R+L=J v.98

[BearQueen87]

Okay right, I did quote it. Here's the thing, there are no perfect solutions. So, if he needs more children than Elia can give him, he has to look somewhere else. Here's the problem with that. Between Rhaegar and Lyanna, the woman upon which he's chosen to father these future children, it's unlikely that they are willing to have bastards. So, if he wants children off of this woman, he has to marry her. But that creates its own problem; rival branches of heirs. So, how do you solve this problem?

Also, I think the incest-as-a-problem is somewhat overblown for the Targaryens. Really, the main problem it has caused is that they haven't formed as many marriage alliances as they could have.

I don't know if Rhaegar had a plan to this problem because I don't know if he considered it a problem. I think he expected to have a son with Lyanna not a daughter to marry to Aegon, but I also think that he and Elia had conversations in which Rhaegar made promises that Aegon would always be his heir and he wouldn't try to put Lyanna's son on the throne. Now, is this politically naive? Oh goodness yes. But if R expected TPTWP with L then the son of their union doesn't factor into the Game of Thrones, in R's head, because the son has something more important to take care of.

ETA: pretty much :ninja: by Unmasked Lurker

[Ser Duncan the Small]

I have a couple of potential answers. First, having bastards does not necessarily solve inheritance problems. Blackfyres were bastards (yes, I know, they were legitimized, but someone always worries about them claiming legitimacy) and look at how Cersei wants to kill all of Robert's bastards. So even if Rhaegar thinks the third head could be a bastard (which I am not sure he would have thought would work anyway), it does not really completely solve the succession issues.

As BQ87 has said many times, Rhaegar probably discussed these issues with Elia and she was on board. Even if he did not, Rhaegar really cared about the prophesy more than anything. He would worry about politics later. And if he made the connection, which I believe he did once he knew Elia could not give him a third child, that Lyanna was ice to his fire--and they met at Herrenhal when the red comet was seen--that he decided that Lyanna would give him TPTWP, whose song is ASOIAF. So he could not choose another woman and he had to marry Lyanna to produce a prince--TPTWP.

I believe Joffrey had all the bastards killed, not Cersei

[BearQueen87]

I believe Joffrey had all the bastards killed, not Cersei

I think that's the show. I think Varys "hints" that it was Cersei in ACOK Tyrion II.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Rhaegar considering his children to be three heads of the dragon is a possibility -but it's far from clear. Especially if he thought that the PWWP would be his child with Lyanna. It's equally possible that he intended to start making the three heads of the dragon again with Lyanna. It's supported by the fact that Lyanna got three KG all for herself to protect her from basically nothing, Rhaegar got three KG with him because three men would make such a huge difference on a battlefield with thousands of knights, Aerys got a KG because he was the king (Darry told Jaime he was supposed to protect the king and Rhaegar didn't think to soothe the boy's pride by pointing out that he'd be protecting his future king). Rhaegar didn't take Jaime with him because he didn't dare take away his father's crutch, not because he couldn't take him. At this point, Rhaegar did whatever he wanted and Aerys agreed. Makes sense that he would have been able to send Elia and her children away if he chose. He didn't. I take it to mean they were clearly less valuable in his eyes than Lyanna and his future child/ren with her.

Not exactly a team-building attitude.

I see these facts entirely differently than you do. The reason that there were three KG at ToJ is simple--two were permanently assigned to Rhaegar and so they were with him when he took Lyanna. Hightower finds them much later. But once these three know where ToJ is located, Rhaegar cannot let them be back with Aerys until after the baby is born and they are ready to go back to KL. Aerys would ask them where Lyanna was located, and they would have to answer because they are KG and they cannot lie to the king. So Rhaegar had to keep these three at ToJ to keep the location secret.

