So Varys and Illyrio deemed Viserys(and Dany) unworthy to know of Aegon's existence?

[sertravisredbeard]

If he told Viserys the word would have been out pretty quickly, with the "Last Dragon" drunkenly screaming at every passerby about how he, his sister and his long-lost uncle are going across the sea to retake their kingdom. That, or Viserys would get jealous and try to kill Aegon whether he's real or fake before he can press his better claim.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No, Ilyrio asked Viserys to stay with him in his mansion specifically to prevent him from getting himself killed by the Dothraki. Viserys insisted on going with Drogo, and got himself crowned, throwing a wrench into a few plans.

And you don't think there's some reverse psychology going on here? Just a little bit?

ETA: Ninja'd.

[Julia Martell]

fAegon is a Blackfyre is kind of like R+L=J (although not quite as well supported), it's like a magic decoder ring that, once you plug in, makes everything start to make sense:

Why were Varys and Illyrio treating Dany and Viserys so cavalierly, like they were disposable? Because they were nothing to them, they were dependence of a usurper, Daeron II, who has kept the "true king" in exile for a hundred years.

Why would the Golden Company support a Targaryan when the whole point of their existence is to fight against Targaryans? They wouldn't.

Why would Varys and Illyrio hide Rhaegar's son away, knowing there would be no way to prove he is who he says he is in the future? Seriously- a lot of readers were complaining that he came out of nowhere, imagine how the Lords of the Seven Kingdoms feel when a dead baby shows up saying that he's King now. Dany and Viserys may have lived on the street, but they never disappeared for years on end so that there was no reason to believe they were legitimate. They have an elaborate plan to make fAegon a saviour by making the Lannister fight the Starks, and the Dothraki invade and pillage everyone and them come fAegon swoop in. Or something. Right? This is a crazy, unnecessary complicated plan. Unless fAegon is fake and they're desperately creating a smoke screen around him and hoping he'll be so awesome that no one will ask any questions.

The real Crowning Moment of Magnificent Bastard-ness is that they've raised this kid to believe their story. fAegon thinks he's the real deal.

It's kind of a Hail Mary Pass Blackfyre Rebellion. They've tried everything for five rebellions, and now they're willing to think they've failed and call Aegon Blackfyre Aegon Targaryans and settle for a moral victory.

[LordCouture]

I've said this before, but screw it, I'll say it again:

If Varys and Illyrio wanted Dany and Viserys out of the picture, they took a risk by sending them to the Dothraki, not a BIG risk, but a significant one nonetheless.

See, obviously the odds of the Dothraki invading Westeros were almost unexistant, but let's say Drogo doesn't die and they invade. What happens?

I'll tell you what happens: Aegon loses the backbone of his forces. The Golden Company was planning on joining Dany, Viserys, and the Dothraki, so there goes that. Dorne likely declares for Viserys too, per the betrothal to Arianne.

So which army would Aegon use to beat the Targs and their savages in that scenario?

The plan was too risky, it could have gone wrong in so many ways. I think it would have been safer to silently dispose of the Targs in Illyrio's manse, bug that's because I'm not a big gambler myself.

I guess JonCon knew that Illyrio sheltered Viserys & Dany and it would have raise suspiscion if V&D disappeared all of sudden. He would probably think something like "Hey, wait a minute.... Didn't you guys shelter Rhaegar's siblings? Where are they now? ... What? They're gone? You lost them? Aren't you guys Targaryens supporters? Hmmm..." and then connect the dots and realise that Varys&Illyrio are not working for the Targaryens, but for themselves/the Blackfyres.

