(SPOILERS) Littlefinger's Army

[King Zee]

Two things: First, the Freys aren't likely to accept Baelish as their overlord.

Second. What do we do those who hurt the ones we love? Even if Baelish is willing to overlook Catelyn's murder, Sansa is not.

isnt there a whole scene in the books where the new Lord of Riverrun finally accepts he isnt also Lord of the Riverlands.

Does LF plan to commit suicide ? Seems to me he's hurt Cat alot. Ned's death, the Tyrell- Lannister alliance.

Sansa isnt in charge. (yet)

[juanml82]

isnt there a whole scene in the books where the new Lord of Riverrun finally accepts he isnt also Lord of the Riverlands.

Does LF plan to commit suicide ? Seems to me he's hurt Cat alot. Ned's death, the Tyrell- Lannister alliance.

Sansa isnt in charge. (yet)

But Walder Frey doesn't. What would Walder Frey do if that little upstart from the Fingers, or worse, his bastard daughter, demand that he travels to Harrenhall to swear fealty and command him to do things he doesn't want to do? What if Walder Frey perceives weakness?

Sansa is not yet in charge, but Littlefinger can't simply ignore Show!Sansa desire for vengeance and still have her as an ally.

[Ravi Seaworth]

Out of curiosity, what is the relative force of the Vale, compared to the other kingdoms?

[Mr Fixit]

Out of curiosity, what is the relative force of the Vale, compared to the other kingdoms?

The number-crunching nerd in me would say 30,000. Similar to North and Riverlands, give or take 5K. A bit stronger than Dorne and Stormlands, weaker than Westerlands and Reach.

[reignsupreme]

One thing though. The Boltins haven't run there course yet. If Walder Frey could still call in him for protect from the Vale. If only to keep Boltons involvement in the red wedding a secret. Freys are still very dangerous.

[King Zee]

But Walder Frey doesn't. What would Walder Frey do if that little upstart from the Fingers, or worse, his bastard daughter, demand that he travels to Harrenhall to swear fealty and command him to do things he doesn't want to do? What if Walder Frey perceives weakness?

Walder Frey has enough problems with his family members dropping like flies because of Lady Stoneheart and Black Walder. He's keeping his manpower close to home.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I just saw something interesting in aFfC:

"(...)Harrenhal has withered every hand to touch it.”

“Then give it to Lord Frey.”

Petyr laughed. “Perhaps I shall (...)"

As much as LF and Sansa would like to destroy the Freys perhaps they'll use them as cannon-fodder against the Iron Throne.

Walder is notoriously fickle and he would join the winning side. As soon as the Iron Throne starts to collapse, Frey would want to jump ship.

Maybe LF will offer him Harrenhal in return, and stupid Walder would be too greedy to realize the prize is poisoned.

[juanml82]

Walder Frey has enough problems with his family members dropping like flies because of Lady Stoneheart and Black Walder. He's keeping his manpower close to home.

Precisely.

"Lord Walder, we've received a raven from Lord Baelish/Lord Baelish bastard niece*. He/She orders us to march into the Stormlands to fight the Targaryen pretender. What do we do?"

"We do nothing"

Cue to Baelish declaring the Freys traitors and rallying the Vale and the remaining Riverlords against them.

*It's even more likely to get rejected

[Petyr Patter]

So after that last episode, does anyone doubt that he gets it and unites the Vale around Sansa? The show pretty much jumped the books finally, and now the Vale Lords are actively planning on betraying the Lannisters and using Sansa as their main piece. No chance LF goes out the Moon Door at the start of the next book as many are predicting.

And once he gets this army, then what? Personally, I think he goes to the Twins and kills all the Freys, and then moves North to Winterfell.

What are your thoughts?

I certainly have doubts. Somewhat dated, but most of the arguments are still in place: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/99141-bad-news-baelish-or-purple-wedding-20/ .