As to his concern for Elia--she appeared to be safe in the Red Keep. Yes, there was only one KG, but there were many other guards and RK was virtually impregnable. Only the mistake of letting Tywin in allowed Elia and the children to be murdered. Rhaegar might have believed that by that point, leaving them in RK was safer than trying to smuggle them to Dragonstone given the state of the war at that time. It has nothing to do with preferring Elia over Lyanna. From an objective point of view, Elia seemed safer in RK than Lyanna at ToJ.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I believe Joffrey had all the bastards killed, not Cersei

Sorry, I stand corrected--but my point remains the same (maybe even stronger).

[UnmaskedLurker]

I think that's the show. I think Varys "hints" that it was Cersei in ACOK Tyrion II.

Either way--the point is basically the same whether it is Cersei or Joffrey.

[J. Stargaryen]

I have a couple of potential answers. First, having bastards does not necessarily solve inheritance problems. Blackfyres were bastards (yes, I know, they were legitimized, but someone always worries about them claiming legitimacy) and look at how Cersei wants to kill all of Robert's bastards. So even if Rhaegar thinks the third head could be a bastard (which I am not sure he would have thought would work anyway), it does not really completely solve the succession issues.

As BQ87 has said many times, Rhaegar probably discussed these issues with Elia and she was on board. Even if he did not, Rhaegar really cared about the prophesy more than anything. He would worry about politics later. And if he made the connection, which I believe he did once he knew Elia could not give him a third child, that Lyanna was ice to his fire--and they met at Herrenhal when the red comet was seen--that he decided that Lyanna would give him TPTWP, whose song is ASOIAF. So he could not choose another woman and he had to marry Lyanna to produce a prince--TPTWP.

So, your argument is that Rhaegar was smart enough to realize that he needed a son with Lyanna, but that he didn't use any of this brainpower to consider the potential ramifications of starting another branch of heirs? Sure, prophecy was more important to him, but it's not like his team of toddlers were going to save the world. They would have to grow up a bit first. During which time the political aspect would be important.

Also, where are you getting this idea that the red comet associated with Aegon's conception was seen at HH?

[Ser Duncan the Small]

I think that's the show. I think Varys "hints" that it was Cersei in ACOK Tyrion II.

I am currently re-reading so I guess I'll find out shortly

[Ser Duncan the Small]

Either way--the point is basically the same whether it is Cersei or Joffrey.

True, just pointing out. Point is almost definitelt stronger if it was Joffrey. I guess it's not said outright in the books?

[Anath]

I see these facts entirely differently than you do. The reason that there were three KG at ToJ is simple--two were permanently assigned to Rhaegar and so they were with him when he took Lyanna. Hightower finds them much later. But once these three know where ToJ is located, Rhaegar cannot let them be back with Aerys until after the baby is born and they are ready to go back to KL. Aerys would ask them where Lyanna was located, and they would have to answer because they are KG and they cannot lie to the king. So Rhaegar had to keep these three at ToJ to keep the location secret.

As to his concern for Elia--she appeared to be safe in the Red Keep. Yes, there was only one KG, but there were many other guards and RK was virtually impregnable. Only the mistake of letting Tywin in allowed Elia and the children to be murdered. Rhaegar might have believed that by that point, leaving them in RK was safer than trying to smuggle them to Dragonstone given the state of the war at that time. It has nothing to do with preferring Elia over Lyanna. From an objective point of view, Elia seemed safer in RK than Lyanna at ToJ.

He did not have to take them to the Red Keep. They could just as easily take his orders from him from anywhere at KL. Aerys wasn't going to leave the castle to seek for them, would he? Rhaegar could have easily taken them at the Trident and leave, let's say, Darry in KL.

As to your second point, I believe we have already had this conversation. I am not going to repeat it.

Rhaegar could have just as easily let them there because he wanted to use them as hostages against Dorne. If he realized that Aegon was not the PWWP and they were not even heads of the dragon, their only value to him would be sentimental - and we know that the prophecy was the most important thing in his mind. And I see nothing supporting your scenario that he realized he had gotten the prince wrong but still believed Aegon and Rhaenys were heads of the dragon.

