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Ukraine 12: All Russia wants is a little "Жилая площадь"


Ser Scot A Ellison

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And Finland, Sweden, and Georgia (and Australia and Jordan) get a "gold card" from NATO which should give "enhanced opportunities for cooperation", whatever that means. Apparently it doesn't really mean anything since it's going to be determined individually for every country, but it's something separate from the host nation treaties with Sweden and Finland that were finalised a couple of days ago.



Just a Swedish link, sorry: http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/annu-ett-beslut-om-fordjupat-samarbete-mellan-nato-och-sverige_3875180.svd


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After the cold war western intelligence gutted their Russian speaking operatives. By the turn of the century Russia was seen as an unimportant backwater mired in economic corruption. Time and again the administration has completely misjudged Putin, from Syria to the Crimea, they thought he would jump back instead he's stepped up and delivered a roundhouse to the face. That suggests to me that they've been acting on very bad intelligence, but hey I could be wrong maybe the decision makers in the WH are just plain dumb and ignore good advise.

I wouldn't use anywhere near the extreme language you are using here. At worst they underestimated how far Putin was willing to push this thing to save face and maintain Russian power.

And even that is somewhat questionable since it's highly debatable if the West and the US specifically had any other realistic options anyway. You say "they thought he'd jump back" and I don't see it because whether or not they thought he'd jump back, they'd just do and say the same shit. Because that's the game Russia is playing in the Ukraine. They don't show any concerns for their losses so their response will be the same regardless of whether you push back or not. So you might as well push.

In Syria this description of your makes zero sense. It wasn't Russia that set any plans the Obama Admin might have had on hold, it was a lack of domestic support.

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Analysing this conflict has lead me to one of the following conclusions; Russia has learned a lot about the West's weakness and has used it to it's full extent.



After the Iraq war there was a big rise in pacifism and diplomacy. USA's reputation of "Team world police" has been cemented and the west has been painted "hypocritical" and a lot of people ask themselves what did we do it all for? ISIS is far worse than Saddam. This pacifism movement has been hijacked by various businesses and entrepreneurs, as for them war is bad, they want to have a steady political situation (especially with dubious countries) to continue their ways. So it all comes down to this; when ever there is a conflict they will exert pressure on diplomats with; Aren't the rebels/opposition even worse than the current government? we shouldn't intervene, the next government will be even worse remember the such and such case? then there is the western media who are sometimes under control of these figures and those who are not, but even they help these figures by trying to objective they will often use words like "claims/says/according/seems" this creates a wall of uncertainty. Now combine this with the short attention span of the general public, whom will lose interest in a certain story after 3 months, it is an ideal climate for the average pragmatic businessmen.



Russia knows this and all their current tactics reflect this; the press keeps saying "separatists/rebels/pro-russians" instead of "terrorists/Russian militias/ Russian soldiers" making everything vague and so make the west doubt "we should not attack, remember Iraq? USA claimed they had chemical weapons and worse but that was not true" and playing in on these pragmatic businessmen who hence became now known as the "Putin Versteher" with favourable deals and keep spamming how the Ukrainian government are made out of nazis and that Ukraine joining the EU would damage Russia's economy and the NATO is a serious threat for Russia. Russia is also helped by the lack of reporting of Russia in general in the west, people have long since forgotten conflicts such as the Georgia war, Transistria separtisim, Chechenya wars and other general meddling such as the Armenia - Azerbaijan war, people remember Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo and Vietnam. The Donbas is also a region rife with corruption and crime which the Kremlin itself indulges in, but once again you don't hear that too often in media here. The police and some local diplomats/entrepreneurs help the "Donetsk People's republic" because they already had close ties with the criminal underworld of Russia and with a truckload of money they will gladly help, especially after the government in Kiev announced anti-corruption measures. Then there is the massive propaganda by the Kremlin ( which I happened to see a lot of as I study Russian) this is very effective because of the political vacuum in the Donbas and a lot of Eastern Ukrainians/Russians get most of their news from Russian TV and not from Ukrainian TV or the internet and of course most of them don't frequent western sources. This also helps to create a picture that the local law enforcement and leaders have sided with "the people" aided further by the fact that thugs beat down any pro-Ukrainians that dare to show their face in public so all you see are cheering "pro-Russians". Russia also plays in on the sort attentionspan of the west by doing this gradually; send a small bit of armor across the border with soldiers and then don't.. give the Ukrainian army a taste of some artillery barrage and then don't..... so in short Russia inches closers to the cookie jar each time the west takes a toilet break. A lot of these things have been planned to a certain degree, Putin didn't like the Orange revolution and knew he had to have a plan B; already started indoctrinating some people of the Donbas, start to question Ukraine statehood on live TV, be quite aggressive about the status of Crimea. The propaganda campaign is also much larger then some people realise; they create fake "pro-Ukrainian" website that detail about heavy losses on the east front and low morale or send fake messages to people in west Ukraine about how bad things are for them in the east etc.



Not all of it is effective of course as the downing of the civilian airliner being the hammer to shatter the wall of uncertainty and creating a front against the Kremlin and the earlier build up of sanctions. The propaganda - while it is effective in the former USSR sphere - has been worthless in the west as Russia's approval ratings have been in freefall ever since but the Kremlin decides to throw an other bag of money at it a while and see if it works, so far it only works on the simple minded dolts who considered USA/EU pure evil from the get go and follow the "the grass is greener on the other side" dream.

