[TRP Spoilers] Murder Mysteries in the Rogue Prince

[Lord Varys]

Antler's Fury,

well, my point would be that the final decision to push for King Aegon II may have come only with Rhaenyra's marriage to Aegon (and the quarrel between Aemond and Rhaenyra's sons). Before that, Alicent may have actually considered to go for putting her grandchild on the Iron Throne - and/or by trying to have Aegon and her other children become a power behind Queen Rhaenyra.

Such an arrangement would also have enabled Viserys to settle the differences among his own children. He may have been opposed to the whole idea back when Aegon was still a child, but I'd not be surprised if he himself would have been in favor of the idea to marry Rhaenyra to either Aegon or Aemond to reunite the two branches of House Targaryen.

We see the amount of power a King/Prince Consort wields with both Daemon Targaryen and Hizdahr zo Loraq. As Rhaenyra's husband, Prince Aegon could easily take the Iron Throne, either upon their father's death, or some time afterwards. This whole marriage would also provide the Greens with access to Rhaenyra's household - either because she and her sons would then live at KL, or because Aegon would take his own servants/retainers with him to Dragonstone.

Arranging accidents/murdering people would have become much more easier, if Rhaenyra and her family had returned to KL. I'm saying Alicent could have done it with Rhaenyra on Dragonstone - she obviously couldn't.

On Larys: Well, he named Clubfoot. I guess if he had a motivation to kill his elder brother and father it would have had more to do with certain emotional issues between Larys and Lyonel/Harwin, rather than with actual greed. I imagine Alicent realizing that such a rift in the family existed, and that she slowly worked to turn Larys against his father. That would make even more sense, if Lyonel was staunchly in the Black camp.

Lyonel died in 119 AC. That was ten years before Viserys' own death, and he was not yet ailing back then. There was no need to name an experienced guy Hand. He could chosen a new man, or someone from the Black camp - but Viserys chose Otto, because Alicent pushed him (and, most likely, because he actually liked the man - their only disagreement, apparently, was the succession).

[Antler's Fury]

well, my point would be that the final decision to push for King Aegon II may have come only with Rhaenyra's marriage to Aegon (and the quarrel between Aemond and Rhaenyra's sons). Before that, Alicent may have actually considered to go for putting her grandchild on the Iron Throne - and/or by trying to have Aegon and her other children become a power behind Queen Rhaenyra.

Nope, Alicent was pressuring Viserys to put Aegon ahead of Rhaenyra since he and his siblings were born. Alicent and Otto pestered Viserys for two years until he finally got sick of it and fired Otto:

Queen Alicent had soon proved to be as fertile as she was pretty. In 107 AC, she bore the king a healthy son, naming him Aegon, after the Conqueror. Two years later, she produced a daughter for the king, Helaena; in 110 AC, she bore His Grace a second son, Aemond, who was said to be half the size of his elder brother but twice as fierce.

Yet Princess Rhaenyra continued to sit at the foot of the Iron Throne when her father held court, and His Grace began bringing her to meetings of the small council as well. Though many lords and knights sought her favor, the princess had eyes only for Ser Criston Cole, her gallant young sworn shield. "Ser Criston protects the princess from her enemies, but who protects the princess from Ser Criston?" Queen Alicent asked one day at court.

The amity between Her Grace and her stepdaughter had proved short-lived, for both Rhaenyra and Alicent aspired to be the first lady of the realm … and though the queen had given the king not one but two male heirs, Viserys had done nothing to change the order of succession. The Princess of Dragonstone remained his heir, with half the lords of Westeros sworn to defend her rights. Those who asked, "What of the ruling of the Great Council of 101?" found their words falling on deaf ears. The matter had been decided, so far as King Viserys was concerned; it was not an issue His Grace cared to revisit.

Still, questions persisted, not the least from Queen Alicent herself. Loudest amongst her supporters was her father, Ser Otto Hightower, Hand of the King. Pushed too far on the matter, in 109 AC King Viserys stripped Ser Otto of his chain of office and named in his place the taciturn Lord of Harrenhal, Lyonel Strong. "This Hand will not hector me," His Grace proclaimed.

