What was Olenna's plan for Sansa?

[John Suburbs]

No, that doesn't fit Littlefinger's MO, because there's no reason for Sansa to wear the hairnet unless you expect her to be caught with it (which is what the Tyrells, but not Littlefinger, thought would happen).

Sorry, but you are engaging in exactly the kind of thinking that plagues the police when investigating a crime: they establish a working theory and then gather any and all evidence that supports the theory, rejecting anything that doesn't fit.

As with the Kettleblacks, putting the pieces in place even if you don't know how it will work out is exactly LF's MO. Did he know that accusing Tyrion of Bran's attempted murder would lead to Catelyn meeting him on the road and taking him to the Vale? Did he know that Tywin would call his banners and start a war? When he left for Bitterbridge after Renley's death, did he know the Tyrells would agree to an alliance? a wedding?

Only a fool waits to take action when everything is in perfect order, and LF is no fool.

And exactly how is anyone going to connect the hairnet with the poison even if Sansa does not escape? Is Lady O going to piece it all together for Cersei right there in the throne room? That wouldn't look suspicious at all.

That's clearly not true. Free of concerns about framing her while still present, the smartest and most logical thing is for the poison to be given and retained by the person who will use it. The hairnet is an unnecessary additional step, one that introduces numerous potential complications, unless your goal is to frame Sansa with it. The hairnet does not provide "cover for her escape".

The poison has already been delivered to Sansa and the only way for LF to get it back is to have Ser D ask for the hairnet back. But since he's already told her that the hairnet is the key to her salvation, she would lose all faith in him if he did that. So the hairnet has to stay with Sansa and she has to bring it to the wedding or the plan is bust. The Strangler is extremely rare and extremely valuable, so it is unlikely at best that LF has piles of it to hand around.

To LF, the poisoner is irrelevant. Anyone could be trained to palm it and deploy it. But Sansa and the poison must stay together or the plan is bust.

Yes, it is a vital plot detail, because it's a major plot in the book, with numerous elements and explanatory details included. GRRM is not going to go to all that work to include stuff, and then completely revise it (which is very different from casual answers about backstory or customs, or more detailed backstory about the far past that has nevertheless not actually been employed in the novels.

Exactly how does any of this affect any of the plotlines from here? No matter who did what or how it was planned, the story continues. So these are all minor details that have no relevance to anyone or anything going forward.

[Tysha's New Man]

I happen to agree that Olenna wanted Sansa for her eldest grandson Willas even after Tywin had Tyrion marry her. I'm not sure where the Tyrells would have kept Sansa so they're not found with a suspect to the king's death but they were going to keep her as a honored "guest." Great insurance policy for the Starks in case they were victorious and for controlling the North if they weren't victorious.

I strongly believe Olenna set up Tyrion for several reasons. The hatred he had for Joffrey was well known, he stole the "key to the north" from them and it would ultimately be a huge embarrassment for House Lannister. One thing that isn't mentioned enough is Tywin's line will essentially end and House Lannister will eventually be controlled by someone more reasonable (like Daven).

As for LF, I believe he will marry Sansa to Harry the heir. Once Robert Arryn is disposed of, another one of LF's schemes (too long to explain here), it will bring the Vale back into the fold. LF knows they should've fought for Robb but were hesistant because of Lysa. Now that someone like Harry is in charge with a Stark wife, it will bring about 30-40 thousand against the Lannisters with the Tyrell alliance in shambles.

Do you guys think Olenna or any of the Tyrells will have some plan for vengeance against LF for stealing Sansa away?

[Colonel Green]

Sorry, but you are engaging in exactly the kind of thinking that plagues the police when investigating a crime: they establish a working theory and then gather any and all evidence that supports the theory, rejecting anything that doesn't fit.

No, I'm quite willing to consider alternative arguments. The overwhelming weight of evidence supports this theory. Every new detail GRRM gives fits neatly into place. Your theories all hinge on your conviction that Tyrion was the one being poisoned, which does not fit the evidence.

As with the Kettleblacks, putting the pieces in place even if you don't know how it will work out is exactly LF's MO. Did he know that accusing Tyrion of Bran's attempted murder would lead to Catelyn meeting him on the road and taking him to the Vale? Did he know that Tywin would call his banners and start a war? When he left for Bitterbridge after Renley's death, did he know the Tyrells would agree to an alliance? a wedding?

