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The Sleeper

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    A series of biological ephemera

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  1. The Sleeper

    Aegon VI

    Generally speaking the Tyrells are just fine the way they are. They more or less have everything. The same actually applies to the High Septon. After all it is Tommen's law that allowed the Faith to rearm. If they care for legitimacy at all, they want Tommen on the Throne. The thing that would blow this whole thing apart is Tommen's death. Which is where I think Tyene Sand comes in. Arianne pledges Dorne's support to Aegon in exchange for her becoming his queen. Tyene having infiltrated the Faith, gains access to Maegor's holdfast by joining the Septa's attending Cersei and poisons Tommen. This leaves the Tyrells very high and dry. Unless they want to crown Margaery as queen regnant, they would need to either support Stannis or Myrcela. Things basically fall apart for them and I wouldn't care to venture as to what they would do in such a case. The High Septon can and I think will join Aegon's side. He can provide the legitimacy Aegon desperately needs so he can keep what he gained from Tommen and more. I think there are decent odds he will be part of Aegon's Council. I think these developments have been set up. Cersei's trial is hard to predict. It is a bit of a farcical affair, as the High Septon, regardless to how much he bares his teeth at the regime, he cannot afford to actually have it overthrown as his new found status depends on it. Likewise, the Tyrells despite how much they hate Cersei and want her out of the way they can't afford to have Tommen's paternity come into question. If the Tyrells and the high Septon were in tandem they could use this as an opportunity to force Cersei out of public life for good, but as the church laid hands on Margaery, any collaboration between them is out of the question. Margaery herself is a bit of a dark horse. She is rarely a part of the discussion about the potential developments, which I think is a mistake as she is the only one in position to hold the alliance together. I do think Aegon is set up to sit on the throne, but it still requires a bit of doing. And child murder.
  2. The Sleeper

    Who is the great other?

    The adversarial deity in the Red Priests religion. Not an actual entity.
  3. The Sleeper

    Why did Benjen take the black?

    A factor that may have played a part is that Benjen needed to be shielded from legal consequences and/or conflict with the current regime. In short Benjen needed to be out of Robert's reach and avoid placing Ned in a position to chose between his brother and Robert.
  4. The Sleeper

    Should Martin have ended the War of Five Kings?

    At the very least, Storm wouldn't be what it is if he hadn't. This is a fundamental choice in the direction of the books. I think Martin is a good enough writer to have made the story work in a different direction, but it is this that makes ASoIaF what it is. He is using profound earth-shattering consequences as part of the narrative, which is why the books as a whole have such impact.
  5. The Sleeper

    Varys and Illyrio under the Red Keep

    The bit of dialogue posted by the OP suggests that they had murdered Jon Arryn and were considering doing the same to Ned. But it doesn't actually say that. Jon Arryn's assassination and Ned's potential are not in fact linked. Think of it like this. It was a fact that Ned was gathering evidence and would see the truth of Cersei's children paternity soon, leading to a war that is inconvenient to Illyrio and Varys. They know Arryn was assassinated (or simply died, it works either way) and Illyrio wonders if Ned's death might forestall the unwelcome developments. Varys probably has assassinated someone before and got away with it and he has definitely adapted to a change of a person of power. However Ned is both well connected and his household isn't prone to infiltration. An assassination may not be possible or get them the results they want. This sequence does not contradict the dialogue as written and does not imply that Varys or Illyrio were involved or even aware of Jon Arryn's assassination. Just considering options. Their dialogue was written as a red herring to the reader. I don't believe that Martin had conceived any indication of Jon Connington, there is no sign of him. It seems to me that Dany's invasion was always meant to be undermined, starting from her idyllic musings about the place and Jorah correcting Viserys' misconception. A purported Targaryen with a better claim than hers sitting on the Throne she is aiming for certainly plays into that. Varys and Illyrio also need a raison d'etre, while the latter's lack of interest in Viserys and Dany is glaringly obvious from Dany's wedding. So while Jon Connington probably wasn't a wink in his eyes at that stage, I think Aegon was waiting in the wings or at the least a claimant for Illyrio and Varys to support. Though when Varys has the chance to comment on Aegon's death in their scene at the Black Cells he let's it slide.
  6. The Sleeper

    Who will know about Jon Snow at the end?