Even after Ser Otto had returned to Oldtown, a "queen's party" still existed at court; a group of powerful lords friendly to Queen Alicent and supportive of the rights of her sons. Against them was pitted the "party of the princess". King Viserys loved both his wife and daughter and hated conflict and contention. He strove all his days to keep the peace between his women and to please both with gifts and gold and honors. So long as he lived and ruled and kept the balance, the feasts and tourneys continued as before, and peace prevailed throughout the realm, though there were some, sharp-eyed, who observed the dragons of one party snapping and spitting flame at the dragons of the other party whenever they chanced to pass near each other."

Such an arrangement would also have enabled Viserys to settle the differences among his own children. He may have been opposed to the whole idea back when Aegon was still a child, but I'd not be surprised if he himself would have been in favor of the idea to marry Rhaenyra to either Aegon or Aemond to reunite the two branches of House Targaryen.

Viserys opposed the idea back when it was time to marry Rhaenyra originally, because he did not want Alicent to put her descendents on the Iron Throne, even though her marriage to Aegon would indeed reunite the two branches of his House. Furthermore, this arrangement would only please the Greens, not the Blacks. Rhaenyra would oppose the marriage, so it could hardly settle any differences. Indeed, Viserys ultimately didn't name Rhaenyra Hand because that would mean putting her in close quarters with Alicent, so it doesn't make sense that he'd agree to a marriage that would do the same.

We see the amount of power a King/Prince Consort wields with both Daemon Targaryen and Hizdahr zo Loraq. As Rhaenyra's husband, Prince Aegon could easily take the Iron Throne, either upon their father's death, or some time afterwards.

In both Hizdahr and Daemon's case, everyone deferred to their wives, not them. Similarly, Aegon would face opposition from Rhaenyra, who would be in charge; he would only be a consort, and Rhaenyra's heir would be Jace, not his children. Aegon wouldn't be able to inherit until Rhaenyra and her kids were all dead, and if Alicent could arrange that, she'd have no reason to go through the roundabout plot to kill Laenor and marry Rhaenyra to Aegon in the first place.

This whole marriage would also provide the Greens with access to Rhaenyra's household - either because she and her sons would then live at KL, or because Aegon would take his own servants/retainers with him to Dragonstone.

This is exactly why Viserys would never agree to the marriage. He previously had to separate the Blacks and the Greens to keep them from fighting, so there's no way he would agree to a marriage that would force them to live in the same place. Rhaenyra's first marriage fixed his relationship with the Velaryons and gave him grandchildren, so he had no reason to force Rhaenyra, his favorite child, into a marriage she wouldn't want that would obviously benefit the Greens.

Arranging accidents/murdering people would have become much more easier, if Rhaenyra and her family had returned to KL. I'm saying Alicent could have done it with Rhaenyra on Dragonstone - she obviously couldn't.

If Alicent could have Qarl Correy kill Laenor on Driftmark and get away with it, then this suggests that she had the means to plant a spy in Rhaenyra's household and arrange a murder. She wouldn't need Rhaenyra to come to KL to kill her. Furthermore, if she could arrange to have Rhaenyra killed in KL, she would have done it before Rhaenyra turned sixteen and moved from KL to Dragonstone.

On Larys: Well, he named Clubfoot. I guess if he had a motivation to kill his elder brother and father it would have had more to do with certain emotional issues between Larys and Lyonel/Harwin, rather than with actual greed. I imagine Alicent realizing that such a rift in the family existed, and that she slowly worked to turn Larys against his father. That would make even more sense, if Lyonel was staunchly in the Black camp.

It may well have been both, with Larys wanting to rid himself of relatives he disliked and get Harrenhall in the bargain. However, if Larys was a staunch Black supporter, then he'd remain one even if he killed his staunch Black relatives to take Harrenhall. This tells me that he was neither pro-Black nor pro-Green, but willing to take the side of whoever would give him the best deal, which was the Greens.

Lyonel died in 119 AC. That was ten years before Viserys' own death, and he was not yet ailing back then. There was no need to name an experienced guy Hand. He could chosen a new man, or someone from the Black camp - but Viserys chose Otto, because Alicent pushed him (and, most likely, because he actually liked the man - their only disagreement, apparently, was the succession).

