that character's death. It strikes me as the wisdom of hindsight after the character's been whacked.

[Victarion Steel]

couldn't agree more Dante.

keep up the great thread!

[The Red Wolf]

I disagree. GRRM doesn't kill off characters to tie up dead plot lines he kills of characters to close "doors". He killed of Ned to eliminate the possibility of a peaceful resolution with the North. Robb died to close of any path to a happy ending through his military campaign. Catalyn died to alter Arya's path. The Red Viper died to prevent any genuine alliance between Lannisters and Dorne. I wouldn't be suprised if Loras or Margery dies next to drive a wedge between Cersei and the Tyrells, alltough Margery's encarceration is probably sufficient.

[Prince of the North]

I wish I could sympathize with you, but I really can't. Ned died when he had served his function. Catelyn died when she served her function. All the prologue characters died after they served their functions. It's one of the few flaws in his writing that he doesn't just leave characters to wander off into obscurity--they die.

Of course, I know I'm going to take criticism for questioning even one aspect of his writing.

But that's what I believe... Oh well...

I think I see where you're coming from but a couple of questions: how did you know they had served their "functions" until after they were dead? If Martin had not had the various characters die then they could have had more "functions" within the story, right?

Ned's death was sheer story-telling genius. It really launches the remaining tale. We start out thinking Ned is a main character who will be with us throughout the entire story only to be shown that the real story is about his children. Among other things, the story is about the Stark children being separated and each having to somehow "win through" on their own (so far). I firmly believe there will be a few reunions before the end but the Stark kids will be vastly changed by that time.

(Oops! Looks like many of us had the same sort of thoughts at about the same time...)

[DanteGabriel]

I disagree. GRRM doesn't kill off characters to tie up dead plot lines he kills of characters to close "doors". He killed of Ned to eliminate the possibility of a peaceful resolution with the North. Robb died to close of any path to a happy ending through his military campaign. Catalyn died to alter Arya's path. The Red Viper died to prevent any genuine alliance between Lannisters and Dorne. I wouldn't be suprised if Loras or Margery dies next to drive a wedge between Cersei and the Tyrells, alltough Margery's encarceration is probably sufficient.

Ahhhh. "Closing doors" is a much better way of looking at it than some kind of after-the-fact assessment of predestination. Well put.

[Greyman]

I think that Dany could die in Dance, but she would have to impact Westeros first, no matter in what way.

[Enguerrand]

I'm very skeptical of the idea that the reader knows when a major character (like Ned or Catelyn or Tywin) has served their purpose and thus is able to predict that character's death. It strikes me as the wisdom of hindsight after the character's been whacked.

Well that's what I use to think when people explain how they managed to deduce R+L=J. I never got that. I suppose if you approach fantasy reading as mystery solving it's understandable, but most people like me I read it for entertainment. Even so if you consider R+L=J obvious what does it make the Red Wedding?

Greywind not entering the Twins, Catelyn insisting on salt and bread, cackling witch women "ohh theirs going to be a wedding". It's so thick that it's laughable. Actually I sat reading expecting the twist. Where is the twist, surely Martin wont waste so many pages on the Red Wedding if all he going to do is kill Rob?

Only Tywin's and Catelyn's deaths have surprised me so far. In Tywin's case it was just the timing. That the BBEG is to die goes without question. And Catelyn didn't really die as it turns out.

Since Jon starts as the protagonist in the bastard role, classic fantasy cliché dictates that the Stark family is to fall upon hard times so he is allowed to show his mettle. In this case the bad guys ALWAYS kill the noble father so we can have righteous anger. From this also follows that Rob and at least the male Starks would get out of the way.

Every chapter Rob stayed alive amazed me, why keep him alive when it's obvious he is nothing but a stopgap?

Martin has a real talent for making the supporting cast come alive, which creates the illusion that he kills of important people, but really he doesn't. Main characters such as Jon or Daenerys cannot be discarded until the resolution of the story; anything else is just bad storytelling.

So far Martin has spent thousands of pages on Daenerys that has no impact on the power struggle in Westeros or the conflict with the Others. Which means that those pages are just character building. No other character in the series get is even close to that kind of attention. Killing Daenerys would make those pages just pointless ramblings, a great waste of the reader’s time. A good author would never do that.

Really it takes no talent whatsoever to make a story unpredictable or to kill of characters of importance, anyone can do that. All that is necessary is that the story makes no sense.

[DanteGabriel]

Even so if you consider R+L=J obvious what does it make the Red Wedding?

Well, I never considered R+L=J to be obvious.

That being said, the reason I have seen people citing for why they believed it to be obvious is because it makes Jon the stereotypical "lost prince" like Aragorn from LOTR or even Corporal Carrot from Discworld. So far as I know, the Red Wedding is a much less common trope in fantasy literature.

I'm not going to bother to respond to your list of things that did not surprise you, because, well, I don't care. It bores me to tears to hear people rattling on about all the shit they predicted in these books and it doesn't, in my opinion, bolster the idea that you can tell when a character's story has ended in advance. I think it's the textual clues that help a person predict the Red Wedding -- not some vague sense that, "Oh, Robb's narrative arc is spent, he's going to die soon." I just don't think a reader can decide when a character's story is over. You said yourself that Robb's continued survival before the Red Wedding surprised you, right? So you couldn't have predicted when his arc was over?

