Ukraine 15 - Minsk II and other disappointing sequels

[Assar]

The separatists were on the verge of losing when Russia stepped in. They are supplying tanks, artillery, air defense units etc.

Analysis on artillery strikes against ukrainian forces https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/02/17/origin-of-artillery-attacks/

No way the separatists will honour any agreement, they are winning, they recieve substantial military aid from Russia. Who would stop them?

[Shryke]

I find it extremely amusing that people are using the girl-in-a-short-skirt metaphor to describe Russia feeling threatened by NATO expansion, yet they insist on turning the metaphor around. For you see, Ukraine is not the girl in a short skirt, Russia is. And NATO is the burly dude catcalling and taunting her from across the street. He used to do it from two streets away, but now he's moving closer.

What possible reason would Russia have to fear NATO, an organisation that was created for the sole purpose of opposing it...

So I think that about settles that Nestor.

It does not have to be stated directly that Russia is a victim. But, by making a rather general statement like "Russia fears NATO expansion" and obfuscating the first and foremost consequences of that expansion, it gives the impression that Russia has some legitimate grievances and they are struggling to prevent Operation Barbarossa Round Two.

See Solmyr's point above as a case in point. By making a similar general point, that Russia fears NATO because the latter was created to oppose Russia, Solmyr can attempt to depict Russia as a "girl in a short skirt".

If he were to say that NATO was created to block Soviet expansionism and the expansion of NATO is thwarting similar imperial ambitions of current Russia, then it would be much harder to claim that Russia is a "girl in a short skirt".

Although I wonder why the desires of Russia's neighbours to be protected against Russian bullying never enters the picture...

Exactly.

[The Fallen]

Interesting article regarding the Ukrainian army being pushed back after they had almost overrun the rebels last summer. A group of investigative journalists were able to use videos and satellite images to determine where the rocket fire came from; inside Russian territory.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/russia-shelled-ukrainians-from-within-its-own-territory-says-study

[Alarich]

Are you insinuating that the Ukrainian conflict and the annexation of Crimea was all part of Putin's plan to stop paying rent in Sevastopol?

No, but why does Putin declare Crimea as "holy part of Russia" when in fact, Crimea has never been a culturally important part of Russias heritage (unlike Kiev for example)? The Russification of the peninsula through ethnic cleansing and resettlement is only 70 years ago. Crimea, through its geographical location, is the key to the Black sea. If you want a secure warm water port to control the major shipping routes of the black sea, it's a prime location and that's why Catherine broke the treaty that guaranteed Crimean Independence and annexed it 230 years ago and that's why Russia broke the treaty that guranteed Ukrainian Independence and took it now.

No, Crimea is "holy Russian land" because it has for centuries been one of the most important target and achievements of Russian imperialism. It's importance it's probably second only to their holy grail - control of Constantinople and the Dardanelles, thankfully out of reach for Russia.

[ElizabethB.]

Crimea as a holy part of Russia is obviously propaganda. Apparently there are people who believe it, or want to believe it.

[Lummel]

Crimea as a holy part of Russia is not a completely absurd claim - it has been suggested that Vladimir (or Volodymyr if you are so inclined) was baptized in the crimea, the ever reliable Wikipeadia states this theory as a fact, and since Vladimir (who was the scion of a Viking dynasty) then made Christianity the official religion of Kievan Rus' (after experimenting with setting up a multi-god pagan cult in Kiev which turned out to be much less fun than it sounds - the human sacrifice lottery really put a lot of people off), you could make that claim.

On the other hand since Kievan Rus' is as much the ancestor of Ukrainian nationhood (arguably more so) as of Russian nationhood it is not an argument that advances the discussion in any useful direction.

[The Iceman of the North]

That's a good story. It reminds me it's time for Norway to claim England as our Holy Land. The Norwegian King who is most to blame for the Christening of Norway was baptised on the Scilly Island, so it's obvious that all of England does belong to us now.

[ElizabethB.]

Oh, I'm sure there was a mesoliti-shitean era when the whole world belonged to Russia. So open up your mouths wider and swallow your bread, eastern Europ-, cough, Western Russians!

[jurble]

Putin politely suggests Ukrainian soldiers surrender town. (Merely as a concerned third-party, of course).

[Horza]

Looks like a withdrawal is on:

ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine (AP) — Government forces were seen retreating from the battlefield Wednesday as Russia-backed rebels continued their onslaught on the railroad junction of Debaltseve, the epicenter of fighting between the separatist and government troops in eastern Ukraine.

Fierce fighting around the town linking the two major separatist cities of Donetsk and Luhansk rages on despite a cease-fire deal brokered by European leaders which went into effect on Sunday and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry scheduled for Tuesday. Hundreds if not thousands of Ukrainian troops are believe to be trapped in Debaltseve, surrounded by advancing rebel troops.

Associated Press reporters on the road to the government-controlled town of Artemivsk saw several dozen Ukrainian troops retreating with their weapons from Debaltseve on Wednesday morning. Covered in dirt and looking tired, some of them were driving to Artemivsk in trucks while several other men, unshaven and visibly upset, were on foot. Angry that they had not received any reinforcement from the government, they said they had to retreat and walk for a whole day.

