Ukraine 15 - Minsk II and other disappointing sequels

[The Fallen]

By the way, read about the retreat out of Debaltseve. Too bad for Ukraine. This connects the two rebel-held regions, making tougher for Ukraine to ever get them back.

It seems like the rebels are also after Mariupol.

[Horza]

By the way, read about the retreat out of Debaltseve. Too bad for Ukraine. This connects the two rebel-held regions, making tougher for Ukraine to ever get them back.

It seems like the rebels are also after Mariupol.

August made it clear that there wasn't a military route to ending the rebellion. When things went south for the DNR/LNR Russia pulled out some stops, cutting off Ukrainian advance columns and upping rebel fire-power. Momentum around key points like Savur-Mogila was blunted and hundreds of soldiers were killed or captured in the Ilovaisk and Amrosiivka pockets. Debaltseve is strategically important, but it was also one of the few gains left after Minsk 1.

[ElizabethB.]

Basically Merkel's and Hollande's ceasefires have meant that the Army of Russian Federation gets a chance to invade new territories.

[Biglose]

And without the ceasefire the exact same result would have happend. Probably a bit more bloody.

[ElizabethB.]

And exactly according to Kremlin's master-plan, maximal gain and no pain (for them).

The civilian population left behind is certainly feeling the pain.

[Arakan]

It would actually be fairly entertaining to read a pseudo defense of Arakan and fixit's position that Nuland and her magic cookies deposed Yanukovich.

What is that with your Obsession with cookies?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Arakan,

Should Ukraine just be re-incorporated into Russia proper, why or why not?

[Arakan]

Very insightful post.

If I'm not mistaken, Crimea was held by the Ottoman Empire before Russia got it through war. So the idea of it being historically Russia's doesn't hold up.

With regards to Crimea and eastern Ukraine, arguing that it belonged to Russia and then the Soviet Union and thus should revert back to them is like saying that Texas once belonged to Mexico and therefore should revert back to it. Even though Texas has been with the U.S. longer than Crimea had belonged to Ukraine, I think the principle is the same.

First, the Ottoman Empire itself was a brutal conqueror, oppressing large parts of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe for centuries. Thankfully they got their ass kicked in 1683.

And you really think it's ok when a Soviet dictator makes a present and this is all totally cool?

I have an idea for you and some others in this Thread who fight for Justice in the world: let's vote. Let's make a referendum and let the people decide. Why are so many against democracy :)?

Btw because I am portraied as a Putin-lover, let's get this straight: I don't care about Putin and I didnt care about Ukraine or Crimea or whatever. But I do care about my country and its vital interests. Antagonizing Russia because of Ukraine is not in the interest of my country. Maybe I sound like heartless but I am not. The Ukrainian people have been played with, unfortunately. Like telling them their country will join the EU. this will not happen. Point.

Ukraine is in many regards a failed state, even before 2013/14. it is corrupt and dominated by a criminal elite. I wish them the best but the biggest crime has been to tell them that they just have to get rid of Yanukovich and as soon as this happens they can join the Land of milk and honey.

Sorry, will not happen.

For the people in Ukraine I hope with all my heart that there will be peace. Criminals like Yanukovich, Timoshenko or Poroshenko are shamelessy filling their pockets while the average Ukrainian doesnt know what to eat tomorrow.

Unless there is a real revolution in Ukraine (unfortunately Maidan was hijacked by the elite --> Poroshenko, Timoshenko etc), this country is lost beyond hope.

Russia is a shitty neighbor? I believe so. But with countries the same applies as with family. You cannot choose but have to live with them. Make the best of it. Consolidate, get rid of your corrupt elite and start building up your country. This is the first step. And don't let yourself be sacrified for the ego and interests of the elite, be it BUSH POROSHENKO or PUTIN!

[Arakan]

Arakan,

Should Ukraine just be re-incorporated into Russia proper, why or why not?

