Petyr Baelish's support in the Vale

[juanml82]

No. It doesn't as the Royces or Arryn's, whoevers running the Vale has never indicated that they'd give the Sistermen independence.

1) No. I claimed that Bronze Yohn wants to remove LF and raise SR because that's what's in the text.

Sorry, I might have misunderstood the part where you pointed out that LF is a Lannister man as if it was something relevant. I also guessed, from your short sentences, that you meant that the Bronze Yohn believes LF to be a Lannister man and this is relevant for some reason. We readers know LF is LF's man and none else.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/121065-petyr-baelishs-support-in-the-vale/?p=6493047

2) Yes. Seriously. To the Lords of the Vale, getting his daughter to marry Harry and having Harry take over as heir of the Vale is better than having someone loosely connected to him end up ruling.

SR dies the day after the wedding and LF's fate is in the hands of Sansa and Harry the Heir, and I'm not sure Sansa will get to have a saying. By keeping SR alive, he buys himself seven years of undisputed rule in which he can set up the scenario for SR's sixteenth birthday: he can make sure SR seems him, and loves him, as a father. He can have a real trueborn daughter and betroth her to SR despite the age difference. He could have engaged Sansa/Alayne to SR as Lysa intended. He could have used those seven years to destroy the Bronze Yohn with none being the wiser.

By propping HtH, LF is giving up power.

[Ramsay Gimp]

SR dies the day after the wedding and LF's fate is in the hands of Sansa and Harry the Heir, and I'm not sure Sansa will get to have a saying. By keeping SR alive, he buys himself seven years of undisputed rule in which he can set up the scenario for SR's sixteenth birthday: he can make sure SR seems him, and loves him, as a father. He can have a real trueborn daughter and betroth her to SR despite the age difference. He could have engaged Sansa/Alayne to SR as Lysa intended. He could have used those seven years to destroy the Bronze Yohn with none being the wiser.

By propping HtH, LF is giving up power.

This is a good point. What do Sansa + Harry bring him that Sweetrobin does not? If the boy lives on, Littlefinger could be official overlord of the Trident, acting lord of the Vale, and raise the future lord of the Vale as a foster son.

Robin is much more likely to rubber-stamp Papa Petyr's actions than Harry (think Tommen and his seal). He could even be persuaded to support Sansa's claim to the North when he grew older

[Ramsay Gimp]

LF believes people can be bought. But the Lords of the Vale value honour and loyalty. (also, they're uptight as fuck, and he's pretty much a commoner). That's why they wanted to join the Wot5K in the first place, because they wanted to back up Robb in name of Ned. Honour and loyalty are things that LF doesn't understand and underestimates: he expects the worst of people, and he believes the worst is what they are. They are not. Just because they appear to have been bought, it means that they are indeed being bought.

Lyn Corbray would like a word. Maybe Ser Hugh too.

The lords of one region aren't any more honorable/loyal than another region. People say the same thing about the North, despite the actions of Bolton and Karstark, or the many rebellions in Northern history.

[Lee-Sensei]

^^SR doesn't see LF as a father or even an uncle in the books. In fact, he doesn't seem to like him at all. If he survived, and Baelish was still around I doubt he'd keep him around.

[the conquering bastard 25]

Lets start with the Lords Declarents.

First up Yron Royce.

For starters chief supporter of entering the war of 5 kings.

Brings 1,000 men to the Blood Gate to talk about getting Littlefingers from office. Yet Runestones Gulltown is on the Sea route that the Blackfish envoys would take on their way to the Wall.

Royce's son worked under the blackfish when he was a knight of the blood gate. So blackfish and Royce have a measure of each others temperments.

He knights HtH in a merles held at Runestones. (This helps Littlefingers plan so why knight him unless a knight is needed to lead the Vale levies but where and against whom? Also a winter campaign is dangerous in the best of times.

Once Walder Frey dies his Frey\Royce heir Edwyn gets the twins. This doesn't help the alliance but his daughter Perriane and her children wed into house Beesbury and High. While the Haighs had something to do with the Red Wedding but that's Rhaegar Frey and he's dead but Aegon Blood born turned out law Frey might be suitable choose and I wonder what outlaw group he's running with? Lady Stone heart maybe? Given they did attack very close to the Twin and the swung around to the Neck.

Also stevorns thrid wife was a Warywood and they have 4 children one whom married a Hardyng. Ummmm now how could that help? Their 3 children are unwed and what's the quickest way to seal an alliance? marriage pact anyone Also Borrell was looking for husband for his granddaughters.

However there is something to be said about Edwyn Frey he stopped Jamie Lannister from killing Tully why? His father killed Dacey Mormont and it doesn't appear he had a hand into the RW, so maybe he's working against his grandfather's interests, Walder wants Tully's head and his good brother Emmon Frey wants him dead so why stop it? Unless he is leaving wiggle room to be spared during the Purge of the Freys.