I also don't get why the Golden Company would leave Aegon and join Dany/Viserys/Drogo ? These guys follow Illyrio's orders (well, except when Aegon himself gives a different command), they don't work for Viserys and Dany. If Illyrio don't want them to join the Dothraki, then they don't join the Dothraki. There was zero risk of losing the GC.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I guess JonCon knew that Illyrio sheltered Viserys & Dany and it would have raise suspiscion if V&D disappeared all of sudden. He would probably think something like "Hey, wait a minute.... Didn't you guys shelter Rhaegar's siblings? Where are they now? ... What? They're gone? You lost them? Aren't you guys Targaryens supporters? Hmmm..." and then connect the dots and realise that Varys&Illyrio are not working for the Targaryens, but for themselves/the Blackfyres.

I also don't get why the Golden Company would leave Aegon and join Dany/Viserys/Drogo ? These guys follow Illyrio's orders (well, except when Aegon himself gives a different command), they don't work for Viserys and Dany. If Illyrio don't want them to join the Dothraki, then they don't join the Dothraki. There was zero risk of losing the GC.

Tristan Rivers says that Illyrio's original plan was for the Company to join Viserys and the Dothraki, but that went up in flames when Viserys died. So yeah, the GC was in from the beginning.

I guess Aegon could have made a surprise appearance along with the Targs, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company, but that doesn't strike me as something Varys and IIIyrio would do. Most likely, that sort of people are the ones Aegon should fight to get the support of the lords of Westeros.

As for Illyrio/Varys killing the Targs, I would think they'd be smart enough to murder them before inviting them to IIIyrio's manse, so no one would know of their involvement

Overall, I believe sending the Targs to the Dothraki was a calculated risk, and I get that, but I just can't wrap my head around the entire plan

[Ingelheim]

fAegon is a Blackfyre is kind of like R+L=J (although not quite as well supported), it's like a magic decoder ring that, once you plug in, makes everything start to make sense:

Why were Varys and Illyrio treating Dany and Viserys so cavalierly, like they were disposable? Because they were nothing to them, they were dependence of a usurper, Daeron II, who has kept the "true king" in exile for a hundred years.

Why would the Golden Company support a Targaryan when the whole point of their existence is to fight against Targaryans? They wouldn't.

Why would Varys and Illyrio hide Rhaegar's son away, knowing there would be no way to prove he is who he says he is in the future? Seriously- a lot of readers were complaining that he came out of nowhere, imagine how the Lords of the Seven Kingdoms feel when a dead baby shows up saying that he's King now. Dany and Viserys may have lived on the street, but they never disappeared for years on end so that there was no reason to believe they were legitimate. They have an elaborate plan to make fAegon a saviour by making the Lannister fight the Starks, and the Dothraki invade and pillage everyone and them come fAegon swoop in. Or something. Right? This is a crazy, unnecessary complicated plan. Unless fAegon is fake and they're desperately creating a smoke screen around him and hoping he'll be so awesome that no one will ask any questions.

The real Crowning Moment of Magnificent Bastard-ness is that they've raised this kid to believe their story. fAegon thinks he's the real deal.

It's kind of a Hail Mary Pass Blackfyre Rebellion. They've tried everything for five rebellions, and now they're willing to think they've failed and call Aegon Blackfyre Aegon Targaryans and settle for a moral victory.

Not only fAegon, JonCon as well.

[Julia Martell]

Overall, I believe sending the Targs to the Dothraki was a calculated risk, and I get that, but I just can't wrap my head around the entire plan

They probably thought it was a pretty safe risk. And to be fair, their plan was going perfectly until a fourteen-year-old SUDDENLY RESURRECTS AN EXTICT SPECIES THAT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE A WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION. Their faces must have been so red.

Not only fAegon, JonCon as well.

Yup. Some one high up in the GC must be in on the whole thing, though. Maybe Homeless Harry isn't as useless as JonCon thinks?

[RoamingRonin]

Miles Toyne signed the pact before he died. It's likely he knew more than Strickland but now he's dead.

[Julia Martell]

Miles Toyne signed the pact before he died. It's likely he knew more than Strickland but now he's dead.

Now I just feel sorry for JonCon. Even his buddy was playing him? It's like he's in the Truman Show.