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No, it's not. As I already pointed out and you keep avoiding so you can repeat your point ad nauseum.

You can't make your statement not contradict that facts as they exist now just by repeating it over and over again.

Yes it is. Russia is reacting to perceived threats to its national interests. Once these disputes are resolve they're going to want to return to business as usual. They don't want a Cold War. Few do. No doubt it will be difficult to normalize relations but its the only sensible solution going forward.

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Yes it is. Russia is reacting to perceived threats to its national interests. Once these disputes are resolve they're going to want to return to business as usual. They don't want a Cold War. Few do. No doubt it will be difficult to normalize relations but its the only sensible solution going forward.

But they want to push regional hegemony MORE. This is a demonstratible fact as it's what's happening right now. It's what this thread is about and you keep ignoring it.

Russia is not interested in what qualifies as "business as usual" for the past while because that "business as usual" is exactly what created this perceived threat to their national interests in the first place. They are explicitly interested in changing what qualifies as business as usual so that it does not include a lessening of Russian power.

And they are willing to sacrifice economic growth to achieve that and there's no reason to think that will change once this is over. So unless the West completely backs down, you are still gonna see Russian economic interests being sacrificed to achieve other political goals.

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Yes it is. Russia is reacting to perceived threats to its national interests. Once these disputes are resolve they're going to want to return to business as usual. They don't want a Cold War. Few do. No doubt it will be difficult to normalize relations but its the only sensible solution going forward.

What is this threat? A threat of invasion? A threat to their sovereignty? Or is it not being able to control their neighbors?

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judging from my time hanging around with Russians and seeing their media; their ego.

Big ego? You know what, I can see that for the men.

Although the Russians I'm around are generally very nice people.

Which reminds me: My criticism is of the Russian leadership and not the Russian people. In case there are Russians in this thread; I don't want it to come across as Russian-bashing.

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Big ego? You know what, I can see that for the men.

Although the Russians I'm around are generally very nice people.

Which reminds me: My criticism is of the Russian leadership and not the Russian people. In case there are Russians in this thread; I don't want it to come across as Russian-bashing.

it is a collective thing. Russians haven't taken the loss of the Soviet Union well, in their minds the Soviet Union still exists and Russia is a big empire. This is also further strengthened by how awful the 90ties were for Russia, the "shocktherapy" period. A lot of Russians put the blame on America for this and they view Putin as their man to restore their prestige. Maybe you have read some news about how Russia keeps violating the airspace of several countries, this also plays into this, its just a childish game to remind said countries that Russia is still "strong". On Russian TV you can also see a lot of documentaries about the construction and display of military vehicles and "how easy they can destroy America". The men are noticeably more chauvinistic that's true.

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Snake,

If I'm right and fhe Russian's start targeting ICBM's at NATO cities or military positions will you maintain your position?

I'm probably just misunderstanding your post, but you're saying that Russia will randomly start nuking NATO countries? Why?

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it is a collective thing. Russians haven't taken the loss of the Soviet Union well, in their minds the Soviet Union still exists and Russia is a big empire. This is also further strengthened by how awful the 90ties were for Russia, the "shocktherapy" period. A lot of Russians put the blame on America for this and they view Putin as their man to restore their prestige. Maybe you have read some news about how Russia keeps violating the airspace of several countries, this also plays into this, its just a childish game to remind said countries that Russia is still "strong". On Russian TV you can also see a lot of documentaries about the construction and display of military vehicles and "how easy they can destroy America". The men are noticeably more chauvinistic that's true.

Ego might carry some implications people are uncomfortable with but a rise in nationalism and national pride as a counter to domestic problems is incredibly common.

Russia isn't the best page to live and the country has been taking blows to it's power and prestige for a few decades now. This can be characterized as a that to Russian pride that engenders a rise in nationalism and chest-thumping as a response.

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it is a collective thing. Russians haven't taken the loss of the Soviet Union well, in their minds the Soviet Union still exists and Russia is a big empire. This is also further strengthened by how awful the 90ties were for Russia, the "shocktherapy" period. A lot of Russians put the blame on America for this and they view Putin as their man to restore their prestige. Maybe you have read some news about how Russia keeps violating the airspace of several countries, this also plays into this, its just a childish game to remind said countries that Russia is still "strong". On Russian TV you can also see a lot of documentaries about the construction and display of military vehicles and "how easy they can destroy America". The men are noticeably more chauvinistic that's true.

Interesting. It's almost like to hanging on to their glory days. Except in this case, they believe they believe it to be true. Is this in the U.S. or a different country?

Also, I don't think Ser Scott means attacking.

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Ego might carry some implications people are uncomfortable with but a rise in nationalism and national pride as a counter to domestic problems is incredibly common.

Russia isn't the best page to live and the country has been taking blows to it's power and prestige for a few decades now. This can be characterized as a that to Russian pride that engenders a rise in nationalism and chest-thumping as a response.

Yep and its very common in Russia. They should brace themselves, as a second collapse(maybe even bigger than the one in 90ties) is coming.

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