[Serious Callers Only]

http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/17-february-russian-ltgeneral-alexander-lentsov-himself-is?ll=48.33366;38.40666&zoom=15

;)

[Horza]

Chocolate Man is saying 80% of forces have been evacuated. He is going to Donbas to - ahem - speak to people a little closer to the situation on the ground.

[ElizabethB.]

This shite didn't start in Crimea and it wont stop to East-Ukraine, not as long as the West gives Russia a silent approval by looking the other way.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

So I think that about settles that Nestor.

That doesn't settle anything. I've never adopted or defended Solmyr's views or posts in this thread.

[The Fallen]

Crimea as a holy part of Russia is not a completely absurd claim - it has been suggested that Vladimir (or Volodymyr if you are so inclined) was baptized in the crimea, the ever reliable Wikipeadia states this theory as a fact, and since Vladimir (who was the scion of a Viking dynasty) then made Christianity the official religion of Kievan Rus' (after experimenting with setting up a multi-god pagan cult in Kiev which turned out to be much less fun than it sounds - the human sacrifice lottery really put a lot of people off), you could make that claim.

On the other hand since Kievan Rus' is as much the ancestor of Ukrainian nationhood (arguably more so) as of Russian nationhood it is not an argument that advances the discussion in any useful direction.

Good post.

Kievan Rus, based in Kiev, was the predecessor to Ukraine. Russia, at best, is an offshoot of that kingdom and came to dominance after the Kievan Rus kingdom had fallen.

Losing Debaltseve is huge for Ukraine. If it comes to pass.

[Horza]

Losing Debaltseve is huge for Ukraine. If it comes to pass.

Happened yesterday.

[The Fallen]

Happened yesterday.

OK. I've just been going by you guys' posts, I haven't read anything yet. It'll be the first thing I read when I get home. I'm in the U.S..

[jurble]

Kievan Rus, based in Kiev, was the predecessor to Ukraine. Russia, at best, is an offshoot of that kingdom

Kievan Rus' became incredibly decentralized before the Mongol invasion. The Mongols, however, only became suzerain, they did not interfere with local power structures in the areas they ruled. The principality/dukedom of Vladimir persisted under Mongol rule, the princes of Moscow were a branch of Vladimir royalty.

Kiev and the area of Ukraine, on the other hand, never fell under Mongol domination (the southern portion of modern Ukraine isn't the historical region of Ukraine, hence the Russians claiming it in fact belongs to them) - it was conquered by Poland-Lithuania who actually did replace local nobility and attempt to Polonize the area. In this respect, there is no political continuity between Kievan Rus' and Ukraine. The Polish administration of Ukraine was more hands-on than the Mongol administration of Russia.

But, in Russia, there is political continuity from Kievan Rus' to Russia. Vladimir was a subunit (de facto independent, like all the Rus' cities) of Kievan' Rus. Moscow was part of Vladimir (nominally, eventually and then the Mongols eventually granted Moscow independence from the legal suzerainty of Vladimir).

However, that political continuity from Kievan Rus' doesn't give Russia the right to invade Ukraine, destabilize it, and carve up its territory.

[Horza]

I don't think the Kremlin really buys into it, Putin likes his historical analogies but he's never been about the ethno-nationalist stuff. This is more about his reading of the last fifteen years rather than the last thousand.

[The Fallen]

Kievan Rus' became incredibly decentralized before the Mongol invasion. The Mongols, however, only became suzerain, they did not interfere with local power structures in the areas they ruled. The principality/dukedom of Vladimir persisted under Mongol rule, the princes of Moscow were a branch of Vladimir royalty.

Kiev and the area of Ukraine, on the other hand, never fell under Mongol domination (the southern portion of modern Ukraine isn't the historical region of Ukraine, hence the Russians claiming it in fact belongs to them) - it was conquered by Poland-Lithuania who actually did replace local nobility and attempt to Polonize the area. In this respect, there is no political continuity between Kievan Rus' and Ukraine. The Polish administration of Ukraine was more hands-on than the Mongol administration of Russia.

But, in Russia, there is political continuity from Kievan Rus' to Russia. Vladimir was a subunit (de facto independent, like all the Rus' cities) of Kievan' Rus. Moscow was part of Vladimir (nominally, eventually and then the Mongols eventually granted Moscow independence from the legal suzerainty of Vladimir).

However, that political continuity from Kievan Rus' doesn't give Russia the right to invade Ukraine, destabilize it, and carve up its territory.

Very insightful post.

If I'm not mistaken, Crimea was held by the Ottoman Empire before Russia got it through war. So the idea of it being historically Russia's doesn't hold up.

With regards to Crimea and eastern Ukraine, arguing that it belonged to Russia and then the Soviet Union and thus should revert back to them is like saying that Texas once belonged to Mexico and therefore should revert back to it. Even though Texas has been with the U.S. longer than Crimea had belonged to Ukraine, I think the principle is the same.