Dear Scot,

should the US be part of the British Empire, why or why not?

[Suttree]

I have an idea for you and some others in this Thread who fight for Justice in the world: let's vote. Let's make a referendum and let the people decide. Why are so many against democracy :)?

Dear Arakan,

How did that work out in Crimea?

Within a day after the invasion of Crimea on February 28, in a closed session of the Crimean parliament and under Russian military ‘protection,’ Sergey Aksyonov was annointed as the head of the new government. Yet just four years before, his pro-Russian party ‘Russian Unity’ had won only 4% of the votes in Crimean parliamentary elections. To cover this with the fig leaf of political sanction, a popular referendum was hurriedly staged only 18 days after Putin’s penetration of the province. It was as close a resemblance to a political “shot-gun marriage” as recent history offers – and as the following evidence reflects....

Let’s look first at the wording of the two questions with which Crimean voters were presented:

1. “Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as part of the Russian Federation?”

“Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as part of Ukraine?”

Both questions meant in practice the violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity. For example, the 1992 constitution (cited in question #2) was originally adopted that year by a Crimean parliament that had declared independence from both Russia and Ukraine. But it was supplanted by another constitution in 1995, which was frequently amended until 1999, when the primacy of the Ukrainian parliament over the Crimean constitution was firmly established. In other words, question #2 - reverting to a defunct constitution - did not offer Crimean voters a clear option to affirm Ukrainian sovereignty.

Although the referendum was widely boycotted by most of the province’s native Tatar population and by pro-Ukraine voters, according to many reports, the reported outcome of the referendum was that 96.8% of ballots had been cast for the first question, with voter turn-out declared to be 83%. This approaches the famous level of support achieved by Saddam Hussein when he first stood for election as president of Iraq in 1995; a reported 99.96% of voters embraced him.

[Arakan]

@Sutree:

you are smarter than that.

I already told multiple times: make a real democratic referendum under UN or OSCE or EU supervisory.

Are you against such a democratic decision making process? I have Kosovo or Scotland in mind. Let the people decide after a sufficiently long thought process.

[ElizabethB.]

Btw because I am portraied as a Putin-lover, let's get this straight: I don't care about Putin and I didnt care about Ukraine or Crimea or whatever. But I do care about my country and its vital interests. Antagonizing Russia because of Ukraine is not in the interest of my country.

So what are the "interests of your country"?

[ElizabethB.]

@Sutree:

you are smarter than that.

I already told multiple times: make a real democratic referendum under UN or OSCE or EU supervisory.

Are you against such a democratic decision making process? I have Kosovo or Scotland in mind. Let the people decide after a sufficiently long thought process.

... Kosovo or Scotland don't compare to this.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Arakan,

It shouldn't. And Britian shouldn't land unmarked troops on Long Island hold a BS "referendum" showing Long Islanders want to be part of the UK and claim their invasion and conquest is all hunky dory. Should Ukraine be re-incorporated into the Russian Federation if it is the interest of Russia to conqure and re-incorporate Ukraine?

[Arakan]

So what are the "interests of your country"?

As I am not a representative of the government, I can only deduce: good international relations and stability. Peace in the world and open trade lines.

People who trade with each other don't fight each other. I for sure am glad that I don't live in Russia (or China or Saudi Arabia or ...) but I don't demonize those countries as long as they keep to themselves.

Yes, Russia broke those rules with the Crimea anexation. They will be punished for it. But I don't believe in antagonizing other countries or cold war bullshit. We are living in a globalized world whether you like it or not and especially a country like Germany needs open trade lines. Russia was actually quite a reliable partner in the past and hopefully we can come back to a functioning business relationship. Nothing more but nothing less.

To put it short: I believe in building bridges not burning them.

I know that in some anglo-american news media, Merkel gets ridiculed but I for one think she makes a good job, given the contstraints she has to face. Calm, content-oriented policy grounded in political reality of what is feasible and what not.