Moving along house Waynwood

Remotely related to the Starks.

Behind the Crakehall sons for the Crakehall title, which is in the West once again on the sea, and their being fostered in the Vale with no alliance with their kin in the Twins. Frey had 7 kids with his Crakehall slut and a number of them are in dangerous positions. Along with none of the Crakehall brothers aren't home they are all scattered some with Twins body or headed to Carry outlaw territory.

Sent 1000 men to BG. But the march home places the on the river that can take them from their respective castles to the Bay of Crabs which feeds into the Trident giving them mobility to hit anywhere in the vale.

House Belmont related to the Starks

Son served under BF and was replaced with Brune as capt of the guards. Possible a little personal as men will do things for their children that they wouldnt do for themselves Littlefingers words.

Question how was Belmont the first levies at BG given the location of Strong song? Unless they had been gathering or called long beforehand around the time that Lysa was killed maybe? Meaning the LD have been plotting for sometime before the questioning of the singer.

More support for yron, house coldwater is sworn to house Roycee.Holding a three river split and one of the rivers leads through the mountains and into the Bite. Given them the perfect house and castle to act as a liason pont between the sisters and White Harbor.

House Corbray its loyalties are split as of right now. The lord doesnt want to rock the boat but he also asked Lysa Arryn to take SR as a ward, possibly to use as a bargaining chip when the Vale entered into the War without her consent. While the younger corbray seems to be in LF pocket but given the Corbary seem to follow whom ever has the best to give and thats LF right now however I would like to point out that this marriage is having my BS radar going off.

With this marriage the Corbray coffers and ledgers are in the black, yet there was another plot about twenty yes ago where the blackfish was suppose to wed a redwyne and you know why because the redwyne fleet can travel anywhere and not rise an eyebrow because they are merchant ships welcome anywhere. Why couldn't those River run knight take what they learned from the plots of hosteen Tully and the lokesmand apply the situation to this one? hell The on all but mapped out how the trident and north could sack the rock and lannisport in one blow if only they had the ships and well they are getting creative. I don't think the in universe story and history would make so much about ships used in warfare along the trident for years of we were going to get to see some of that or its going to be done off page.

Patch face make an other prophecy when Jon is talking about leading the ranging to hard home himself.

Quote, under the sea the crows are white as snow... Are you going to learn this ranging? are you offering yourself ser? "I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming.

Sunderland is the mermaids their coat of arms is three women's heads with black hair under blue and green waves.

Seashorse is velaryon

And we sterlings are the seashells. Jeyne Westerling is important and her brothers body was never found. sansa mentions the wind as a ghost wolf. Works for Grey wind or for ghost.

House elseham is tied to house Waynwood by marriage

One question about the loyalty of house grafton and lynderly why does LF have wards sorry hostages if they are loyal to Littlfinger? Also given the positions both these familes have concerning holdings makes them very valuable allies willing or not.

Redfort has ties to Domimc Bolton and given his killer is wed to Ayra Stark, winter fell and soon the Dreadfort well their suppose to be honest and honorable.

Thats just a look at the different vale houses and their possible stance or how they might be motives for siding with Royce.

[Lee-Sensei]

^Is your point that Royce is loyal to the Starks and thus Jon?

[finger]

Let me add my two cents to the exchange.

The Lords the Vale can't be trusted because some think of themselves that they are kings' offspring and they are as high as the Arryns. Say Corbrays or Royces.

Notwithstanding, they can be bought. The questions are what LF has to offer them and why he should lead them. I concede the answers are not obvious, but we might as well try to find some.

LF is Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and he's holding the pretender to the North. So, he can offer plunder to those who help him to put things in order. We must remember that he has no army, so he's relying on the Vale's Lords to provide him with troops. But, will they'

The Lords are proud, and he has to show an honourable cause to follow their interests. Robert's Rebellion technically started when Jon Arryn refused to hand his wards Robert and Ned. I guess that LD will suddenly realize that that Lannisters did what mad Aerys failed to. Somewhat he'll find ner evidences that show how Cersei poisonned Arryn because he had find out that her children weren't Robert's but Jaime's, and then she saw that Robert had that accident, lied about Ned, and so on.

He's main problem will be showing that he has always been Robert's man, not Lannisters'.

Eta: type mismatches

[juanml82]

He's main problem will be showing that he has always been Robert's man, not Lannisters'.