Only a fool waits to take action when everything is in perfect order, and LF is no fool.

You're comparing completely different things. Generalized actions taken to foment disorder, like accusing Tyrion of murder (which serves a very specific purpose of pitting the Starks against the Lannisters, which is his whole design; he certainly wasn't thinking that Catelyn would meet Tyrion), are not the same thing as the hairnet. Your comparison to the Kettleblacks is apt. Having three special agents around Cersei is prima facie useful, for any number of potential purposes. Giving Sansa the hairnet is not. It's completely useless if your intent isn't to frame her, which was never Littlefinger's intent, hence its being in place being for the Tyrells' benefit (note, as well, that Sansa doesn't get it until after the Tyrells arrive in the city, indicating when the plan was put into motion).

The poison has already been delivered to Sansa and the only way for LF to get it back is to have Ser D ask for the hairnet back. But since he's already told her that the hairnet is the key to her salvation, she would lose all faith in him if he did that. So the hairnet has to stay with Sansa and she has to bring it to the wedding or the plan is bust. The Strangler is extremely rare and extremely valuable, so it is unlikely at best that LF has piles of it to hand around.

Which presupposes that Littlefinger would give Sansa the poison with no plan for what it was for, which is blatantly illogical. If the poison is rare, he would retain it for a specific use.

Exactly how does any of this affect any of the plotlines from here? No matter who did what or how it was planned, the story continues. So these are all minor details that have no relevance to anyone or anything going forward.

So, are you arguing that your conspiracy theories are what actually happened, or that GRRM might change his mind and say that's what happened? And why would he do that, if it's not relevant?

To LF, the poisoner is irrelevant. Anyone could be trained to palm it and deploy it. But Sansa and the poison must stay together or the plan is bust.

What plan? There is no reason for Sansa to have the hairnet except if the purpose is to frame her (again, not Littlefinger's intention) or to reassure another party that is/thinks it is in on the whole scheme that they have a fall-guy in place (the Tyrells).

[Lady Blizzardborn]

<snip

What plan? There is no reason for Sansa to have the hairnet except if the purpose is to frame her (again, not Littlefinger's intention) or to reassure another party that is/thinks it is in on the whole scheme that they have a fall-guy in place (the Tyrells).

Actually there is. Precisely because the hairnet could be used to frame Sansa, it forces her to rely on Littlefinger for protection, because he can honestly say she had no idea and was a pawn in the whole thing.

[John Suburbs]

No, I'm quite willing to consider alternative arguments. The overwhelming weight of evidence supports this theory. Every new detail GRRM gives fits neatly into place. Your theories all hinge on your conviction that Tyrion was the one being poisoned, which does not fit the evidence.

What overwhelming evidence? All I see is the insistence that it must have been a set-up job. Show me some evidence please. There is more than ample evidence that the poison was in the pie, starting with the fact that Joffrey drank the wine but showed no sign of poisoning until he ate the pie.

You're comparing completely different things. Generalized actions taken to foment disorder, like accusing Tyrion of murder (which serves a very specific purpose of pitting the Starks against the Lannisters, which is his whole design; he certainly wasn't thinking that Catelyn would meet Tyrion), are not the same thing as the hairnet. Your comparison to the Kettleblacks is apt. Having three special agents around Cersei is prima facie useful, for any number of potential purposes. Giving Sansa the hairnet is not. It's completely useless if your intent isn't to frame her, which was never Littlefinger's intent, hence its being in place being for the Tyrells' benefit (note, as well, that Sansa doesn't get it until after the Tyrells arrive in the city, indicating when the plan was put into motion).

This is all part of the same MO. Put things in place, set things in motion even if the details and the end results are not entirely clear.

Which presupposes that Littlefinger would give Sansa the poison with no plan for what it was for, which is blatantly illogical. If the poison is rare, he would retain it for a specific use.

The plan was to have Sansa and the poison in the same place at the same time in order to provide cover for her escape at the wedding. That was the specific purpose. All he needed was the poisoner, which presented itself in the form of Lady O after the RW and Sansa's marriage to Tyrion.

So, are you arguing that your conspiracy theories are what actually happened, or that GRRM might change his mind and say that's what happened? And why would he do that, if it's not relevant?