Martin has a real talent for making the supporting cast come alive, which creates the illusion that he kills of important people, but really he doesn't. Main characters such as Jon or Daenerys cannot be discarded until the resolution of the story; anything else is just bad storytelling.

It seems to me that you are backward-defining "important" characters to be the ones that we are pretty sure will survive because of their place in the story. That Jon and Dany will survive for at least the vast majority of the story arc is no huge insight. But you don't consider any of the people who died to be important characters?

[Greyman]

Enguerrand, you have good points, but you neglect to mention how easily the characters that Martin killed could have lived. I suspected something could go wrong at the Wedding, but with a little tweak (lord Walder's death beforehand or something) it could have so easily gone completely in the opposite direction. Ned could have been sent to the wall to have further plot development with John. Renly and Stannis could have teamed up/ or they could have had that battle and neither could have died. Joffrey was an easy tyrannical villain. Simple enough to let him live to the climax of the story.

All in all, Martin's decisions have been a tad more complex than you've made them seem. Talking about Ned's death happening for the fantasy cliche of righteous familial anger isn't really fair in this case. There was a lot more to it. And talking about how the Starks of course would fall on bad times so that Jon could prove his mettle doesn't really settle well with me either. I'm well accustomed to fantasy cliches, and even when someone could apply them to Martin's plot, I still find it to be glazing over the real meat of the story.

[Victarion Steel]

you can't believe GRRM could kill dany or even jon or Jaime its going to happen and you will all be shocked once again but later you will say I knew that was going to happen lol

[Prince of the North]

Martin has a real talent for making the supporting cast come alive, which creates the illusion that he kills of important people, but really he doesn't.

Nobody knew Ned was not a main character until the precise moment when Martin wanted us to realize it. It was the proverbial fork in the road that lies just beyond the hill. When we suddenly came upon it and veered off in a new direction it only served to suck us into the story even deeper

[Enguerrand]

So far as I know, the Red Wedding is a much less common trope in fantasy literature.

Well I have encountered it several times in Arab and Nordic mythology, there many real historical examples as well, 1811 Mehemed Ali who killed of of 480 Mameluck chiefs during a banquet in Kairo comes to mind. In Sweden you had King Birger who invited his quarrelsome brothers for a Christmas dinner at Nykoping where he captured them and had them starved to death in his dungeon. Martin didn’t invent the bread and salt custom, it existed for a reason.

You said yourself that Robb's continued survival before the Red Wedding surprised you, right? So you couldn't have predicted when his arc was over?

I said that his death didn’t surprise me. I had waited for it for along time. He didn’t have a POV, wasn’t particularly interesting as a character, and he obviously had to screw up for Jon to come down from the wall to save the day.

It seems to me that you are backward-defining "important" characters to be the ones that we are pretty sure will survive because of their place in the story. That Jon and Dany will survive for at least the vast majority of the story arc is no huge insight.

That is what I think. Yet this very thread question that.

But you don't consider any of the people who died to be important characters?

In a word no. They are not important as characters but as vehicles for the story. Main characters are the story in a sense and play decisive role in it’s resolution. That doesn’t mean thy can’t die, but they most be alive to be part of the resolution.

I suspected something could go wrong at the Wedding, but with a little tweak (lord Walder's death beforehand or something) it could have so easily gone completely in the opposite direction.

To what purpose? Martin tells the story and characters move in the direction that serves the plot. Nothing can go wrong unless Martin wills it. In order for the Stark’s to rise in triumph they most be layed low first, so the faster the shitty things will happen to them the faster we will get to the good parts.

Ned could have been sent to the wall to have further plot development with Jon.

No, Jon is Lord commander today because there are no men like Ned in the Nightwatch. Ned would just constricts him as protagonist. Ned also knows the answer to Jon’s heritage which could create problems further up in the plot when that heritage becomes manifest. Besides Ned is so damn NICE. When nice familymen are murdered people get immersed in the story and we get an impetus. There is a reason why the “you killed my father, prepare to die†trope is so popular in fantasy action adventure.

Renly and Stannis could have teamed up/ or they could have had that battle and neither could have died. Joffrey was an easy tyrannical villain. Simple enough to let him live to the climax of the story.

Oh not all minor characters will die, some will of course, and when they do its not surprising. I didn’t know Renly was going to die, in fact I thought he would play a somewhat larger part yet his death didn’t make me scream -Holy shit how could GRRM kill Renly, no one is safe!!!

I didn’t predict Jofferys death either but I never thought he would live to the climax of the story. He was too pathetic to make a good climax villain. That the little twit would die in some humiliating manner was rather predictable. (This is why I was surprised about Tywin because he is the archetypical end villain.)

you can't believe GRRM could kill dany or even jon or Jaime its going to happen and you will all be shocked once again but later you will say I knew that was going to happen lol

Well, now I’m on record. I'm ready to submit to the mockery if I'm wrong. Incidently Jaime is one of those character who I’m absolutely certain will die redeeming himself before the story is over.

and I expect either Dany or Jon to die at the resolution of the story.