Eta: type mismatches

Third party publicly presents (fake) evidence of the Lannisters poisoning Jon Arryn/the incest. Lord Baelish has a breakdown, claiming all he did he did it for Joffrey, whom he believed to be Robert's son (and can go as far as to claim that Jon Arryn told him to look after them in his deathbed, but that's a bit too melodramatic) and Cersei had deceived him. Claims he won't fail Jon (and Ned?) children as he failed Robert

[Ramsay's Penguins]

Are Gulltown Arryns an actual house, or just rich merchants?
We already have Shetts and Graftons in the city...

Corbrays, Waxleys, Lynderlys and Graftons are confirmed by Petyr, but that is friends, which might mean nothing.

The Anti-Lords-Declarent if you will. With Templeton, Belmore and Waynwood faulting.

And remember, the Royces have vassals. With minds of their own.

[juanml82]

Are Gulltown Arryns an actual house, or just rich merchants?

We already have Shetts and Graftons in the city...

The Graftons rule the city, even after siding with the Targs during Robert's Rebellion, so I guess either the Gulltown Arryns have a bit of land and are sworn to the Graftons or they are landless lords, also sworn to the Graftons, like the Pooles at Winterfell. Unlike the Pooles, they are rich, though and likely merchants as well as highborn.

[Grail King]

This is an interesting thought. The biggest fallacy in Littlefinger's plan is his parading Alayne around as his niece. Between the Arryn family connection to the Tullys and all the time spent in the court at King's landing, Sansa seems like she would be a very recognizable figure, even in the Vale, brown hair or not. That the Lords of the Vale aren't happy with Littlefinger is quite obvious, so that some of them are conspiring behind his back is to be expected. So did he, as Corbray was bought to put the onus of guild on the Vale lords.

Honestly, I'm still just trying to wrap my head around why he's playing this game in the Vale at all. In terms of over all influence it would seem to me that sitting on the small council at King's Landing would have more influence than being de facto Lord of the Vale. The only two reasons I can come up with that would remotely make sense are, 1) that Littlefinger sees that the proverbial ship is sinking and is the first rat to flee from it. And 2) his infatuation with Sansa is so great, he took her away someplace secluded so he could have his way with her with no one the wiser. It could be a combination of both choices, as Lord of the Vale he'd have more options no matter who wins the war and that Sansa was just a side bonus. But one of the things that makes Littlefinger, Littlefinger is that you just never really know.

You're getting the show mixed with the books here, she's his bastard daughter in the books.

[the conquering bastard 25]

My point twas to just set up what was the political situation with the Vale houses. I wasn't done I was just laying some of the foundation for my theory and guess what? I'm not that far off with the Royce's being loyal to Starks.

[Blackfish Tully]

What if Littlefinger's end game in the Vale is not to be ruler of the Vale but to have a ruler (either Robert or Harry) of the Vale who supports and evens bends the knee to him as Lord of Rivers and Vale. The Riverlords turned from the Iron Throne to support Robb Stark as King when the Iron Throne turned on them . What will happen when Sansa is revealed in the Vale ? Cersei will demand that Littlefinger send her to Kings Landing for execution similar to how Aerys demanded Jon Arryn turn over Ned Stark and Robert to him. What better way could Littlefinger earn the admiration and support of the Vale Lords and even the Riverlords by sending Kings Landing nothing but defiance in return.

[the conquering bastard 25]

The Vale or River lords would never been the knee to a man who was born with dirt under his nails, Littlefingers is one step above a commoner, which is why he needs powerful last names to help him further his own games and schemes. No marriage to Lysa without helping Lannister. No getting in a position to hurt Jon Arryn and such without his wife fighting for his appointment another powerful name Tully.

[Blackfish Tully]

The Vale or River lords would never been the knee to a man who was born with dirt under his nails, Littlefingers is one step above a commoner, which is why he needs powerful last names to help him further his own games and schemes. No marriage to Lysa without helping Lannister. No getting in a position to hurt Jon Arryn and such without his wife fighting for his appointment another powerful name Tully.

Littlefinger was born a Lord of the Vale , he was fostered by House Tully and served as Master of Coin and is now Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Lord of Harrenhall so he is several steps above a commoner. He also seems to be obscenely rich and has a lot of support in the merchant class.

Lords will bend the knee to whoever they feel has their best interests at heart and can convince them that he is the one that will give them what they want.

The Riverlords are ruled by the Freys and Lannisters at this point and they hate both families so if Littlefinger can free them from the Frey and Lannister alliance he will earn their support.

The Seven Kingdoms are falling apart , there is war up North , the Riverlands are a shamble, the Iron Born are attacking the Reach , the Golden Company is attacking the Stormlands and the Lannisters and Tyrells will end up tearing each other apart (not to mention Dany in Mereen) so what happens when Harry the Heir becomes ruler of the Vale? do you think he feels qualified to deal with all that's going on or will he need to advice and support of Littlefinger( the only one who seems to have a idea what the hell is going on)

Littlefinger started the War of Five Kings so he could move his plans forward and he will keep the chaos going so that he will seem like the only option for the Riverlords and Vale lords to maintain their power. I am not saying it will work but it's what i think he's trying to do.