The show is not the book, and the show has no problem with plot cul-de-sacs and loves going for shock moments instead of the tension and subtle foreshadowing preferred by the author. Essentially, we've reached the end of Sansa's material from Feast for Crows. The show just takes it a few steps further with Sansa's identity already revealed, and Littlefinger getting the Lord Declarants on his side right away. Of course, they aren't really on his side, but instead willing to work with him to accomplish something they want to accomplish anyways. Since we are out of published book material, Sansa is being set up for another plotline for the next season. I somehow doubt that plotline is just walking around the Vale. Especially considering how her sister is right there. We know Arya has an appointment in Braavos. Something has to change.

I think there is about to be a big shake up in the Vale in episode 10. Supposedly, Martin cut a single Sansa chapter out of Dance of Dragons because it started a new plotline for her which wouldn't be developed in that novel. Maybe Sansa now having gone on record defending Baelish will go ahead and poison him, since she now has "no motive." Maybe the Hill Tribes that Tyrion armed attack them on the road.

Regardless, I don't see Baelish as somebody who would ever bet on an army. Especially an army that is ultimately loyal to someone who isn't him. He isn't a military man, and puts his faith in assassinations, bribery, and handshake deals.

[Janicia]

I agree that Littlefinger is likely to have effective control over a Vale army in Season 5 and will do something with it. We really can't have Littlefinger and Sansa slowly poisoning Robin for a season. They have to do something that matters in Kings Landing.

The show has deviated hugely from the books in terms of military campaigns - they don't have the time to do them justice so they don't really try. We should assume that any military campaign we see on screen will have people that are important to the show on both sides.

Good point - Littlefinger could go after the Freys - he has personal reasons, it makes Sansa happy, and going after the hated Freys probably unites the Vale lords under his leadership. Walder Frey is a known entity and we all want him to die, so it is plausible. Maybe Littlefinger would decide to take the risk of doing something aggressive. In the books, the Great Northern Conspiracy will probably take out the Freys, but the show will struggle with a huge complicated conspiracy so having Littlefinger do it is reasonable.

My alternate theory is that Cersei sends Loras with the Tyrell army to besiege the Vale in season 5. The show has made it obvious that people should look for Stark girls in the Vale. Both girls have been outed and even Pod figured where they would be. Cersei wants Stark girls and wants to get rid of Loras and the Tyrell army. In the books, the Tyrell army fights the Ironborne in the Reach and attacks Dragonstone. Neither engagement is important. After Euron takes over, the Ironborne should probably just take off for Dany (money will not be spent on big battle scene for Euron and Loras in the Reach), and nobody cares about Stannis' garrison. If the Vale was besieged, there wouldn't be big battles, but it would give Littlefinger and Sansa something to do, Loras can (fake?) get hurt onscreen, Cersei can be irrational, and an unproductive invented siege would be easy to merge back into the book storyline.

Either way, there is a decent chance that Blackfish, BwB, and Brienne would be impacted, if not involved.

[Eddard the Builder]

Technically as Lord Paramount of the Riverlands Lord Frey and the other riverlords owe him loyalty; loyalty Tywin would likely help enforce. And he is now Lord Protector of the Vale, which amounts to being the equivalent of Protector of the Realm (the King's military title). So yes, Littlefinger by rights has (nominal) control over 2 of the 7 kingdoms.

[OnlyOne]

This last episode says otherwise about the army, and there's been an incredible amount of foreshadowing that he's getting that army.

Yes he will die in the books, but it will be after he thinks he has it won and has Winterfell in his grasp, only to find out that Bran and Rickon are still alive, Jon Snow has risen the dead and been legitimized as a Stark and a Targaryen King, and that the Others have broken through the Wall and are heading his way to kill them all. That would be so much more satisfying than throwing him out the Moon Door as so many fans seem to wish. That would be the most anticlimatic end ever, while Littlefinger being killed at his absolute peak would be the way to do it.

Please let Sansa be the one to kill him. :-)

[OnlyOne]

There is alot more to come from little finger, brains beats brawn in GOT.

Little finger is a master of manipulation.

LF is not a master of manipulation my friend. He is an opportunist of chaos. Chaos can be managed but not controlled. Something Tywin Lannister learned too late. LF is doomed.