I'm saying that the way things stand, it does not matter to the story going forward who did what or what the plan was. So whatever ambiguous language that appears in an SSM can either be glossed over or outright retracted if GRRM decides to fill in any of the PW backstory later in the series. So trying to use an SSM to explain anything in the books is pointless.

What plan? There is no reason for Sansa to have the hairnet except if the purpose is to frame her (again, not Littlefinger's intention) or to reassure another party that is/thinks it is in on the whole scheme that they have a fall-guy in place (the Tyrells).

What plan? The plan to kill someone at the wedding and scuttle Sansa out of the Red Keep. It is simply ludicrous to think that way back at Bitterbridge when LF and LO were working out the details of the Lannister alliance that they were also plotting to kill the king. They barely knew each other at that point. How could they trust each other with such a plot? Why would LF trust the poison to Lady O when she could easily use only half on Joffrey and then reserve the other half for someone else, maybe even LF himself? Or turn it over to the Lannisters and rat him out if the situation changes. In the hairnet, he has it in a safe place that only he knows about and can be easily transferred to the poisoner at the time it is to be deployed.

And again, I ask how the hairnet is supposed to implicate Sansa? Who is going to stand up after the fact and say "AHA, a missing gemstone! Obviously it was the poison!" Do you think that is likely to fool a smart cookie like Tywin Lannister?

[bent branch]

To marry her to Willas, that is all.

[Colonel Green]

Actually there is. Precisely because the hairnet could be used to frame Sansa, it forces her to rely on Littlefinger for protection, because he can honestly say she had no idea and was a pawn in the whole thing.

That really doesn't make sense, though. Sansa is already implicated by fleeing. If she's caught, she won't be subject to a court with rigourous trial standards; it will be the Lannisters. Moreover, if she's caught, that means Littlefinger is caught as well -- why would she ever rely on the idea that he would try to protect her if they were caught, and even if he did, why would anyone believe him? Much as the case with the Tyrion/Sansa connection at trial, it's simply far more plausible that she was in on it (and she was, in a way, since she was planning to escape and wore the hairnet, even if she didn't know what it would do). It's highly dubious that this would exonerate her in a modern court; it absolutely would not in a Lannister court.

This is all part of the same MO. Put things in place, set things in motion even if the details and the end results are not entirely clear.

That only applies to actions that actually further a goal. Giving Sansa the poison serves no purpose other than as a frame. Your argument could support the inference that the poison was brought to the Red Keep without a target, but not that it was given to Sansa.

The plan was to have Sansa and the poison in the same place at the same time in order to provide cover for her escape at the wedding. That was the specific purpose. All he needed was the poisoner, which presented itself in the form of Lady O after the RW and Sansa's marriage to Tyrion.

...

In the hairnet, he has it in a safe place that only he knows about and can be easily transferred to the poisoner at the time it is to be deployed.

The hairnet isn't a "safe place", as Dontos also knows about, among others. It's safer to leave it with Dontos until it needs to be used, not to give it to someone who isn't in on the plan and has no idea what it is. At no point does having Sansa and the poison in the same place require that Sansa herself wear it, since the scheme hinges 100% on the presence of a third co-conspirator who will then retrieve and use the poison. As long as that is the case, it is simpler and safer to simply give the poison to them directly.

And again, I ask how the hairnet is supposed to implicate Sansa? Who is going to stand up after the fact and say "AHA, a missing gemstone! Obviously it was the poison!" Do you think that is likely to fool a smart cookie like Tywin Lannister?

I don't know how it would have worked. Since it didn't happen, we'll never know. But that's GRRM's explanation (an explanation, incidentally, that is not directly in the text, so it's not him simply parrotting what's already there to keep some secret twist that you imagine is just around the corner; he's clarifying an aspect of the plot, one that a lot of people, myself included, had been wondering about).

[John Suburbs]

That really doesn't make sense, though. Sansa is already implicated by fleeing. If she's caught, she won't be subject to a court with rigourous trial standards; it will be the Lannisters. Moreover, if she's caught, that means Littlefinger is caught as well -- why would she ever rely on the idea that he would try to protect her if they were caught, and even if he did, why would anyone believe him? Much as the case with the Tyrion/Sansa connection at trial, it's simply far more plausible that she was in on it (and she was, in a way, since she was planning to escape and wore the hairnet, even if she didn't know what it would do). It's highly dubious that this would exonerate her in a modern court; it absolutely would not in a Lannister court.