[the conquering bastard 25]

So what he's born of a min on house sworn as vassals to another house that's sworn to house Arryn meaning low man on the totem pole in vale hierarchy.

The Freys have been lords of crossing for 600years and they are still considered upstarts so like in said LF being second generation nobility housesmlike Royce,Redfort,Corbray would never bend the knee to an upstart damn near commoner with no skills T arms, no arms to call, and no retainers od his own, hell his seat doesn't even have a name!

Come on your making my point why didnt Tully want lf anywhere near his daughters? Because he's not high born enough to wed a Tully of riverrun

Septon barth commoner

High septon now low born

Almost GM of Cideal was almost with a bastard and they were proud to show they weren't above promoting a bastard.

My point low horns do rise high its not unheard of but littlefinger is second gen nobility not gonna happen. The Royce's once claimed dominion over almost all of the Vale he or his kin aren't going to bend over and hand the reins to someone of LF ilk and I know his creds don't have to list them and I still stand by. Listen to WHR Maven said about LF Jamie's cersei even Ned, they don't think of him as a threat because he has no lordlyretainer and such hell this man is a pimp he owns whore houses and you think the likes of yron Royce is going to bend the knee no!

[Blackfish Tully]

So what he's born of a min on house sworn as vassals to another house that's sworn to house Arryn meaning low man on the totem pole in vale hierarchy.

The Freys have been lords of crossing for 600years and they are still considered upstarts so like in said LF being second generation nobility housesmlike Royce,Redfort,Corbray would never bend the knee to an upstart damn near commoner with no skills T arms, no arms to call, and no retainers od his own, hell his seat doesn't even have a name!

Come on your making my point why didnt Tully want lf anywhere near his daughters? Because he's not high born enough to wed a Tully of riverrun

Septon barth commoner

High septon now low born

Almost GM of Cideal was almost with a bastard and they were proud to show they weren't above promoting a bastard.

My point low horns do rise high its not unheard of but littlefinger is second gen nobility not gonna happen. The Royce's once claimed dominion over almost all of the Vale he or his kin aren't going to bend over and hand the reins to someone of LF ilk and I know his creds don't have to list them and I still stand by. Listen to WHR Maven said about LF Jamie's cersei even Ned, they don't think of him as a threat because he has no lordlyretainer and such hell this man is a pimp he owns whore houses and you think the likes of yron Royce is going to bend the knee no!

What a surprise , somebody who underestimates Littlefinger. You are falling into the same trap that the characters in ASOIAF are in. They think that Littlefinger not a threat because of his low birth . How did that work out for Ned Stark, Tyrion , Jon Arryn etc..

The Lords of the Vale will bend their knees to Harry or Robert so all Littlefinger has to do is get Harry or Robert to bend the knee to him.

If I told you after the first book that Littlefinger would become the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands , Lord Protector of the Vale and Lord of Harrenhall you would have posted a very similar post to the one you just posted. Now that he has those titles why is it so hard to believe that he can go even higher?

[Lee-Sensei]

The Frey's have been a significant House for 600 years and are still seen as upstarts. The Lords of the North, Vale and Riverlands aren't going to bend the knee to him.

[Blackfish Tully]

The Frey's have been a significant House for 600 years and are still seen as upstarts. The Lords of the North, Vale and Riverlands aren't going to bend the knee to him.

If you are Harry the Heir and you have just become Lord of the Vale and your options are bending the knee to Cersie Lannister (who you think murdered Jon Arryn ) or Littlefinger who offers you Sansa Stark and a chance to join with the Riverlands against the Iron Throne what would you do?

[Colonel Green]

If you are Harry the Heir and you have just become Lord of the Vale and your options are bending the knee to Cersie Lannister (who you think murdered Jon Arryn ) or Littlefinger who offers you Sansa Stark and a chance to join with the Riverlands against the Iron Throne what would you do?

Seeing as it is me, Harry the Heir, who possess 100% of the military that Littlefinger would need to "give" me the Riverlands, that's really very little leverage. I could just declare myself King of Mountain and Vale, and given that everything is going completey to hell in the rest of Westeros, I'd have a pretty grand shot at keeping it.

This doesn't mean I might not be interested in making myself king of the Riverlands and the North too, but there's zero incentive to help Littlefinger take that title himself.

One of the things GRRM has said repeated in interviews is that historically, class mattered a lot. Littlefinger is a few generations away from a hedge knight, of no background that any noble in the Seven Kingdoms would ever contemplate making king. He can be Hand of the King (like Septon Barth was, for instance), or hold any number of appointed offices in service of the real ruler, but he is not someone that would ever become king himself.