The dagger/Littlefinger

[Kernest]

As for the assassin, I'm perfectly content with the assumption that we were actually given in the books: Joffrey overhears Robert saying that death would be preferable to being a cripple and then takes the dagger and acts on it.

As for Littlefinger blaming Tyrion: as stated above, he was the only person (of note) who was with Robert in Winterfell that wasn't at KL when Cat arrived. Secondly, and what I think this thread has overlooked quite a bit: LF told the lie because he assumed Tyrion would be captured by Stark loyalists, after all, the Imp is perhaps the most recognizable person in all of the seven kingdoms. All it would have taken from Ned or Cat to capture him is send word by raven discreetly to Stark or Tully bannermen, or to be more secretive, just most loyal of them (as in not the Freys :)).

Or perhaps Littlefinger didn't mean for anything to happen just yet, just to inflict a festering wound to the already less-than-ideal Stark-Lannister relationship.

By the way, do we even know that Tyrion was present at the tourney where he supposedly won the dagger from Littlefinger?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

By the way, do we even know that Tyrion was present at the tourney where he supposedly won the dagger from Littlefinger?

Yes, he was. Bet on Jaime himself and lost a lot of gold that way. Both Tyrion and Jaime mention that when questioned by Cat.

[The Sleeper]

Tyrion wasn't there to refute this.

[Lady Woodland]

GRRM stated in one of his interview's that the person behind Bran's assasination attempt would be "revealed" in aSoS.

So at Joff's wedding to Marg, Tyrion gives Joff a present of some rare books which Joff clumsily chops up with his new sword "Widow's Wail." He asks Joff if he would perhaps prefer a nice valyrian steel dagger with a dragonbone hilt. Joff appears to look taken aback but quickly recovers & states dragonbone is too plain. gold with rubies perhaps.

So Tyrion is convinced his suspicions about Joff being behind the attack are now confirmed. However Tyrion was quite drunk & still doesn't really answer the question of why? A reasonable explanation for Joff to do this is still a mystery & if it was Joff he took his motivation for this to the grave.

So we end up with an unreliable narrator POV. with still no confirmed answer.

[Jo498]

TBH I don't find this whole strain very plausible. It is firstly a red herring for the reader who knows that a few people have very good reasons to get into trouble should Bran awake and remember the twincest, secondly a device to get Cat out of Winterfell and to speed up the Lannister-Stark-conflict by capturing the imp.

But Littlefinger's reaction is plausible. He needs both time and an escalation of the conflict. Framing Tyrion accomplishes both. If Ned/Cat ask Robert for the dagger, Joffrey would be found guilty and no matter whether Cersei could wiggle out of that or whether it will lead to a clash of Ned and Robert, it would be done with.

(I do feel somewhat cheated that of the two things that set the conflict in AGoT motion, Jon Arryn's death and Bran's narrow escape from the dagger, one is given a plausible explanation that turns out to be wrong (it wasn't the Lannisters after all, but Lysa/Littlefinger) and the second has nothing to do with covering up the twincest and was just awhim of crazy Joffrey)

[Hippocras]

Why does bran have to see Jamie and Cercei or even be crippled for Joffrey to either kill, injure, or secretly try to have assassinated a Stark? Why does it even have to be Bran? You miss the point- Littlefinger may have pandered to Joffrey's insecurities prior to Joffrey travelling to to Winterfell. The Starks being former Kings- proud Lords, thinking themselves better than everyone else etc. The goal was conflict- the agenda was set months in advance, and the details were improvised IMO. Joffrey was spoiling for a fight right from the off wanting to fight with real swords- So I think Littlefinger using Joffrey to stir up trouble before the Royal retinue even set out from KL is not a stretch of the imagination. Afterall, LF has already started to make his move- killing Arryn and getting Lysa to implicate the Lannisters to the Starks.

As for Tyrion and Cat meeting being a total coincidence- really? 1 road to Winterfell, 2 months to travel along it? By the time of the lie, Littlefinger probably knows Tyrion has not returned with the retinue- therefore, he is probably still in the North. Whether Cat meets Tyrion on the road, or as Tyrion returns down from the wall, or if Robb takes matters into his own hands- the risk is actually high they will meet. If they don't, bad feelings continue to fester, and the Starks and Lannisters are still set on a collision course as soon as Bobby B dies.

