Petyr Baelish's support in the Vale

[Blackfish Tully]

Correction. Most people in the North and the Riverlands hate the Frey's. Again, the Frey's are related to the Royces and Anya Waynwood is raising a Frey girl. It's rather telling that one of the people in the Vale that actually likes the Starks, is raising one of the Frey kids.

Walder Frey's fourth wife was a Blackwood but that did not stop Hosten Frey from murdering Lucas Blackwood. Just because a Royce married Walder Frey decades ago is not going to stop Bronze Yohn from seeking revenge for Robb Stark. The Royce's are much tighter with the Starks then the Freys and Bronze Yohn wanted to join Robb and the fact that the Freys murdered him in violation of guest rights has to drive him crazy.

[Lord Lannister]

^Who knows. There might be a Great Vale Conspiracy going on. I have a feeling that the Royces know Sansa's there. I see the Vale Lords being much like the Northern Lords, and I can't see them being bribed into betraying the Starks for the most part.

This is an interesting thought. The biggest fallacy in Littlefinger's plan is his parading Alayne around as his niece. Between the Arryn family connection to the Tullys and all the time spent in the court at King's landing, Sansa seems like she would be a very recognizable figure, even in the Vale, brown hair or not. That the Lords of the Vale aren't happy with Littlefinger is quite obvious, so that some of them are conspiring behind his back is to be expected. So did he, as Corbray was bought to put the onus of guild on the Vale lords.

Honestly, I'm still just trying to wrap my head around why he's playing this game in the Vale at all. In terms of over all influence it would seem to me that sitting on the small council at King's Landing would have more influence than being de facto Lord of the Vale. The only two reasons I can come up with that would remotely make sense are, 1) that Littlefinger sees that the proverbial ship is sinking and is the first rat to flee from it. And 2) his infatuation with Sansa is so great, he took her away someplace secluded so he could have his way with her with no one the wiser. It could be a combination of both choices, as Lord of the Vale he'd have more options no matter who wins the war and that Sansa was just a side bonus. But one of the things that makes Littlefinger, Littlefinger is that you just never really know.

[Lee-Sensei]

@Blackfish Tully Yes. And if one of the people killed at the RW was a Royce you'd have a point. That guy Davos met on the Sister Islands said it pretty well. No one thinks the Red Wedding was a good thing, and if it was his son that was killed at the Twins he'd start killing Frey's too. But it wasn't his son. It wasn't his pain.

[juanml82]

1) He was given Harrenhall by the Lannisters for his serice to the Crown. Besides that, one of the LD's is fostering a Frey and House Royce is related to them. A massacre of the Frey's isn't likely to endear the Vale Lords to him.

2) That means no. There's no reason to believe that they were lovers.

3) And yet we know that they were going to remove him anyways.

4) He gathered he Vale Lords to get rid of LF. LF is more interested in SR's death. Yohn Royce is an honorable man and the idea that he cares more about Ned's daughter than Jon's son, doesn't sit well with me.

1) He was indeed given Harrenhall, that doesn't mean he remains a Lannister man, if he was ever one. The IT right now is contested between Tyrells and Lannisters and LF has given no indication that he's pursuing a pro-Lannister agenda. Yohn Royce said "Are you a Corbray or a Frey" so he has a bad opinion of the Freys (which doesn't mean he'd want to Castamere them). Lady Waynwood and Harry the Heir are another matter entirely, though, in that you're right.

2) I've just listed all the reasons to believe that they were lovers, which sustains Marillion confession that he killed her for love.

3) And what does that tell us about the honor of the Vale?

4) Why is LF interested in SR's death? The moment SR dies, Lady Waynwood becomes Lord Protector and LF's only titles in the Vale are as Lord of Sheep Shit. And why would anyone think Sansa is in danger?

This is an interesting thought. The biggest fallacy in Littlefinger's plan is his parading Alayne around as his niece. Between the Arryn family connection to the Tullys and all the time spent in the court at King's landing, Sansa seems like she would be a very recognizable figure, even in the Vale, brown hair or not. That the Lords of the Vale aren't happy with Littlefinger is quite obvious, so that some of them are conspiring behind his back is to be expected. So did he, as Corbray was bought to put the onus of guild on the Vale lords.