I think what she is saying is that, after her escape and she is safe in the Vale, LF can use the hairnet as leverage against her if she tries to defy him. Sure, she would rat him out if he turned her in, but Sansa would be too frightened of losing her own head to betray him.

That only applies to actions that actually further a goal. Giving Sansa the poison serves no purpose other than as a frame. Your argument could support the inference that the poison was brought to the Red Keep without a target, but not that it was given to Sansa.

Saying the same thing over and over again does not make it true. Giving Sansa the poison without her knowing about it puts the two key elements together with very little risk of losing probably the one and only crystal that LF has. Giving it to anyone else runs the risk of being double-crossed.

The hairnet isn't a "safe place", as Dontos also knows about, among others. It's safer to leave it with Dontos until it needs to be used, not to give it to someone who isn't in on the plan and has no idea what it is. At no point does having Sansa and the poison in the same place require that Sansa herself wear it, since the scheme hinges 100% on the presence of a third co-conspirator who will then retrieve and use the poison. As long as that is the case, it is simpler and safer to simply give the poison to them directly.

Dontos? Really? Drunken, stumbling Dontos? The same Dontos that LF executes after the fact because he is not trustworthy? And we all saw how easy it was for Lady O to palm the crystal, so that presented no problem at all. Sure, simpler and safer to just let Lady O have it, but Sansa already had the hairnet and there was no way for LF to get it back. LF gave her the hairnet right after the Blackwater. Are you saying it was his intention to frame her right from the beginning? Why go through all that trouble to save her then?

I don't know how it would have worked. Since it didn't happen, we'll never know. But that's GRRM's explanation (an explanation, incidentally, that is not directly in the text, so it's not him simply parrotting what's already there to keep some secret twist that you imagine is just around the corner; he's clarifying an aspect of the plot, one that a lot of people, myself included, had been wondering about).

That is GRRM's explanation of "what the careful reader" might conclude from having read the book, but he is by no means saying that this is the actual truth.

Let's project the likely course of events from Lady O's point of view following the discovery of the hairnet: Sansa is taken into custody and questioned. Tywin Lannister is not about to believe that little Sansa acted alone in this, so he wants to know who her co-conspirators are and he would be wiling to gouge an eye out with a hot poker to find out. The only name Sansa can give up is Dontos, who by now is probably already dead.

Then Tywin will ask: who else handled the hairnet? And Sansa would say my handmaiden, Shae, put it on me this afternoon. (and wouldn't that be an interesting development for Tywin). Either way, they bring in Shae and she has plausible deniability because Sansa wanted the hairnet and it was Shae's job to put it on.

Then Tywin asks, anybody else? Oh, yes, Sansa recalls, Lady Olenna adjusted it just before the feast. Oh, did she now? says Tywin. Now it's Lady O's turn to face the questioning. Could she hold out? Probably, but she isn't getting away with clean hands.

And BTW, implicating Sansa with the hairnet all but removes Tyrion as a suspect because he could never reach it. Cersei would accuse him of being the mastermind, of course, but Sansa would simply tell the truth and say he had nothing to do with it.

[Colonel Green]

I think what she is saying is that, after her escape and she is safe in the Vale, LF can use the hairnet as leverage against her if she tries to defy him. Sure, she would rat him out if he turned her in, but Sansa would be too frightened of losing her own head to betray him.

The hairnet is zero leverage. Littlefinger threatening to turn Sansa in is a pretty obvious MAD scenario, with or without the hairnet.

Saying the same thing over and over again does not make it true. Giving Sansa the poison without her knowing about it puts the two key elements together with very little risk of losing probably the one and only crystal that LF has. Giving it to anyone else runs the risk of being double-crossed.

Dontos? Really? Drunken, stumbling Dontos? The same Dontos that LF executes after the fact because he is not trustworthy?

The same Dontos to whom he gave the poison already. Do you recall that? Moreover, trusting Dontos with the poison is no different than trusting him with any other aspect of the plan, and much easier than most, in fact. All he has to do is not lose it. Several of his other jobs, such as the clandestine meetings and the actual escape, are far more difficult, and yet he was trusted with those.