I agree. Joff behaved aggressively and antagonistically from the moment he arrived at Winterfell. Both LF and Cersei likely played a role in this by talking about the Starks in ways that encouraged and provoked hid behaviour. We know LF had influence with Joff. Merely discussing the Starks in a condescending way in Joff's presence would have made being rude to Starks seem like a fun game to Joff. LF knew he could use the prince to cause trouble on the trip north.

[John Suburbs]

Agreed. Is it possible that Bran's crippling and the assassination attempt were completely unrelated? That LF, either through Joffrey or not, sent the assassin north with the retinue with orders to kill one of the younger Starks no matter what happened in order to sow discord between the wolf and the lion?

That fact that Bran was laying there in a coma just made him an easy target, but he could have gone for Sansa, Arya, Rickon, even Robb.

It seems implausible, but it would eliminate the need for LF to know that Brandon fell from the tower before ordering the hit.

[Lady Woodland]

Agreed. Is it possible that Bran's crippling and the assassination attempt were completely unrelated? That LF, either through Joffrey or not, sent the assassin north with the retinue with orders to kill one of the younger Starks no matter what happened in order to sow discord between the wolf and the lion?

That fact that Bran was laying there in a coma just made him an easy target, but he could have gone for Sansa, Arya, Rickon, even Robb.

It seems implausible, but it would eliminate the need for LF to know that Brandon fell from the tower before ordering the hit.

LF is either the mad genius who thought up the whole plot who was willing to bide his time waiting for the right moment to strike. Or a very clever opportunist

who is able to think on his feet & strike when people are at their most vulnerable & manipulate the situation to suit his own agenda.

If you believe LF is behind Bran's assassination attempt, you actually have to think as far back as Jon Arryn's murder, & how much did he have to do with that? Was that just crazy Lysa thinking she needed to get rid of Jon so he wouldn't send SR away anywhere to be fostered or did LF sow the seeds of discord to push her to poisoning him? We know there were two versions of where SR was going to be fostered Jon wanted him with Stannis but Lysa thought Jon was sending him to Tywin.

If LF did manipulate that scenario it's safe to believe he manipulated Lysa into murdering Jon with promises they would be together afterward. So did he hope he would be made hand was that his game plan? or did he know Robert would name Ned his hand?, I'm not saying it's beyond the realms of possibility but there's a lot of it's involved to set in motion the rest of the series of events.

LF somehow knows Cat is in KL before she actually set's foot inside the city, however he blames that on Varys, so again the truth is convoluted. Does he already know about the dagger when she shows it to him & tells him what has happened? or is that him acting advantageously.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

If you believe LF is behind Bran's assassination attempt, you actually have to think as far back as Jon Arryn's murder, & how much did he have to do with that? Was that just crazy Lysa thinking she needed to get rid of Jon so he wouldn't send SR away anywhere to be fostered or did LF sow the seeds of discord to push her to poisoning him? We know there were two versions of where SR was going to be fostered Jon wanted him with Stannis but Lysa thought Jon was sending him to Tywin.

You're confusing the two fostering options:

Jon Arryn intended to foster SR with Stannis. Lysa killed him for that.

After Jon died, Robert, not knowing Jon's plans, intended to foster SR with Tywin. Lysa ran to the Eyrie to avoid that.

[Lady Woodland]

You're confusing the two fostering options:

Jon Arryn intended to foster SR with Stannis. Lysa killed him for that.

After Jon died, Robert, not knowing Jon's plans, intended to foster SR with Tywin. Lysa ran to the Eyrie to avoid that.

It could be the way I read it, but I believed that Lysa was of the opinion that SR was to be fostered at Casterley Rock with Tywin, when as you say Jon intended him to go with Lysa, I believed it was LF who put that thought in Lysa's head. I think she would have hated either idea though tbh.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

It could be the way I read it, but I believed that Lysa was of the opinion that SR was to be fostered at Casterley Rock with Tywin, when as you say Jon intended him to go with Lysa, I believed it was LF who put that thought in Lysa's head. I think she would have hated either idea though tbh.

Wait what? Jon intending him to go with Lysa? That's not what I said. Since when is Lysa Stannis in drag?

[Hippocras]

I think it might have gone like this:

1. We KNOW that LF manipulated Lysa to kill Jon Arryn. That is not really in doubt. He probably also knew that Ned would be asked when he died. So he wanted Ned to come to KL.