There are no pictures in Westeros, so only those who met Sansa in the past can recognize her. And even then, Sansa has just gone through puberty so she has changed a lot since she was last seen at Winterfell. In any case, I would think LF wants people to suspect she's Sansa. Otherwise, why are they going to believe she is Sansa when/if he reveals her?

[Lee-Sensei]

1) It means that he was working for the Lannisters. That means that Yohn Royce has a bad opinion of the RW, not that he'd be gung ho for massacring them for Robb.

2) But have we been given any evidence that people in Universe believe they were lovers?

3) That they they're loyal to the Arryns?

4) No she doesn't. The moment SR dies (After Harry and Sansa are married), LF sits about in the Vale and has strengthens his connection to the Arryns by having his "Bastard" as Lady of the Eyrie. Do you think they care more about Ned's daughter than Jon's son?

[juanml82]

1) It means that he was working for the Lannisters. That means that Yohn Royce has a bad opinion of the RW, not that he'd be gung ho for massacring them for Robb.

2) But have we been given any evidence that people in Universe believe they were lovers?

3) That they they're loyal to the Arryns?

4) No she doesn't. The moment SR dies (After Harry and Sansa are married), LF sits about in the Vale and has strengthens his connection to the Arryns by having his "Bastard" as Lady of the Eyrie. Do you think they care more about Ned's daughter than Jon's son?

1) Or for the Tyrells. Or he has abandoned ship already.

2) Marillion confesses he killed her for love and Nestor Royce seems to buy it. Besides, fill in the blanks. What would people say it's the reason why Lysa dressed a bard in jewels, defended him against serious accusations and gave him Jon Arryn's falcon? Because he sings pretty?

3) How is besieging the Arryns being loyal to the Arryns?

4) If SR dies after HtH and Alayne's wedding but before HtH becomes of age, legally Lady Waynwood is still Lord Protector - a 15 years old HtH would want to take matters into his own hands, though. And I don't think LF is missing the fact that such an arrangement means he relies on Sansa whispering in HtH ear, which can fail at a lot of places.

On the contrary, if SR lives until he's of age, LF is Lord Protector for something like seven years and, if he plays his cards right with SR (and he isn't, probably because he doesn't expect him to live), the Lord of the Vale will see him as a father, instead of a pesky father in law.

[Lee-Sensei]

1) No. It means the Lannisters.

2) You didn't give me an answer.

3) By removing LF so he could raise the heir of the Vale.

4) Before Robb was 16, Catelyn was nominally in charge. It didn't work out that way. Besides, he's 15 now. If we ever get to the wedding, there's a strong chance that he'll be 16.

5) That depends on how his first year goes. And it's infinitely better for him to hitch his daughter to the Lord of the Vale.

[juanml82]

1) No. It means the Lannisters.

2) You didn't give me an answer.

3) By removing LF so he could raise the heir of the Vale.

4) Before Robb was 16, Catelyn was nominally in charge. It didn't work out that way. Besides, he's 15 now. If we ever get to the wedding, there's a strong chance that he'll be 16.

5) That depends on how his first year goes. And it's infinitely better for him to hitch his daughter to the Lord of the Vale.

1) I'm astounded by the depth of your explanations and reasonings

2) Everything in the relationship between Lysa and Marillion indicate that people will think she's sleeping with him, if it's not actually true. Now, maybe you want to only accept things when they are textually described in the novels, in which case we can pretty much shut down this forum

3) Precisely. Legally, Lady Waynwood should be in charge. But since HtH is close to the age of majority, he might want to take matters into his own hands.

5) Are you trying to say that it's better for LF to try to influence Sansa to influence HtH to rule as he wants instead of ruling directly himself?

[Lee-Sensei]

^1) I didn't want to be condescending. I thought it was obvious that Tywin Lannister (the person who gave LF the Riverlands) isn't a Tyrell puppet. My mistake.

2) That means no.

3) No she shouldn't. Harry's 15 and SR's still alive. SR's probably going to live until Harry and Sansa are married already, by which time theres a good chance he'll be 16.

4) In the long run? It's absolutely better to have his "granddaughter" as the Lady of the Vale and grandchild as the heir then to have his stepson of about a month(?), as the Lord of the Vale.