LF gave her the hairnet right after the Blackwater. Are you saying it was his intention to frame her right from the beginning? Why go through all that trouble to save her then?

Er, no, that's a rather serious misreading of the text. LF had Dontos give her the hairnet because his plan was already in place, with it being part of the Tyrells' view of the plan. He never intended to frame her, only to lead the Tyrells to think she would be.

And BTW, implicating Sansa with the hairnet all but removes Tyrion as a suspect because he could never reach it.

The Tyrells never intended to frame Tyrion (indeed, in the initial version, he'd have been nowhere near Sansa and not suspected of any involvement).

[Lion Of The Night]

Why would the Tyrells wish to spare Tyrion, who does absolutely nothing for them, and get rid of Sansa, the key to the north?

There is no sense in that.

And you would have to be a complete idiot to think that with their relationship they way it was, Tyrion would not be implicated. He could have been in a different city and still Cersei would at least suspect him.

[John Suburbs]

The hairnet is zero leverage. Littlefinger threatening to turn Sansa in is a pretty obvious MAD scenario, with or without the hairnet.

The hairnet is the evidence LF would use to threaten to expose Sansa's role in the murder. Without it, even Sansa might have the gumption to simply deny the accusation. If the hairnet gives LF zero leverage to frame Sansa, how does it provide leverage for the Tyrells?

The same Dontos to whom he gave the poison already. Do you recall that? Moreover, trusting Dontos with the poison is no different than trusting him with any other aspect of the plan, and much easier than most, in fact. All he has to do is not lose it. Several of his other jobs, such as the clandestine meetings and the actual escape, are far more difficult, and yet he was trusted with those.

Giving the hairnet to Dontos with strict instructions to bring it directly to Sansa is a whole lot different than having him to hold it for three months while the wedding draws near. His meetings with Sansa and even his role in getting her out of the castle were probably monitored so that if anything went wrong, LF could be notified immediately or the two of them could be offed before capture. With Sansa not knowing she even has the poison, just instructions to wear the hairnet if she wants to escape, LF has the perfect place to stash the poison where no one knows about it and as near a rock-solid guarantee as possible that both it and Sansa will be at the crucial place at the crucial time. Plus, if anyone were to come across the hairnet in Dontos' possession, it would look very weird.

Er, no, that's a rather serious misreading of the text. LF had Dontos give her the hairnet because his plan was already in place, with it being part of the Tyrells' view of the plan. He never intended to frame her, only to lead the Tyrells to think she would be.

You're saying that by the time of the Blackwater, LF and Lady O, who barely knew each other and had met to form a hurry-up alliance after Renley's death, trusted each other to the point of killing the king? Nonsense. All LF needed at the time of the BW in order to deliver the hairnet to Sansa was the idea that someone had to die at the wedding to cause enough confusion to cover her escape. The Tyrells didn't need to be involved until after Bran and Rickon's 'deaths' and the RW. If they had already committed to murdering Joffrey, why bother peppering Sansa about his nature? It should be irrelevant to them at this point. Show me anything in the text, anything at all, that even hints that the Tyrells were in on the plot at the time Dontos delivered the hairnet.

The Tyrells never intended to frame Tyrion (indeed, in the initial version, he'd have been nowhere near Sansa and not suspected of any involvement).

And yet this seems to be the central point that you and others use to justify the poisoned wine theory: that LF and LO planned all along for Joffrey to die and Tyrion to be blamed.

And again, I return to my question: how on earth could the Tyrells cause the Lannisters to make the link between a tiny missing gem in a hairnet to the murder without themselves becoming suspects? The minute Tywin learns that Lady O was fiddling with the hairnet and then standing right behind Tyrion during the pie-cutting he will know of her guilt, even if he might not be able to prove it. And then after all this, Lady O expects Margy to simply marry Tommen?

Your theory requires that both Tywin and Lady O be abject fools -- more like Theon than savvy players of the game.

[unitron]

I'd think that either all the stones in the hairnet were actually strangler crystals, or else none of them were.

You can have Olenna popping any random one loose because no matter which one she gets, it's poison.

Or you can have her popping a random one loose because it doesn't matter which one she gets because the poison is already in her possession and all of the stones are just stones and she only has to create the illusion that one was poison disguised as a stone and now it's missing.