Nope, Viserys was ailing by this point:

Lord Strong had been the King's Hand, and Viserys had come to rely upon his strength and counsel. His Grace had reached the age of three-and-forty, and had grown quite stout. He no longer had a young man's vigor and was afflicted by gout, aching joints, back pain, and a tightness in the chest that came and went and oft left him red-faced and short of breath. The governance of the realm was a daunting task; the king needed a strong, capable Hand to shoulder some of his burdens. Briefly he considered sending for Princess Rhaenyra. Who better to rule with him than the daughter he meant to succeed him on the Iron Throne? But that would have meant bringing the princess and her sons back to King's Landing, where more conflict with the queen and her own brood would have been inevitable. He considered his brother as well, until he recalled Prince Daemon's previous stints on the small council. Grand Maester Mellos suggested bringing in some younger man, and put forward several names, but His Grace chose familiarity, and recalled to court Ser Otto Hightower, the queen's father, who had filled the office before for both Viserys and the Old King.

[Colonel Green]

On that last subject, I think (hindsight = 20/20, and all that) that Viserys should have chosen Lord Corlys to be the King's Hand after Lord Lyonel died. There were good-ish reasons not to bring Rhaenyra back to the capital at that time (Daemon as well, but he probably wasn't suited for it anyway). Lord Corlys wasn't directly involved in the bad blood, that we know of, seems to have been more than capable of doing the Hand's job, and would have backed Viserys' chosen succession.

[Lord Varys]

Just two things:

1. I'm aware of the fact that Alicent always wanted to change the succession in favor of her children, my point was that at that time she might have been content with a sort of hidden takeover, rather than an open war upon her husband's death. Of course, she would have preferred it if Viserys had changed the succession from the beginning, but since that was not the case, I guess she was aiming for a successful coup rather than what she did get in the end.

2. Okay, Viserys was then already somewhat sick in 119, but he was not yet completely incapacitated. Appointing Otto was the worst decision Viserys could make, him being experienced or not. He would be in charge upon his death, then, and it was completely naive to assume that he'd uphold his last will.

As to the consort thing:

Technically, yes. But both Rhaenyra and Daenerys are women. Westeros is a patriarchal society. If the consort has/can build a strong power base, then he'd be easily able to overthrow/incarcerate his wife. A noble husband in Westeros is his wife's 'lord husband'. And Rhaenyra even named Prince Daemon 'Lord Protector of the Realm'. That means that he is in charge of her military forces. He commands her armies, not she. Which is why I find him going to Harrenhal completely useless from a military/strategic POV. Legally, he had all the power he ever craved, he could have easily taken away the power from his wife - with or without bloodshed. The Goldcloaks of KL, led by Luthor Largent - where his men. He'd have met little/no opposition in KL if he had returned there to take the power.

[Antler's Fury]

1. I'm aware of the fact that Alicent always wanted to change the succession in favor of her children, my point was that at that time she might have been content with a sort of hidden takeover, rather than an open war upon her husband's death. Of course, she would have preferred it if Viserys had changed the succession from the beginning, but since that was not the case, I guess she was aiming for a successful coup rather than what she did get in the end.

I agree, but if she wanted to carry out a hidden takeover, then murdering Laenor to marry Aegon to Rhaenyra and then declaring Aegon as king outright against Rhaenyra's protests would actually cause open war between Aegon's supporters and Rhaenyra's supporters. Rhaenyra would not take that lying down, and the people who recognized her as queen would see Aegon as a consort attempting to take control and fight him.

2. Okay, Viserys was then already somewhat sick in 119, but he was not yet completely incapacitated. Appointing Otto was the worst decision Viserys could make, him being experienced or not. He would be in charge upon his death, then, and it was completely naive to assume that he'd uphold his last will.

Exactly. But this is precisely why Alicent's participating in the killing of Lyonel doesn't make much sense. She'd only have reason to do this if she had good reason to believe that Viserys would reinstate Otto. She didn't. After all, the reason she wanted Otto reinstated was because she wanted him to back Aegon over Rhaenyra when Viserys died, and Viserys fired Otto precisely because he was aware Otto would try this, and didn't want him to.