[Grumpygoat]

The Red Wedding was getting foreshadowed as early as A Clash of Kings, with the wolf-headed corpse and the turkey leg held like a sceptre.

Anyway, with that said...

I'd just about guarantee Dany makes it to Westeros. Sure, any Point of View characters linking up with her story could carry her storyline beyond her death, so to speak...but I doubt it. All she's built up would crumble with her demise at this point.

One way or another, Dany's story has to link up with Westeros. Otherwise, it's superfluous to the story as a whole. Yeah, there's been some minor interaction with both parts of the world - Jorah's spying for Varys, the assassins Robert sends after Dany and her unborn child - but it's been just. Minor.

All that build up has to have a similarly appropriate pay-off. Dany will reach Westeros and have a major effect when she arrives. Now, once she reaches Westeros...things are up in the air. Personally, I do predict she dies.

Just not until the last book. For that matter, I'd say all the original, surviving Point of Views will survive to the last book. Some are a bit less plot-immune than others - Arya's off in her own world and Jon's position as 998th Lord Commander is ominous - but I think they'll all survive until at least the last book.

But, yeah. Dany? She will reach Westeros. Martin isn't as unpredictable as some make him out to be. Some have questioned why Martin should bother with the Dany chapters when they're so removed from everything else, but they serve the purpose of diffusing the sense of deus ex machina when an army of eunuchs and three dragons suddenly invade Westeros.

And, at this point in the story, Dany's not quite at the point of invading Westeros. She may land on Westerosi shores at the end of the next book...but that only opens her up for dying come the sixth, as opposed to A Dance with Dragons.

[Stryke]

I just really hope she doesn't just waltz into Westeros and win it all without even trying.

I mean, I'd still enjoy reading the books, but I know I just won't be as satisfied if (what did someone call her in a previous post, Betty Sue?) comes out on top. And I know from reading all the posts about how dang awesome Dany is that my opinion isn't a popular one on this board.

She just doesn't feel like part of the story. It would be like in Lord of the rings if right at the battle of Minas Tirith, after all the involved characters have struggled and postured and made it to that point, an unknown army arrived from across the sea, beat Sauron, and was just like, "hey, now Middle Earth is ours!"

[Kraken]

GRRM definitely doesn't kill simply for shock value. Every time a main character dies, it has very important plot repercussions.

Tywin dies and it vastly weakens Lannister power while Tyrion goes spinning off in a darker direction and Cersei is free to destroy herself.

Robb dies and the Starks lose the war.

Oberyn dies and Tyrion is forced out of Westeros.

Etc, etc.

It's why even if we hadn't had hints of Sandor surviving, I'd still think he's alive because his death didn't drive any plots points forward.

Dany's death in ADWD would likely be pointless, and probably won't happen. She has to at least reach Westeros first.

[Victarion Steel]

Still just saying it is a possibility even though I don't think it is going to happen either just had a feeling something really shocking is going to happen by the end of aDwD.

[Innominandum]

Still just saying it is a possibility even though I don't think it is going to happen either just had a feeling something really shocking is going to happen by the end of aDwD.

GRRM said he really had difficulties writing the last Tyrion chapter (in pre-split AFFC). When he previously said he had real difficulties with a particular chapter, it was the RW. Maybe it's Tyrion's luck that will finally end.

[A Bengali Menace]

I don't think killing off Dany is outlandish at all. Especially if the dragons each individually form attachments to different characters in ADwD, we would then have the Fire side (of ASoIaF) be splintered and squabbling when the Ice side made their move.

It would be like in Lord of the rings if right at the battle of Minas Tirith, after all the involved characters have struggled and postured and made it to that point, an unknown army arrived from across the sea, beat Sauron, and was just like, "hey, now Middle Earth is ours!"

This was a real worry of the Allies' after the Pacific War; that the USSR would invade northern Japan and claim half for its own, after contributing nothing to that theather of operations.

[Xanrn]

Er... So I guess that whole thing about waking the dragons and apparently being one of the only ones in the whole world that can stop the Others effectively was just a diversion?.

I am sorry whenever the hell was that mentioned?

When was it ever mentioned that the last time they had Dragons? Oh wait it wasn't, 8,000 years ago the First Men and Children of the Forest layed the smackdown(sorry been playing wrestling games on the PS2 all day) on the Others and they did it without any skanky Dragons.

Then we have the major flaw (no this is not another rant on Dragon growth rates), Dragons are only of any use in the Daytime. Because they need Human "pilots" and Nightvision goggles have not been invented in Westeros.

While the Others only move at Night and when they launch their major offensive they do so under the cover of "the Long Night".

Dany and her Dragons are not the be all and end all of Other arsekicking, they are just bonus weapons. Dany and Dragons or No Dany and No Dragons, it matters nought, they will come on the same old way and will be defeated in the same old way.

Fire Pikes, Fire Arrows, Fire Pots, Fire Trenches and Obisidian.

Also in reply to Bengali Menace, whenever the hell has it ben Fire vs Ice, cause I see Ice AND Fire.