But if there's only one, you can't have her taking an inordinate amount of time being sure that she gets the right one, because then it no longer looks like she's just fixing Sansa's hair.

[John Suburbs]

Or you can give her an exact duplicate of the hairnet so she is aware of which stone is the poison, and can even practice removing it a few times.

[TheWitch]

Sansa almost certainly fitted into the plot past carrying the poison in.I suspect to marry Willas, and with a pardon from Marg Sansa would be free to marry. I understand that with Bolton rule being put into place by the Lannisters makes the situation tricky, but it could be easily resolved. The Tyrells need only say that Willas's and Sansa's child is half-Stark and their is a good chance the northern lord would will rally around him, and with enough Northern Lords and the Tyrell forces, the Boltons stand little to no chance of holding Winterfell.

With Ollenna I think the reason Sansa is part of the plot is 80% practicality and greed but 20% compassion. This may only be because Marg was in her ear begging to help Sansa, but I think a pat f Olenna really did want to help Sansa. As stupid as Olenna finds Sansa, maybe she feels pity for her situation sincere enough to make her act, and she understand like most women in high society how hard marriage is.

[unitron]

Or you can give her an exact duplicate of the hairnet so she is aware of which stone is the poison, and can even practice removing it a few times.

Are hairnets so asymmetrical that there's no chance Sansa puts it on turned 90 or 180 degrees?

[King of Vaes Tolorro]

"Its baby time! its Baby time! Its baby baby time!"

-Auralnauts, Revenge of the Middle Management.

Watch it!

[LordQorgyle]

I think they planed on blaming sansa.

1. No one could doubt she had a motive.

2. Her claim in the north is just on paper.

A. The boltons hold it now so it would have to be taken at great

expense to them. The cost of feeding and moving the army would be

outrageous plus to fight on unknown land and the other sides homeground

is stupid.

B. Without lady she has no real proof she is a stark and not someone

they dressed up to play her, and I doubt theon would tell and even if

he did no one would believe him after jeyne.

3. No one in the north is claiming for sansa, most have prolly forgotten

she exists. Yes there are some fighting for arya but thats a whole

different siruation. the choice of starving to death or fighting for

neds little girl.

4. She became spoiled goods when she married tyrion. Even if she proves

her madien head is intact all someone has to say is that tryion wasnt

big enough to break it. And as such no good to olena.

no once olena heard that sansa was to marry tryion she changed her long

term goals of having a greatgrandson in the reach and the north she just

found another way to use sansa. Off joff blame sansa and or tryion,

marry marg to tommen and work with a less insane king. Olena's playing

the long game. Its why I love her so much. She just didnt think sansa

would escape.and really she wouldnt have if it hadnt been for

littlefinger. Yikes does that mean LF is sansas knight in shining

armor?

Your point 2B is not quite intelligent since Sansa is almost an adult and is much more difficult to make someone pass as her

[LordQorgyle]

I happen to agree that Olenna wanted Sansa for her eldest grandson

Willas even after Tywin had Tyrion marry her. I'm not sure where the

Tyrells would have kept Sansa so they're not found with a suspect to the

king's death but they were going to keep her as a honored

"guest." Great insurance policy for the Starks in case they were

victorious and for controlling the North if they weren't victorious.

I strongly believe Olenna set up Tyrion for several reasons. The

hatred he had for Joffrey was well known, he stole the "key to the

north" from them and it would ultimately be a huge embarrassment for

House Lannister. One thing that isn't mentioned enough is Tywin's line

will essentially end and House Lannister will eventually be controlled

by someone more reasonable (like Daven).

As for LF, I believe he will marry Sansa to Harry the heir. Once Robert

Arryn is disposed of, another one of LF's schemes (too long to explain

here), it will bring the Vale back into the fold. LF knows they

should've fought for Robb but were hesistant because of Lysa. Now that

someone like Harry is in charge with a Stark wife, it will bring about

30-40 thousand against the Lannisters with the Tyrell alliance in

shambles.

Do you guys think Olenna or any of the Tyrells will have some plan for

vengeance against LF for stealing Sansa away?