Technically, yes. But both Rhaenyra and Daenerys are women. Westeros is a patriarchal society. If the consort has/can build a strong power base, then he'd be easily able to overthrow/incarcerate his wife.

Not without starting a war against his wife's supporters who'd recognize this for exactly what it is: a coup.

A noble husband in Westeros is his wife's 'lord husband'. And Rhaenyra even named Prince Daemon 'Lord Protector of the Realm'. That means that he is in charge of her military forces. He commands her armies, not she. Which is why I find him going to Harrenhal completely useless from a military/strategic POV. Legally, he had all the power he ever craved, he could have easily taken away the power from his wife - with or without bloodshed. The Goldcloaks of KL, led by Luthor Largent - where his men. He'd have met little/no opposition in KL if he had returned there to take the power.

He'd face opposition from the entire Black army and their dragons. The Velaryons formed the bulk of the Black's forces, and their lord, Corlys Velaryon, was Rhaenyra's Hand and would therefore surely oppose Daemon. Attempting to seize power on his own would cause the Black faction to implode in on itself and allow the Greens to win more easily. In contrast, taking Harrenhall cut off Larys from his seat and deprived him of his levies and wealth.

On that last subject, I think (hindsight = 20/20, and all that) that Viserys should have chosen Lord Corlys to be the King's Hand after Lord Lyonel died. There were good-ish reasons not to bring Rhaenyra back to the capital at that time (Daemon as well, but he probably wasn't suited for it anyway). Lord Corlys wasn't directly involved in the bad blood, that we know of, seems to have been more than capable of doing the Hand's job, and would have backed Viserys' chosen succession.

What's baffling about this is that Viserys didn't even need hindsight to know that Otto would support Aegon over Rhaenyra when he died and thereby cause civil war. He fired Otto himself precisely because Otto backed Aegon too vociferously, so what made him think that Otto would support Rhaenyra upon being reinstated? Corlys would have been a wise choice instead, but considering how important the succession was to Viserys, just about anybody would have been better than Otto at that point.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

No matter how much Alicent, or any of the other Greens, were actually truly involved in, I still find it strange that Gyldayn doesn't even consider the posibility (in this edited version of the story, at least), since he seems to consider all other possibilities.. Even Viserys, while that would be completely out of character.

I agree that making Corlys Hand of the King instead of Otto would have been a very smart move. It would have softened the blow after the spouses of both of Corlys' recently deceased children married each other and had a child within a few months. And it would make up for Viserys not having chosen Laena as his Queen, and a bit for Rhaenys having been passed over (just as Laena and Laenor were).

What's baffling about this is that Viserys didn't even need hindsight to know that Otto would support Aegon over Rhaenyra when he died and thereby cause civil war. He fired Otto himself precisely because Otto backed Aegon too vociferously, so what made him think that Otto would support Rhaenyra upon being reinstated? Corlys would have been a wise choice instead, but considering how important the succession was to Viserys, just about anybody would have been better than Otto at that point.

True. Otto was fired because he was pressing the matter too much, and thus Viserys could have known (should have known) that Otto's feelings about the matter wouldn't have changed. Perhaps Viserys remembered the time that Otto supported Rhaenyra's rights over Daemons, and held on to that.

Exactly. But this is precisely why Alicent's participating in the killing of Lyonel doesn't make much sense. She'd only have reason to do this if she had good reason to believe that Viserys would reinstate Otto. She didn't. After all, the reason she wanted Otto reinstated was because she wanted him to back Aegon over Rhaenyra when Viserys died, and Viserys fired Otto precisely because he was aware Otto would try this, and didn't want him to.

If Alicent had been involved with the Harrenhal fire, no matter in what way, she might have been preparing Viserys for this for quite some time. Talking about her father, about the times he was Hand, about all the things he did for Viserys etc. etc. So that whent he time came, the memory of Otto being Hand for Viserys was stuck in Viserys' head.

[Antler's Fury]

Perhaps Viserys remembered the time that Otto supported Rhaenyra's rights over Daemons, and held on to that.