2. He had Lysa write the letter blaming the Lannisters both to deflect suspicions away from him and Lysa, and also to make extra sure Ned would feel compelled to come to KL as Hand.

3. He also trash talked the Starks in Joffrey's presence before they went North, giving him verbal ammunition to use while in the North, thus provoking tensions. We saw some of this in action in the practice yard. LF did not know exactly what would happen in the North, but he did plant all the seeds required for mutual distrust between Lannisters and Starks - the letter from Lysa for the Starks, and the trash talk in advance for the Lannisters.

4. Joff hired the assassin. I don't understand why he had to provide a knife at all, frankly, if the intention was not to frame someone, but whatever. I do not doubt that Joff did the hiring, I simply question whether he dreamed up the idea on his own or was prompted. I do not exclude possible involvement of an LF agent who was charged with helping make sure Joff provoked maximum possible Lannister-Stark tension.

5. Word reached LF on the assassination attempt. When he saw the knife he knew it was Robert's and made up a story on where it came from that fit with his goal of provoking Lannister-Stark antagonism.

[Lady Woodland]

Wait what? Jon intending him to go with Lysa? That's not what I said. Since when is Lysa Stannis in drag?

Sorry, of course yes Stannis, I was very sleepy when I posted that, yes I meant Stannis not Lysa, however I would like to see Stannis in drag, since you brought up the possibility. Anything to lighten him up lol...

Wait no.. Renly might love the idea, but Stannis hah...

[Lady Woodland]

I think it might have gone like this:

1. We KNOW that LF manipulated Lysa to kill Jon Arryn. That is not really in doubt. He probably also knew that Ned would be asked when he died. So he wanted Ned to come to KL.

2. He had Lysa write the letter blaming the Lannisters both to deflect suspicions away from him and Lysa, and also to make extra sure Ned would feel compelled to come to KL as Hand.

3. He also trash talked the Starks in Joffrey's presence before they went North, giving him verbal ammunition to use while in the North, thus provoking tensions. We saw some of this in action in the practice yard. LF did not know exactly what would happen in the North, but he did plant all the seeds required for mutual distrust between Lannisters and Starks - the letter from Lysa for the Starks, and the trash talk in advance for the Lannisters.

4. Joff hired the assassin. I don't understand why he had to provide a knife at all, frankly, if the intention was not to frame someone, but whatever. I do not doubt that Joff did the hiring, I simply question whether he dreamed up the idea on his own or was prompted. I do not exclude possible involvement of an LF agent who was charged with helping make sure Joff provoked maximum possible Lannister-Stark tension.

5. Word reached LF on the assassination attempt. When he saw the knife he knew it was Robert's and made up a story on where it came from that fit with his goal of provoking Lannister-Stark antagonism.

This I agree with it makes the most sense, however we are still presuming most of it, So still theory in itself.

The bolded part I would like to weigh in on further if I may, I have suggested before that the scene in the yard where Joff & his men including the hound are casually discussing "even my father thinks he would be better off dead than live as a cripple" is when Tyrion comes across him mouthing off & says "speaking for cripples" etc. So they end up in a heated argument with Tyrion slapping Joff twice, totally humiliating in front of his crowd. Joff crying "I'll tell mother" Tyrion - "good while you're at it tell her why you haven't presented yourself to Lord & Lady Stark to offer your condolences your absence has been noted. So the hound comment's "he wont soon forget that insult" etc.

So now Joff is seething with anger & humiliation at Tyrion, (who he knows is fundamentally correct) he can't go complaining to either his parents without admitting what he's said. So he steals the knife, pays the catspaw & gets his revenge on Tyrion & acting out of his own twisted belief Bran is better off dead. This actually partly explains the knife itself - he's not really bright, he just grabs whatever is handy, he's admitted during the PW a dragonbone handle is too plain (in his eyes) so maybe he thinks it was a "poor looking weapon" he may not have even known it was valaryian steel if he stole it in haste.

[Jaysodope]

Lf blamed tryion because he is the most vulnerable. I believe his hope would be that the starks would kill him and then drive the starks and lanisters into all out war. He knew that tyion would take it as a slight on his family and would retaliate. He didn't blame Jamie because he is significantly harder to kill and cersi is harder to get to with the kingsgaurd. Tryion was the most exposed out the bunch.