Daven is not in line to be the heir of the Rock since you have the son and daughter of Kevan and all Genna's line alive

[Colonel Green]

Why would the Tyrells wish to spare Tyrion, who does absolutely nothing for them, and get rid of Sansa, the key to the north?

There is no sense in that.

And you would have to be a complete idiot to think that with their relationship they way it was, Tyrion would not be implicated. He could have been in a different city and still Cersei would at least suspect him.

The plan predates the Sansa/Tyrion marriage. The Tyrells didn't care about Tyrion, but obviously based on the marriage he was likely to be implicated if Sansa was caught.

The hairnet is the evidence LF would use to threaten to expose Sansa's role in the murder. Without it, even Sansa might have the gumption to simply deny the accusation. If the hairnet gives LF zero leverage to frame Sansa, how does it provide leverage for the Tyrells?

It provides the Tyrells leverage because the Tyrell scheme doesn't involve her escape. Littlefinger's does, and the escape supersedes any possible value of the hairnet, as it automatically incriminates her. As "having the gumption to simply deny the accusation", nobody would believe her, as I said. The Lannisters think she's guilty, and they run the court. Moreover, exposing Sansa would automatically expose Littlefinger too, so it's a completely empty threat, and even Sansa would know that.

Giving the hairnet to Dontos with strict instructions to bring it directly to Sansa is a whole lot different than having him to hold it for three months while the wedding draws near. His meetings with Sansa and even his role in getting her out of the castle were probably monitored so that if anything went wrong, LF could be notified immediately or the two of them could be offed before capture. With Sansa not knowing she even has the poison, just instructions to wear the hairnet if she wants to escape, LF has the perfect place to stash the poison where no one knows about it and as near a rock-solid guarantee as possible that both it and Sansa will be at the crucial place at the crucial time. Plus, if anyone were to come across the hairnet in Dontos' possession, it would look very weird.

Okay, now that you've conjured these completely-unmentioned monitors out of nowhere, why not leave the hairnet with them? Fact is, it makes no sense to relinquish control of the hairnet by giving it to Sansa without a clear idea of why you're doing that, and that motive can only involve the seeming frame, because it serves no other purpose.

You're saying that by the time of the Blackwater, LF and Lady O, who barely knew each other and had met to form a hurry-up alliance after Renley's death, trusted each other to the point of killing the king? Nonsense.

No, eminently logical. Why is it beyond the pale that they could have already formed the alliance then, as opposed to over the, what, few extra weeks in KL?

All LF needed at the time of the BW in order to deliver the hairnet to Sansa was the idea that someone had to die at the wedding to cause enough confusion to cover her escape. The Tyrells didn't need to be involved until after Bran and Rickon's 'deaths' and the RW. If they had already committed to murdering Joffrey, why bother peppering Sansa about his nature? It should be irrelevant to them at this point. Show me anything in the text, anything at all, that even hints that the Tyrells were in on the plot at the time Dontos delivered the hairnet.

Littlefinger was long gone from the city by the time of the wedding, and in no position to arrange new layers from a distance. Beyond that, the early introduction of the hairnet clearly supports the Tyrells' involvement, since its introduction coincides with the Tyrells and Littlefinger returning to the city, and, as already explained, the hairnet being given to Sansa serves no other purpose than the one it ultimately serves. The idea that the hairnet absolutely needs to be given to her for "safe keeping" is laughable.

And yet this seems to be the central point that you and others use to justify the poisoned wine theory: that LF and LO planned all along for Joffrey to die and Tyrion to be blamed.

No, Littlefinger intended for Joffrey to die by poisoned wine and Tyrion to be blamed (though the importance of that is ratcheted up considerably by their being married). Olenna's plan was for Joffrey to be thought to choke, with Sansa as a fallback (who, assuming the fallback plan wasn't used, would then marry Willas, which was scotched when Littlefinger leaked that development, as it interfered with a part of his plan that the Tyrells didn't know about, namely, Sansa's escape).

[Lion Of The Night]

How could the plan predate the Tyrion/Sansa wedding?

If the original plan worked out Sansa would be in Highgarden, married to Willis, and would never be in KL.

The hairnet (if it does have poison or not, there is still some doubt) was given to Sansa just in case they needed it. A girl of her stature would always be at court, so they now have something inside.

It was always part of the plan to get her out, if not by Lady O then by LF.