[the conquering bastard 25]

For all the support LF has in the Vale does not matter its how long is it going to last.LF signed his death warrent when the LD were pushed into granting him one year leadership in the Vale.

if the Royce's don't know about Jon and his appointment by the time they gather to get LF out of the Vale they may very well learn shortly after. However I'm more of the mind the the LD gathered 6000troops together to be dispatched from the BG after their meeting with LF. Now where those troops are headed I don't know but If I had to guess I would say the Trident/West to help the Blackfish in his war. Did no one consider the reason the Blackfish sent Two men to go to the Two knights is because he need two men that could do more than repeat his words but also know how to speak for their friend and lord both men having been around blackfish and Edmure all their lives. Not to mention the sea route these men would have to take to get to the wall.

Maidenpoole sworn to house Tully.Moote its lord is a semi prisoner but his jailer is in Kl with his master Tyell. Thats their first stop but ask yourself what makes maidenpoole so important to the Trident cause? its a port that sits right on the bay of crabs which feeds into Trident which is made up of the Red green and blue folks meaning ships can go literally anywhere along the Trident faster and swifter than on horse. A big deal with winter come on.

Now where are the Trident lords going to find ships and where have see a possible ally along this sea route these two knights have too take and a certain fool in JSnows precense has made a prophecy about them? House Borrel whom even makes the connection between Jon snow being of the Vale a region his house is sworn to along with being of the North as Ned bastard.

But to get to the three sister's first they have to pass by Runestones seat of house Royce and the Port Gulltown. Now house Shett is in charge of the tower and I would think the light house. Sworn to not the Arryns and then there is Grafton but they are suppose to be for LF right? Then why does littlefinger have a hostage from Grafton? Oh I am sorry that was suppose to be ward. Runestones that sits on a harbor that feeds into a ricer that connects to Redfort of house Redfort another member of the Lords declarent that if they march there ,1000 men to Wickenden. They attend the wedding but that could just be for show. Also that same river that leads to Redfort splits and also can lead to Ironoaks seat of house Waynwood aren't they related to the Starks? So wouldn't HtH also be related to the Starks and also the Royce's know who Sans a is, with that being the case they also know she's been disinherited and the lords of the Vale have already shown how they feel about the Lannisters and Tyrion in particular Sansa's not so dead husband meaning she can't wed!

Next stop to the Wall White Harbor and well the fat man is up to his eyeballs in intrigue and Me thinks the convo with David was!shit. The Fat man is dying and by the time Davis shows up with Rickon too late or won't hold because White Harbor has thrown its support else where.

The lords of the Vale are not going to be used in LF schemes and now all the LD need is time and LF gave them that with a year of peace.

Their backing on the Lannister falling in power and given they may help with men and ships to undercut Littlefingers ability to call on outside help. With the lannisters removed Littlefingers lost part of his position because the Crown is on longer a protector and the Lords of the Vale may not feel attached to the Iron throne.Littlefingers is afraid of men ralling to Yrons side because if history means anything the the Royce's are next to inherit the Vale.

[the conquering bastard 25]

1) He was given Harrenhall by the Lannisters for his serice to the Crown. Besides that, one of the LD's is fostering a Frey and House Royce is related to them. A massacre of the Frey's isn't likely to endear the Vale Lords to him.

Except for the fact the first wife of Walder Frey was a!Royce meaning any Frey with a drop of Royce blood is first in lone to inherit the twins.

Any lord that weds on of the four unwed Royce frey girls stands a chance to rule to Twins which would be a boon for the Trident vale Northern alliance seeking as house Royce is related to house Stark.

Oh and by the way there is a grand Vale conspiracy and it involves to Riverlords. alsomits nice to see that your starting to make more sense and seeing reason. Glad to know that I dos not waste two of my life talking to a wall. Yes they know about Sansa and are going to work together with the Trident in Jons name.

2) That means no. There's no reason to believe that they were lovers.

3) And yet we know that they were going to remove him anyways.

4) He gathered he Vale Lords to get rid of LF. LF is more interested in SR's death. Yohn Royce is an honorable man and the idea that he cares more about Ned's daughter than Jon's son, doesn't sit well with me.