Ideological policy (like by many Republicans or Putin for that matter) is an anachronism and doesnt reflect 21st century reality.

[Suttree]

@Sutree:

you are smarter than that.

I already told multiple times: make a real democratic referendum under UN or OSCE or EU supervisory.

Perhaps you care to outline a realistic version of events that would result in the above.

[ElizabethB.]

As I am not a representative of the government, I can only deduce: good international relations and stability. Peace in the world and open trade lines.

People who trade with each other don't fight each other. I for sure am glad that I don't live in Russia (or China or Saudi Arabia or ...) but I don't demonize those countries as long as they keep to themselves.

Yes, Russia broke those rules with the Crimea anexation. They will be punished for it. But I don't believe in antagonizing other countries or cold war bullshit. We are living in a globalized world whether you like it or not and especially a country like Germany needs open trade lines. Russia was actually quite a reliable partner in the past and hopefully we can come back to a functioning business relationship. Nothing more but nothing less.

To put it short: I believe in building bridges not burning them.

I know that in some anglo-american news media, Merkel gets ridiculed but I for one think she makes a good job, given the contstraints she has to face. Calm, content-oriented policy grounded in political reality of what is feasible and what not.

Ideological policy (like by many Republicans or Putin for that matter) is an anachronism and doesnt reflect 21st century reality.

How do you think Russia will 'be punished'?

Because right now Merkel (and the West) isn't telling the Ukrainians to roll over and die, but to roll over and die silently, to not bother "functional business relationships."

[Biglose]

@ElizabethB.

Because right now Merkel (and the West) isn't telling the Ukrainians to roll over and die, but to roll over and die silently, to not bother "functional business relationships."

The point is, the only tool Merkel has is the stare and economical sanctions. Lets be honest about that. The Bundeswehr could not even annex Luxemburg right now.

There is at this point hardly a person who gets more laughter and ridecule in Germany than Ushi-von-der-Leyen the current defence minister of germany. The nicer things consist of people asking if germany is planning to use UBER to deploy troops in the near future and the sorts.

At the mater of Arakan: Thats where the left and the right meets in germany but also to some extend across all of europe.

It startet with the anti-war movement (in germany) now it reaches up to right wing extremists.

[Arakan]

@ElizabethB.

The point is, the only tool Merkel has is the stare and economical sanctions. Lets be honest about that. The Bundeswehr could not even annex Luxemburg right now.

There is at this point hardly a person who gets more laughter and ridecule in Germany than Ushi-von-der-Leyen the current defence minister of germany. The nicer things consist of people asking if germany is planning to use UBER to deploy troops in the near future and the sorts.

At the mater of Arakan: Thats where the left and the right meets in germany but also to some extend across all of europe.

It startet with the anti-war movement (in germany) now it reaches up to right wing extremists.

Are you calling me a rightwing extremist?

[Arakan]

How do you think Russia will 'be punished'?

Because right now Merkel (and the West) isn't telling the Ukrainians to roll over and die, but to roll over and die silently, to not bother "functional business relationships."

Let me ask you a question: is it the fault of the EU that Ukraine has been a dysfunctional state for over 20 years now? Is it our fault that Ukraine has been ruled and plundered by a corrupt elite?

What do you actually expect of the EU? Maybe Ukraine should start to clean its house first? Why did the people vote a dubious chocolate magnate into power who made empty promises like EU membership?

What do you expect from the EU to do more? Sanctions have been imposed, Germany's export to Russia decreased by -25% IIRC due to the sanctions. People like Mr Cameron make big speeches but the UK so far did nothing which would REALLY hurt its business relationship with Russia. They have a leverage as well but this would hurt the City and the City Boys wont like it (not to mention the London real estate market). Oh and the same applies to the US, just google the continued partnership in oil & gas exploration (Exxon Mobil as example).

Germany does quite alot the help the Ukraine but in contrast to some UK/US politicians, Merkel doesnt brag about how big her balls are.