What I really want to know is, how long have Varys and Illyrio been planning all of this? I mean, obviously, Varys started ingratiating himself into Aerys's court with the express purpose of overthrowing the Targaryan dynasty, right?

[Ingelheim]

Now I just feel sorry for JonCon. Even his buddy was playing him? It's like he's in the Truman Show.

What I really want to know is, how long have Varys and Illyrio been planning all of this? I mean, obviously, Varys started ingratiating himself into Aerys's court with the express purpose of overthrowing the Targaryan dynasty, right?

That's where it gets tricky.

Varys told Aerys not to open the KL gates for Tywin in the RR. Many may argue he didn't want a slaughter, but he had to know about the wildfire. He's Varys.

The question is...why did he do that? He wanted Aerys to survive this? He knew the city was going to turn into a massive volcano.

[Good Guy Garlan]

That's where it gets tricky.

Varys told Aerys not to open the KL gates for Tywin in the RR. Many may argue he didn't want a slaughter, but he had to know about the wildfire. He's Varys.

The question is...why did he do that? He wanted Aerys to survive this? He knew the city was going to turn into a massive volcano.

That is a tricky question. My guess is that Varys was just stalling. I think he wanted Ned's forces to arrive and meet Tywin's at the gates. At best, they fight each other to pieces, and at worst, they join forces against Aerys but Ned argues in favor of sending the Targ kids into exile. Then, in Essos, Varys and IIIyrio dispose of the real Aegon quietly and replace him with the fake one. That way, when he shows up in Westeros years later no one would be like, "Hey, are you that kid that had his head smashed against a wall?", as people are likely to do now. So people would have no basis to question his legitimacy.

It's convoluted, of course, but what about Varys isn't? :dunno:

[Ingelheim]

That is a tricky question. My guess is that Varys was just stalling. I think he wanted Ned's forces to arrive and meet Tywin's at the gates. At best, they fight each other to pieces, and at worst, they join forces against Aerys but Ned argues in favor of sending the Targ kids into exile. Then, in Essos, Varys and IIIyrio dispose of the real Aegon quietly and replace him with the fake one. That way, when he shows up in Westeros years later no one would be like, "Hey, are you that kid that had his head smashed against a wall?", as people are likely to do now. So people would have no basis to question his legitimacy.

It's convoluted, of course, but what about Varys isn't? :dunno:

The problem is that Aerys was going to burn the city to the ground within minutes.

And as good as Varys is, I don't know if he was good enough to know that Jaime was going to kill Aerys and the pyromant. He didn't know that Jaime had gotten into his chambers in ASOS.

Actually, at the time Ned arrived, if Jaime hadn't killed the Hand and Aerys, Ned would have arrived to a city of ashes.

There's no reason why Varys wouldn't want Aerys to be killed if he is indeed a BF supporter. And even if he's not, he knows Aerys is a mass murderer. Killing Aerys was necessary. Something Varys would have done it himself.

I've said this already many times: I've just stopped trying to know what and why both Varys and Illyrio do the things that they do. I've even started believing they may not have the same agenda.

[Good Guy Garlan]

The problem is Aerys was going to burn the city to the ground within minutes.

And as good as Varys is, I don't know if he was good enough to know that Jaime was going to kill Aerys and the pyromant. He didn't know that Jaime had gotten into his chambers in ASOS.

Actually, at the time Ned arrived, if Jaime hadn't killed the Hand and Aerys, Ned would have arrived to a city of ashes.

I've said this already many times: I've just stopped trying to know what and why both Varys and Illyrio do the things that they do. I've even started believing they may not have the same agenda.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Aerys only decided to ignite the wildfire caches after Tywin showed his true colors and started killing people left and right. Say, if Tywin and Ned had met at the gates, they might have fought each other, who knows, and then the wildfire plot wouldn't have been necessary (for a while, at least).