[Lee-Sensei]

1) There is no North, Vale and Riverlands alliance any more and the Starks have no power in the Vale or even the Riverlands any more.

2) In Jon Arryns name perhaps. Theirs nothing suggesting they care about Jon Snow.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Really you don't think so? As that's what I'm currently working on I'll have to disagree with you. I don't have all my note in front of me but if there is no allience the Patchface and is prophecy at Alys Karstarks wedding was way off the mark not like Patchface. Quote:under the sea,the mermen feast in Starfish soup and all the serving men are crabs.

Now first point who are the mermen? Manderly their sigil is an actual merman.

Next who could the Starfish represent? On the house Preston which has a purple and white star as its coat of arms or house Ruthermont which has 5 starfish on its coat of arms.

Last but not least the crabs are all serving men that could not be a reference to house Borrell sworn to the Vale and their ships? That couldn't be foreshadowing an alliance what on gods green earth could I have been talking about?

Nice to know that some things have not chnaged.

[Lee-Sensei]

The Sistermen are barely loyal to their own liegelords and House Borell is a minor House. Why would they be involved in some conspiracy for the sake of the Starks (who they hate for the Rape of the Three Sisters by the way).

[the conquering bastard 25]

For their freedom do u understand the meaning of subtext? They would support anyone that would free them of the yoke of Stark or Arryn. They certainly aren't going to be helping stannis as the last time he came north he made Borrell hang some of his friends.

Semi loyal or not they are still sworn to house Arryn via their liege lord.

For a house that's got invested lot of the North and Starks he certainly knew a lot about the inner workings of the Merman's court.

Also that's the best you got? I mean I can go get my notes actually ur the perfect person to test run this on. If I can turn you to my side I could turn anyone what do you say?

[Lee-Sensei]

And yet he didn't send Davos to LF and let him go on his way.

Supporting the Starks doesn't mean that they'll be freed from the Arryns either.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Yeah it does if the Royce's and others remove LF from office.

If you give me about an hour I'll first go over some things I've noticed to give me an idea that the Vale is not sitting on its hands and that they are working with or will be working with North and Trident to bring down the Lannister

[juanml82]

^1) I didn't want to be condescending. I thought it was obvious that Tywin Lannister (the person who gave LF the Riverlands) isn't a Tyrell puppet. My mistake.

2) That means no.

3) No she shouldn't. Harry's 15 and SR's still alive. SR's probably going to live until Harry and Sansa are married already, by which time theres a good chance he'll be 16.

4) In the long run? It's absolutely better to have his "granddaughter" as the Lady of the Vale and grandchild as the heir then to have his stepson of about a month(?), as the Lord of the Vale.

1) Tywin Lannister is also the person who gave Garlan Tyrell the seat of House Florent. In any case, you keep arguing, in extremely simplistic terms, that none would think Marillion and Lysa were lovers because the text doesn't explicitly say so - while at the same time you claim the Bronze Yohn wants to remove LF before LF is a Lannister man, despite the text never explicitly saying so.

4) Seriously? LF gets to rule for seven years vs. LF doesn't get to rule at all. This is rather simple: LF's best interested are best served if SR doesn't die in the immediate future and a marriage between Sansa and HtH doesn't secure him a position of power in the Vale.

The Bronze Yohn interests, on the other hand...

[juanml82]

Yeah it does if the Royce's and others remove LF from office.

If you give me about an hour I'll first go over some things I've noticed to give me an idea that the Vale is not sitting on its hands and that they are working with or will be working with North and Trident to bring down the Lannister

What Lannisters? Cersei? Lancel, who is know a Warrior's Son? Jaime, a captive of the BWB? Genna Lannister, soon to be married with the BWB as her guests?

Cersei will have to pull a miracle to make the Lannisters a force to be reckoned with in TWOW

[Lee-Sensei]

No. It doesn't as the Royces or Arryn's, whoevers running the Vale has never indicated that they'd give the Sistermen independence.

1) No. I claimed that Bronze Yohn wants to remove LF and raise SR because that's what's in the text.

2) Yes. Seriously. To the Lords of the Vale, getting his daughter to marry Harry and having Harry take over as heir of the Vale is better than having someone loosely connected to him end up ruling.