[BearQueen87]

So, your argument is that Rhaegar was smart enough to realize that he needed a son with Lyanna, but that he didn't use any of this brainpower to consider the potential ramifications of starting another branch of heirs? Sure, prophecy was more important to him, but it's not like his team of toddlers were going to save the world. They would have to grow up a bit first. During which time the political aspect would be important.

Also, where are you getting this idea that the red comet associated with Aegon's conception was seen at HH?

Not that the red comet was seen at HH but rather in Rhaegar's mind it ended up heralding something besides conceiving Aegon. Namely that he either would soon meet, or had just met (depending on when the comet was seen in KL) Lyanna, the woman who would give him TPTWP

[UnmaskedLurker]

So, your argument is that Rhaegar was smart enough to realize that he needed a son with Lyanna, but that he didn't use any of this brainpower to consider the potential ramifications of starting another branch of heirs? Sure, prophecy was more important to him, but it's not like his team of toddlers were going to save the world. They would have to grow up a bit first. During which time the political aspect would be important.

Also, where are you getting this idea that the red comet associated with Aegon's conception was seen at HH?

What I am saying is that he focused most of his attention on the prophesy and not politics. And I tend to agree with BQ87 that he tried the best he could to resolve the politics with Elia before leaving. I think he thought that he and Elia and Lyanna--working together--could raise them to be "Team Dragon"--saviors of the world. Might he have been wrong--who cares, it never came to pass that way as they mostly all died (except Jon) so it is basically irrelevant from a story point of view whether Rhaegar could have pulled this off. But if we are talking about Rhaegar's thoughts and motivations, I think it is clear that he would prioritize the prophesy and try his best to minimize the political problems. He might have thought that by seeing the past political problems, he could do something different (like raise them together as a united family) that would lead to a different outcome.

As to the whole red comet thing--I think I may be confused. Rhaenys_Targaryen in post # 126 makes this point and I was just following up assuming it to be true, but I admit I might be confused. I thought something was seen at HH around the time Aegon was conceived. Was there, and if so, what was it?

[J. Stargaryen]

What I am saying is that he focused most of his attention on the prophesy and not politics. And I tend to agree with BQ87 that he tried the best he could to resolve the politics with Elia before leaving. I think he thought that he and Elia and Lyanna--working together--could raise them to be "Team Dragon"--saviors of the world. Might he have been wrong--who cares, it never came to pass that way as they mostly all died (except Jon) so it is basically irrelevant from a story point of view whether Rhaegar could have pulled this off. But if we are talking about Rhaegar's thoughts and motivations, I think it is clear that he would prioritize the prophesy and try his best to minimize the political problems. He might have thought that by seeing the past political problems, he could do something different (like raise them together as a united family) that would lead to a different outcome.

Which is exactly what I'm proposing.

As to the whole red comet thing--I think I may be confused. Rhaenys_Targaryen in post # 126 makes this point and I was just following up assuming it to be true, but I admit I might be confused. I thought something was seen at HH around the time Aegon was conceived. Was there, and if so, what was it?

“On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo’s talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. “No one ever looked for a girl,” he said. “It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise!”

- AFfC, Samwell IV

[UnmaskedLurker]

[snip]

Thank you very much for finding the exact quote--sorry about my confusion. My main point remains to RT (and perhaps to you) that the prophesy does not say that the bleeding star would be on the day of conception--just that it would herald the coming of TPTWP. Just as the smoke and tears (fire at SH and tears for the dead), which seemed to be clear indications of Rhaegar as TPTWP did not stop Rhaegar from changing his view to Aegon--comet on day of conception would not prevent Rhaegar from changing his view to Jon. The comet still could herald in the coming of Jon, who still would be born only a couple of years after the comet. And Jon would be the union of ice and fire--not Aegon.

[BearQueen87]

Which is exactly what I'm proposing.

If Rhaegar has a son with L, as I think he was expecting, does that solve his political problems? Does he marry the baby boy to Rhaenys? Then you have his son and his daughter married, but baby boy Jon still isn't the heir, Aegon is. I don't know if that would make the political situation better or worse.