If Alicent had been involved with the Harrenhal fire, no matter in what way, she might have been preparing Viserys for this for quite some time. Talking about her father, about the times he was Hand, about all the things he did for Viserys etc. etc. So that whent he time came, the memory of Otto being Hand for Viserys was stuck in Viserys' head.

But would it really take that much common sense for Viserys to conclude that Alicent was doing this so that she and Otto could crown Aegon when he died?

[Lord Varys]

Antler's Fury,

my point about Daemon being Prince Consort and Lord Protector of the Realm referred to his official title during the Dance, and the power he wielded as leader of the Blacks during that war. His power grab, according to my scenario, would not have happened early in the war, but only after Rhaenyra order Lord Mooton to seize and execute Nettles (before that, he had no reason for such an action). By then, Corlys Velarys had been arrested as a traitor, and Rhaenyra's base of power in KL, the Goldcloaks, were effectively Daemon's men. Thus he could have very easily taken the power - perhaps even the crown. Especially if he had declared his intention to free the Sea Snake - that would have won him the support of the Velaryon men, who were effectively Rhaenyra's other power base.

The point of a sort sneaky Hizdahr-like takeover of Rhaenyra would be that the very fact that Rhaenyra was married to Aegon would have undermined Rhaenyra's power base, driving a wedge through her followers and party, making a Green power grab much easier and likelier to succeed. Most of Rhaenyra's followers were men, and it would have much more difficult for her to insist on ruling herself, and war against her own husband. If such a marriage had taken place, the two parties would have been much more intertwined and open warfare would have been much more difficult.

[Anath]

Killing Rhaenyra was out of question in the beginning, before her wedding. The tensions were running too high, the factions were clear cut, there would be all kind of rumours. Plus, Viserys loved Rhaenyra and might not be willing to turn a blind eye, love for Alicent or not. While a marriage between her and Aegon, at any point, could soothe the tension and erase the differences to sone extent. That would be great for Alicent, not so great for Rhaenyra. Plus, Rhaenyra's position was guaranteed and supported by Viserys. Alicent and Aegon could afford to wait until he was dead to start with the harsher measures. Without her father to support her, she would be - and was - much more vulnerable to their machinations. She would have been even more so with Aegon as her lord husband.

[Antler's Fury]

Killing Rhaenyra was out of question in the beginning, before her wedding. The tensions were running too high, the factions were clear cut, there would be all kind of rumours.

The tensions only increased as time went on. Killing her immediately would have been best, so if Alicent couldn't do that, then I doubt she'd kill Laenor as part of a roundabout attempt to marry Rhaenyra to Aegon, only to kill Rhaenyra and her kids later on.

While a marriage between her and Aegon, at any point, could soothe the tension and erase the differences to sone extent.

The point of a sort sneaky Hizdahr-like takeover of Rhaenyra would be that the very fact that Rhaenyra was married to Aegon would have undermined Rhaenyra's power base, driving a wedge through her followers and party, making a Green power grab much easier and likelier to succeed. Most of Rhaenyra's followers were men, and it would have much more difficult for her to insist on ruling herself, and war against her own husband. If such a marriage had taken place, the two parties would have been much more intertwined and open warfare would have been much more difficult.

Rhaenyra was Viserys' favorite child. There's no way he'd marry her to Aegon against her will, especially seeing that she already had grandchildren. There would be no need for such a marriage.

[Lord Varys]

Alicent (and Otto, his new Hand), would have tried to find reasons why such a marriage could benefit all. Viserys hated dissensions, and if the Greens had played their game, he'd have consented eventually. Especially if the Alicent/Otto had succeeded in painting themselves as reasonable people who want to reunite the family.

You have to keep in mind that Rhaenyra/Daemon are literally excluded from any decision-making process in KL fro 119 onwards. This obviously had an impact on Viserys' own decisions. As I've already said, Viserys may have been adamant on the succession issue, but he did clearly nothing to prevent a Green coup. In fact, his big mistake was to reappoint Otto and allow the Greens to gain ever more power and influence at his own court.