But then again, Varys probably wanted the Targs to get obliterated anyway, so I don't know :bang:

Ugh, you're right, their motives are so convoluted, I really think they could be playing each other. Well, I think they're definetely playing the GC, JonCon, Doran, even Aegon, so why not each other?

[Woofless]

I don't think that they thought Viserys, or for that matter Dany, had a hope in hell of persuading the Dothraki to invade Westeros.

Whether they lived or died was immaterial to them, but if they did live and something went wrong with their plan with Young Griff, they could be called upon as backup.

As to not telling them. Why would they? Viserys was a loose cannon. Would you tell him anything that you wanted kept secret? And Dany was a 13yr old little sister, who presumably would feel she owed it to her older brother to tell him.

[Ingelheim]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Aerys only decided to ignite the wildfire caches after Tywin showed his true colors and started killing people left and right. Say, if Tywin and Ned had met at the gates, they might have fought each other, who knows, and then the wildfire plot wouldn't have been necessary (for a while, at least).

But then again, Varys probably wanted the Targs to get obliterated anyway, so I don't know :bang:

Ugh, you're right, their motives are so convoluted, I really think they could be playing each other. Well, I think they're definetely playing the GC, JonCon, Doran, even Aegon, so why not each other?

Actually, I don't remember that accurately right now. My instincts say me he was going to burn the city anyways. He knew the war was lost. But, it doesn't really matter

There's still no reason for Varys to do what he did. Like...0 reasons. -100 REASONS. What he did was suicidal. Either he didn't know about the wildfire (impossible, if you ask me. A 3 year old would have known what Aerys was planning to do once he named a Pyromant his Hand) or, in fact, he was a Targ supporter.

Which also contradicts the fact that Varys told Aerys his own son Rhaegar was planning to overthrown him. And also contradicts the fact that what Varys does is "for the good of the realm". Yeah, letting half a million lives die burning is so good for Westeros.

My own brother told me that he thinks Varys is an "Aerys supporter". Which makes kind of sense, if you think about it. Why would he be that? Not a clue. Maybe Varys is his bastard son. A theory as valid as the secret Blackfyre one.

Also, you have to remind that the fact that Varys didn't want Tywin to enter the city, which means he must have told Aerys that Tywin was a traitor, that he was going to switch sides and kill them. That's not what I would call a healthy advice for someone like Aerys. Telling the King that his old Hand wasn't on his side is the perfect trigger for the Mad King.

And, about the Illyrio-Varys dinamic...while I was reading ADWD, I was sure as hell Illyrio and Varys had different agendas. Illyrion wanted his son fAegon as the King. Varys wanted either Daenerys or Aegon as the King, but a dragon anyways.

But then, after his speech in the epilogue of ADWD, I just gave up.

I don't know what they are doing and why they are doing it. They contradict themselves many times.

[Julia Martell]

You guys, I don't think we're going to figure this out tonight. Let's regroup after aDoS is released and see if it's any more clear then.

You can tell you have a problem when you read something like, "That would be out of character for Varys" and you think, "What WOULD be in character for Varys? What is his character?"

[LordCouture]

Tristan Rivers says that Illyrio's original plan was for the Company to join Viserys and the Dothraki, but that went up in flames when Viserys died. So yeah, the GC was in from the beginning.

I guess Aegon could have made a surprise appearance along with the Targs, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company, but that doesn't strike me as something Varys and IIIyrio would do. Most likely, that sort of people are the ones Aegon should fight to get the support of the lords of Westeros.

As for Illyrio/Varys killing the Targs, I would think they'd be smart enough to murder them before inviting them to IIIyrio's manse, so no one would know of their involvement

Overall, I believe sending the Targs to the Dothraki was a calculated risk, and I get that, but I just can't wrap my head around the entire plan

Illyrio saying he plans to do something does not mean he actually plans to do it. Yeah, he told JonCon and most of the GC that he wants the GC to join the Dothraki so they can invade Westeros together, but that was mostly BS. Remember that the guy has to look like a pro-Targaryen. I think the plan was:

Step 1: Send Viserys & Dany to the Dothraki.