[UnmaskedLurker]

If Rhaegar has a son with L, as I think he was expecting, does that solve his political problems? Does he marry the baby boy to Rhaenys? Then you have his son and his daughter married, but baby boy Jon still isn't the heir, Aegon is. I don't know if that would make the political situation better or worse.

Probably worse, as Jon would now be married to the eldest child. But I think Rhaegar would be a fan of letting his children marry for love and not arrange a marriage at all--the troubled marriages can be arranged marriages even without any incest. Rhaegar ultimately chose for love--I would expect he would want the same for his children.

[BearQueen87]

Probably worse, as Jon would now be married to the eldest child. But I think Rhaegar would be a fan of letting his children marry for love and not arrange a marriage at all--the troubled marriages can be arranged marriages even without any incest. Rhaegar ultimately chose for love--I would expect he would want the same for his children.

I agree (oh shock). I think Rhaegar has a romantic streak in him, coupled with seeing his own mother's misery at being forced into an incestuous and unwanted relationship, to me indicates that he would balk at marrying his two children together.

[J. Stargaryen]

Thank you very much for finding the exact quote--sorry about my confusion. My main point remains to RT (and perhaps to you) that the prophesy does not say that the bleeding star would be on the day of conception--just that it would herald the coming of TPTWP. Just as the smoke and tears (fire at SH and tears for the dead), which seemed to be clear indications of Rhaegar as TPTWP did not stop Rhaegar from changing his view to Aegon--comet on day of conception would not prevent Rhaegar from changing his view to Jon. The comet still could herald in the coming of Jon, who still would be born only a couple of years after the comet. And Jon would be the union of ice and fire--not Aegon.

So, you're now arguing that Rhaegar would or might have taken a comet seen two years beforehand, on the night of Aegon's conception, to herald Jon's birth? Really?

If Rhaegar has a son with L, as I think he was expecting, does that solve his political problems? Does he marry the baby boy to Rhaenys? Then you have his son and his daughter married, but baby boy Jon still isn't the heir, Aegon is. I don't know if that would make the political situation better or worse.

Potentially worse. Both Dorne and the North could conceivably push for Rhaenys + Jon to rule. But I never said that Rhaegar would wed a boy to Rhaenys. The point was to (eventually) have a girl by Lyanna for Aegon to marry.

This argument that Rhaegar was expecting a boy is based on what exactly?

[BearQueen87]

So, you're now arguing that Rhaegar would or might have taken a comet seen two years beforehand, on the night of Aegon's conception, to herald Jon's birth? Really?

Not until after he learns that Elia can't have more children. Then things about the prophecy he thought he knew begin to get reexamined and reinterpreted.

This argument that Rhaegar was expecting a boy is based on what exactly?

That R changed his mind about Aegon being TPTWP and that Lyanna was the ice to his fire, thus creating TPTWP

[J. Stargaryen]

Not until after he learns that Elia can't have more children. Then things about the prophecy he thought he knew begin to get reexamined and reinterpreted.

That R changed his mind about Aegon being TPTWP and that Lyanna was the ice to his fire, thus creating TPTWP

Again, what is this based on? You know what this looks like to me? A house of cards.

Also, this idea that Rhaegar definitely realized that he was fire and Lyanna was ice is somewhat dubious, imo. He didn't seem to think anything like that was the case when he named Aegon the PtwP and SoIaF. Maybe that interpretation was not for Rhaegar to make, but for the audience. It's possible that, as an in-story character, Rhaegar never made the symbolic connection. That in story, the SoIaF means something else, like a battle or war. And that there are other, symbolic interpretations for the readers to apply.

Back to the first part, but I think that argument comes off as extremely desperate looking. The comet was seen the night Aegon was conceived. Jon would not be born for ~2 years. Knowing that we saw a red comet right before the pyre in AGoT, I'm wondering if it doesn't indicate who the heads of the dragon are. If that's true, I don't think we've seen Jon's comet yet.