In 129, Rhaenyra/Daemon clearly still had friends in KL, but pretty much no outspoken loyalists on the Small Council nor in the Kingsguard. TPatQ mentions that a lot of people were arrested during the coup, but they seem to have been mostly mid-level courtiers. Alicent and Otto had successfully removed almost all the Blacks from the Small Council.

[Antler's Fury]

Alicent (and Otto, his new Hand), would have tried to find reasons why such a marriage could benefit all. Viserys hated dissensions, and if the Greens had played their game, he'd have consented eventually. Especially if the Alicent/Otto had succeeded in painting themselves as reasonable people who want to reunite the family.

A marriage between Aegon and Rhaenyra would only reunite the family if the children of Aegon and Rhaenyra were seen as Rhaenyra's heirs, and there's no reason for Viserys or Rhaenyra to accept that. All that would do is create a fight between Rhaenyra's sons from Aegon and Rhaenyra's sons from Laenor/Harwin. Viserys already saw the latter set of kids as his heirs, so there would be no reason to agree to this marriage and create more competition for them.

Plus, one of the reasons that Viserys reinstates Otto to the Handship instead of Rhaenyra is because being Hand would necessitate Rhaenyra and her children being in KL where they would undoubtedly fight with Alicent and her children. Viserys therefore reinstated Otto to keep the Blacks and Greens apart. As such, there's little reason to believe that he would agree to a marriage that would put the two factions in close proximity so that they could fight. He had succeeded in preventing dissensions by keeping the Greens in KL and the Blacks on Dragonstone/Driftmark; a marriage would force them together and create more dissensions for him to worry about.

You have to keep in mind that Rhaenyra/Daemon are literally excluded from any decision-making process in KL fro 119 onwards. This obviously had an impact on Viserys' own decisions. As I've already said, Viserys may have been adamant on the succession issue, but he did clearly nothing to prevent a Green coup. In fact, his big mistake was to reappoint Otto and allow the Greens to gain ever more power and influence at his own court.

In 129, Rhaenyra/Daemon clearly still had friends in KL, but pretty much no outspoken loyalists on the Small Council nor in the Kingsguard. TPatQ mentions that a lot of people were arrested during the coup, but they seem to have been mostly mid-level courtiers. Alicent and Otto had successfully removed almost all the Blacks from the Small Council.

A marriage would mean that Rhaenyra would return to KL and have more influence over decision-making. If Alicent and Otto wanted a monopoly over decision making to prepare for a coup, they would not want to propose a marriage that would bring Rhaenyra back to KL.

[DNDM]

This is an intersting subject. My actual opinion: Daemon killed Rhea Royce, Daemon and Rhaenyra killed their respective spouses in order to be free to get married, and because Rhaenyra carried Daemon' child.

Do note that Daemon first two wives dies by falling in the stairs (whereas they were supposed to be recovering in their bed). Do note, too, that Rhaenyra is there when Laena Velaryon fall, and that Daemon is away both times (perfect alibi).

Laena and Laenor death both occured in 120, Rhaenyra and Daemon got married before the end of the year, and Rhaenyra gave birth to Aegon the Younger before the end of the year.

Assuming that a year is twelve month, and a pregnancy is nine month, and using our universe appellations...

January 120: death of Laena, Rhaenyra "confort Daemon in his grief"

(March?) 120 : Daemon and Rhaenyra are regularly sleeping together. Rhaenyra become pregnant.

(April?) 120: Death of Laenor.

(May?) 120: Funeral Pyre of Laenor at Driftmark, Aegon lose an eye and gain a dragon, King Viserys decide that Breakbones must leave Dragonstone.

June 120: Rhaenyra realise she is pregnant. She secretly and hastily marries Daemon.

(August?) 120: Fire at Harrehall, death of the Strongs

December 120: Rhaenyra give birth to Aegon the Younger.

Regarding the Strongs, I don't know, a lot of people wanted them dead. But 17 death at the same time... It must have been a pretty big fire, and someone probably barred the door of the tower. We could put that one on Daemon-Rhaenyra too, I suppose. If Daemon and Rhaenyra were already sleeping together in March 120, Breakbones could not have been very happy. And King Viserys decides to senf him back to Harrenhall... Rhaenyra and Daemon probably decided that he was a liability.