    For one there are a lot of assumptions that may but are not necessarily true. It doesn't make really a difference. Also, I believe you are referring to the fact that they have a Blackwood ancestor, if not I am not sure what you mean. Other than that, Rhaegar is dead, the Targaryens deposed, Lyanna is dead, Ned is dead and Jon has lived his life as a bastard and a brother of the Night's Watch. Knowledge of his parentage will not change any of that. So what difference would it make? Because in practical terms the revelation changes nothing. I feel perfectly safe to say that characters like Euron or Bronn will not care in the slightest bit and it won't change the agenda or reality of the overwhelming majority of houses in the seven kingdoms. Personal implications are another thing and it would be interesting to see how this might change things for Mel, but the political landscape will be unaffected. If such a revelation took place at the beginning of the series it would have been earth-shattering, but right now...
  7. The Sleeper

    Who is going to get poisoned by the mushrooms?

    Nice topic. The mushrooms seem very much like a Chekhov's Gun, so they are very likely to be used. It would be ironic if he feeds them to Illyrio, or anyone at his side. I can't think of a way to tell who they are meant for though.
  8. The Sleeper

    Prince Nymor's letter (slight crackpot)

    I think Aegon believed that he was the Prince that was Promised, which was in fact his whole reason for invading and Dorne came up with something that proved to him that he was not. Hence his urgent consultation of his libraries.
  9. The Sleeper

    Who will know about Jon Snow at the end?

    Not that rare actually. Case in point Brown Ben Plum has it and probably enough to ride a dragon. Between the habits of Dragonstone, the Martels, Aegon IV and the other houses Targaryens married into and without getting into Baratheons and Blackfyre, there should be quite a lot of people with Targaryen ancestry. So, riding a dragon actually proves nothing.
  10. The Sleeper

    Is Young Griffs invasion filler?

    Nope, he has been set up since Clash to steal Dany's thunder. Remember the mummer's dragon. After all, Dance was supposed to have been the second volume in a trilogy. Martin has been setting up controversy of Dany's raison d' etre of invading Westeros. Finding a Targaryen with his ass on the Throne and with a better claim than her, strips her of any legitimacy. So, Aegon is supposed to do at least that.
  11. The Sleeper

    Who will know about Jon Snow at the end?

    That is a pretty big assumption, one I am not willing to make. Still, it is a possibility that some Northmen will declare for him. Regardless, I believe my point still stands. Jon's parentage has personal implications and it will also have implications on the supernatural aspect of the story. Due to its nature and controversy it ranks way back behind many more immediate and important considerations as far as politics are concerned.
  12. The Sleeper

    Who will know about Jon Snow at the end?

    They may have guarded who they regarded to be the king. Jon's potential legitimacy rests on a long dead prince who had overstepped his bounds to begin with. It is at best shaky. People would first have to believe his paternity, then would have to accept his legitimacy and then consider it relevant. Add these things together and there will not be many people left. There could be a few important ones, though. In short, I don't see his paternity having any considerable political significance in and of itself. Its impact would rather personal.
  13. The Sleeper

    Who will know about Jon Snow at the end?

    Drogon is Dany's. She might have soured on long lost nephews by that point.
  14. The Sleeper

    Could you have predicted ADWD events?

    The broad strokes of the upcoming events yes, I feel quite confident I can see them coming, after many many rereads and discussions here. There is after all considerable set up. Beyong that, the details and what comes after, no. There are so many moving parts, enough that Martin can plausibly do anything. Which is probably the reason the damn thing is taking so long. There should be three or four versions of it by now which Martin is trying to pick from.
  15. The Sleeper

    Jon's resurrection

    I wouldn't care to speculate on the specifics, but whichever the case I don't think he would return entirely or at all human. It would allow him to go toe to toe with the others and possibly access the heart of Winter. The Prince that was Promised is meant to be sacrificed.
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