Step 2: Here's the tricky step. The plan here is to wait for Dany & Viserys to die or to provoke their death so Drogo wants to avenge them and invade Westeros.

Step 3: Dothraki invade Westeros alone. They probably can destroyed. Meanwhile, Varys pulls the strings to create lots of tension within Westeros.

Step 4: The Golden Company uses the distraction created by the Dothraki and the tension formed by Varys so they can successfully take over Westeros for Aegon. Many Targaryen loyalists join them to help them.

Now, it is true that it was risky in the sense that Drogo could have decided to go in Westeros even if one of the two Targaryens siblings is still alive, as it nearly happened. So what happens then? Illyrio cannot backtrack and tell the GC to not join the Dothraki as he would look suspiscious. The solution is pretty simple: Send an assassin to kill the surviving Targaryen (Dany, Viserys or both of them) before the Dothraki reach Volantis. That way, Drogo still invades Westeros but he has a good reason to "change his plan" without looking suspiscious. He can tell the GC something like: "Change of plan! Dany & Viserys are both dead so we're not joining the Dothraki anymore. Let them go in Westeros alone, they want revenge, not to put a Targaryen on the Iron Throne, we will have to do the job ourselves" and things go back to step 3.

Since you suggest that they could have kill the Targaryens before they get to Illyrio's manse, you seem to agree with the notion that Illyrio&Varys can kill the siblings at will. Nothing prevented them to do it after Dany's wedding with Drogo.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Since you suggest that they could have kill the Targaryens before they get to Illyrio's manse, you seem to agree with the notion that Illyrio&Varys can kill the siblings at will. Nothing prevented them to do it after Dany's wedding with Drogo.

Well, presumably someone might know they were involved, since they had been living in IIIyrio's manse and all that.

But I guess what you say about stopping the GC in case they planned to join the Dothraki makes sense, but it's...a lot clumsier than I would have expected from two criminal masterminds

I feel like some big part of the puzzle is missing regarding all this. Here's hoping it all gets clearer in tWoW

[LordCouture]

Well, presumably someone might know they were involved, since they had been living in IIIyrio's manse and all that.

But I guess what you say about stopping the GC in case they planned to join the Dothraki makes sense, but it's...a lot clumsier than I would have expected from two criminal masterminds

I feel like some big part of the puzzle is missing regarding all this. Here's hoping it all gets clearer in tWoW

They can make it look like it was another assassination attempt coming from King Robert. Or, now that I think about it, Varys could have convinced the Small Council to try another time to kill Dany. Maybe even convincing them to pay for a Faceless Men by stating how big of a threat she is now that Drogo is on the move. This way, 1. Dany is gone 2. Illyrio still looks like a pro-Targaryen 3. Illyrio does not have to pay a single penny for Dany's death.

[Jane Parallel]

Varys and Illyrio, what a pair!!!

I, as many of you believe, do believe those two wanted Viserys and Daenerys to die because they did not fix with their plan which is to crown Aegon as King of Westeros... I also suspect Aegon is not Rhaegar's son... may be they had fear that Viserys and Dany would not recognize Aegon as their nephew... specially Viserys... but not for the fact of he desiring to be king but for recognizing that boy is not his nephew...

Every person in Westeros or at least the leading families knew of the existance of king Aerys' younger children and that they escaped from the massacre... or at least they knew of Viserys because Dany was born months later so if any loyalist of the Targaryens would take a side that would be Viserys and/or Daenerys side because they knew they exist amd for Aegon it would be a little more hard to believe... everyone believe he died, everyone is sure of that because a body was shown at the feet of Robert Baratheon and Ned Stark also was there... everyone will ask for a proof if Aegon shows up as Rhaegar's son...

And who will doubt of Daenerys when she is the only one who has dragons???

Viserys and Dany were a trouble for Varys' plans...